Combining probabilistic land-use change and tree population dynamics modelling to simulate responses in mountain forests

Altitudinal tree lines are mainly constrained by temperature, but can also be influenced by factors such as human activity, particularly in the European Alps, where centuries of agricultural use have affected the tree-line. Over the last decades this trend has been reversed due to changing agricultural practices and land-abandonment. We aimed to combine a statistical land-abandonment model with a forest dynamics model, to take into account the combined effects of climate and human land-use on the Alpine tree-line in Switzerland. Land-abandonment probability was expressed by a logistic regression function of degree-day sum, distance from forest edge, soil stoniness, slope, proportion of employees in the secondary and tertiary sectors, proportion of commuters and proportion of full-time farms. This was implemented in the TreeMig spatio-temporal forest model. Distance from forest edge and degree-day sum vary through feed-back from the dynamics part of TreeMig and climate change scenarios, while the other variables remain constant for each grid cell over time. The new model, TreeMig-LAb, was tested on theoretical landscapes, where the variables in the land-abandonment model were varied one by one. This confirmed the strong influence of distance from forest and slope on the abandonment probability. Degree-day sum has a more complex role, with opposite influences on land-abandonment and forest growth. TreeMig-LAb was also applied to a case study area in the Upper Engadine (Swiss Alps), along with a model where abandonment probability was a constant. Two scenarios were used: natural succession only (100% probability) and a probability of abandonment based on past transition proportions in that area (2.1% per decade). The former showed new forest growing in all but the highest-altitude locations. The latter was more realistic as to numbers of newly forested cells, but their location was random and the resulting landscape heterogeneous. Using the logistic regression model gave results consistent with observed patterns of land-abandonment: existing forests expanded and gaps closed, leading to an increasingly homogeneous landscape.

Modelling tree population dynamics at the alpine and boreal tree-line ecotones in response to climate and land-use change

