Logique et tests d'hypotheses: reflexions sur les problemes mal poses en econometrie

Dans ce texte, nous analysons les développements récents de l’économétrie à la lumière de la théorie des tests statistiques. Nous revoyons d’abord quelques principes fondamentaux de philosophie des sciences et de théorie statistique, en mettant l’accent sur la parcimonie et la falsifiabilité comme critères d’évaluation des modèles, sur le rôle de la théorie des tests comme formalisation du principe de falsification de modèles probabilistes, ainsi que sur la justification logique des notions de base de la théorie des tests (tel le niveau d’un test). Nous montrons ensuite que certaines des méthodes statistiques et économétriques les plus utilisées sont fondamentalement inappropriées pour les problèmes et modèles considérés, tandis que de nombreuses hypothèses, pour lesquelles des procédures de test sont communément proposées, ne sont en fait pas du tout testables. De telles situations conduisent à des problèmes statistiques mal posés. Nous analysons quelques cas particuliers de tels problèmes : (1) la construction d’intervalles de confiance dans le cadre de modèles structurels qui posent des problèmes d’identification; (2) la construction de tests pour des hypothèses non paramétriques, incluant la construction de procédures robustes à l’hétéroscédasticité, à la non-normalité ou à la spécification dynamique. Nous indiquons que ces difficultés proviennent souvent de l’ambition d’affaiblir les conditions de régularité nécessaires à toute analyse statistique ainsi que d’une utilisation inappropriée de résultats de théorie distributionnelle asymptotique. Enfin, nous soulignons l’importance de formuler des hypothèses et modèles testables, et de proposer des techniques économétriques dont les propriétés sont démontrables dans les échantillons finis.

Strategies to regulate myopia progression with contact lenses: a review

Purpose: Higher myopic refractive errors are associated with serious ocular complications that can put visual function at risk. There is respective interest in slowing and if possible stopping myopia progression before it reaches a level associated with increased risk of secondary pathology. The purpose of this report was to review our understanding of the rationale(s) and success of contact lenses (CLs) used to reduce myopia progression. Methods: A review commenced by searching the PubMed database. The inclusion criteria stipulated publications of clinical trials evaluating the efficacy of CLs in regulating myopia progression based on the primary endpoint of changes in axial length measurements and published in peerreviewed journals. Other publications from conference proceedings or patents were exceptionally considered when no peer-review articles were available. Results: The mechanisms that presently support myopia regulation with CLs are based on the change of relative peripheral defocus and changing the foveal image quality signal to potentially interfere with the accommodative system. Ten clinical trials addressing myopia regulation with CLs were reviewed, including corneal refractive therapy (orthokeratology), peripheral gradient lenses, and bifocal (dual-focus) and multifocal lenses. Conclusions: CLs were reported to be well accepted, consistent, and safe methods to address myopia regulation in children. Corneal refractive therapy (orthokeratology) is so far the method with the largest demonstrated efficacy in myopia regulation across different ethnic groups. However, factors such as patient convenience, the degree of initial myopia, and non-CL treatments may also be considered. The combination of different strategies (i.e., central defocus, peripheral defocus, spectral filters, pharmaceutical delivery, and active lens-borne illumination) in a single device will present further testable hypotheses exploring how different mechanisms can reinforce or compete with each other to improve or reduce myopia regulation with CLs.

Predicting community and ecosystem outcomes of mycorrhizal responses to global change.

Mycorrhizal symbioses link the biosphere with the lithosphere by mediating nutrient cycles and energy flow though terrestrial ecosystems. A more mechanistic understanding of these plant-fungal associations may help ameliorate anthropogenic changes to C and N cycles and biotic communities. We explore three interacting principles: (1) optimal allocation, (2) biotic context and (3) fungal adaptability that may help predict mycorrhizal responses to carbon dioxide enrichment, nitrogen eutrophication, invasive species and land-use changes. Plant-microbial feedbacks and thresholds are discussed in light of these principles with the goal of generating testable hypotheses. Ideas to develop large-scale collaborative research efforts are presented. It is our hope that mycorrhizal symbioses can be effectively integrated into global change models and eventually their ecology will be understood well enough so that they can be managed to help offset some of the detrimental effects of anthropogenic environmental change.

Hard-wired heterogeneity in blood stem cells revealed using a dynamic regulatory network model.

