When and why threats go undetected: Impacts of event rate and shift length on threat detection accuracy during airport baggage screening

Objective: We aimed to assess the impact of task demands and individual characteristics on threat detection in baggage screeners. Background: Airport security staff work under time constraints to ensure optimal threat detection. Understanding the impact of individual characteristics and task demands on performance is vital to ensure accurate threat detection. Method: We examined threat detection in baggage screeners as a function of event rate (i.e., number of bags per minute) and time on task across 4 months. We measured performance in terms of the accuracy of detection of Fictitious Threat Items (FTIs) randomly superimposed on X-ray images of real passenger bags. Results: Analyses of the percentage of correct FTI identifications (hits) show that longer shifts with high baggage throughput result in worse threat detection. Importantly, these significant performance decrements emerge within the first 10 min of these busy screening shifts only. Conclusion: Longer shift lengths, especially when combined with high baggage throughput, increase the likelihood that threats go undetected. Application: Shorter shift rotations, although perhaps difficult to implement during busy screening periods, would ensure more consistently high vigilance in baggage screeners and, therefore, optimal threat detection and passenger safety.

Genetic variation of fish parasite populations in historically connected habitats: undetected habitat fragmentation effect on populations of the nematode Procamallanus fulvidraconis in the catfish Pelteobagrus fulvidraco

Habitat fragmentation may have some significant effects on population genetic structure because geographic distance and physical barriers may impede gene flow between populations. In this study, we investigated whether recent habitat fragmentation affected genetic structure and diversity of populations of the nematode Procamallanus fulvidraconis in the yellowhead catfish, Pelteobagrus fin't4draco. The nematode was collected from 12 localities in 7 floodplain lakes of the Yangtze River. Using I I intersirnple sequence repeat markers, analysis of molecular variance showed that genetic diversity occurred mainly within populations (70.26%). Expected heterozygosity (He) of P. fulvidraconis was barely different between connected (0.2105) and unconnected lakes (0.2083). Population subdivision (Fst) between connected lakes (0.2177) was higher than in unconnected lakes (0. 1676). However, the connected and unconnected lakes did not Cluster into 2 clades. A Mantel test revealed significant positive correlation between genetic and geographic distances (R = 0.5335, P < 0.01). These results suggest that habitat fragmentation did not cause genetic differentiation among populations or a reduction of diversity in isolated populations of P. fulvidraconis. At least 2 factors may increase the dispersal range of the nematode, i.e., flash flooding in summer and other species of fish that may serve as the definitive hosts. Moreover, lake fragmentation is probably a recent process; population size of the nematode in these lakes is large enough to maintain Population structure.

Dysnatraemias in the emergency room: Undetected, untreated, unknown?

Hypo- and hypernatraemia are the most common electrolyte disorders in hospitalized patients and have been associated with increased mortality. However, data on the prevalence of dysnatraemias in the emergency room and the characteristics of patients presenting with them are rare.

Batch Verification of Validity of Bids in Homomorphic E-auction

Bid opening in e-auction is efficient when a homomorphic secret sharing function is employed to seal the bids and homomorphic secret reconstruction is employed to open the bids. However, this high efficiency is based on an assumption: the bids are valid (e.g., within a special range). An undetected invalid bid can compromise correctness and fairness of the auction. Unfortunately, validity verification of the bids is ignored in the auction schemes employing homomorphic secret sharing (called homomorphic auction in this paper). In this paper, an attack against the homomorphic auction in the absence of bid validity check is presented and a necessary bid validity check mechanism is proposed. Then a batch cryptographic technique is introduced and applied to improve the efficiency of bid validity check.

