3G network traffic sources measurement and analysis

In this paper, we show statistical analyses of several types of traffic sources in a 3G network, namely voice, video and data sources. For each traffic source type, measurements were collected in order to, on the one hand, gain better understanding of the statistical characteristics of the sources and, on the other hand, enable forecasting traffic behaviour in the network. The latter can be used to estimate service times and quality of service parameters. The probability density function, mean, variance, mean square deviation, skewness and kurtosis of the interarrival times are estimated by Wolfram Mathematica and Crystal Ball statistical tools. Based on evaluation of packet interarrival times, we show how the gamma distribution can be used in network simulations and in evaluation of available capacity in opportunistic systems. As a result, from our analyses, shape and scale parameters of gamma distribution are generated. Data can be applied also in dynamic network configuration in order to avoid potential network congestions or overflows. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

A redesign of a road traffic accident reporting system using business process simulation

Business process simulation (BPS) is used to evaluate the effect of the redesign of a police road traffic accident (RTA) reporting system. The new system aims to provide timely statistical analysis of traffic behaviour to government bodies and to enable more effective utilisation of traffic police personnel. The simulation method is demonstrated in the context of assisting process change enabled by the use of information systems in an organisation in which there had been a historically mixed pattern of success in this activity.

0-visio - teoriasta käytännöksi : Varsinais-Suomen ja Satakunnan maakuntien liikenneturvallisuussuunnitelma 2012-2016

Liikenneturvallisuus syntyy eri osapuolten toiminnan ja yhteistyön tuloksena. Poliitikot päättävät yhteiskunnan suunnittelusta ja liikennejärjestelmästä, suunnittelijat toteuttavat poliitikkojen tekemiä päätöksiä, virkamiehet laativat lakiehdotuksia ja sääntöjä, ELY-keskus ja kunnat vastaavat teistä ja niiden kunnosta, poliisi valvoo liikennesääntöjen noudattamista, Liikenneturva tiedottaa ja kouluttaa, yritykset, yhteisöt ja yksityiset ihmiset tilaavat ja käyttävät kuljetuspalveluja ja kaikki kuntalaiset osallistuvat liikenteeseen. Liikenneturvallisuussuunnitelma toimii työkaluna Varsinais-Suomen ja Satakunnan liikenneturvallisuustyössä. Alueellisen liikenneturvallisuustyön nollavisio ja tavoitteet asetettiin valtakunnallisen liikenneturvallisuussuunnitelman, alueen nykytila-analyysin sekä suunnitelman laadinnan aikana sidosryhmien kanssa käydyn keskustelun pohjalta. Nollavision mukaan kenenkään ei tarvitse kuolla tai loukkaantua vakavasti liikenteessä. Lisäksi visiona on vastuullinen liikkuminen, joka myös koetaan turvalliseksi. Seitsemän kohdan ohjelmaan nollavision toteuttamiseksi on tiivistetty tärkeimmät toimet. Yksilöityihin toimenpiteisiin on kirjattu maankäytön suunnitteluun, kestävään liikkumiseen, liikenneympäristöön ja liikennekäyttäytymiseen liittyviä toimenpiteitä. Lisäksi liikenneturvallisuusyhteistyöhön kohdistuvia toimenpiteitä sisältyy suunnitelmaan. Toimenpiteiden toteuttamisen vastuu- ja yhteistyötahoja on useita. Toimenpiteet kohdistuvat alueen tielläliikkujiin, organisaatioihin ja päätöksentekijöihin. Pitkän aikavälin ja valtakunnallisen tason toimenpiteet edesauttavat liikenneturvallisuuden kehittymistä toivottuun suuntaan. Vaikutustarkastelu osoittaa, että asetettujen tavoitteiden saavuttaminen vaatii laajaa keinovalikoimaa, usean toimijan välistä yhteistyötä sekä resursseja liikenneturvallisuustyöhön. Tämä liikenneturvallisuussuunnitelma haastaa eri hallinnonalat, viranomaiset, järjestöt ja yritykset omalta osaltaan toteuttamaan toimia, jotka vievät kohti nollavisiota. Suunnitelman toteutuminen edellyttää, että sillä on kuntien ja päättäjien tuki. Varsinais-Suomen ja Satakunnan liikenteen tulevaisuus kehittyy suunnitelman mukaisesti, jos liikenteen vastuunkantajat sitoutuvat suunnitelman vision periaatteisiin ja pitävät elämää suojelevia arvoja toimintansa perustana.