MOTIVATION: Combinatorial interactions of transcription factors with cis-regulatory elements control the dynamic progression through successive cellular states and thus underpin all metazoan development. The construction of network models of cis-regulatory elements, therefore, has the potential to generate fundamental insights into cellular fate and differentiation. Haematopoiesis has long served as a model system to study mammalian differentiation, yet modelling based on experimentally informed cis-regulatory interactions has so far been restricted to pairs of interacting factors. Here, we have generated a Boolean network model based on detailed cis-regulatory functional data connecting 11 haematopoietic stem/progenitor cell (HSPC) regulator genes. RESULTS: Despite its apparent simplicity, the model exhibits surprisingly complex behaviour that we charted using strongly connected components and shortest-path analysis in its Boolean state space. This analysis of our model predicts that HSPCs display heterogeneous expression patterns and possess many intermediate states that can act as 'stepping stones' for the HSPC to achieve a final differentiated state. Importantly, an external perturbation or 'trigger' is required to exit the stem cell state, with distinct triggers characterizing maturation into the various different lineages. By focusing on intermediate states occurring during erythrocyte differentiation, from our model we predicted a novel negative regulation of Fli1 by Gata1, which we confirmed experimentally thus validating our model. In conclusion, we demonstrate that an advanced mammalian regulatory network model based on experimentally validated cis-regulatory interactions has allowed us to make novel, experimentally testable hypotheses about transcriptional mechanisms that control differentiation of mammalian stem cells. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

Creació i transmissió de coneixement als clústers empresarials: un model de simulació

Projecte de recerca elaborat a partir d’una estada a l’Snider Entrepreneurial Research Center de la Wharton School de la University of Pennsilvanya y, EUA entre juliol i desembre del 2007. L’objectiu d’aquest projecte és estudiar la relació entre les estratègies de gestió del coneixement i les tecnologies de la informació i la comunicació (TIC) en l’evolució de les poblacions d’organitzacions i els seus efectes en els patrons industrials d’aglomeració espacial. Per a això s’adopta una aproximació fonamentada en la utilització d'un model basats en agents per a obtenir hipòtesis significatives i provables sobre l’evolució de les poblacions d’organitzacions al si de clústers geogràfics. El model de simulació incorpora les perspectives i supòsits d’un marc conceptual, l’Espai de la Informació o I-Space. Això permet una conceptualització basada en la informació de l’entorn econòmic que té en compte les seves dimensions espacials i temporals. Mitjançant els paràmetres del model es dóna la possibilitat d’assignar estratègies específiques de gestió del coneixement als diversos agents i de localitzar-los en una posició de l’espai físic. La simulació mostra com l'adopció d'estratègies diverses pel que fa a la gestió del coneixement influeix en l'evolució de les organitzacions i de la seva localització espacial, i que aquesta evolució es veu modificada pel desenvolupament de les TIC. A través de la modelització de dos casos ben coneguts de clústers geogràfics d’alta tecnologia, com són Silicon Valley a Califòrnia i la Route 128 als voltants de Boston, s’estudia la interrelació entre les estratègies de gestió del coneixement adoptades per les empreses i la seva tria de localització espacial, i també com això és afectat per l’evolució de les tecnologies de la informació i de la comunicació (TIC). Els resultats obtinguts generen una sèrie d’hipòtesis de rica potencialitat sobre l’impacte del desenvolupament de les TIC en la dinàmica d’aquests clusters geogràfics. Concretament, es troba que la estructuració del coneixement i l’aglomeració espacial co-evolucionen i que aquesta coevolució es veu significativament alterada pel desenvolupament de les TIC.

Predicting root defence against herbivores during succession

P>1. Root herbivores and pathogens interfere with basic below-ground plant function, and can thereby affect plant fitness and spatial and temporal patterns in natural plant communities. However, there has been little development of concepts and theories on below-ground plant defence, a deficit that is in contrast to the abundance of theorizing for above-ground plant parts.2. A review of the past 10 years of research on below-ground plant-herbivore interactions has revealed that, similar to above-ground tissues, root defences can be expressed constitutively or induced upon herbivore attack, and can be classified into direct and indirect traits, tolerance, and escape. Indeed, it has been shown that roots tolerate herbivory by outgrowing or re-growing lost tissues, or resist it by producing secondary metabolites that are toxic to herbivores or attract natural enemies of herbivores.3. We propose that, similar to above-ground plant-herbivore theories, the partition of abiotic and biotic factors over ecological succession can serve as the basis for predicting investment in defence strategies below-ground.4. Investigation of herbivore pressure and root responses along primary and secondary successional gradients suggests that: (i) roots are often fast growing, thinner and softer in early compared to later succession. (ii) Insect and nematode herbivore pressure increases until mid-succession and later decreases. (iii) Mycorrhizal abundance increases with succession, and the composition of fungal species changes through succession, often shifting from arbuscular mycorrhizae to ecto-mycorrhizae.5. Based on these findings, and on classical (above-ground) plant defence theory, we suggest the following set of testable hypotheses for below-ground plant defence: (i) During succession, early plants invest most of their resources in growth and less in defences (associated with a general lack of herbivores and pathogens, and with limited availability of resources in the system), therefore relying more on re-growth (tolerance) strategies. (ii) During mid-succession, a buildup of herbivore pressure facilitates replacement by plant species that exhibit greater direct and indirect defence strategies. (iii) Constitutive and inducible levels of defences may trade-off, and early successional plants should rely more on induction of defences after herbivore attack, whereas late successional plants will increasingly rely on constitutively produced levels of physical and chemical defence. (iv) Successional changes in microbial associations have consequences for root defence by improving plant nutrition and defence expression as well as directly competing for root space; however, toxic or impenetrable root defences may also limit association with root symbionts, and so may constrain the expression of root defence.

