Two envelope problems and the roles of ignorance

Four variations on Two Envelope Paradox are stated and compared. The variations are employed to provide a diagnosis and an explanation of what has gone awry in the paradoxical modeling of the decision problem that the paradox poses. The canonical formulation of the paradox underdescribes the ways in which one envelope can have twice the amount that is in the other. Some ways one envelope can have twice the amount that is in the other make it rational to prefer the envelope that was originally rejected. Some do not, and it is a mistake to treat them alike. The nature of the mistake is diagnosed by the different roles that rigid designators and definite descriptions play in unproblematic and in untoward formulations of decision tables that are employed in setting out the decision problem that gives rise to the paradox. The decision maker’s knowledge or ignorance of how one envelope came to have twice the amount that is in the other determines which of the different ways of modeling his decision problem is correct. Under this diagnosis, the paradoxical modeling of the Two Envelope problem is incoherent.

Manuscript copy of the book of Harvard, 1767

The pamphlet-sized manuscript includes "The Book of Harvard" signed "Joseph Cummings, scriptis, Janr 7th 1767," an untitled two-page essay beginning, "Wisdom is ye Crown of life" and ending "Draught of Knowledge, let us with a laudable ambition, strive to excel each other in an ardent pursuit of Learning, then shall we raise to ourselves a monument of honest fame, which shall perish only in ye general wreak of nature," and on the last page, "An Accrostick" beginning "Jangling & Discord are thy Souls delight" and spelling out JAMES MITCHEL VARNUM dated July 3, 1767 and signed "The 3d edition revised & improved by Gove & Fogg."

Two independent and primitive envelopes of the bilobate nucleus of comet 67P

The factors shaping cometary nuclei are still largely unknown, but could be the result of concurrent effects of evolutionary(1,2) and primordial processes(3,4). The peculiar bilobed shape of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko may be the result of the fusion of two objects that were once separate or the result of a localized excavation by outgassing at the interface between the two lobes(5). Here we report that the comet's major lobe is enveloped by a nearly continuous set of strata, up to 650 metres thick, which are independent of an analogous stratified envelope on the minor lobe. Gravity vectors computed for the two lobes separately are closer to perpendicular to the strata than those calculated for the entire nucleus and adjacent to the neck separating the two lobes. Therefore comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko is an accreted body of two distinct objects with 'onion-like' stratification, which formed before they merged. We conclude that gentle, low-velocity collisions occurred between two fully formed kilometre-sized cometesimals in the early stages of the Solar System. The notable structural similarities between the two lobes of comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko indicate that the early-forming cometesimals experienced similar primordial stratified accretion, even though they formed independently.

Delineating environmental envelopes to improve mapping of species distributions, via a hurdle model with CART &/or MaxEnT

Species distribution modelling (SDM) typically analyses species’ presence together with some form of absence information. Ideally absences comprise observations or are inferred from comprehensive sampling. When such information is not available, then pseudo-absences are often generated from the background locations within the study region of interest containing the presences, or else absence is implied through the comparison of presences to the whole study region, e.g. as is the case in Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) or Poisson point process modelling. However, the choice of which absence information to include can be both challenging and highly influential on SDM predictions (e.g. Oksanen and Minchin, 2002). In practice, the use of pseudo- or implied absences often leads to an imbalance where absences far outnumber presences. This leaves analysis highly susceptible to ‘naughty-noughts’: absences that occur beyond the envelope of the species, which can exert strong influence on the model and its predictions (Austin and Meyers, 1996). Also known as ‘excess zeros’, naughty noughts can be estimated via an overall proportion in simple hurdle or mixture models (Martin et al., 2005). However, absences, especially those that occur beyond the species envelope, can often be more diverse than presences. Here we consider an extension to excess zero models. The two-staged approach first exploits the compartmentalisation provided by classification trees (CTs) (as in O’Leary, 2008) to identify multiple sources of naughty noughts and simultaneously delineate several species envelopes. Then SDMs can be fit separately within each envelope, and for this stage, we examine both CTs (as in Falk et al., 2014) and the popular MaxEnt (Elith et al., 2006). We introduce a wider range of model performance measures to improve treatment of naughty noughts in SDM. We retain an overall measure of model performance, the area under the curve (AUC) of the Receiver-Operating Curve (ROC), but focus on its constituent measures of false negative rate (FNR) and false positive rate (FPR), and how these relate to the threshold in the predicted probability of presence that delimits predicted presence from absence. We also propose error rates more relevant to users of predictions: false omission rate (FOR), the chance that a predicted absence corresponds to (and hence wastes) an observed presence, and the false discovery rate (FDR), reflecting those predicted (or potential) presences that correspond to absence. A high FDR may be desirable since it could help target future search efforts, whereas zero or low FOR is desirable since it indicates none of the (often valuable) presences have been ignored in the SDM. For illustration, we chose Bradypus variegatus, a species that has previously been published as an exemplar species for MaxEnt, proposed by Phillips et al. (2006). We used CTs to increasingly refine the species envelope, starting with the whole study region (E0), eliminating more and more potential naughty noughts (E1–E3). When combined with an SDM fit within the species envelope, the best CT SDM had similar AUC and FPR to the best MaxEnt SDM, but otherwise performed better. The FNR and FOR were greatly reduced, suggesting that CTs handle absences better. Interestingly, MaxEnt predictions showed low discriminatory performance, with the most common predicted probability of presence being in the same range (0.00-0.20) for both true absences and presences. In summary, this example shows that SDMs can be improved by introducing an initial hurdle to identify naughty noughts and partition the envelope before applying SDMs. This improvement was barely detectable via AUC and FPR yet visible in FOR, FNR, and the comparison of predicted probability of presence distribution for pres/absence.

