The Risk Management of Minimum Return Guarantees

Contracts paying a guaranteed minimum rate of return and a fraction of a positive excess rate, which is specified relative to a benchmark portfolio, are closely related to unit-linked life-insurance products and can be considered as alternatives to direct investment in the underlying benchmark. They contain an embedded power option, and the key issue is the tractable and realistic hedging of this option, in order to rigorously justify valuation by arbitrage arguments and prevent the guarantees from becoming uncontrollable liabilities to the issuer. We show how to determine the contract parameters conservatively and implement robust risk-management strategies.

Volatility of Housing

The aim of the project is to develop a theoretical framework where homelessness arises due to various economic and social factors that vary over time. The ultimate goal is i) to understand whether homelessness spells, entrances and exits could be predicted and if so what information is necessary; and ii) to design and evaluate a homelessness prevention programme in a changing and uncertain environment. Examples of the questions we want to answer are: Should it be made easier for people to borrow money so that they can get out of homelessness, or will such borrowing allow people to over-consume today and so fall into homelessness tomorrow? Should precautionary savings be encouraged so that people have cushions to withstand future shocks, or will savings just delay entry into homelessness? What interventions will affect the probability of becoming homeless and how will they affect behaviour? How will interventions affect incentives to save and to consume before homelessness prevention programmes kick in?

Government policy under price uncertainty: a source of volatility in illegal immigration

In this paper we provide an alternative explanation for why illegal immigration can exhibit substantial fluctuation. We develop a model economy in which migrants make decisions in the face of uncertain border enforcement and lump-sum transfers from the host country. The uncertainty is extrinsic in nature, a sunspot, and arises as a result of ambiguity regarding the commodity price of money. Migrants are restricted from participating in state-contingent insurance markets in the host country, whereas host country natives are not. Volatility in migration flows stems from two distinct sources: the tension between transfers inducing migration and enforcement discouraging it and secondly the existence of a sunspot. Finally, we examine the impact of a change in tax/transfer policies by the government on migration.

Supervision and career counsellors: A little-explored practice with an uncertain future

While the supervision of counsellors has received much attention in the literature, there is a dearth of empirical and conceptual literature about the supervision of career counsellors. Career counselling has not to date followed other helping professions towards increased requirements for supervision or compulsory supervision. Recently there has been slight evidence of change and some advocacy of supervision for career counsellors in the literature. However, no previous studies related to supervision and career counsellors have been conducted. The Australian study reported here gathered information from members of a professional career counselling association about supervision through survey and focus group interviews. The findings revealed that supervision is not widely practised and that there are varying levels of understanding of and commitment to supervision.

Phylogenetic relationships and uncertain taxonomy of Pedomicrobium species

The phylogenetic relationships among the species of the genus Pedomicrobium were studied by comparing their 16S rRNA sequences, The Pedomicrobium species form a coherent phylogenetic cluster within the genera of the hyphal budding bacteria in the alpha-Proteobacteria. The sequences of two strains of Pedomicrobium australicum were obtained from DNAs extracted from nonviable freeze-dried cells, which are the only source of material available, and were found to be almost identical (level of similarity, 99.9%), Overall, the Pedomicrobium species are closely related, with sequence similarities ranging from 96.2 to 99.9%, Pedomicrobium manganicum is phylogenetically the most distantly related species and exhibits the lowest similarity (96.2%) with Pedomicrobium americanum, Australian isolate Pedomicrobium sp, strain ACM 3067, P, americanum, and P, australicum are all very highly related, with similarities greater than 99%, Pedomicrobium sp, strain ACM 3067 is most closely related to P, australicum (level of similarity, 99.6%) and P, americanum (99.4%), These manganese-oxidizing species are more closely related to the iron-oxidizing species Pedomicrobium ferrugineum than to the other manganese-oxidizing species, P, manganicum. Taxonomic uncertainties resulting from the loss of the type culture of P, australicum are discussed.

MRI findings of prostate stromal tumour of uncertain malignant potential: a case report

Prostatic stromal tumours are rare neoplasias that include benign, malignant and borderline lesions. Stromal tumour of uncertain malignant potential (STUMP) has been recently described and only a few reports exist in the literature. As a rare and distinct neoplasia, to date, there is no description of MRI findings of prostate STUMP. In this article, we describe the clinical and MRI features with histopathological correlation of a patient with prostate STUMP.

The child of uncertain sex: 17 years of experience

Objective: To review the common clinical presentations, investigations and final diagnosis of children presenting with genital ambiguity. Methodology: Retrospective search of the Royal Children's Hospital, Brisbane, Australia, medical records and personal medical database of one of the authors (MJT) between 1982 and 1999. Results: Fifty-one children aged 0.1-;14 (mean 3.9) years were identified. Twenty-two cases had a 46XX karyotype, and commonly presented with an enlarged phallus (77.2%), urogenital sinus (63.6%) and labioscrotal fold(s) (40.9%). Congenital adrenal hyperplasia (CAH) was the most common final diagnosis (72.7%) . Twenty-nine cases of genital ambiguity had a 46XY karyotype and commonly presented with palpable gonad(s) (75.8%), undescended testes (51.7%), penoscrotal hypospadias (51.7%) and a small phallus (41.3%). Androgen insensitivity and gonadal dysgenesis were the commonest final diagnosis both occurring at a frequency of 17.2%. Conclusions: The results emphasize the importance of CAH as the most common diagnosis in 46XX cases presenting with ambiguous genitalia. Those with 46XY had a wider range of diagnoses. Despite thorough investigation, 23.5% had no definite final diagnosis made.

Reliability factors in business software: volatility, requirements and end-users

Many business-oriented software applications are subject to frequent changes in requirements. This paper shows that, ceteris paribus, increases in the volatility of system requirements decrease the reliability of software. Further, systems that exhibit high volatility during the development phase are likely to have lower reliability during their operational phase. In addition to the typically higher volatility of requirements, end-users who specify the requirements of business-oriented systems are usually less technically oriented than people who specify the requirements of compilers, radar tracking systems or medical equipment. Hence, the characteristics of software reliability problems for business-oriented systems are likely to differ significantly from those of more technically oriented systems.