Methodological rigour in assessing participatory development

There have been few rigorous assessments of the effectiveness of participatory processes for natural resource management. In Bangladesh an approach known as Participatory Action Plan Development (PAPD) has been developed and applied. By combining problem identification and solution analysis by separate stakeholder groups with plenary sessions it is claimed to result in consensus and more effective community based management. Methodological issues in assessing the effectiveness of such development are discussed and good practice illustrated. Under the same project there were sites where PAPD had been used and others without its use so a comparative assessment could be made. However, for an appropriate assessment it is important to identify clear testable hypotheses regarding the expected benefits, appropriate measures, and other factors which may affect or confound the outcome. The paper illustrates how participatory assessment involving both individual opinions and focus groups can be systematically recorded, quantified and used with other data in statistical analysis. By using statistical modelling methods at an appropriate level of aggregation and controlling for other factors, benefits from PAPD were found to be significant. The systematic approaches and practices recommended from this example can be applied in similar situations to test the effectiveness of participatory processes using participatory assessments.

Evolution in software systems: foundations of the SPE classification scheme

The SPE taxonomy of evolving software systems, first proposed by Lehman in 1980, is re-examined in this work. The primary concepts of software evolution are related to generic theories of evolution, particularly Dawkins' concept of a replicator, to the hermeneutic tradition in philosophy and to Kuhn's concept of paradigm. These concepts provide the foundations that are needed for understanding the phenomenon of software evolution and for refining the definitions of the SPE categories. In particular, this work argues that a software system should be defined as of type P if its controlling stakeholders have made a strategic decision that the system must comply with a single paradigm in its representation of domain knowledge. The proposed refinement of SPE is expected to provide a more productive basis for developing testable hypotheses and models about possible differences in the evolution of E- and P-type systems than is provided by the original scheme. Copyright (C) 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Combined neurostimulation and neuroimaging in cognitive neuroscience: past, present, and future

Modern neurostimulation approaches in humans provide controlled inputs into the operations of cortical regions, with highly specific behavioral consequences. This enables causal structure–function inferences, and in combination with neuroimaging, has provided novel insights into the basic mechanisms of action of neurostimulation on dis- tributed networks. For example,more recent work has established the capacity of transcranialmagnetic stimulation (TMS) to probe causal interregional influences, and their interaction with cognitive state changes. Combinations of neurostimulation and neuroimaging now face the challenge of integrating the known physiological effects of neu- rostimulationwith theoretical and biologicalmodels of cognition, for example,when theoretical stalemates between opposing cognitive theories need to be resolved. This will be driven by novel developments, including biologically informedcomputational network analyses for predicting the impactofneurostimulationonbrainnetworks, as well as novel neuroimaging and neurostimulation techniques. Such future developments may offer an expanded set of tools withwhich to investigate structure–function relationships, and to formulate and reconceptualize testable hypotheses about complex neural network interactions and their causal roles in cognition