Electronic tendering: an industry perspective

The construction industry is categorised as being an information-intensive industry and described as one of the most important industries in any developed country, facing a period of rapid and unparalleled change (Industry Science Resources 1999) (Love P.E.D., Tucker S.N. et al. 1996). Project communications are becoming increasingly complex, with a growing need and fundamental drive to collaborate electronically at project level and beyond (Olesen K. and Myers M.D. 1999; Thorpe T. and Mead S. 2001; CITE 2003). Yet, the industry is also identified as having a considerable lack of knowledge and awareness about innovative information and communication technology (ICT) and web-based communication processes, systems and solutions which may prove beneficial in the procurement, delivery and life cycle of projects (NSW Government 1998; Kajewski S. and Weippert A. 2000). The Internet has debatably revolutionised the way in which information is stored, exchanged and viewed, opening new avenues for business, which only a decade ago were deemed almost inconceivable (DCITA 1998; IIB 2002). In an attempt to put these ‘new avenues of business’ into perspective, this report provides an overall ‘snapshot’ of current public and private construction industry sector opportunities and practices in the implementation and application of web-based ICT tools, systems and processes (e-Uptake). Research found that even with a reserved uptake, the construction industry and its participating organisations are making concerted efforts (fortunately with positive results) in taking up innovative forms of doing business via the internet, including e-Tendering (making it possible to manage the entire tender letting process electronically and online) (Anumba C.J. and Ruikar K. 2002; ITCBP 2003). Furthermore, Government (often a key client within the construction industry),and with its increased tendency to transact its business electronically, undoubtedly has an effect on how various private industry consultants, contractors, suppliers, etc. do business (Murray M. 2003) – by offering a wide range of (current and anticipated) e-facilities / services, including e-Tendering (Ecommerce 2002). Overall, doing business electronically is found to have a profound impact on the way today’s construction businesses operate - streamlining existing processes, with the growth in innovative tools, such as e-Tender, offering the construction industry new responsibilities and opportunities for all parties involved (ITCBP 2003). It is therefore important that these opportunities should be accessible to as many construction industry businesses as possible (The Construction Confederation 2001). Historically, there is a considerable exchange of information between various parties during a tendering process, where accuracy and efficiency of documentation is critical. Traditionally this process is either paper-based (involving large volumes of supporting tender documentation), or via a number of stand-alone, non-compatible computer systems, usually costly to both the client and contractor. As such, having a standard electronic exchange format that allows all parties involved in an electronic tender process to access one system only via the Internet, saves both time and money, eliminates transcription errors and increases speed of bid analysis (The Construction Confederation 2001). Supporting this research project’s aims and objectives, researchers set to determine today’s construction industry ‘current state-of-play’ in relation to e-Tendering opportunities. The report also provides brief introductions to several Australian and International e-Tender systems identified during this investigation. e-Tendering, in its simplest form, is described as the electronic publishing, communicating, accessing, receiving and submitting of all tender related information and documentation via the internet, thereby replacing the traditional paper-based tender processes, and achieving a more efficient and effective business process for all parties involved (NT Governement 2000; NT Government 2000; NSW Department of Commerce 2003; NSW Government 2003). Although most of the e-Tender websites investigated at the time, maintain their tendering processes and capabilities are ‘electronic’, research shows these ‘eTendering’ systems vary from being reasonably advanced to more ‘basic’ electronic tender notification and archiving services for various industry sectors. Research also indicates an e-Tender system should have a number of basic features and capabilities, including: • All tender documentation to be distributed via a secure web-based tender system – thereby avoiding the need for collating paperwork and couriers. • The client/purchaser should be able to upload a notice and/or invitation to tender onto the system. • Notification is sent out electronically (usually via email) for suppliers to download the information and return their responses electronically (online). • During the tender period, updates and queries are exchanged through the same e-Tender system. • The client/purchaser should only be able to access the tenders after the deadline has passed. • All tender related information is held in a central database, which should be easily searchable and fully audited, with all activities recorded. • It is essential that tender documents are not read or submitted by unauthorised parties. • Users of the e-Tender system are to be properly identified and registered via controlled access. In simple terms, security has to be as good as if not better than a manual tender process. Data is to be encrypted and users authenticated by means such as digital signatures, electronic certificates or smartcards. • All parties must be assured that no 'undetected' alterations can be made to any tender. • The tenderer should be able to amend the bid right up to the deadline – whilst the client/purchaser cannot obtain access until the submission deadline has passed. • The e-Tender system may also include features such as a database of service providers with spreadsheet-based pricing schedules, which can make it easier for a potential tenderer to electronically prepare and analyse a tender. Research indicates the efficiency of an e-Tender process is well supported internationally, with a significant number, yet similar, e-Tender benefits identified during this investigation. Both construction industry and Government participants generally agree that the implementation of an automated e-Tendering process or system enhances the overall quality, timeliness and cost-effectiveness of a tender process, and provides a more streamlined method of receiving, managing, and submitting tender documents than the traditional paper-based process. On the other hand, whilst there are undoubtedly many more barriers challenging the successful implementation and adoption of an e-Tendering system or process, researchers have also identified a range of challenges and perceptions that seem to hinder the uptake of this innovative approach to tendering electronically. A central concern seems to be that of security - when industry organisations have to use the Internet for electronic information transfer. As a result, when it comes to e-Tendering, industry participants insist these innovative tendering systems are developed to ensure the utmost security and integrity. Finally, if Australian organisations continue to explore the competitive ‘dynamics’ of the construction industry, without realising the current and future, trends and benefits of adopting innovative processes, such as e-Tendering, it will limit their globalising opportunities to expand into overseas markets and allow the continuation of international firms successfully entering local markets. As such, researchers believe increased knowledge, awareness and successful implementation of innovative systems and processes raises great expectations regarding their contribution towards ‘stimulating’ the globalisation of electronic procurement activities, and improving overall business and project performances throughout the construction industry sectors and overall marketplace (NSW Government 2002; Harty C. 2003; Murray M. 2003; Pietroforte R. 2003). Achieving the successful integration of an innovative e-Tender solution with an existing / traditional process can be a complex, and if not done correctly, could lead to failure (Bourn J. 2002).