Summary Ecotones are sensitive to change because they contain high numbers of species living at the margin of their environmental tolerance. This is equally true of tree-lines, which are determined by attitudinal or latitudinal temperature gradients. In the current context of climate change, they are expected to undergo modifications in position, tree biomass and possibly species composition. Attitudinal and latitudinal tree-lines differ mainly in the steepness of the underlying temperature gradient: distances are larger at latitudinal tree-lines, which could have an impact on the ability of tree species to migrate in response to climate change. Aside from temperature, tree-lines are also affected on a more local level by pressure from human activities. These are also changing as a consequence of modifications in our societies and may interact with the effects of climate change. Forest dynamics models are often used for climate change simulations because of their mechanistic processes. The spatially-explicit model TreeMig was used as a base to develop a model specifically tuned for the northern European and Alpine tree-line ecotones. For the latter, a module for land-use change processes was also added. The temperature response parameters for the species in the model were first calibrated by means of tree-ring data from various species and sites at both tree-lines. This improved the growth response function in the model, but also lead to the conclusion that regeneration is probably more important than growth for controlling tree-line position and species' distributions. The second step was to implement the module for abandonment of agricultural land in the Alps, based on an existing spatial statistical model. The sensitivity of its most important variables was tested and the model's performance compared to other modelling approaches. The probability that agricultural land would be abandoned was strongly influenced by the distance from the nearest forest and the slope, bath of which are proxies for cultivation costs. When applied to a case study area, the resulting model, named TreeMig-LAb, gave the most realistic results. These were consistent with observed consequences of land-abandonment such as the expansion of the existing forest and closing up of gaps. This new model was then applied in two case study areas, one in the Swiss Alps and one in Finnish Lapland, under a variety of climate change scenarios. These were based on forecasts of temperature change over the next century by the IPCC and the HadCM3 climate model (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 and +5.6 °C) and included a post-change stabilisation period of 300 years. The results showed radical disruptions at both tree-lines. With the most conservative climate change scenario, species' distributions simply shifted, but it took several centuries reach a new equilibrium. With the more extreme scenarios, some species disappeared from our study areas (e.g. Pinus cembra in the Alps) or dwindled to very low numbers, as they ran out of land into which they could migrate. The most striking result was the lag in the response of most species, independently from the climate change scenario or tree-line type considered. Finally, a statistical model of the effect of reindeer (Rangifer tarandus) browsing on the growth of Pinus sylvestris was developed, as a first step towards implementing human impacts at the boreal tree-line. The expected effect was an indirect one, as reindeer deplete the ground lichen cover, thought to protect the trees against adverse climate conditions. The model showed a small but significant effect of browsing, but as the link with the underlying climate variables was unclear and the model was not spatial, it was not usable as such. Developing the TreeMig-LAb model allowed to: a) establish a method for deriving species' parameters for the growth equation from tree-rings, b) highlight the importance of regeneration in determining tree-line position and species' distributions and c) improve the integration of social sciences into landscape modelling. Applying the model at the Alpine and northern European tree-lines under different climate change scenarios showed that with most forecasted levels of temperature increase, tree-lines would suffer major disruptions, with shifts in distributions and potential extinction of some tree-line species. However, these responses showed strong lags, so these effects would not become apparent before decades and could take centuries to stabilise. Résumé Les écotones son sensibles au changement en raison du nombre élevé d'espèces qui y vivent à la limite de leur tolérance environnementale. Ceci s'applique également aux limites des arbres définies par les gradients de température altitudinaux et latitudinaux. Dans le contexte actuel de changement climatique, on s'attend à ce qu'elles subissent des modifications de leur position, de la biomasse des arbres et éventuellement des essences qui les composent. Les limites altitudinales et latitudinales