Addressing issues in sparseness, ecological bias and formulation of the adjacency matrix in Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis of disease counts

The main objective of this PhD was to further develop Bayesian spatio-temporal models (specifically the Conditional Autoregressive (CAR) class of models), for the analysis of sparse disease outcomes such as birth defects. The motivation for the thesis arose from problems encountered when analyzing a large birth defect registry in New South Wales. The specific components and related research objectives of the thesis were developed from gaps in the literature on current formulations of the CAR model, and health service planning requirements. Data from a large probabilistically-linked database from 1990 to 2004, consisting of fields from two separate registries: the Birth Defect Registry (BDR) and Midwives Data Collection (MDC) were used in the analyses in this thesis. The main objective was split into smaller goals. The first goal was to determine how the specification of the neighbourhood weight matrix will affect the smoothing properties of the CAR model, and this is the focus of chapter 6. Secondly, I hoped to evaluate the usefulness of incorporating a zero-inflated Poisson (ZIP) component as well as a shared-component model in terms of modeling a sparse outcome, and this is carried out in chapter 7. The third goal was to identify optimal sampling and sample size schemes designed to select individual level data for a hybrid ecological spatial model, and this is done in chapter 8. Finally, I wanted to put together the earlier improvements to the CAR model, and along with demographic projections, provide forecasts for birth defects at the SLA level. Chapter 9 describes how this is done. For the first objective, I examined a series of neighbourhood weight matrices, and showed how smoothing the relative risk estimates according to similarity by an important covariate (i.e. maternal age) helped improve the model’s ability to recover the underlying risk, as compared to the traditional adjacency (specifically the Queen) method of applying weights. Next, to address the sparseness and excess zeros commonly encountered in the analysis of rare outcomes such as birth defects, I compared a few models, including an extension of the usual Poisson model to encompass excess zeros in the data. This was achieved via a mixture model, which also encompassed the shared component model to improve on the estimation of sparse counts through borrowing strength across a shared component (e.g. latent risk factor/s) with the referent outcome (caesarean section was used in this example). Using the Deviance Information Criteria (DIC), I showed how the proposed model performed better than the usual models, but only when both outcomes shared a strong spatial correlation. The next objective involved identifying the optimal sampling and sample size strategy for incorporating individual-level data with areal covariates in a hybrid study design. I performed extensive simulation studies, evaluating thirteen different sampling schemes along with variations in sample size. This was done in the context of an ecological regression model that incorporated spatial correlation in the outcomes, as well as accommodating both individual and areal measures of covariates. Using the Average Mean Squared Error (AMSE), I showed how a simple random sample of 20% of the SLAs, followed by selecting all cases in the SLAs chosen, along with an equal number of controls, provided the lowest AMSE. The final objective involved combining the improved spatio-temporal CAR model with population (i.e. women) forecasts, to provide 30-year annual estimates of birth defects at the Statistical Local Area (SLA) level in New South Wales, Australia. The projections were illustrated using sixteen different SLAs, representing the various areal measures of socio-economic status and remoteness. A sensitivity analysis of the assumptions used in the projection was also undertaken. By the end of the thesis, I will show how challenges in the spatial analysis of rare diseases such as birth defects can be addressed, by specifically formulating the neighbourhood weight matrix to smooth according to a key covariate (i.e. maternal age), incorporating a ZIP component to model excess zeros in outcomes and borrowing strength from a referent outcome (i.e. caesarean counts). An efficient strategy to sample individual-level data and sample size considerations for rare disease will also be presented. Finally, projections in birth defect categories at the SLA level will be made.

Environmental and economic evaluation of N fertilizer rates in a maize crop in Italy : a spatial and temporal analysis using crop models

Crop simulation models have the potential to assess the risk associated with the selection of a specific N fertilizer rate, by integrating the effects of soil-crop interactions on crop growth under different pedo-climatic and management conditions. The objective of this study was to simulate the environmental and economic impact (nitrate leaching and N2O emissions) of a spatially variable N fertilizer application in an irrigated maize field in Italy. The validated SALUS model was run with 5 nitrogen rates scenarios, 50, 100, 150, 200, and 250 kg N ha−1, with the latter being the N fertilization adopted by the farmer. The long-term (25 years) simulations were performed on two previously identified spatially and temporally stable zones, a high yielding and low yielding zone. The simulation results showed that N fertilizer rate can be reduced without affecting yield and net return. The marginal net return was on average higher for the high yield zone, with values ranging from 1550 to 2650 € ha−1 for the 200 N and 1485 to 2875 € ha−1 for the 250 N. N leaching varied between 16.4 and 19.3 kg N ha−1 for the 200 N and the 250 N in the high yield zone. In the low yield zone, the 250 N had a significantly higher N leaching. N2O emissions varied between 0.28 kg N2O ha−1 for the 50 kg N ha−1 rate to a maximum of 1.41 kg N2O ha−1 for the 250 kg N ha−1 rate.

