Techno-Economic Feasibility of Novel On-Line Condition Monitoring Methods in Low Voltage Distribution Networks

The focus in this thesis is to study both technical and economical possibilities of novel on-line condition monitoring techniques in underground low voltage distribution cable networks. This thesis consists of literature study about fault progression mechanisms in modern low voltage cables, laboratory measurements to determine the base and restrictions of novel on-line condition monitoring methods, and economic evaluation, based on fault statistics and information gathered from Finnish distribution system operators. This thesis is closely related to master’s thesis “Channel Estimation and On-line Diagnosis of LV Distribution Cabling”, which focuses more on the actual condition monitoring methods and signal theory behind them.

Thesis summary: Standardized dried extracts of Brazilian medicinal plants: Assessment of technical and economic feasibility of spouted bed drying

This study is an integral part of a research project which seeks the establishment of protocols for the production of standardized herbal dried extracts emphasizing the spouted bed drying. This thesis was conducted at faculty of Pharmaceutical Science of Ribeiro Preto/University of So Paulo, Brazil, under supervision of Prof. Dr. Wanderley Pereira Oliveira*, defended on September 28, 2007.

Techno-economic assessment and uncertainty analysis of thermochemical processes for second generation biofuels

Biomass-To-Liquid (BTL) is one of the most promising low carbon processes available to support the expanding transportation sector. This multi-step process produces hydrocarbon fuels from biomass, the so-called “second generation biofuels” that, unlike first generation biofuels, have the ability to make use of a wider range of biomass feedstock than just plant oils and sugar/starch components. A BTL process based on gasification has yet to be commercialized. This work focuses on the techno-economic feasibility of nine BTL plants. The scope was limited to hydrocarbon products as these can be readily incorporated and integrated into conventional markets and supply chains. The evaluated BTL systems were based on pressurised oxygen gasification of wood biomass or bio-oil and they were characterised by different fuel synthesis processes including: Fischer-Tropsch synthesis, the Methanol to Gasoline (MTG) process and the Topsoe Integrated Gasoline (TIGAS) synthesis. This was the first time that these three fuel synthesis technologies were compared in a single, consistent evaluation. The selected process concepts were modelled using the process simulation software IPSEpro to determine mass balances, energy balances and product distributions. For each BTL concept, a cost model was developed in MS Excel to estimate capital, operating and production costs. An uncertainty analysis based on the Monte Carlo statistical method, was also carried out to examine how the uncertainty in the input parameters of the cost model could affect the output (i.e. production cost) of the model. This was the first time that an uncertainty analysis was included in a published techno-economic assessment study of BTL systems. It was found that bio-oil gasification cannot currently compete with solid biomass gasification due to the lower efficiencies and higher costs associated with the additional thermal conversion step of fast pyrolysis. Fischer-Tropsch synthesis was the most promising fuel synthesis technology for commercial production of liquid hydrocarbon fuels since it achieved higher efficiencies and lower costs than TIGAS and MTG. None of the BTL systems were competitive with conventional fossil fuel plants. However, if government tax take was reduced by approximately 33% or a subsidy of £55/t dry biomass was available, transport biofuels could be competitive with conventional fuels. Large scale biofuel production may be possible in the long term through subsidies, fuels price rises and legislation.

Assessment of techno-economic use cases for small-scale island grids

The main objective of the study was to define the methodology for assessing the limits for application island grids instead of interconnecting with existing grid infrastructure. The model for simulation of grid extension distance and levelised cost of electricity has been developed and validated by the case study in Finland. Thereafter, sensitivities of the application limits were examined with the respect to operational environment, load conditions, supply security and geographical location. Finally, recommendations for the small-scale rural electrification projects in the market economy environment have been proposed.

Providing 30Mbit/s to Spain’s final third. -A techno-economic assessment.