diffèrent essentiellement au niveau de la pente des gradients de température qui les sous-tendent les distance sont plus grandes pour les limites latitudinales, ce qui pourrait avoir un impact sur la capacité des espèces à migrer en réponse au changement climatique. En sus de la température, la limite des arbres est aussi influencée à un niveau plus local par les pressions dues aux activités humaines. Celles-ci sont aussi en mutation suite aux changements dans nos sociétés et peuvent interagir avec les effets du changement climatique. Les modèles de dynamique forestière sont souvent utilisés pour simuler les effets du changement climatique, car ils sont basés sur la modélisation de processus. Le modèle spatialement explicite TreeMig a été utilisé comme base pour développer un modèle spécialement adapté pour la limite des arbres en Europe du Nord et dans les Alpes. Pour cette dernière, un module servant à simuler des changements d'utilisation du sol a également été ajouté. Tout d'abord, les paramètres de la courbe de réponse à la température pour les espèces inclues dans le modèle ont été calibrées au moyen de données dendrochronologiques pour diverses espèces et divers sites des deux écotones. Ceci a permis d'améliorer la courbe de croissance du modèle, mais a également permis de conclure que la régénération est probablement plus déterminante que la croissance en ce qui concerne la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces. La seconde étape consistait à implémenter le module d'abandon du terrain agricole dans les Alpes, basé sur un modèle statistique spatial existant. La sensibilité des variables les plus importantes du modèle a été testée et la performance de ce dernier comparée à d'autres approches de modélisation. La probabilité qu'un terrain soit abandonné était fortement influencée par la distance à la forêt la plus proche et par la pente, qui sont tous deux des substituts pour les coûts liés à la mise en culture. Lors de l'application en situation réelle, le nouveau modèle, baptisé TreeMig-LAb, a donné les résultats les plus réalistes. Ceux-ci étaient comparables aux conséquences déjà observées de l'abandon de terrains agricoles, telles que l'expansion des forêts existantes et la fermeture des clairières. Ce nouveau modèle a ensuite été mis en application dans deux zones d'étude, l'une dans les Alpes suisses et l'autre en Laponie finlandaise, avec divers scénarios de changement climatique. Ces derniers étaient basés sur les prévisions de changement de température pour le siècle prochain établies par l'IPCC et le modèle climatique HadCM3 (ΔT: +1.3, +3.5 et +5.6 °C) et comprenaient une période de stabilisation post-changement climatique de 300 ans. Les résultats ont montré des perturbations majeures dans les deux types de limites de arbres. Avec le scénario de changement climatique le moins extrême, les distributions respectives des espèces ont subi un simple glissement, mais il a fallu plusieurs siècles pour qu'elles atteignent un nouvel équilibre. Avec les autres scénarios, certaines espèces ont disparu de la zone d'étude (p. ex. Pinus cembra dans les Alpes) ou ont vu leur population diminuer parce qu'il n'y avait plus assez de terrains disponibles dans lesquels elles puissent migrer. Le résultat le plus frappant a été le temps de latence dans la réponse de la plupart des espèces, indépendamment du scénario de changement climatique utilisé ou du type de limite des arbres. Finalement, un modèle statistique de l'effet de l'abroutissement par les rennes (Rangifer tarandus) sur la croissance de Pinus sylvestris a été développé, comme première étape en vue de l'implémentation des impacts humains sur la limite boréale des arbres. L'effet attendu était indirect, puisque les rennes réduisent la couverture de lichen sur le sol, dont on attend un effet protecteur contre les rigueurs climatiques. Le modèle a mis en évidence un effet modeste mais significatif, mais étant donné que le lien avec les variables climatiques sous jacentes était peu clair et que le modèle n'était pas appliqué dans l'espace, il n'était pas utilisable tel quel. Le développement du modèle TreeMig-LAb a permis : a) d'établir une méthode pour déduire les paramètres spécifiques de l'équation de croissance ä partir de données dendrochronologiques, b) de mettre en évidence l'importance de la régénération dans la position de la limite des arbres et la distribution des espèces et c) d'améliorer l'intégration des sciences sociales dans les modèles de paysage. L'application du modèle aux limites alpines et nord-européennes des arbres sous différents scénarios de changement climatique a montré qu'avec la plupart des niveaux d'augmentation de température prévus, la limite des arbres subirait des perturbations majeures, avec des glissements d'aires de répartition et l'extinction potentielle de certaines espèces. Cependant, ces réponses ont montré des temps de latence importants, si bien que ces effets ne seraient pas visibles avant des décennies et pourraient mettre plusieurs siècles à se stabiliser.