Spatial and temporal analysis of Barmah Forest virus disease in Queensland, Australia

Barmah Forest virus (BFV) disease is one of the most widespread mosquito-borne diseases in Australia. The number of outbreaks and the incidence rate of BFV in Australia have attracted growing concerns about the spatio-temporal complexity and underlying risk factors of BFV disease. A large number of notifications has been recorded continuously in Queensland since 1992. Yet, little is known about the spatial and temporal characteristics of the disease. I aim to use notification data to better understand the effects of climatic, demographic, socio-economic and ecological risk factors on the spatial epidemiology of BFV disease transmission, develop predictive risk models and forecast future disease risks under climate change scenarios. Computerised data files of daily notifications of BFV disease and climatic variables in Queensland during 1992-2008 were obtained from Queensland Health and Australian Bureau of Meteorology, respectively. Projections on climate data for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 were obtained from Council of Scientific Industrial Research Organisation. Data on socio-economic, demographic and ecological factors were also obtained from relevant government departments as follows: 1) socio-economic and demographic data from Australian Bureau of Statistics; 2) wetlands data from Department of Environment and Resource Management and 3) tidal readings from Queensland Department of Transport and Main roads. Disease notifications were geocoded and spatial and temporal patterns of disease were investigated using geostatistics. Visualisation of BFV disease incidence rates through mapping reveals the presence of substantial spatio-temporal variation at statistical local areas (SLA) over time. Results reveal high incidence rates of BFV disease along coastal areas compared to the whole area of Queensland. A Mantel-Haenszel Chi-square analysis for trend reveals a statistically significant relationship between BFV disease incidence rates and age groups (ƒÓ2 = 7587, p<0.01). Semi-variogram analysis and smoothed maps created from interpolation techniques indicate that the pattern of spatial autocorrelation was not homogeneous across the state. A cluster analysis was used to detect the hot spots/clusters of BFV disease at a SLA level. Most likely spatial and space-time clusters are detected at the same locations across coastal Queensland (p<0.05). The study demonstrates heterogeneity of disease risk at a SLA level and reveals the spatial and temporal clustering of BFV disease in Queensland. Discriminant analysis was employed to establish a link between wetland classes, climate zones and BFV disease. This is because the importance of wetlands in the transmission of BFV disease remains unclear. The multivariable discriminant modelling analyses demonstrate that wetland types of saline 1, riverine and saline tidal influence were the most significant risk factors for BFV disease in all climate and buffer zones, while lacustrine, palustrine, estuarine and saline 2 and saline 3 wetlands were less important. The model accuracies were 76%, 98% and 100% for BFV risk in subtropical, tropical and temperate climate zones, respectively. This study demonstrates that BFV disease risk varied with wetland class and climate zone. The study suggests that wetlands may act as potential breeding habitats for BFV vectors. Multivariable spatial regression models were applied to assess the impact of spatial climatic, socio-economic and tidal factors on the BFV disease in Queensland. Spatial regression models were developed to account for spatial effects. Spatial regression models generated superior estimates over a traditional regression model. In the spatial regression models, BFV disease incidence shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature, low tide and distance to coast, and positive relationship with rainfall in coastal areas whereas in whole Queensland the disease shows an inverse relationship with minimum temperature and high tide and positive relationship with rainfall. This study determines the most significant spatial risk factors for BFV disease across Queensland. Empirical models were developed to forecast the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks in coastal Queensland using existing climatic, socio-economic and tidal conditions under climate change scenarios. Logistic regression models were developed using BFV disease outbreak data for the existing period (2000-2008). The most parsimonious model had high sensitivity, specificity and accuracy and this model was used to estimate and forecast BFV disease outbreaks for years 2025, 2050 and 2100 under climate change scenarios for Australia. Important contributions arising from this research are that: (i) it is innovative to identify high-risk coastal areas by creating buffers based on grid-centroid and the use of fine-grained spatial units, i.e., mesh blocks; (ii) a spatial regression method was used to account for spatial dependence and heterogeneity of data in the study area; (iii) it determined a range of potential spatial risk factors for BFV disease; and (iv) it predicted the future risk of BFV disease outbreaks under climate change scenarios in Queensland, Australia. In conclusion, the thesis demonstrates that the distribution of BFV disease exhibits a distinct spatial and temporal variation. Such variation is influenced by a range of spatial risk factors including climatic, demographic, socio-economic, ecological and tidal variables. The thesis demonstrates that spatial regression method can be applied to better understand the transmission dynamics of BFV disease and its risk factors. The research findings show that disease notification data can be integrated with multi-factorial risk factor data to develop build-up models and forecast future potential disease risks under climate change scenarios. This thesis may have implications in BFV disease control and prevention programs in Queensland.