A simultaneous equations model of crash frequency by collision type for rural intersections

Safety at roadway intersections is of significant interest to transportation professionals due to the large number of intersections in transportation networks, the complexity of traffic movements at these locations that leads to large numbers of conflicts, and the wide variety of geometric and operational features that define them. A variety of collision types including head-on, sideswipe, rear-end, and angle crashes occur at intersections. While intersection crash totals may not reveal a site deficiency, over exposure of a specific crash type may reveal otherwise undetected deficiencies. Thus, there is a need to be able to model the expected frequency of crashes by collision type at intersections to enable the detection of problems and the implementation of effective design strategies and countermeasures. Statistically, it is important to consider modeling collision type frequencies simultaneously to account for the possibility of common unobserved factors affecting crash frequencies across crash types. In this paper, a simultaneous equations model of crash frequencies by collision type is developed and presented using crash data for rural intersections in Georgia. The model estimation results support the notion of the presence of significant common unobserved factors across crash types, although the impact of these factors on parameter estimates is found to be rather modest.

Early relational reasoning and the novice programmer : swapping as the “hello world” of relational reasoning

We report on a longitudinal research study of the development of novice programmers in their first semester of programming. In the third week, almost half of our sample of students could not answer an explain-in-plain-English question, for code consisting of just three assignment statements, which swapped the values in two variables. We regard code that swaps the values of two variables as the simplest case of where a programming student can manifest a SOLO relational response. Our results demonstrate that the problems many students face with understanding code can begin very early, on relatively trivial code. However, using traditional programming exercises, these problems often go undetected until late in the semester. New approaches are required to detect and fix these problems earlier.

Longitudinal investigation of wandering behavior in department of veterans affairs nursing home care units

Objectives To explore the extent of and factors associated with male residents who change wandering status post nursing home admission. Design Longitudinal design with secondary data analyses. Admissions over a 4-year period were examined using repeat assessments with the Minimum Data Set (MDS) to formulate a model understanding the development of wandering behavior. Setting One hundred thirty-four Veterans Administration (VA) nursing homes throughout the United States. Participants: Included 6673 residents admitted to VA nursing homes between October 2000 and October 2004. Measurements MDS variables (cognitive impairment, mood, behavior problems, activities of daily living and wandering) included ratings recorded at residents’ admission to the nursing home and a minimum of two other time points at quarterly intervals. Results The majority (86%) of the sample were classified as non wanderers at admission and most of these (94%) remained non wanderers until discharge or the end of the study. Fifty one per cent of the wanderers changed status to non wanderers with 6% of these residents fluctuating in status more than two times. Admission variables associated with an increased risk of changing status from non-wandering to wandering included older age, greater cognitive impairment, more socially inappropriate behavior, resisting care, easier distractibility, and needing less help with personal hygiene. Requiring assistance with locomotion and having three or more medical comorbidities were associated with a decreased chance of changing from non-wandering to wandering status. Conclusion A resident’s change from non-wandering to wandering status may reflect an undetected medical event that affects cognition, but spares mobility.