Tree population and community dynamics in a Brazilian tropical semideciduous forest

The dynamics of the tree community and 30 tree populations were examined in an area of tropical semideciduous forest located on the margin of the Rio Grande, SE Brazil, based on surveys done in 1990 and 1997 in three 0.18 ha plots. The main purpose was to assess whether variations in dynamics were related to topography and the effects of a catastrophic flood in 1992. Rates of mortality and recruitment of trees and gain and loss of basal area in two topographic sites, lower (flooded) and upper (non-flooded), were obtained. Projected trajectories of mean and accelerated growth in diameter were obtained for each species. In both topographic sites, mortality rates surpassed recruitment rates, gain rates of basal area surpassed loss rates, and size distributions changed, with declining proportions of smaller trees. These overall changes were possibly related to increased underground water supply after the 1992 flood as well as to a c. 250-year-old process of primary succession on abandoned gold mines. Possible effects of the 1992 flood showed up in the higher proportions of dead trees in the flooded sites and faster growth rates in the flood-free sites. Species of different regeneration guilds showed particular trends with respect to their demographic changes and diameter growth patterns. Nevertheless, patterns of population dynamics differed between topographic sites for only two species.

Tree population and community dynamics in a Brazilian tropical semideciduous forest

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Population dynamics of Leptopharsa heveae (Hemiptera: Tingidae) and Erythmelus tingitiphagus (Hymenoptera: Mymaridae) in rubber tree plants

The tingid Leptopharsa heveae, known as the lace bug, occurs in large populations in rubber tree plantations, limiting the production of latex due to losses of photosynthetic area and weakening of the infested trees. The alternative for the use of insecticides would be the release of biological control agents, but little is known about the natural enemies of L. heveae. The parasitoid Erythmelus tingitiphagus parasitizes eggs of the lace bug in rubber tree plantations. The knowledge of the population dynamics and the peak of occurrence of economically important insect species and their natural enemies are indispensable requirements for the establishment of efficient and rational control strategies. The objective of this work was to study the population dynamics of L. heveae and E. tingitiphagus in rubber tree plantations in the county of Itiquira, MT, Brazil. Mature folioles were collected weekly from the lower stratum of the canopy of the tree clones RRIM 600, PR 255, GT 1, PB 235 and PB 217, from August/2005 to February/2006. The parasitoid was observed during the whole study period. The population peaks of the populations of the L. heveae and E. tingitiphagus in the study area occurred at the end of October and beginning of November. This result demonstrates that measures for the control of L. heveae and population increase of E. tingitiphagus must be adopted before the peak population of this pest in cultivated rubber plantations.

Tree Islands in Everglades Landscapes: Current Status, Historical Changes, and Hydrologic Impacts on Population Dynamics and Moisture Relations, First Annual Report

In 2005 we initiated a project designed to better understand tree island structure and function in the Everglades and the wetlands bordering it. Focus was on the raised portions at the upstream end of the islands, where tropical hardwood species adapted to well-drained conditions usually are the most prominent component of the vegetation. The study design is hierarchical, with four levels; in general, a large number of sites is to be surveyed once for a limited set of parameters, and increasingly small sets of islands are to be sampled more intensively, more frequently, and for more aspects of ecosystem function. During the first year of the 3-year study, we completed surveys of 41 Level 1 (i.e., the least intensive level) islands, and established permanent plots in two and three islands of Levels 2 and 4 intensity, respectively. Tree species richness and structural complexity was highest in Shark Slough “hammocks”, while islands in Northeast Shark Slough and Water Conservation Area 3B, which receive heavy human use, were simpler, more park-like communities. Initial monitoring of soil moisture in Level 4 hammocks indicated considerable local variation, presumably associated with antecedent rainfall and current water levels in the adjacent marsh. Tree islands throughout the study area were impacted significantly by Hurricanes Katrina and Wilma in 2005, but appear to be recovering rapidly. As the project continues to include more islands and repeated measurements, we expect to develop a better grasp of tree island dynamics across the Everglades ecosystem, especially with respect to moisture relations and water levels in the adjacent marsh. The detailed progress report which follows is also available online at http://www.fiu.edu/~serp1/projects/treeislands/tree_islands_2005_annual_report.pd

Monitoring of Tree Island Conditions in the Southern Everglades: The Effects of Hurricanes and Hydrology on the Status and Population Dynamics of Sixteen Tropical Hardwood Hammock Tree Islands

In 2005 we began a multi-year intensive monitoring and assessment study of tropical hardwood hammocks within two distinct hydrologic regions in Everglades National Park, under funding from the CERP Monitoring and Assessment Program. In serving as an Annual Report for 2010, this document, reports in detail on the population dynamics and status of tropical hardwood hammocks in Shark Slough and adjacent marl prairies during a 4-year period between 2005 and 2009. 2005-09 was a period that saw a marked drawdown in marsh water levels (July 2006 - July 2008), and an active hurricane season in 2005 with two hurricanes, Hurricane Katrina and Wilma, making landfall over south Florida. Thus much of our focus here is on the responses of these forests to annual variation in marsh water level, and on recovery from disturbance. Most of the data are from 16 rectangular permanent plots of 225-625 m2 , with all trees mapped and tagged, and bi-annual sampling of the tree, sapling, shrub, and herb layer in a nested design. At each visit, canopy photos were taken and later analyzed for determination of interannual variation in leaf area index and canopy openness. Three of the plots were sampled at 2-month intervals, in order to gain a better idea of seasonal dynamics in litterfall and litter turnover. Changes in canopy structure were monitored through a vertical line intercept method.