Inferring lung cancer risk factor patterns through joint Bayesian spatio-temporal analysis

Background: Preventing risk factor exposure is vital to reduce the high burden from lung cancer. The leading risk factor for developing lung cancer is tobacco smoking. In Australia, despite apparent success in reducing smoking prevalence, there is limited information on small area patterns and small area temporal trends. We sought to estimate spatio-temporal patterns for lung cancer risk factors using routinely collected population-based cancer data. Methods: The analysis used a Bayesian shared component spatio-temporal model, with male and female lung cancer included separately. The shared component reflected exposure to lung cancer risk factors, and was modelled over 477 statistical local areas (SLAs) and 15 years in Queensland, Australia. Analyses were also run adjusting for area-level socioeconomic disadvantage, Indigenous population composition, or remoteness. Results: Strong spatial patterns were observed in the underlying risk factor exposure for both males (median Relative Risk (RR) across SLAs compared to the Queensland average ranged from 0.48-2.00) and females (median RR range across SLAs 0.53-1.80), with high exposure observed in many remote areas. Strong temporal trends were also observed. Males showed a decrease in the underlying risk across time, while females showed an increase followed by a decrease in the final two years. These patterns were largely consistent across each SLA. The high underlying risk estimates observed among disadvantaged, remote and indigenous areas decreased after adjustment, particularly among females. Conclusion: The modelled underlying exposure appeared to reflect previous smoking prevalence, with a lag period of around 30 years, consistent with the time taken to develop lung cancer. The consistent temporal trends in lung cancer risk factors across small areas support the hypothesis that past interventions have been equally effective across the state. However, this also means that spatial inequalities have remained unaddressed, highlighting the potential for future interventions, particularly among remote areas.

Spatial and temporal analysis of bottlenose dolphin strandings in South Carolina, 1992-2005

This CD contains summary data of bottlenose dolphins stranded in South Carolina using a Geographical Information System (GIS) and contains two published manuscripts in .pdf files. The intent of this CD is to provide data on bottlenose dolphin strandings in South Carolina to marine mammal researchers and managers. This CD is an accumulation of 14 years of stranding data collected through the collaborations of the National Ocean Service, Center for Coastal Environmental Health and Biomolecular Research (CCEHBR), the South Carolina Department of Natural Resources, and numerous volunteers and veterinarians that comprised the South Carolina Marine Mammal Stranding Network. Spatial and temporal information can be visually represented on maps using GIS. For this CD, maps were created to show relationships of stranding densities with land use, human population density, human interaction with dolphins, high geographical regions of live strandings, and seasonal changes. Point maps were also created to show individual strandings within South Carolina. In summary, spatial analysis revealed higher densities of bottlenose dolphin strandings in Charleston and Beaufort Counties, which consist of urban land with agricultural input. This trend was positively correlated with higher human population levels in these coastal counties as compared with other coastal counties. However, spatial analysis revealed that certain areas within a county may have low human population levels but high stranding density, suggesting that the level of effort to respond to strandings is not necessarily positively correlated with the density of strandings in South Carolina. Temporal analysis revealed a significantly higher density of bottlenose dolphin strandings in the northern portion of the State in the fall, mostly due to an increase of neonate strandings. On a finer geographic scale, seasonal stranding densities may fluctuate depending on the region of interest. Charleston Harbor had the highest density of live bottlenose dolphin strandings compared to the rest of the State. This was due in large part to the number of live dolphin entanglements in the crab pot fishery, the largest source of fishery-related mortality for bottlenose dolphins in South Carolina (Burdett and McFee 2004). Spatial density calculations also revealed that Charleston and Beaufort accounted for the majority of dolphins that were involved with human activities. 1