Since the Digital Agenda for Europe released the Europe2020 flagship, Member States are looking for ways of fulfilling their agreed commitments to fast and ultrafast internet deployment. However, Europe is not a homogenous reality. The economic, geographic, social and demographic features of each country make it a highly diverse region to develop best practices over Next Generation Access Networks (NGAN) deployments. There are special concerns about NGAN deployments for “the final third”, as referred to the last 25% of the country’s population who, usually, live in rural areas. This paper assesses, through a techno-economic analysis, the access cost of providing over 30 Mbps broadband for the final third of Spain`s population in municipalities, which are classified into area types, referred to as geotypes. Fixed and mobile technologies are compared in order to determine which is the most cost-effective technology for each geotype. The demographic limit for fixed networks (cable, fibre and copper) is also discussed. The assessment focuses on the supply side and the results show the access network cost only. The research completes a previous published assessment (Techno-economic analysis of next generation access networks roll-out. The case of platform competition, regulation and public policy in Spain) by including the LTE scenario. The LTE scenario is dimensioned to provide 30 Mbps (best effort) broadband, considering a network take-up of 25%. The Rocket techno-economic model is used to assess a ten-year study period deployment. Nevertheless, the deployment must start in 2014 and be completed by 2020, in order to fulfil the Digital Agenda’s goals. The feasibility of the deployment is defined as the ability to recoup the investment at the end of the study period. This ability is highly related to network take-up and, therefore, to service adoption. Network deployment in each geotype is compared with the cost of the deployment in the Urban geotype and broadband expected penetration rates for clarity and simplicity. Debating the cost-effective deployments for each geotype, while addressing the Digital Agenda’s goals regarding fast and ultrafast internet, is the main purpose of this paper. At the end of the last year, the independent Spanish regulation agency released the Spain broadband coverage report at the first half of 2013. This document claimed that 59% and 52% of Spain’s population was already covered by NGAN capable of providing 30 Mbps and 100 Mbps broadband respectively. HFC, with 47% of population coverage, and FTTH, with 14%, were considered as a 100 Mbps capable NGAN. Meanwhile VDSL, with 12% of the population covered, was the only NGAN network considered for the 30 Mbps segment. Despite not being an NGAN, the 99% population coverage of HSPA networks was also noted in the report. Since mobile operators are also required to provide 30 Mbps broadband to 90% of the population in rural areas by the end of 2020, mobile networks will play a significant role on the achievement of the 30 Mbps goal in Spain’s final third. The assessment indicates the cost of the deployment per cumulative households coverage with 4 different NGANs: FTTH, HFC, VDSL and LTE. Research shows that an investment ranging from €2,700 (VDSL) to €5,400 (HFC) million will be needed to cover the first half of the population with any fixed technology assessed. The results state that at least €3,000 million will be required to cover these areas with the least expensive technology (LTE). However, if we consider the throughput that fixed networks could provide and achievement of the Digital Agenda’s objectives, fixed network deployments are recommended for up to 90% of the population. Fibre and cable deployments could cover up to a maximum of 88% of the Spanish population cost efficiently. As there are some concerns about the service adoption, we recommend VDSL and mobile network deployments for the final third of the population. Despite LTE being able to provide the most economical roll-out, VDSL could also provide 50 Mbps from 75% to 90% of the Spanish population cost efficiently. For this population gap, facility based competition between VDSL providers and LTE providers must be encouraged. Regarding 90% to 98.5% of the Spanish population, LTE deployment is the most appropriate. Since costumers in less populated the municipalities are more sensitive to the cost of the service, we consider that a single network deployment could be most appropriate. Finally, it has become clear that it is not possible to deliver 30Mbps to the final 1.5% of the population cost-efficiently and adoption predictions are not optimistic either. As there are other broadband alternatives able to deliver up to 20 Mbps, in the authors’ opinion, it is not necessary to cover the extreme rural areas, where public financing would be required.

Economic feasibility of cowpea irrigation in Piaui State

The objective of this work was to evaluate the economic feasibility of cowpea irrigation in Piaui State Brazil. Water balances were carried out on a daily basis using the Thornthwaite and Mather (1955) method, for 165 sites, considering twelve sowings dates and available water capacity in the soil of 20, 40 and 60 mm. The net revenues were estimated with a probability of occurrence of 75%, later being spatialized to Piaui State. Cowpea irrigation was shown to economically viable for all sowing dates, irrespective of the available water capacity. Net revenues varied among several regions of the State, in function of the sowing date and available water capacity in the soil. Considering a planning strategy for Piaui State, sowing on February, I was shown to be most favorable, because it enabled higher net revenue values, covering larger areas of the State.

Influence of nitrogen fertilization and green manure on the economic feasibility of no-tilled wheat in the Cerrado

The search for higher profitability in wheat crop with cost reduction technologies that may promote sustainability is an important matter in Brazilian agriculture. This study evaluated the profitability of no-tilled wheat, reducing nitrogen topdressing doses with the cultivation of green manure before the wheat crop. The experiment was carried out in Selvíria (MS), Brazil, in 2009/10. The experiment was arranged in a randomized block design with 36 treatments in splitplots and four replicates. The plots were formed by six types of green manure: Cajanus cajan L. BRS Mandarin, Crotalaria juncea L., Pennisetum americanum L. BRS 1501, fallow area and mixed cropping of Pennisetum americanum L. + Cajanus cajan L. and Pennisetum americanum L. + crotalaria which provided straw for no-tilled wheat in the winter, following the rice crop in the summer. The subplots were formed by six levels of topdressing nitrogen (0, 25, 50, 75, 100 and 125 kg N ha-1) using urea as a nitrogen source. The wheat grown after green manure in the previous winter crop, with no nitrogen topdressing and a rate of 25 kg ha-1 N, had more frequently production costs above the gross income. Wheat production cost after the mixed cropping Pennisetum americanum L. + Cajanus cajan L. and Pennisetum americanum L. + Crotalaria juncea L. from the previous winter crop, combined with nitrogen rates of 50 and 75 kg N ha-1, provided better profitability compared with the other green manures evaluated.