Modulational instability and localized excitations involving two nonlinearly coupled upper-hybrid waves in plasmas

The nonlinear coupling between two perpendicularly propagating ( with respect to the external magnetic field direction) upper-hybrid ( UH) waves in a uniform magnetoplasma is considered, taking into account quasi-stationary density perturbations which are driven by the UH wave ponderomotive force. This interaction is governed by a pair of coupled nonlinear Schrodinger equations ( CNLSEs) for the UH wave envelopes. The CNLSEs are used to investigate the occurrence of modulational instability. Waves in the vicinity of the UH resonance are considered, so that the group dispersion terms for both waves are approximately equal, but the UH wave group velocities may be different. It is found that a pair of unstable UH waves ( obeying anomalous group dispersion) yields an increased instability growth rate, while a pair of stable UH waves ( individually obeying normal group dispersion) remains stable for equal group velocities, although it is destabilized by a finite group velocity mismatch. Stationary nonlinear solutions of the CNLSEs are presented.

Modulated transverse off-plane dust-lattice wave packets in hexagonal two-dimensional dusty plasma crystals

The propagation of nonlinear dust-lattice waves in a two-dimensional hexagonal crystal is investigated. Transverse (off-plane) dust grain oscillatory motion is considered in the form of a backward propagating wave packet whose linear and nonlinear characteristics are investigated. An evolution equation is obtained for the slowly varying amplitude of the first (fundamental) harmonic by making use of a two-dimensional lattice multiple scales technique. An analysis based on the continuum approximation (spatially extended excitations compared to the lattice spacing) shows that wave packets will be modulationally stable and that dark-type envelope solitons (density holes) may occur in the long wavelength region. Evidence is provided of modulational instability and of the occurrence of bright-type envelopes (pulses) at shorter wavelengths. The role of second neighbor interactions is also investigated and is shown to be rather weak in determining the modulational stability region. The effect of dissipation, assumed negligible in the algebra throughout the article, is briefly discussed.

Photodetachment as destruction mechanism for CN- and C3N- anions in circumstellar envelopes

Absolute photodetachment cross sections of two anions of astrophysical importance CN- and C3N- were measured to be (1.18 +- (0.03)_stat (0.17)_sys) * 10^-17 cm^2 and (1.43 +- (0.14)_stat (0.37)_sys) * 10^-17 cm^2 respectively at the ultraviolet wavelength of 266 nm (4.66 eV). These relatively large values of the cross sections imply that photodetachment can play a major role in the destruction mechanisms of these anions particularly in photon-dominated regions. We have therefore carried out model calculations using the newly measured cross sections to investigate the abundance of these molecular anions in the cirumstellar envelope of the carbon-rich star IRC+10216. The model predicts the relative importance of the various mechanisms of formation and destruction of these species in different regions of the envelope. UV photodetachment was found to be the major destruction mechanism for both CN- and C3N- anions in those regions of the envelope, where they occur in peak abundance. It was also found that photodetachment plays a crucial role in the degradation of these anions throughout the circumstellar envelope.

