Bayesian Networks and the Value of the Evidence for the Forensic Two-Trace Transfer Problem

Forensic scientists face increasingly complex inference problems for evaluating likelihood ratios (LRs) for an appropriate pair of propositions. Up to now, scientists and statisticians have derived LR formulae using an algebraic approach. However, this approach reaches its limits when addressing cases with an increasing number of variables and dependence relationships between these variables. In this study, we suggest using a graphical approach, based on the construction of Bayesian networks (BNs). We first construct a BN that captures the problem, and then deduce the expression for calculating the LR from this model to compare it with existing LR formulae. We illustrate this idea by applying it to the evaluation of an activity level LR in the context of the two-trace transfer problem. Our approach allows us to relax assumptions made in previous LR developments, produce a new LR formula for the two-trace transfer problem and generalize this scenario to n traces.

Economic restructuring in Latin America in the face of the foreign debt and the external transfer problem

Includes bibliography

Modelos cinéticos da equação linearizada de Boltzmann e um problema de transferência de calor em microescala

Neste trabalho, um problema de transferência de calor da dinâmica de gases rarefeitos, causado pela diferença de temperaturas nas superfícies de um canal, é abordado. O problema é formulado através dos modelos cinéticos BGK, S e Gross-Jackson da equação linearizada de Boltzmann e resolvido, de forma unificada, pelo método analítico de ordenadas discretas (método ADO). Resultados numéricos para as perturbações de densidade e temperatura e também para o fluxo de calor são apresentados e comparados, mostrando que não se pode dizer que algum dos três modelos seja uma melhor aproximação da solução aos resultados da equação linearizada de Boltzmann.

Dual resource transfers and interruption in external debt service

Externai debt service requires a dual resource transfer. Trade surpluses have to be generated in order to make foreign exchange revenues available for debt repayment. In addition, with developing countries' externai debt being largely a public liability, debt service requires that resources can be effectively transferred from the private to the public sector. This paper derives a statistical model for dealing with dual constraints in the presence of binary dependent variables and applies it to the dual resource transfer problem. The results from the estimation of the model for a sample of 31 middle-income developing countries in the period of 1980 to 1990, strongly support the hypothesis that both externai and fiscal constraints are important in explaining externai debt service disruptions.

Modelo de Marcus, elementos de matriz de tunelamento, efeitos de solvente e controle nuclear em reações de transferência de elétrons

This paper aims to give an initial presentation to physics students of the area of electron transfer, addressing its major aspects. The subject is then presented in an introductory way, highlighting and discussing the key points. Primarily, the problem is approached in a simplified manner through a two-state system, and aspects of calculating the matrix-element are discussed. Then, the electron transfer problem, influenced by nuclear reaction coordinates, is addressed and treated by the Marcus theory. Time scales and the concepts of adiabatic and nonadiabatic phenomena are discussed in the context of electron transfer. The classical, semi-classical and quantum formalisms of for the nuclear reactions coordinates are presented, and aspects of solvents are also discussed. Finally, we conclude by examining some recent examples of problems discussed in the literature.

Three-dimensional Vortex Structures on Heated Micro-lattice in a Gas

This paper addresses the microscale heat transfer problem from heated lattice to the gas. A micro-device for enhanced heat transfer is presented and numerically investigated. Thermal creep induces 3-D vortex structures in the vicinity of the lattice. The gas flow is in the slip flow regime (Knudsen number Kn⩽0.1Kn⩽0.1). The simulations are performed using slip flow Navier–Stokes equations with boundary condition formulations proposed by Maxwell and Smoluchowski. In this study the wire thicknesses and distances of the heated lattice are varied. The surface geometrical properties alter significantly heat flux through the surface.

Analytical solution to the one-dimensional non-uniform absorption of solar radiation in uncoated and coated single glass panes

The analytical solution to the one-dimensional absorption–conduction heat transfer problem inside a single glass pane is presented, which correctly takes into account all the relevant physical phenomena: the appearance of multiple reflections, the spectral distribution of solar radiation, the spectral dependence of optical properties, the presence of possible coatings, the non-uniform nature of radiation absorption, and the diffusion of heat by conduction across the glass pane. Additionally to the well established and known direct absorptance αe, the derived solution introduces a new spectral quantity called direct absorptance moment βe, that indicates where in the glass pane is the absorption of radiation actually taking place. The theoretical and numerical comparison of the derived solution with existing approximate thermal models for the absorption–conduction problem reveals that the latter ones work best for low-absorbing uncoated single glass panes, something not necessarily fulfilled by modern glazings.

