Temporal trends and bioavailability assessment of heavy metals in the sediments of Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia

Thirteen sites in Deception Bay, Queensland, Australia were sampled three times over a period of 7 months and assessed for contamination by a range of heavy metals, primarily As, Cd, Cr, Cu, Pb and Hg. Fraction analysis, enrichment factors and Principal Components Analysis-Absolute Principal Component Scores (PCA-APCS) analysis were conducted in order to identify the potential bioavailability of these elements of concern and their sources. Hg and Te were identified as the elements of highest enrichment in Deception Bay while marine sediments, shipping and antifouling agents were identified as the sources of the Weak acid Extractable Metals (WE-M), with antifouling agents showing long residence time for mercury contamination. This has significant implications for the future of monitoring and regulation of heavy metal contamination within Deception Bay.

Large-scale characterization of drought pattern: a continent-wide modelling approach applied to the Australian wheatbelt – spatial and temporal trends

* Plant response to drought is complex, so that traits adapted to a specific drought type can confer disadvantage in another drought type. Understanding which type(s) of drought to target is of prime importance for crop improvement. * Modelling was used to quantify seasonal drought patterns for a check variety across the Australian wheatbelt, using 123 yr of weather data for representative locations and managements. Two other genotypes were used to simulate the impact of maturity on drought pattern. * Four major environment types summarized the variability in drought pattern over time and space. Severe stress beginning before flowering was common (44% of occurrences), with (24%) or without (20%) relief during grain filling. High variability occurred from year to year, differing with geographical region. With few exceptions, all four environment types occurred in most seasons, for each location, management system and genotype. * Applications of such environment characterization are proposed to assist breeding and research to focus on germplasm, traits and genes of interest for target environments. The method was applied at a continental scale to highly variable environments and could be extended to other crops, to other drought-prone regions around the world, and to quantify potential changes in drought patterns under future climates.

Temporal trends (2000–2011) and influences on fishery-independent catch rates for loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) at an important coastal foraging region in the southeastern United States

Seasonal trawling was conducted randomly in coastal (depths of 4.6–17 m) waters from St. Augustine, Florida, (29.9°N) to Winyah Bay, South Carolina (33.1°N), during 2000–03, 2008–09, and 2011 to assess annual trends in the relative abundance of sea turtles. A total of 1262 loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) were captured in 23% (951) of 4207 sampling events. Capture rates (overall and among prevalent 5-cm size classes) were analyzed through the use of a generalized linear model with log link function for the 4097 events that had complete observations for all 25 model parameters. Final models explained 6.6% (70.1–75.0 cm minimum straight-line carapace length [SCLmin]) to 14.9% (75.1–80.0 cm SCLmin) of deviance in the data set. Sampling year, geographic subregion, and distance from shore were retained as significant terms in all final models, and these terms collectively accounted for 6.2% of overall model deviance (range: 4.5–11.7% of variance among 5-cm size classes). We retained 18 parameters only in a subset of final models: 4 as exclusively significant terms, 5 as a mixture of significant or nonsignificant terms, and 9 as exclusively nonsignificant terms. Four parameters also were dropped completely from all final models. The generalized linear model proved appropriate for monitoring trends for this data set that was laden with zero values for catches and was compiled for a globally protected species. Because we could not account for much model deviance, metrics other than those examined in our study may better explain catch variability and, once elucidated, their inclusion in the generalized linear model should improve model fits.

Monitoring Hawaii’s marine protected areas: examining spatial and temporal trends using a seascape approach

Hawaii’s coastal marine resources have declined dramatically over the past 100 years due to multiple anthropogenic stressors including overfishing, coastal development, pollution, overuse, invasive species and climate change. It is now becoming evident that ecosystem-based management, in the form of marine protected areas (MPAs), is necessary to conserve biodiversity, maintain viable fisheries, and deliver a broad suite of ecosystem services. Over the past four decades, Hawaii has developed a system of MPAs to conserve and replenish marine resources around the state. These Marine Life Conservation Districts (MLCDs) vary in size, habitat quality, and management regimes, providing an excellent opportunity to test hypotheses concerning MPA design and function using multiple discreet sampling units. NOAA/NOS/NCCOS/Center for Coastal Monitoring and Assessment’s Biogeography Branch used digital benthic habitat maps coupled with comprehensive ecological studies between 2002 and 2004 to evaluate the efficacy of all existing MLCDs using a spatially-explicit stratified random sampling design. The results from this work have shown that areas fully protected from fishing had higher fish biomass, larger overall fish size, and higher biodiversity than adjacent areas of similar habitat quality. Other key findings demonstrated that top predators and other important fisheries species were more abundant and larger in the MPAs, illustrating the effectiveness of these closures in conserving these populations. Habitat complexity, protected area size and habitat diversity were the major factors in determining effectiveness among MPAs.