Ultrastructural alterations in mesophyll and bundle sheath chloroplasts of two maize cultivars in response to chilling at high irradiance

Maize (Zea mays L.) seedlings of two cultivars (cv. Bastion adapted to W. Europe, and cv. Batan 8686 adapted to the highlands of Mexico), raised in a glasshouse (19-25 degrees C), were transferred to 4.5 or 9 degrees C at photon flux density (PPFD) of 950 mu mol m(-2) s(-1) with 10-h photoperiod for 58 h and then allowed to recover at 22 degrees C for 16 h (14 h dark and 2 h at PPFD of 180 mu mol m(-2) s(-1)). The ultrastructural responses after 4 h or 26 h at 4.5 degrees C were the disappearance of starch grains in the bundle sheath chloroplasts and the contraction of intrathylakoid spaces in stromal thylakoids of the mesophyll chloroplasts. At this time, bundle sheath chloroplasts of cv. Batan 8686 formed peripheral reticulum. Prolonged stress at 4.5 degrees C (50 h) caused plastid swelling and the dilation of intrathylakoid spaces, mainly in mesophyll chloroplasts. Bundle sheath chloroplasts of cv. Batan 8686 seedlings appeared well preserved in shape and structure. Batan 8686 had also higher net photosynthetic rates during chilling and recovery than Bastion. Extended leaf photobleaching developed during the recovery period after chilling at 4.5 degrees C. This was associated with collapsed chloroplast envelopes, disintegrated chloroplasts and very poor staining.

Fracture modelling of DP780 sheets using a hybrid experimental-numerical method and two-dimensional digital image correlation

This paper is concerned with the construction of fracture envelopes of DP780 sheets using two methods: a hybrid experimental-numerical method; two-dimensional digital image correlation (2D-DIC). For the hybrid method, four types of ductile fracture tests were carried out covering a wide range of stress states on specimens: with a central hole; two symmetric circular notches; flat grooved; and diagonally double-notched. Based on the fracture strain and loading paths identified with finite element simulation, a fracture envelope was obtained by employing the three-parameter modified Mohr-Coulomb fracture model. In addition, the fracture surface strain was directly measured using 2D-DIC. Loading histories of each test were extracted from a surface element of a three dimensional finite element model. The comparison of fracture envelopes constructed by the two methods reveals that there is little difference. Thus, it can be concluded that 2D-DIC is applicable to fracture modelling of DP780 sheets despite the assumption of the plane stress condition even after necking

Two sequential PCR amplifications for detection of Schistosoma mansoni in stool samples with low parasite load

Schistosomiasis constitutes a major public health problem, with an estimated 200 million individuals infected worldwide and 700 million people living in risk areas. In Brazil there are areas of high, medium and low endemicity. Studies have shown that in endemic areas with a low prevalence of Schistosoma infection the sensitivity of parasitological methods is clearly reduced. Consequently diagnosis is often impeded due to the presence of false-negative results. The aim of this study is to present the PCR reamplification (Re-PCR) protocol for the detection of Schistosoma mansoni in samples with low parasite load (with less than 100 eggs per gram (epg) of feces). Three methods were used for the lysis of the envelopes of the S. mansoni eggs and two techniques of DNA extraction were carried out. Extracted DNA was quantified, and the results suggested that the extraction technique, which mixed glass beads with a guanidine isothiocyanate/phenol/chloroform (GT) solution, produced good results. PCR reamplification was conducted and detection sensitivity was found to be five eggs per 500 mg of artificially marked feces. The results achieved using these methods suggest that they are potentially viable for the detection of Schistosoma infection with low parasite load.

Comparison of dynamic effects of high-speed traffic load on ballasted track using a simplified two-dimensional and full three-dimensional model.