Triggering Solar-Powered Vehicle Activated Signs using Self Organising Maps with K-means

Solar-powered vehicle activated signs (VAS) are speed warning signs powered by batteries that are recharged by solar panels. These signs are more desirable than other active warning signs due to the low cost of installation and the minimal maintenance requirements. However, one problem that can affect a solar-powered VAS is the limited power capacity available to keep the sign operational. In order to be able to operate the sign more efficiently, it is proposed that the sign be appropriately triggered by taking into account the prevalent conditions. Triggering the sign depends on many factors such as the prevailing speed limit, road geometry, traffic behaviour, the weather and the number of hours of daylight. The main goal of this paper is therefore to develop an intelligent algorithm that would help optimize the trigger point to achieve the best compromise between speed reduction and power consumption. Data have been systematically collected whereby vehicle speed data were gathered whilst varying the value of the trigger speed threshold. A two stage algorithm is then utilized to extract the trigger speed value. Initially the algorithm employs a Self-Organising Map (SOM), to effectively visualize and explore the properties of the data that is then clustered in the second stage using K-means clustering method. Preliminary results achieved in the study indicate that using a SOM in conjunction with K-means method is found to perform well as opposed to direct clustering of the data by K-means alone. Using a SOM in the current case helped the algorithm determine the number of clusters in the data set, which is a frequent problem in data clustering.

Potential effect of marine traffic on white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris) distribution and behaviour in Faxaflói Bay, southwest Iceland

Faxaflói bay is a short, wide and shallow bay situated in the southwest of Iceland. Although hosting a rather high level of marine traffic, this area is inhabited by many different species of cetaceans, among which the white-beaked dolphin (Lagenorhynchus albirostris), found here all year-round. This study aimed to evaluate the potential effect of increasing marine traffic on white-beaked dolphins distribution and behaviour, and to determine whether or not a variation in sighting frequencies have occurred throughout years (2008 – 2014). Data on sightings and on behaviour, as well as photographic one, has been collected daily taking advantage of the whale-watching company “Elding” operating in the bay. Results have confirmed the importance of this area for white-beaked dolphins, which have shown a certain level of site fidelity. Despite the high level of marine traffic, this dolphin appears to tolerate the presence of boats: no differences in encounter durations and locations over the study years have occurred, even though with increasing number of vessels, an increase in avoidance strategies has been displayed. Furthermore, seasonal differences in probabilities of sightings, with respect to the time of the day, have been found, leading to suggest the existence of a daily cycle of their movements and activities within the bay. This study has also described a major decline in sighting rates throughout years raising concern about white-beaked dolphin conservation status in Icelandic waters. It is therefore highly recommended a new dedicated survey to be conducted in order to document the current population estimate, to better investigate on the energetic costs that chronic exposure to disturbances may cause, and to plan a more suitable conservation strategy for white-beaked dolphin around Iceland.

Modelling the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches using an expert system approach for risk management on high alpine traffic roads

The presented approach describes a model for a rule-based expert system calculating the temporal variability of the release of wet snow avalanches, using the assumption of avalanche triggering without the loading of new snow. The knowledge base of the model is created by using investigations on the system behaviour of wet snow avalanches in the Italian Ortles Alps, and is represented by a fuzzy logic rule-base. Input parameters of the expert system are numerical and linguistic variables, measurable meteorological and topographical factors and observable characteristics of the snow cover. Output of the inference method is the quantified release disposition for wet snow avalanches. Combining topographical parameters and the spatial interpolation of the calculated release disposition a hazard index map is dynamically generated. Furthermore, the spatial and temporal variability of damage potential on roads exposed to wet snow avalanches can be quantified, expressed by the number of persons at risk. The application of the rule base to the available data in the study area generated plausible results. The study demonstrates the potential for the application of expert systems and fuzzy logic in the field of natural hazard monitoring and risk management.

Dynamic behaviour of underspanned suspension road bridges under traffic loads

Underspanned suspension bridges are structures with important economical and aesthetic advantages, due to their high structural efficiency. However, road bridges of this typology are still uncommon because of limited knowledge about this structural system. In particular, there remains some uncertainty over the dynamic behaviour of these bridges, due to their extreme lightness. The vibrations produced by vehicles crossing the viaduct are one of the main concerns. In this work, traffic-induced dynamic effects on this kind of viaduct are addressed by means of vehicle-bridge dynamic interaction models. A finite element method is used for the structure, and multibody dynamic models for the vehicles, while interaction is represented by means of the penalty method. Road roughness is included in this model in such a way that the fact that profiles under left and right tyres are different, but not independent, is taken into account. In addition, free software {PRPgenerator) to generate these profiles is presented in this paper. The structural dynamic sensitivity of underspanned suspension bridges was found to be considerable, as well as the dynamic amplification factors and deck accelerations. It was also found that vehicle speed has a relevant influence on the results. In addition, the impact of bridge deformation on vehicle vibration was addressed, and the effect on the comfort of vehicle users was shown to be negligible.