Self-compacting concrete and conventional concrete in the arena Pernambuco: comparative study of durability indicators and economic feasibility

This study addressed the application, strength and durability of self-compacting concrete (SCC) in a large-scale construction site, comparing its performance with vibrated conventional concrete (CC) with similar characteristics, assessing its economic feasibility. The studies were undertaken in the Arena Pernambuco project and involved the concreting during May, June and July 2012, for data collection, accompanying the routine concrete control tests and performing specific strength and durability tests. The SCC compressive strength was on average 4.5% higher than the CC one, and its formwork reinforced to withstand greater lateral pressure of the fresh concrete. The durability indicators results were in favour of SCC, which cost was 13.5% higher than CC.

INCLUDING RISK IN ECONOMIC FEASIBILITY ANALYSIS:A STOCHASTIC SIMULATION MODEL FOR BLUEBERRY INVESTMENT DECISIONS IN CHILE

ABSTRACT The traditional method of net present value (NPV) to analyze the economic profitability of an investment (based on a deterministic approach) does not adequately represent the implicit risk associated with different but correlated input variables. Using a stochastic simulation approach for evaluating the profitability of blueberry (Vaccinium corymbosum L.) production in Chile, the objective of this study is to illustrate the complexity of including risk in economic feasibility analysis when the project is subject to several but correlated risks. The results of the simulation analysis suggest that the non-inclusion of the intratemporal correlation between input variables underestimate the risk associated with investment decisions. The methodological contribution of this study illustrates the complexity of the interrelationships between uncertain variables and their impact on the convenience of carrying out this type of business in Chile. The steps for the analysis of economic viability were: First, adjusted probability distributions for stochastic input variables (SIV) were simulated and validated. Second, the random values of SIV were used to calculate random values of variables such as production, revenues, costs, depreciation, taxes and net cash flows. Third, the complete stochastic model was simulated with 10,000 iterations using random values for SIV. This result gave information to estimate the probability distributions of the stochastic output variables (SOV) such as the net present value, internal rate of return, value at risk, average cost of production, contribution margin and return on capital. Fourth, the complete stochastic model simulation results were used to analyze alternative scenarios and provide the results to decision makers in the form of probabilities, probability distributions, and for the SOV probabilistic forecasts. The main conclusion shown that this project is a profitable alternative investment in fruit trees in Chile.

Effect of Material Recycling on the Feasibility of Solid Recovered Fuel Fired Power Plant

This master’s thesis examines the effects of increased material recycling on different waste-to-energy concepts. With background study and a developed techno-economic computational method the feasibility of chosen scenarios with different combinations of mechanical treatment and waste firing technologies can be evaluated. The background study covers the waste scene of Finland, and potential market areas Poland and France. Calculated cases concentrate on municipal solid waste treatment in the Finnish operational environment. The chosen methodology to approach the objectives is techno-economic feasibility assessment. It combines calculation methods of literature and practical engineering to define the material and energy balances in chosen scenarios. The calculation results together with other operational and financial data can be concluded to net present values compared between the scenarios. For the comparison, four scenarios, most vital and alternative between each other, are established. The baseline scenario is grate firing of source separated mixed municipal solid waste. Second scenario is fluidized bed combustion of solid recovered fuel produced in mechanical treatment process with metal separation. Third scenario combines a biomaterial separation process to the solid recovered fuels preparation and in the last scenario plastics are separated in addition to the previous operations. The results indicated that the mechanical treatment scenarios still need to overcome some problems to become feasible. Problems are related to profitability, residue disposal and technical reliability. Many uncertainties are also related to the data gathered over waste characteristics, technical performance and markets. With legislative support and development of further processing technologies and markets of the recycled materials the scenarios with biomaterial and plastic separation may operate feasibly in the future.

Performance Degradation Modelling and Techno-Economic Analysis of Lithium-Ion Battery Energy Storage Systems

Transmission system operators and distribution system operators are experiencing new challenges in terms of reliability, power quality, and cost efficiency. Although the potential of energy storages to face those challenges is recognized, the economic implications are still obscure, which introduce the risk into the business models. This thesis aims to investigate the technical and economic value indicators of lithium-ion battery energy storage systems (BESS) in grid-scale applications. In order to do that, a comprehensive performance lithium-ion BESS model with degradation effects estimation is developed. The model development process implies literature review on lifetime modelling, use, and modification of previous study progress, building the additional system parts and integrating it into a complete tool. The constructed model is capable of describing the dynamic behavior of the BESS voltage, state of charge, temperature and capacity loss. Five control strategies for BESS unit providing primary frequency regulation are implemented, in addition to the model. The questions related to BESS dimensioning and the end of life (EoL) criterion are addressed. Simulations are performed with one-month real frequency data acquired from Fingrid. The lifetime and cost-benefit analysis of the simulation results allow to compare and determine the preferable control strategy. Finally, the study performs the sensitivity analysis of economic profitability with variable size, EoL and system price. The research reports that BESS can be profitable in certain cases and presents the recommendations.

Factors Underlying Heterogeneous Individual Growth in Macrobrachium rosenbergii and the Effect of Size Heterogeneity on Economic Feasibility of Farming in Kuttanad ( Kerala )

School of Industrial Fisheries, Cochin University of Science and Technology