Development of novel vaccine strategies to prevent genital tract chlamydial infections

Chlamydia trachomatis is the most prevalent bacterial sexually transmitted infection in the developed world and the leading cause of preventable blindness worldwide. As reported by the World Health Organization in 2001, there are approximately 92 million new infections detected annually, costing health systems billions of dollars to treat not only the acute infection, but also to treat infection-associated sequelae. The majority of genital infections are asymptomatic, with 50-70% going undetected. Genital tract infections can be easily treated with antibiotics when detected. Lack of treatment can lead to the development of pelvic inflammatory disease, ectopic pregnancies and tubal factor infertility in women and epididymitis and prostatitis in men. With infection rates on the continual rise and the large number of infections going undetected, there is a need to develop an efficacious vaccine which prevents not only infection, but also the development of infection-associated pathology. Before a vaccine can be developed and administered, the pathogenesis of chlamydial infections needs to be fully understood. This includes the kinetics of ascending infection and the effects of inoculating dose on ascension and development of pathology. The first aim in this study was to examine these factors in a murine model. Female BALB/c mice were infected intravaginally with varying doses of C. muridarum, the mouse variant of human C. trachomatis, and the ascension of infection along the reproductive tract and the time-course of infection-associated pathology development, including inflammatory cell infiltration, pyosalpinx and hydrosalpinx, were determined. It was found that while the inoculating dose did affect the rate and degree of infection, it did not affect any of the pathological parameters examined. This highlighted that the sexual transmission dose may have minimal effect on the development of reproductive sequelae. The results of the first section enabled further studies presented here to use an optimal inoculating dose that would ascend the reproductive tract and cause pathology development, so that vaccine efficacy could be determined. There has been a large amount of research into the development of an efficacious vaccine against genital tract chlamydial infections, with little success. However, there have been no studies examining the effects of the timing of vaccination, including the effects of vaccination during an active genital infection, or after clearance of a previous infection. These are important factors that need to be examined, as it is not yet known whether immunization will enhance not only the individual's immune response, but also pathology development. It is also unknown whether any enhancement of the immune responses will cause the Chlamydia to enter a dormant, persistent state, and possibly further enhance any pathology development. The second section of this study aimed to determine if vaccination during an active genital tract infection, or after clearance of a primary infection, enhanced the murine immune responses and whether any enhanced or reduced pathology occurred. Naïve, actively infected, or previously infected animals were immunized intranasally or transcutaneously with the adjuvants cholera toxin and CpG-ODN in combination with either the major outer membrane protein (MOMP) of C. muridarum, or MOMP and ribonucleotide reductase small chain protein (NrdB) of C. muridarum. It was found that the systemic immune responses in actively or previously infected mice were altered in comparison to animals immunized naïve with the same combinations, however mucosal antibodies were not enhanced. It was also found that there was no difference in pathology development between any of the groups. This suggests that immunization of individuals who may have an asymptomatic infection, or may have been previously exposed to a genital infection, may not benefit from vaccination in terms of enhanced immune responses against re-exposure. The final section of this study aimed to determine if the vaccination regimes mentioned above caused in vivo persistence of C. muridarum in the upper reproductive tracts of mice. As there has been no characterization of C. muridarum persistence in vitro, either ultrastructurally or via transcriptome analysis, this was the first aim of this section. Once it had been shown that C. muridarum could be induced into a persistent state, the gene transcriptional profiles of the selected persistent marker genes were used to determine if persistent infections were indeed present in the upper reproductive tracts of the mice. We found that intranasal immunization during an active infection induced persistent infections in the oviducts, but not the uterine horns, and that intranasal immunization after clearance of infection, caused persistent infections in both the uterine horns and the oviducts of the mice. This is a significant finding, not only because it is the first time that C. muridarum persistence has been characterized in vitro, but also due to the fact that there is minimal characterization of in vivo persistence of any chlamydial species. It is possible that the induction of persistent infections in the reproductive tract might enhance the development of pathology and thereby enhance the risk of infertility, factors that need to be prevented by vaccination, not enhanced. Overall, this study has shown that the inoculating dose does not affect pathology development in the female reproductive tract of infected mice, but does alter the degree and rate of ascending infection. It has also been shown that intranasal immunization during an active genital infection, or after clearance of one, induces persistent infections in the uterine horns and oviducts of mice. This suggests that potential vaccine candidates will need to have these factors closely examined before progressing to clinical trials. This is significant, because if the same situation occurs in humans, a vaccine administered to an asymptomatic, or previously exposed individual may not afford any extra protection and may in fact enhance the risk of development of infection-associated sequelae. This suggests that a vaccine may serve the community better if administered before the commencement of sexual activity.