Effects of flooding regime and woody bamboos on tree community dynamics in a section of tropical semideciduous forest in South-Eastern Brazil

The influence of a population of the understorey woody bamboo Merostachys riedeliana and different flooding regimes on tree community dynamics in a section of tropical semideciduous forest in South-Eastern Brazil was examined. A forest section with an area of 1.6 ha composed of 71 adjacent plots was located on a slope ending at the river margin. The section was divided into five topographical sectors according to the mean duration of river floods. In 1991 and 1998 all trees with a diameter at the base of the trunk greater than or equal to 5 cm were measured, identified and tagged, and all live bamboo culms were counted. Annualised estimates of the rates of tree mortality and recruitment, gain and loss of tree basal area, and change in bamboo density were calculated for each of the 71 plots and five topographical sectors as well as for diameter classes and tree species. To segregate patterns arising from spatially autocorrelated events, geostatistical analyses were used prior to statistical comparisons and correlations. In general, mortality rates were not compensated by recruitment rates but there was a net increase in basal area in all sectors, suggesting that the tree community as a whole was in a building phase. Tree community dynamics of the point bar forest (Depression and Levee sectors) differed from that of the upland forest (Ridgetop, Middle Slope and Lower Slope sectors) in the extremely high rates of gain in basal area. The predominant and specialised species, Inga vera and Salix humboldtiana, are probably favoured by relaxed competition in an environment stressed by long-lasting floods. In the upland forest, mortality rates were highest at the Middle Slope, particularly for smaller trees, while recruitment rates were lowest. As bamboo clumps were concentrated in this sector, the locally higher instability in the tree community probably resulted from the direct interference of bamboos. The density of bamboo culms in the upland forest was negatively correlated with the rates of tree recruitment and gain in basal area, and positively correlated with tree mortality rates. Bamboos therefore seemed to restrict the recruitment, growth and survival of trees.

Population dynamics of flaviviruses revealed by molecular phylogenies.

The phylogeny of 123 complete envelope gene sequences was reconstructed in order to understand the evolution of tick- and mosquito-borne flaviviruses. An analysis of phylogenetic tree structure reveals a continual and asymmetric branching process in the tick-borne flaviviruses, compared with an explosive radiation in the last 200 years in viruses transmitted by mosquitoes. The distinction between these two viral groups probably reflects differences in modes of dispersal, propagation, and changes in the size of host populations. The most serious implication of this work is that growing human populations are being exposed to an expanding range of increasingly diverse viral strains.

Population dynamics: seasonal variation of phytoplankton functional groups in brazilian reservoirs (Billings and Guarapiranga, São Paulo)

Phytoplankton may function as a "sensor" of changes in aquatic environment and responds rapidly to such changes. In freshwaters, coexistence of species that have similar ecological requirements and show the same environmental requirements frequently occurs; such species groups are named functional groups. The use of phytoplankton functional groups to evaluate these changes has proven to be very useful and effective. Thus, the aim of this study was to evaluate the occurrence of functional groups of phytoplankton in two reservoirs (Billings and Guarapiranga) that supply water to millions of people in São Paulo city Metropolitan Area, southeastern Brazil. Surface water samples were collected monthly and physical, chemical and biological (quantitative and qualitative analyses of the phytoplankton) were performed. The highest biovolume (mm³.L-1) of the descriptor species and functional groups were represented respectively by Anabaena circinalis Rabenh. (H1), Microcystis aeruginosa (Kützing) Kützing (L M/M) and Mougeotia sp. (T) in the Guarapiranga reservoir and Cylindrospermopsis raciborskii (Wolosz.) Seen. and Subba Raju (S N), Microcystis aeruginosa and M. panniformis Komárek et al. (L M/M), Planktothrix agardhii (Gom.) Anagn. and Komárek and P. cf. clathrata (Skuja) Anagn. and Komárek (S1) in the Billings reservoir. The environmental factors that most influenced the phytoplankton dynamics were water temperature, euphotic zone, turbidity, conductivity, pH, dissolved oxygen, nitrate and total phosphorous.