Temporal trends in reef fish assemblages inside Virgin Islands National Park and around St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands, 1988-2006

This report is a result of long-term fish monitoring studies supported by the National Park Service (NPS) at the Virgin Islands National Park since 1988 and is now a joint NPS and NOAA collaboration. Reef fish monitoring data collected from 1988 to 2006 within Virgin Islands National Park (VINP) and adjacent reefs around St. John, U.S. Virgin Islands (USVI) were analyzed to provide information on the status of reef fishes during the monitoring period. Monitoring projects were initiated by the National Park Service (NPS) in the 1980s to provide useful data for evaluation of resources and for development of a long-term monitoring program. Monthly monitoring was conducted at two reef sites (Yawzi Point and Cocoloba Cay) starting in November 1988 for 2.5 years to document the monthly/seasonal variability in reef fish assemblages. Hurricane Hugo (a powerful Category 4 storm) struck the USVI in September 1989 resulting in considerable damage to the reefs around St. John. Abundance of fishes was lower at both sites following the storm, however, a greater effect was observed at Yawzi Point, which experienced a more direct impact from the hurricane. The storm affected species differently, with some showing only small, short-term declines in abundance, and others, such as the numerically abundant blue chromis (Chromis cyanea), a planktivorous damselfish, exhibiting a larger and longer recovery period. This report provides: 1) an evaluation of sampling methods, sample size, and methods used during the sampling period, 2) an evaluation of the spatial and temporal variability in reef fish assemblages at selected reef sites inside and outside of VINP, and 3) an evaluation of trends over 17 years of monitoring at the four reference sites. Comparisons of methods were conducted to standardize assessments among years. Several methods were used to evaluate sample size requirements for reef fish monitoring and the results provided a statistically robust justification for sample allocation.

Demographic and temporal trends in out of hospital sudden cardiac death in belfast

Objective: To determine the epidemiology of out of hospital sudden cardiac death (OHSCD) in Belfast from 1 August 2003 to 31 July 2004.

Design: Prospective examination of out of hospital cardiac arrests by using the Utstein style and necropsy reports. World Health Organization criteria were applied to determine the number of sudden cardiac deaths.

Results: Of 300 OHSCDs, 197 (66%) in men, mean age (SD) 68 (14) years, 234 (78%) occurred at home. The emergency medical services (EMS) attended 279 (93%). Rhythm on EMS arrival was ventricular fibrillation (VF) in 75 (27%). The call to response interval (CRI) was mean (SD) 8 (3) minutes. Among patients attended by the EMS, 9.7% were resuscitated and 7.2% survived to leave hospital alive. The CRI for survivors was mean (SD) 5 (2) minutes and for non-survivors, 8 (3) minutes (p < 0.001). Ninety one (30%) OHSCDs were witnessed; of these 91 patients 48 (53%) had VF on EMS arrival. The survival rate for witnessed VF arrests was 20 of 48 (41.7%): all 20 survivors had VF as the presenting rhythm and CRI ? 7 minutes. The European age standardised incidence for OHSCD was 122/100 000 (95% confidence interval 111 to 133) for men and 41/100 000 (95% confidence interval 36 to 46) for women.

Conclusion: Despite a 37% reduction in heart attack mortality in Ireland over the past 20 years, the incidence of OHSCD in Belfast has not fallen. In this study, 78% of OHSCDs occurred at home.