Prediction of transcriptional regulatory interactions in bacteria : a comparative genomics approach

Exponential growth of genomic data in the last two decades has made manual analyses impractical for all but trial studies. As genomic analyses have become more sophisticated, and move toward comparisons across large datasets, computational approaches have become essential. One of the most important biological questions is to understand the mechanisms underlying gene regulation. Genetic regulation is commonly investigated and modelled through the use of transcriptional regulatory network (TRN) structures. These model the regulatory interactions between two key components: transcription factors (TFs) and the target genes (TGs) they regulate. Transcriptional regulatory networks have proven to be invaluable scientific tools in Bioinformatics. When used in conjunction with comparative genomics, they have provided substantial insights into the evolution of regulatory interactions. Current approaches to regulatory network inference, however, omit two additional key entities: promoters and transcription factor binding sites (TFBSs). In this study, we attempted to explore the relationships among these regulatory components in bacteria. Our primary goal was to identify relationships that can assist in reducing the high false positive rates associated with transcription factor binding site predictions and thereupon enhance the reliability of the inferred transcription regulatory networks. In our preliminary exploration of relationships between the key regulatory components in Escherichia coli transcription, we discovered a number of potentially useful features. The combination of location score and sequence dissimilarity scores increased de novo binding site prediction accuracy by 13.6%. Another important observation made was with regards to the relationship between transcription factors grouped by their regulatory role and corresponding promoter strength. Our study of E.coli ��70 promoters, found support at the 0.1 significance level for our hypothesis | that weak promoters are preferentially associated with activator binding sites to enhance gene expression, whilst strong promoters have more repressor binding sites to repress or inhibit gene transcription. Although the observations were specific to �70, they nevertheless strongly encourage additional investigations when more experimentally confirmed data are available. In our preliminary exploration of relationships between the key regulatory components in E.coli transcription, we discovered a number of potentially useful features { some of which proved successful in reducing the number of false positives when applied to re-evaluate binding site predictions. Of chief interest was the relationship observed between promoter strength and TFs with respect to their regulatory role. Based on the common assumption, where promoter homology positively correlates with transcription rate, we hypothesised that weak promoters would have more transcription factors that enhance gene expression, whilst strong promoters would have more repressor binding sites. The t-tests assessed for E.coli �70 promoters returned a p-value of 0.072, which at 0.1 significance level suggested support for our (alternative) hypothesis; albeit this trend may only be present for promoters where corresponding TFBSs are either all repressors or all activators. Nevertheless, such suggestive results strongly encourage additional investigations when more experimentally confirmed data will become available. Much of the remainder of the thesis concerns a machine learning study of binding site prediction, using the SVM and kernel methods, principally the spectrum kernel. Spectrum kernels have been successfully applied in previous studies of protein classification [91, 92], as well as the related problem of promoter predictions [59], and we have here successfully applied the technique to refining TFBS predictions. The advantages provided by the SVM classifier were best seen in `moderately'-conserved transcription factor binding sites as represented by our E.coli CRP case study. Inclusion of additional position feature attributes further increased accuracy by 9.1% but more notable was the considerable decrease in false positive rate from 0.8 to 0.5 while retaining 0.9 sensitivity. Improved prediction of transcription factor binding sites is in turn extremely valuable in improving inference of regulatory relationships, a problem notoriously prone to false positive predictions. Here, the number of false regulatory interactions inferred using the conventional two-component model was substantially reduced when we integrated de novo transcription factor binding site predictions as an additional criterion for acceptance in a case study of inference in the Fur regulon. This initial work was extended to a comparative study of the iron regulatory system across 20 Yersinia strains. This work revealed interesting, strain-specific difierences, especially between pathogenic and non-pathogenic strains. Such difierences were made clear through interactive visualisations using the TRNDifi software developed as part of this work, and would have remained undetected using conventional methods. This approach led to the nomination of the Yfe iron-uptake system as a candidate for further wet-lab experimentation due to its potential active functionality in non-pathogens and its known participation in full virulence of the bubonic plague strain. Building on this work, we introduced novel structures we have labelled as `regulatory trees', inspired by the phylogenetic tree concept. Instead of using gene or protein sequence similarity, the regulatory trees were constructed based on the number of similar regulatory interactions. While the common phylogentic trees convey information regarding changes in gene repertoire, which we might regard being analogous to `hardware', the regulatory tree informs us of the changes in regulatory circuitry, in some respects analogous to `software'. In this context, we explored the `pan-regulatory network' for the Fur system, the entire set of regulatory interactions found for the Fur transcription factor across a group of genomes. In the pan-regulatory network, emphasis is placed on how the regulatory network for each target genome is inferred from multiple sources instead of a single source, as is the common approach. The benefit of using multiple reference networks, is a more comprehensive survey of the relationships, and increased confidence in the regulatory interactions predicted. In the present study, we distinguish between relationships found across the full set of genomes as the `core-regulatory-set', and interactions found only in a subset of genomes explored as the `sub-regulatory-set'. We found nine Fur target gene clusters present across the four genomes studied, this core set potentially identifying basic regulatory processes essential for survival. Species level difierences are seen at the sub-regulatory-set level; for example the known virulence factors, YbtA and PchR were found in Y.pestis and P.aerguinosa respectively, but were not present in both E.coli and B.subtilis. Such factors and the iron-uptake systems they regulate, are ideal candidates for wet-lab investigation to determine whether or not they are pathogenic specific. In this study, we employed a broad range of approaches to address our goals and assessed these methods using the Fur regulon as our initial case study. We identified a set of promising feature attributes; demonstrated their success in increasing transcription factor binding site prediction specificity while retaining sensitivity, and showed the importance of binding site predictions in enhancing the reliability of regulatory interaction inferences. Most importantly, these outcomes led to the introduction of a range of visualisations and techniques, which are applicable across the entire bacterial spectrum and can be utilised in studies beyond the understanding of transcriptional regulatory networks.