Asymptotic analysis of vertical geothermal boreholes in the limit of slowly varyng heat injection rates

Theoretical models for the thermal response of vertical geothermal boreholes often assume that the characteristic time of variation of the heat injection rate is much larger than the characteristic diffusion time across the borehole. In this case, heat transfer inside the borehole and in its immediate surroundings is quasi-steady in the first approximation, while unsteady effects enter only in the far field. Previous studies have exploited this disparity of time scales, incorporating approximate matching conditions to couple the near-borehole region with the outer unsteady temperatura field. In the present work matched asymptotic expansion techniques are used to analyze the heat transfer problem, delivering a rigorous derivation of the true matching condition between the two regions and of the correct definition of the network of thermal resistances that represents the quasi-steady solution near the borehole. Additionally, an apparent temperature due to the unsteady far field is identified that needs to be taken into account by the near-borehole region for the correct computation of the heat injection rate. This temperature differs from the usual mean borehole temperature employed in the literatura.

Managing supply chain knowledge in the new product development process:a social network analysis approach

The aim of this paper is to propose a conceptual framework for studying the knowledge transfer problem within the supply chain. The social network analysis (SNA) is presented as a useful tool to study knowledge networks within supply chain, to visualize knowledge flows and to identify the accumulating knowledge nodes of the networks. © 2011 IEEE.

Dynamics of an axisymmetric electromagnetic 'crucible' melting

Different industrial induction melting processes involve free surface and melt-solid interface of the liquid metal subject to dynamic change during the technological operation. Simulation of the liquid metal dynamics requires to solve the non-linear, coupled hydrodynamic-electromagnetic-heat transfer problem accounting for the time development of the liquid metal free boundary with a suitable turbulent viscosity model. The present paper describes a numerical solution method applicable for various axisymmetric induction melting processes, such as, crucible with free top surface, levitation, semi-levitation, cold crucible and similar melting techniques. The presented results in the cases of semi-levitation and crucible with free top surface meltings demonstrate oscillating transient behaviour of the free metal surface indicating the presence of gravity-inertial-electromagnetic waves which are coupled to the internal fluid flow generated by both the rotational and potential parts of the electromagnetic force.

Problems of optimal transportation on the circle and their mechanical applications

We consider a mechanical problem concerning a 2D axisymmetric body moving forward on the plane and making slow turns of fixed magnitude about its axis of symmetry. The body moves through a medium of non-interacting particles at rest, and collisions of particles with the body's boundary are perfectly elastic (billiard-like). The body has a blunt nose: a line segment orthogonal to the symmetry axis. It is required to make small cavities with special shape on the nose so as to minimize its aerodynamic resistance. This problem of optimizing the shape of the cavities amounts to a special case of the optimal mass transfer problem on the circle with the transportation cost being the squared Euclidean distance. We find the exact solution for this problem when the amplitude of rotation is smaller than a fixed critical value, and give a numerical solution otherwise. As a by-product, we get explicit description of the solution for a class of optimal transfer problems on the circle.

Analysis of heat transfer and entropy generation for a thermally developing Brinkman–Brinkman forced convection problem in a rectangular duct with isoflux walls

Heat transfer and entropy generation analysis of the thermally developing forced convection in a porous-saturated duct of rectangular cross-section, with walls maintained at a constant and uniform heat flux, is investigated based on the Brinkman flow model. The classical Galerkin method is used to obtain the fully developed velocity distribution. To solve the thermal energy equation, with the effects of viscous dissipation being included, the Extended Weighted Residuals Method (EWRM) is applied. The local (three dimensional) temperature field is solved by utilizing the Green’s function solution based on the EWRM where symbolic algebra is being used for convenience in presentation. Following the computation of the temperature field, expressions are presented for the local Nusselt number and the bulk temperature as a function of the dimensionless longitudinal coordinate, the aspect ratio, the Darcy number, the viscosity ratio, and the Brinkman number. With the velocity and temperature field being determined, the Second Law (of Thermodynamics) aspect of the problem is also investigated. Approximate closed form solutions are also presented for two limiting cases of MDa values. It is observed that decreasing the aspect ratio and MDa values increases the entropy generation rate.

Three-body problem, its Lagrangian points and how to exploit them using an alternative transfer to L4 and L5

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)