Bird depredation of grapes in Niagara vineyards : a novel approach to identifying spatial and temporal trends /

Although local grape growers view bird depredation as a significant economic issue, the most recent research on the problem in the Niagara Peninsula is three decades old. Peer-reviewed publications on the subject are rare, and researchers have struggled to develop bird-damage assessment techniques useful for facilitating management programmes. I used a variation of Stevenson and Virgo's (1971) visual estimation procedure to quantify spatial and temporal trends in bird damage to grapes within single vineyard plots at two locations near St. Catharines, Ontario. I present a novel approach to managing the rank-data from visual estimates, which is unprecedented in its sensitivity to spatial trends in bird damage. I also review its valid use in comparative statistical analysis. Spatial trends in 3 out of 4 study plots confirmed a priori predictions about localisation in bird damage based on optimal foraging from a central location (staging area). Damage to grape clusters was: (1) greater near the edges of vineyard plots and decreased with distance towards the center, (2) greater in areas adjacent to staging areas for birds, and (3) vertically stratified, with upper-tier clusters sustaining more damage than lower-tier clusters. From a management perspective, this predictive approach provides vineyard owners with the ability to identify the portions of plots likely to be most susceptible to bird damage, and thus the opportunity to focus deterrent measures in these areas. Other management considerations at Henry of Pelham were: (1) wind damage to ice-wine Riesling and Vidal was much higher than bird damage, (2) plastic netting with narrow mesh provided more effective protection agsiinst birds than nylon netting with wider mesh, and (3) no trends in relative susceptibility of varietals by colour (red vs green) were evident.

Temporal trends in incidence of Type 1 diabetes between 1986 and 2006 in Brazil

Background: Scarce information is available about the variation in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes in the Brazilian population in the last decades. Aim: The objective of this study was to assess the long-term trends (1986-2006) in the incidence of Type 1 diabetes in Bauru, São Paulo State, Brazil. Subjects and methods: The annual incidence of Type 1 diabetes (per 100,000 per yr) from 1986 to 2006 was determined in children yr of age, using the capture and recapture method. Results: A total of 176 cases were diagnosed in the study population. The overall incidence was 10.4/100,000 with a range of 2.82/100,000 in 1987 to 18.49/100,000 in 2002 representing a 6.56-fold increase within the same population. The estimated incidence, using the capture and recapture method varied from 2.82/100,000 per yr in 1987 to 27.20/100,000 per yr in 2002, representing a 9.6-fold variation. The global pattern of incidence variation was categorized as high (10-19.99/100,000 per yr), and very high (20/100,000 per yr) in 71.43% of the study-years. Incidence was slightly higher among females, Caucasians, children in the 5-9 yr of age range and belonging to lower socio-economic classes. Most diagnoses were established during the colder months and/or with higher pluviometric indexes. Conclusions: The incidence of Type 1 diabetes in children is increasing in Bauru, São Paulo State, Brazil, and the global pattern of incidence was classified as high or very high, mainly in the last 10 yr. All Brazilian regions should be involved in the study. (J. Endocrinol. Invest. 33: 373-377, 2010) (C)2010, Editrice Kurtis

Temporal Trends of Asthma Mortality Rates in Brazil from 1980 to 2010

Objective. Mortality from asthma has varied among countries during the last several decades. This study aimed to identify temporal trends of asthma mortality in Brazil from 1980 to 2010. Method. We analyzed 6840 deaths of patients aged 5-34 years that occurred in Brazil with the underlying cause of asthma. We applied a log-linear model using Poisson regression to verify peaks and trends. We also calculated the point estimation and 95% confidence interval (CI 95%) of the annual percent change (APC) of the mortality rates, and the average annual percent change (AAPC) for 2001-2010. Results. A decline was observed from 1980 to 1992 [APC = -3.4 (-5.0 to -1.8)], followed by a nonsignificant rise until 1996 [APC = 6.8 (-1.4 to 15.6)], and a new downward trend from 1997 to 2010 [APC = -2.7 (-3.9 to -1.6)]. The APCs varied according to age strata: 5-14 years from 1980 to 2010 [-0.3 (-1.1 to 0.5)]; 15-24 years from 1980 to 1991 [-2.1 (-5.0 to 0.9)], from 1992 to 1996 [6.8 (-6.7 to 22.2)], and from 1997 to 2010 [-3.9 (-5.7 to -2.0)]; 24-25 years from 1980 to 1992 [-2.5 (-4.6 to -0.3)], from 1993 to 1995 [12.0 (-21.1 to 59.1)], and from 1996-2010 [-1.7 (-3.0 to -0.4)]. AAPC from 2001 to 2010 was -1.7 (-3.0 to -0.4); the decline for this period was significant for patients over 15 years old, women, and those living in the Southeast region. Conclusion. Asthma mortality rates in Brazil have been declining since the late 1990s.