Time of flight mass spectrometry for quantitative data analysis in fast transient studies using a Temporal Analysis of Products (TAP) reactor

A Time of flight (ToF) mass spectrometer suitable in terms of sensitivity, detector response and time resolution, for application in fast transient Temporal Analysis of Products (TAP) kinetic catalyst characterization is reported. Technical difficulties associated with such application as well as the solutions implemented in terms of adaptations of the ToF apparatus are discussed. The performance of the ToF was validated and the full linearity of the specific detector over the full dynamic range was explored in order to ensure its applicability for the TAP application. The reported TAP-ToF setup is the first system that achieves the high level of sensitivity allowing monitoring of the full 0-200 AMU range simultaneously with sub-millisecond time resolution. In this new setup, the high sensitivity allows the use of low intensity pulses ensuring that transport through the reactor occurs in the Knudsen diffusion regime and that the data can, therefore, be fully analysed using the reported theoretical TAP models and data processing.

Spatio-temporal analysis of DNA damage repair using the X-ray microbeam

Cellular response to radiation damage is made by a complex network of pathways and feedback loops whose spatiotemporal organization is still unclear despite its decisive role in determining the fate of the damaged cell. The single-cell approach and the high spatial resolution offered by microbeams provide the perfect tool to study and quantify the dynamic processes associated with the induction and repair of DNA damage. The soft X-ray microbeam has been used to follow the development of radiation induced foci in live cells by monitoring their size and intensity as a function of dose and time using yellow fluorescent protein (YFP) tagging techniques. Preliminary data indicate a delayed and linear rising of the intensity signal indicating a slow kinetic for the accumulation of DNA repair protein 53BP1. A slow and limited foci diffusion has also been observed. Further investigations are required to assess whatever such diffusion is consistent with a random walk pattern or if it is the result of a more structured lesion processing phenomenon. In conclusion, our data indicates that the use of microbeams coupled to live cell microscopy represent a sophisticated approach for visualizing and quantifying the dynamics changes of DNA proteins at the damaged sites.

Using temporal analysis of products and flux response technology to determine diffusion coefficients in catalytic monoliths

The importance of accurately measuring gas diffusivity in porous materials has led to a number of methods being developed. In this study the Temporal Analysis of Products (TAP) reactor and Flux Response Technology (FRT) have been used to examine the diffusivity in the washcoat supported on cordierite monoliths. Herein, the molecular diffusion of propane within four monoliths with differently prepared alumina/CeZrOx washcoats was investigated as a function of temperature. Moment-based analysis of the observed TAP responses led to the calculation of the apparent intermediate gas constant, Kp, that characterises adsorption into the mesoporous network and apparent time delay, tapp, that characterises residence time in the mesoporous network. Additionally, FRT has been successfully adapted as an extensive in situ perturbation technique in measuring intraphase diffusion coefficients in the washcoats of the same four monolith samples. The diffusion coefficients obtained by moment-based analysis of TAP responses are larger than the coefficients determined by zero length column (ZLC) analysis of flux response profiles with measured values of the same monolith samples between 20 and 100 °C ranging from 2–5×10^-9 m² s^-1 to 4–8×10^-10 m² s^-1, respectively. The TAP and FRT data, therefore, provide a range of the lower and upper limits of diffusivity, respectively. The reported activation energies and diffusivities clearly correlate with the difference in the washcoat structure of different monolith samples.

Expansion of pulse responses from temporal analysis of products (TAP) pulse responses for more accurate data analysis

TAP pulse responses are normally analysed using moments, which are integrals of the full TAP pulse response. However, in some cases the entire pulse response may not be recorded due to technical reasons, thereby compromising any data analysis due to moments generated from incomplete pulse responses. The current work discloses the development of a function which mathematically expands the tail of a TAP pulse response, so that the TAP data analysis can be accurately conducted. This newly developed analysis method has been applied to the oxidative dehydrogenation of ethane over Co–Cr–Sn–WOx/α-Al2O3 and Co–Cr–Sn–WOx/α-Al2O3 catalysts as a case study.