Fundamental insights into ontogenetic growth from theory and fish

The fundamental features of growth may be universal, because growth trajectories of most animals are very similar, but a unified mechanistic theory of growth remains elusive. Still needed is a synthetic explanation for how and why growth rates vary as body size changes, both within individuals over their ontogeny and between populations and species over their evolution. Here we use Bertalanffy growth equations to characterize growth of ray-finned fishes in terms of two parameters, the growth rate coefficient, K, and final body mass, m∞. We derive two alternative empirically testable hypotheses and test them by analyzing data from FishBase. Across 576 species, which vary in size at maturity by almost nine orders of magnitude, K scaled as m_∞^(-0.23). This supports our first hypothesis that growth rate scales as m_∞^(-0.25) as predicted by metabolic scaling theory; it implies that species which grow to larger mature sizes grow faster as juveniles. Within fish species, however, K scaled as m_∞^(-0.35). This supports our second hypothesis which predicts that growth rate scales as m_∞^(-0.33) when all juveniles grow at the same rate. The unexpected disparity between across- and within-species scaling challenges existing theoretical interpretations. We suggest that the similar ontogenetic programs of closely related populations constrain growth to m_∞^(-0.33) scaling, but as species diverge over evolutionary time they evolve the near-optimal m_∞^(-0.25) scaling predicted by metabolic scaling theory. Our findings have important practical implications because fish supply essential protein in human diets, and sustainable yields from wild harvests and aquaculture depend on growth rates.

Socioeconomic correlates of global mammalian conservation status

The main causes of biodiversity decline are related to human use of resources, which is ultimately triggered by the socioeconomic decisions made by individuals and nations. Characterizing the socioeconomic attributes of areas in which biodiversity is most threatened can help us identify decisions and conditions that promote the presence or absence of threats and potentially suggest more sustainable strategies. In this study we explored how diverse indicators of social and economic development correlate with the conservation status of terrestrial mammals within countries explicitly exploring hypothesized linear and quadratic relationships. First, comparing countries with and without threatened mammals we found that those without threatened species are a disparate group formed by European countries and Small Island Developing States (SIDS) with little in common besides their slow population growth and a past of human impacts. Second, focusing on countries with threatened mammals we found that those with a more threatened mammalian biota have mainly rural populations, are predominantly exporters of goods and services, receive low to intermediate economic benefits from international tourism, and have medium to high human life expectancy. Overall, these results provide a comprehensive characterization of the socioeconomic profiles linked to mammalian conservation status of the world's nations, highlighting the importance of transborder impacts reflected by the international flux of goods, services and people. Further studies would be necessary to unravel the actual mechanisms and threats that link these socioeconomic profiles and indicators with mammalian conservation. Nevertheless, this study presents a broad and complete characterization that offers testable hypotheses regarding how socioeconomic development associates with biodiversity.

Mortality Risk in Insects

Understanding how and why insect numbers fluctuate through time and space has been a central theme in ecological research for more than a century. Life tables have been used to understand temporal and spatial patterns in insect numbers. In this study, we estimated cause-of-death probabilities for phytophagous insects using multiple decrement life tables and the irreplaceable mortality analytic technique. Multiple decrement life tables were created from 73 insect life tables published from 1954 to 2004. Irreplaceable mortality (the portion of mortality that cannot be replaced by another cause) from pathogens, predators, and parasitoids was 8.6 +/- 7.2, 7.8 +/- 4.9, and 6.2 +/- 1.6%, respectively. In contrast, the mean irreplaceable mortality from all non-natural enemy mortality factors (mortality from factors other than natural enemies) was 35.1 +/- 4.4%. Irreplaceable mortality from natural enemies was significantly lower compared with non-natural enemy factors. Our results may partially explain cases of unsuccessful efficacy in classical biological control, after successful establishment, by showing low irreplaceable mortality for natural enemies, including 5.2 +/- 1.6% for introduced natural enemies. We suggest that the environment (i.e., the degree of environmental stability) influences the magnitude of the irreplaceable mortality from natural enemies. Our results lead to several testable hypotheses and emphasize that it is not possible to estimate the effect of any mortality factor without considering its interaction with competing mortality factors, which has far-reaching consequences for population biology and applied ecology.

Hipóteses estatísticas com dados desbalanceados nos modelos com três fatores de efeitos fixos hierarquizados

Este trabalho tem por objetivo formalizar os termos das respectivas somas de quadrados e hipóteses mais usuais, que são testadas nos modelos com três fatores de efeitos fixos hierarquizados para dados desbalanceados. Discute-se, também, o problema da interpretação de hipóteses associadas às somas de quadrados, bem como comparam-se os resultados fornecidos por alguns softwares estatísticos.

Predação e defesa de anuros: revisão, descrição e evolução

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Entrepreneurial opportunities, capability development and the performance of new firms

This study aims at providing a theoretical framework encompassing the two approaches towards entrepreneurial opportunity (opportunity discovery and opportunity creation) by outlining a trajectory from firm creation to capability development, to firm performance in the short term (firm survival) and the medium/long term (growth rate). A set of empirically testable hypotheses is proposed and tested by performing qualitative analyses on interviews on a small sample of entrepreneurs and event history analysis on a large sample of firms founded in the United States in 2004.