Simulation of air traffic controllers' behaviour using the operator choice model

The Operator Choice Model (OCM) was developed to model the behaviour of operators attending to complex tasks involving interdependent concurrent activities, such as in Air Traffic Control (ATC). The purpose of the OCM is to provide a flexible framework for modelling and simulation that can be used for quantitative analyses in human reliability assessment, comparison between human computer interaction (HCI) designs, and analysis of operator workload. The OCM virtual operator is essentially a cycle of four processes: Scan Classify Decide Action Perform Action. Once a cycle is complete, the operator will return to the Scan process. It is also possible to truncate a cycle and return to Scan after each of the processes. These processes are described using Continuous Time Probabilistic Automata (CTPA). The details of the probability and timing models are specific to the domain of application, and need to be specified using domain experts. We are building an application of the OCM for use in ATC. In order to develop a realistic model we are calibrating the probability and timing models that comprise each process using experimental data from a series of experiments conducted with student subjects. These experiments have identified the factors that influence perception and decision making in simplified conflict detection and resolution tasks. This paper presents an application of the OCM approach to a simple ATC conflict detection experiment. The aim is to calibrate the OCM so that its behaviour resembles that of the experimental subjects when it is challenged with the same task. Its behaviour should also interpolate when challenged with scenarios similar to those used to calibrate it. The approach illustrated here uses logistic regression to model the classifications made by the subjects. This model is fitted to the calibration data, and provides an extrapolation to classifications in scenarios outside of the calibration data. A simple strategy is used to calibrate the timing component of the model, and the results for reaction times are compared between the OCM and the student subjects. While this approach to timing does not capture the full complexity of the reaction time distribution seen in the data from the student subjects, the mean and the tail of the distributions are similar.

Traffic Offered Behaviour Regarding Target QOS Parameters in Network Dimensioning

We consider a model of overall telecommunication network with virtual circuits switching, in stationary state, with Poisson input flow, repeated calls, limited number of homogeneous terminals and 8 types of losses. One of the main problems of network dimensioning/redimensioning is estimation of traffic offered in network because it reflects on finding of necessary number of circuit switching lines on the basis of the consideration of detailed users manners and target Quality of Service (QoS). In this paper we investigate the behaviour of the traffic offered in a network regarding QoS variables: “probability of blocked switching” and “probability of finding B-terminals busy”. Numerical dependencies are shown graphically. A network dimensioning task (NDT) is formulated, solvability of the NDT and the necessary conditions for analytical solution are researched as well. International Journal "Information Technologies and Knowledge" Vol.2 / 2008 174 The received results make the network dimensioning/redimensioning, based on QoS requirements easily, due to clearer understanding of important variables behaviour. The described approach is applicable directly for every (virtual) circuit switching telecommunication system e.g. GSM, PSTN, ISDN and BISDN. For packet - switching networks, at various layers, proposed approach may be used as a comparison basis and when they work in circuit switching mode (e.g. VoIP).

Effects of vessel traffic on relative abundance and behaviour of cetaceans : the case of the bottlenose dolphins in the Archipelago de La Maddalena, north-western Mediterranean sea

Acknowledgements This study was part of the Tursiops Project of the Dolphin Research Centre of Caprera, La Maddalena. Financial and logistical support was provided by the Centro Turistico Studentesco (CTS) and by the National Park of the Archipelago de La Maddalena. We thank the Natural Reserve of Bocche di Bonifacio for the support provided during data collection. The authors thank the numerous volunteers of the Caprera Dolphin Research Centre and especially Marco Ferraro, Mirko Ugo, Angela Pira and Maurizio Piras whose assistance during field observation and skills as a boat driver were invaluable.

Women drivers' behaviour, socio-demographic characteristics and accidents

The purpose of this study was to examine factors which affect driving behaviour and accident rates in women in Australia. Two groups of women (aged 18-23 and 45-50 years) participating in the Australian Longitudinal Study on Women's Health, completed a mailed questionnaire on driver behaviour and road accidents. Self reported accident rates in the last 3 years were 1.87 per 100 000 km for the young drivers (n = 1199) and 0.59 per 100 000 km for the mid-age drivers (n = 1564); most accidents involved damage only, not injury. Mean scores for lapses obtained using the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire, were similar in the two age groups and similar to those found in other studies. In contrast, scores for errors and violations for the young women were higher than for the mid-age group and previous reports using the same instruments. Riskier driving behaviour among young women was associated with stress and habitual alcohol consumption. In the mid-age group, poorer driver behaviour scores were related to higher levels of education, feeling rushed, higher habitual alcohol consumption and lower life satisfaction scores. Accident rates in both groups were significantly related to lapses. Women born in non-English speaking countries had significantly higher risk of accidents compared to Australian-born women: relative risk = 3.40, 95% confidence interval (1.93, 5.98) for the young drivers; relative risk = 1.77, 95% confidence interval (1.11, 2.83) for mid-age drivers. These findings support the need for road safety campaigns targeted at young women to reduce dangerous driving practices, such as speeding,'tail gating' and overtaking on the inside. There is also a need for further research to understand how lifestyle characteristics are associated with higher risk of accidents and to explore factors which might account for the higher risk for women drivers who were born overseas. (C) 1999 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