Notes on Population Dynamics of Amblyomma Ticks (Acari: Ixodidae) in Brazil

Previous population dynamics data, generated for Amblyomma parvum Aragao and Aniblyomma cajennense (Fabricius) in Argentina and southeastern Brazil, have indicated that these ticks complete I generation per year, with larvae predominating in autumn, nymphs in winter, and mostly adults during spring and summer. The present study reports population dynamics data for free-living Amblyomma spp. ticks in northern Brazil (Amazon forest, latitude 10 degrees S, 63 degrees W), and for Amblyomma spp. ticks collected oil birds in Southeastern Brazil (latitude 23 degrees S, 45 degrees W). In northern Brazil, adult ticks predominated from mid-spring to mid-autumn, larvae predominated in early winter, and nymphs from mid-winter to mid-spring. Seven Amblyomma spp. were identified, although A. cajannense predominated in I of the 2 sites sampled. In southeastern Brazil, larval infestations on birds peaked in autumn, followed by a nymphal infestation peak in late winter. At least 32% and 75% of these larvae and nymphs, respectively, were identified as Amblyomma longirostre (Koch). Similar to previous work, the present study showed that Amblyomma spp. larvae and nymphs predominated during autumn-winter months, and mostly adults during spring-summer months, a pattern compatible with 1 genration/yr, even at latitude 10 degrees S in northern Brazil.

Role of noise in population dynamics cycles

Noise is an intrinsic feature of population dynamics and plays a crucial role in oscillations called phase-forgetting quasicycles by converting damped into sustained oscillations. This function of noise becomes evident when considering Langevin equations whose deterministic part yields only damped oscillations. We formulate here a consistent and systematic approach to population dynamics, leading to a Fokker-Planck equation and the associate Langevin equations in accordance with this conceptual framework, founded on stochastic lattice-gas models that describe spatially structured predator-prey systems. Langevin equations in the population densities and predator-prey pair density are derived in two stages. First, a birth-and-death stochastic process in the space of prey and predator numbers and predator-prey pair number is obtained by a contraction method that reduces the degrees of freedom. Second, a van Kampen expansion in the inverse of system size is then performed to get the Fokker-Planck equation. We also study the time correlation function, the asymptotic behavior of which is used to characterize the transition from the cyclic coexistence of species to the ordinary coexistence.

Impact of natural epizootics of the fungal pathogen Neozygites floridana (Zygomycetes: Entomophthorales) on population dynamics of Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae) in tomato and nightshade

The tomato red spider mite, Tetranychus evansi (Acari: Tetranychidae) was recently introduced in Africa and Europe, where there is an increasing interest in using natural enemies to control this pest on solanaceous crops. Two promising candidates for the control of T. evansi were identified in South America, the fungal pathogen, Neozygites floridana and the predatory mite Phytoseiulus longipes. In this study, population dynamics of T. evansi and its natural enemies together with the influence of environmental conditions on these organisms were evaluated during four crop cycles in the field and in a protected environment on nightshade and tomato plants with and without application of chemical pesticides. N. floridana was the only natural enemy found associated with T. evansi in the four crop cycles under protected environment but only in the last crop cycle in the field. In the treatments where the fungus appeared, reduction of mite populations was drastic. N. floridana appeared in tomato plants even when the population density of T. evansi was relatively low (less than 10 mites/3.14 cm(2) of leaf area) and even at this low population density, the fungus maintained infection rates greater than 50%. The application of pesticides directly affected the fungus by delaying epizootic initiation and contributing to lower infection rates than unsprayed treatments. Rainfalls did not have an apparent impact on mite populations. These results indicate that the pathogenic fungus, N. floridana can play a significant role in the population dynamics of T. evansi, especially under protected environment, and has the potential to control this pest in classical biological control programs. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.