On being balanced in an unbalanced world

This paper examines the case of a procurement auction for a single project, in which the breakdown of the winning bid into its component items determines the value of payments subsequently made to bidder as the work progresses. Unbalanced bidding, or bid skewing, involves the uneven distribution of mark-up among the component items in such a way as to attempt to derive increased benefit to the unbalancer but without involving any change in the total bid. One form of unbalanced bidding for example, termed Front Loading (FL), is thought to be widespread in practice. This involves overpricing the work items that occur early in the project and underpricing the work items that occur later in the project in order to enhance the bidder's cash flow. Naturally, auctioners attempt to protect themselves from the effects of unbalancing—typically reserving the right to reject a bid that has been detected as unbalanced. As a result, models have been developed to both unbalance bids and detect unbalanced bids but virtually nothing is known of their use, success or otherwise. This is of particular concern for the detection methods as, without testing, there is no way of knowing the extent to which unbalanced bids are remaining undetected or balanced bids are being falsely detected as unbalanced. This paper reports on a simulation study aimed at demonstrating the likely effects of unbalanced bid detection models in a deterministic environment involving FL unbalancing in a Texas DOT detection setting, in which bids are deemed to be unbalanced if an item exceeds a maximum (or fails to reach a minimum) ‘cut-off’ value determined by the Texas method. A proportion of bids are automatically and maximally unbalanced over a long series of simulated contract projects and the profits and detection rates of both the balancers and unbalancers are compared. The results show that, as expected, the balanced bids are often incorrectly detected as unbalanced, with the rate of (mis)detection increasing with the proportion of FL bidders in the auction. It is also shown that, while the profit for balanced bidders remains the same irrespective of the number of FL bidders involved, the FL bidder's profit increases with the greater proportion of FL bidders present in the auction. Sensitivity tests show the results to be generally robust, with (mis)detection rates increasing further when there are fewer bidders in the auction and when more data are averaged to determine the baseline value, but being smaller or larger with increased cut-off values and increased cost and estimate variability depending on the number of FL bidders involved. The FL bidder's expected benefit from unbalancing, on the other hand, increases, when there are fewer bidders in the auction. It also increases when the cut-off rate and discount rate is increased, when there is less variability in the costs and their estimates, and when less data are used in setting the baseline values.