An agent-based approach to modelling driver route choice behaviour under the influence of real-time information

This paper presents an agent-based approach to modelling individual driver behaviour under the influence of real-time traffic information. The driver behaviour models developed in this study are based on a behavioural survey of drivers which was conducted on a congested commuting corridor in Brisbane, Australia. Commuters' responses to travel information were analysed and a number of discrete choice models were developed to determine the factors influencing drivers' behaviour and their propensity to change route and adjust travel patterns. Based on the results obtained from the behavioural survey, the agent behaviour parameters which define driver characteristics, knowledge and preferences were identified and their values determined. A case study implementing a simple agent-based route choice decision model within a microscopic traffic simulation tool is also presented. Driver-vehicle units (DVUs) were modelled as autonomous software components that can each be assigned a set of goals to achieve and a database of knowledge comprising certain beliefs, intentions and preferences concerning the driving task. Each DVU provided route choice decision-making capabilities, based on perception of its environment, that were similar to the described intentions of the driver it represented. The case study clearly demonstrated the feasibility of the approach and the potential to develop more complex driver behavioural dynamics based on the belief-desire-intention agent architecture. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved.

Modifications of MCM-22 zeolite through sequential post-synthesis treatments. Implications on the acidic and catalytic behaviour

Desilication and a combination of alkaline followed by acid treatment were applied to MCM-22 zeolite using two different base concentrations. The samples were characterised by powder X-ray diffraction, Al-27 and Si-29 MAS-NMR spectroscopy, SEM, TEM and low temperature N-2 adsorption. The acidity of the samples was study through pyridine adsorption followed by FTIR spectroscopy and by the analyses of the hydroxyl region. The catalytic behaviour, anticipated by the effect of post-synthesis treatments on the acidity and space available inside the two internal pore systems was evaluated by using the model reaction of m-xylene transformation. The generation of mesoporosity was achieved upon alkaline treatment with 0.05 M NaOH solution and practically no additional gain was obtained when the more concentrate solution, 0.1 M, was used. Instead, Al extraction takes place along with Si, as shown by Si-29 and Al-27 MAS-NMR data, followed by Al deposition as extraframework species. Samples submitted to alkaline plus acid treatments present distinct behaviour. When the lowest NaOH solution was used no relevant effect was observed on the textural characteristics. Additionally, when the acid treatment was performed on an already fragilized MCM-22 structure, due to previous desilication with 0.1 M NaOH solution, the extraction of Al from both internal pore systems promotes their interconnection, evolving from a 2-D to a 3-D porous structure. This transformation has a marked effect in the catalytic behaviour, allowing an increase of m-xylene conversion as a consequence of an easier and faster molecular traffic in the 3-D structure. On the other hand, the continuous deposition of extraframework Al species inside the pores leads to a shape selective effect that privileges the formation of the more valuable isomer p-xylene.

Behaviour evaluation for risk-taking adolescents (BERTA): an easy to use and assess instrument to detect adolescent risky behaviours in a clinical setting.

To create an instrument to be used in an outpatient clinic to detect adolescents prone to risk-taking behaviours. Based on previous research, five identified variables (relationship with parents and teachers, liking going to school, average grades, and level of religiosity) were used to create a screening tool to detect at least one of ten risky behaviours (tobacco, alcohol, cannabis and other illegal drugs use; sexual intercourse and sexual risky behaviour; driving while intoxicated, riding with an intoxicated driver, not always using a seat belt, and not always using a helmet). The instrument was tested using the Barcelona Adolescent Health Survey 1993. A Receiver Operating Characteristics curve was used to find the best cut-off point between high and low risk score. Odds ratios and 95% confidence intervals were calculated to detect at least one risky behaviour and for each individual behaviour. In order to assess its predictive value, the analysis was repeated using the Barcelona Adolescent Health Survey 1999. In both cases, analyses were conducted for the whole sample and for younger and older adolescents. Adolescents with a high-risk score were more likely to take at least one risky behaviour both when the whole sample was analysed and by age groups. With very few exceptions, the Behaviour Evaluation for Risk-Taking Adolescents showed significant odds ratios for each individual variable. CONCLUSION: The Behaviour Evaluation for Risk-Taking Adolescents has shown its potential as an easy to use instrument to screen for risk-taking behaviours. Future research must aim towards assessing this instrument's predictive value in the clinical setting and it's application to other populations.