Theory of history,

Mode of access: Internet.

Evolutionary theory of history

Several attempts have been made recently to apply Darwinian evolutionary theory to the study of culture change and social history. The essential elements in such a theory are that variations occur in population, and that a process of selective retention operates during their replication and transmission. Location of such variable units in the semantic structure of cognition provides the individual psychological basis for an evolutionary theory of history. Selection operates on both the level of cognition and on its phenotypic expression in action in relation to individual preferred sources of psychological satisfaction. Social power comprises the principal selective forces within the unintended consequences of action and through the struggle of individuals and groups in pursuit of opposing interests. The implication for historiography are methodological in that evolutionary theory of history sharpens the focus of explanatory situational analysis, and interpretive in that it provides a paradigmatic metanarrative for the understanding of historical change.

Theory and processes of history,

"Of the two books included in this volume, the first, entitled Theory of history, was originally published by the Yale university press in 1925; the second, The processes of history, was likewise issued by the Yale university press, but in 1918."-Pref.

Providence and method : Herbert Butterfield and the interpretation of history

This thesis presents an extended critical analysis of the methodological thought of the Cambridge historian Herbert Butterfield (1900-1979). It is based on the full range of his published works, as well as unpublished material. It is a contribution to the history of historiography, and to the theory of history. The thesis concentrates on the relationship between Butterfield’s views on historical research and historiographical narration, and his concept of a ‘historical process’ which was the expression of a ‘providential order’. The principal problem in Butterfield’s writings is the contradiction between his advocacy of a ‘technical history’ seen as free and independent of any interpretative presupposition, and his belief in Providence and its utilisation in the course of his historiography. Firstly, the thesis argues that Butterfield employs his own presuppositions even without making explicit references to his belief in Providence. Secondly, it explains why he embraced and advocated two contradictory standpoints. Butterfield’s position is best clarified with reference to the content of his Christian beliefs. It is argued that Butterfield regarded all non-Christian interpretations of history as distorting oversimplifications. They were for him not fully scientific and rigorous, because they selected some phenomenon, or principle, or institution arising within human history and made it the central interpretative principle. He saw his own practice as exempt from this criticism. This thesis argues that Butterfield’s position is nevertheless interpretative. However, it is argued that Butterfield’s critique of ideologically based historiographic distortions and oversimplifications is important in the assessment of rival interpretations of history.

Temporalization of History and Methodological Perspectivism

This essay aims to explore the issue of methodologic perspectivism in Kosselleck’s thought considering as cornerstone the concept of temporalization. The first section links the concepts of temporalization and secularization introducing beforehand philosophies of the history from Sattelzeit time. Then the text focuses on reconstructing the notion of temporalization based on an emerging tension between the language and the reality it describes. This article concludes bringing up the notion of ficcionality as a key element in Koselleck’s theory of history making up for the methodological deficits after this tension. The unifying thread of this essay is that the theoretical project of a conceptual history it is not only an analysis method but mainly a theory of modernity.

Essays on banking theory and history of financial arrangements

Esta tese contém dois capítulos, cada um lidando com a teoria e a história dos bancos e arranjos financeiros. No capítulo 1, busca-se extender uma economia Diamond-Dybvig com monitoramento imperfeito dos saques antecipados e realizar uma comparação do bem estar social em cada uma das alocações possíveis, como proposto em Presscott and Weinberg(2003). Esse monitoramento imperfeito é implementado a partir da comunicação indireta ( através de um meio de pagamento) entre os agentes e a máquina de depósitos e saques que é um agregado do setor produtivo e financeiro. A extensão consiste em estudar alocações onde uma fração dos agentes pode explorar o monitoramento imperfeito e fraudar a alocação contratada ao consumirem mais cedo além do limite, usando múltiplos meios de pagamento. Com a punição limitada no período de consumo tardio, essa nova alocação pode ser chamada de uma alocação separadora em contraste com as alocações agregadoras onde o agente com habilidade de fraudar é bloqueado por um meio de pagamento imune a fraude, mas custoso, ou por receber consumo futuro suficiente para tornar a fraude desinteressante. A comparação de bem estar na gama de parâmetros escolhida mostra que as alocações separadoras são ótimas para as economias com menor dotação e as agregadoras para as de nível intermediário e as ricas. O capítulo termina com um possível contexto histórico para o modelo, o qual se conecta com a narrativa histórica encontrada no capítulo 2. No capítulo 2 são exploradas as propriedade quantitativas de um sistema de previsão antecedente para crises financeiras, com as váriaveis sendo escolhidas a partir de um arcabouço de ``boom and bust'' descrito mais detalhadamente no apêndice 1. As principais variáveis são: o crescimento real nos preços de imóveis e ações, o diferencial entre os juros dos títulos governamentais de 10 anos e a taxa de 3 meses no mercado inter-bancário e o crescimento nos ativos totais do setor bancário. Essas variáveis produzem uma taxa mais elevada de sinais corretos para as crises bancárias recentes (1984-2008) do que os sistemas de indicadores antecedentes comparáveis. Levar em conta um risco de base crescente ( devido à tendência de acumulação de distorções no sistema de preços relativos em expansões anteriores) também provê informação e eleva o número de sinais corretos em países que não passaram por uma expansão creditícia e nos preços de ativos tão vigorosa.

Natural history, containing a theory of the earth, a general history of man, of the brute creation, and of vegetables, minerals, &c. &c. &c.

Translation of Histoire naturelle .

A history of the mathematical theory of probability from the time of Pascal to that of Laplace.

Mode of access: Internet.

The history and theory of money /

At head of title: University extension.

The stock market barometer : a study of its forecast value based on Charles H. Dow's theory of the price movement. With an analysis of the market and its history since 1897 /

Reprint of 1922 ed. with a new introduction.

A history of the mathematical theory of probability from the time of Pascal to that of Laplace.

Mode of access: Internet.

The retirement of national debts; the theory and history since the world war,

Published also as Studies in history, economics and public law, edited by the Faculty of political science of Columbia university, no. 374.

History of the theory of sovereignty since Rousseau /

Vita.

Buffon's Natural history, containing a theory of the earth, a general history of man, of the brute creation, and of vegetables, minerals, &c. &c.

At head of title: Barr's Buffon.