The vertical dynamic actions transmitted by railway vehicles to the ballasted track infrastructure is evaluated taking into account models with different degree of detail. In particular, we have studied this matter from a two-dimensional (2D) finite element model to a fully coupled three-dimensional (3D) multi-body finite element model. The vehicle and track are coupled via a non-linear Hertz contact mechanism. The method of Lagrange multipliers is used for the contact constraint enforcement between wheel and rail. Distributed elevation irregularities are generated based on power spectral density (PSD) distributions which are taken into account for the interaction. The numerical simulations are performed in the time domain, using a direct integration method for solving the transient problem due to the contact nonlinearities. The results obtained include contact forces, forces transmitted to the infrastructure (sleeper) by railpads and envelopes of relevant results for several track irregularities and speed ranges. The main contribution of this work is to identify and discuss coincidences and differences between discrete 2D models and continuum 3D models, as wheel as assessing the validity of evaluating the dynamic loading on the track with simplified 2D models

Experimental and Analytical Methodologies for Predicting Peak Loads on Building Envelopes and Roofing Systems

The performance of building envelopes and roofing systems significantly depends on accurate knowledge of wind loads and the response of envelope components under realistic wind conditions. Wind tunnel testing is a well-established practice to determine wind loads on structures. For small structures much larger model scales are needed than for large structures, to maintain modeling accuracy and minimize Reynolds number effects. In these circumstances the ability to obtain a large enough turbulence integral scale is usually compromised by the limited dimensions of the wind tunnel meaning that it is not possible to simulate the low frequency end of the turbulence spectrum. Such flows are called flows with Partial Turbulence Simulation. In this dissertation, the test procedure and scaling requirements for tests in partial turbulence simulation are discussed. A theoretical method is proposed for including the effects of low-frequency turbulences in the post-test analysis. In this theory the turbulence spectrum is divided into two distinct statistical processes, one at high frequencies which can be simulated in the wind tunnel, and one at low frequencies which can be treated in a quasi-steady manner. The joint probability of load resulting from the two processes is derived from which full-scale equivalent peak pressure coefficients can be obtained. The efficacy of the method is proved by comparing predicted data derived from tests on large-scale models of the Silsoe Cube and Texas-Tech University buildings in Wall of Wind facility at Florida International University with the available full-scale data. For multi-layer building envelopes such as rain-screen walls, roof pavers, and vented energy efficient walls not only peak wind loads but also their spatial gradients are important. Wind permeable roof claddings like roof pavers are not well dealt with in many existing building codes and standards. Large-scale experiments were carried out to investigate the wind loading on concrete pavers including wind blow-off tests and pressure measurements. Simplified guidelines were developed for design of loose-laid roof pavers against wind uplift. The guidelines are formatted so that use can be made of the existing information in codes and standards such as ASCE 7-10 on pressure coefficients on components and cladding.

Experimental and analytical methodologies for predicting peak loads on building envelopes and roofing systems

The performance of building envelopes and roofing systems significantly depends on accurate knowledge of wind loads and the response of envelope components under realistic wind conditions. Wind tunnel testing is a well-established practice to determine wind loads on structures. For small structures much larger model scales are needed than for large structures, to maintain modeling accuracy and minimize Reynolds number effects. In these circumstances the ability to obtain a large enough turbulence integral scale is usually compromised by the limited dimensions of the wind tunnel meaning that it is not possible to simulate the low frequency end of the turbulence spectrum. Such flows are called flows with Partial Turbulence Simulation.^ In this dissertation, the test procedure and scaling requirements for tests in partial turbulence simulation are discussed. A theoretical method is proposed for including the effects of low-frequency turbulences in the post-test analysis. In this theory the turbulence spectrum is divided into two distinct statistical processes, one at high frequencies which can be simulated in the wind tunnel, and one at low frequencies which can be treated in a quasi-steady manner. The joint probability of load resulting from the two processes is derived from which full-scale equivalent peak pressure coefficients can be obtained. The efficacy of the method is proved by comparing predicted data derived from tests on large-scale models of the Silsoe Cube and Texas-Tech University buildings in Wall of Wind facility at Florida International University with the available full-scale data.^ For multi-layer building envelopes such as rain-screen walls, roof pavers, and vented energy efficient walls not only peak wind loads but also their spatial gradients are important. Wind permeable roof claddings like roof pavers are not well dealt with in many existing building codes and standards. Large-scale experiments were carried out to investigate the wind loading on concrete pavers including wind blow-off tests and pressure measurements. Simplified guidelines were developed for design of loose-laid roof pavers against wind uplift. The guidelines are formatted so that use can be made of the existing information in codes and standards such as ASCE 7-10 on pressure coefficients on components and cladding.^