A Temporal Analysis of Emotions in Girls' Secondary School Physical Education Games and Fitness Classes

Female enthusiasm towards engaging in physical education (PE) significantly decreases with age as it provides females with positive and negative emotional experiences. This study examined emotions within four grade nine female PE soccer and fitness classes (N = 67). Emotional patterns were studied over time and across two units of instruction and in relation to student grades. A mixed-method approach was utilized assessing the state emotions of shame, enjoyment, anxiety, and social physique anxiety (SPA). Results revealed unsatisfactory internal consistency for shame and thus it was removed. Statistical analysis revealed no significant changes in emotions over time, whereas qualitative analysis found that state emotions were inconsistent. Statistical analysis indicated that students in the fitness classes reported significantly higher levels of anxiety and SPA on the final class (p < .01). Qualitative analysis signaled different origins and themes of students‟ emotions. No predictive relationship between emotion and students‟ grade was found.

Spatial and temporal analysis of laser induced plasma from a polymer sample

Spatial and temporal analyses of the spectra of the laser induced plasma from a polytetrafluroethylene (PTFE) target obtained with the 1.06 mu m radiation from a Q-switched Nd:YAG laser have been carried out. The spatially resolved spectra of the plasma emission show that molecular bands of C2 (Swan bands) and CN are very intense in the outer regions of the plasma, whereas higher ionized states of carbon are predominant in the core region of the plasma emission. The vibrational temperature and population distribution in the different vibrational levels have been studied as a function of laser energy. From the time resolved studies, it has been observed that there exist fairly large time delays for the onset of emission from all the species in the outer region of the plasma. The molecular bands in each region exhibit much larger time delays in comparison to the ionic lines in the plasma.

Spatio-temporal analysis of an invasive plant pathogen (Phytophthora ramorum) in England and Wales

Phytophthora ramorum is a damaging invasive plant pathogen and was first discovered in the UK in 2002. Spatial point analyses were applied to the occurrence of this disease in England and Wales during the period of 2003-2006 in order to assess its spatio-temporal spread. Out of the 4301 garden centres and nurseries (GCN) surveyed, there were 164, 105, 123 and 41 sites with P. ramorum in 2003, 2004, 2005 and 2006, respectively. Spatial analysis of the observed point patterns of GCN outbreaks suggested that these sites were significantly clumped within a radius of ca 60 km in 2003, but not in later years. Further analyses were conducted to determine the relationship of GCN outbreak sites over two consecutive years and thus to infer possible disease spread over time. This analysis suggested that disease spread among GCN sites was most likely to have occurred within a distance of 60 km for 2003-2004, but not for the later years. There were 35, 63, 81 and 58 sites with P. ramorum in the semi-natural environment (SNE). Analyses were carried out to assess whether infected GCN sites could act as an inoculum source of infected SNE plants or vice versa. In all years, there was a significant spatial closeness among GCN and SNE outbreak sites within a distance of 1 km. But a significant relationship over a longer distance (within 60 km) was only observed between cases in 2003 and 2004. These analyses suggest that statutory actions taken so far appear to have reduced the extent of long-distance spread of P. ramorum among garden centres and nurseries, but not the disease spread at a shorter distance between GCN and SNE sites.

TRCM: a methodology for temporal analysis of evolving concepts in Twitter

The Twitter network has been labelled the most commonly used microblogging application around today. With about 500 million estimated registered users as of June, 2012, Twitter has become a credible medium of sentiment/opinion expression. It is also a notable medium for information dissemination; including breaking news on diverse issues since it was launched in 2007. Many organisations, individuals and even government bodies follow activities on the network in order to obtain knowledge on how their audience reacts to tweets that affect them. We can use postings on Twitter (known as tweets) to analyse patterns associated with events by detecting the dynamics of the tweets. A common way of labelling a tweet is by including a number of hashtags that describe its contents. Association Rule Mining can find the likelihood of co-occurrence of hashtags. In this paper, we propose the use of temporal Association Rule Mining to detect rule dynamics, and consequently dynamics of tweets. We coined our methodology Transaction-based Rule Change Mining (TRCM). A number of patterns are identifiable in these rule dynamics including, new rules, emerging rules, unexpected rules and ?dead' rules. Also the linkage between the different types of rule dynamics is investigated experimentally in this paper.