Ajuste fiscal no Brasil: algumas considerações de caráter pós-keynesian

Fiscal adjustment in Brazil: Some considerations under a post Keynesian approach. The article analyses the main issues concerned to fiscal policy in Brazil. For doing so, it assumes a Post Keynesian approach on this issue. First, it observes the origins of the Brazilian fiscal crises, showing that the Brazilian external debt had a fundamental role to play in its configuration. After, it analyses the present conduction of the fiscal policy in Brazil, emphasizing the orthodox framework that support it. Finally, the Post Keynesian approach on fiscal policy and the role of the State, as an element essential to reach a greater economic stability is discussed, showing that there are several experiences that seems to have a Keynesian bias, but that has little relation to Keynes approach, as is the case of Brazil.

Discricionariedade vs. comprometimento: a análise de regras ótimas num contexto de regime de metas de inflação

O objetivo desta dissertação é analisar as regras de condução da política monetária em modelos em que os agentes formam suas expectativas de forma racional (forward looking models), no contexto do regime de metas de inflação. As soluções ótimas de pré - comprometimento e discricionária são derivadas e aplicadas a um modelo macroeconômico para a economia brasileira e os resultados são também comparados com os obtidos pela adoção da regra de Taylor. A análise do comportamento do modelo sob diferentes regras é feita através da construção da fronteira do trede-oit da variância do hiato do produto e da inflação e da análise dinâmica frente a ocorrência de choques. A discussão referente à análise dinâmica do modelo é estendida para o caso onde a persistência dos choques é variada.

Métodos econométricos para a análise do índice de inflação no Brasil

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A method for setting the size of plant conservation target areas

Realistic time frames in which management decisions are made often preclude the completion of the detailed analyses necessary for conservation planning. Under these circumstances, efficient alternatives may assist in approximating the results of more thorough studies that require extensive resources and time. We outline a set of concepts and formulas that may be used in lieu of detailed population viability analyses and habitat modeling exercises to estimate the protected areas required to provide desirable conservation outcomes for a suite of threatened plant species. We used expert judgment of parameters and assessment of a population size that results in a specified quasiextinction risk based on simple dynamic models The area required to support a population of this size is adjusted to take into account deterministic and stochastic human influences, including small-scale disturbance deterministic trends such as habitat loss, and changes in population density through processes such as predation and competition. We set targets for different disturbance regimes and geographic regions. We applied our methods to Banksia cuneata, Boronia keysii, and Parsonsia dorrigoensis, resulting in target areas for conservation of 1102, 733, and 1084 ha, respectively. These results provide guidance on target areas and priorities for conservation strategies.

Estudo da variabilidade inter-anual de diferentes regimes de vento

Mestrado em Engenharia Química. Ramo optimização energética na indústria química

How tight should one's hands be tied? Fear of floating and credibility of exchange rate regimes

This paper analyzes the linkages between the credibility of a target zone regime, the volatility of the exchange rate, and the width of the band where the exchange rate is allowed to fluctuate. These three concepts should be related since the band width induces a trade-off between credibility and volatility. Narrower bands should give less scope for the exchange rate to fluctuate but may make agents perceive a larger probability of realignment which by itself should increase the volatility of the exchange rate. We build a model where this trade-off is made explicit. The model is used to understand the reduction in volatility experienced by most EMS countries after their target zones were widened on August 1993. As a natural extension, the model also rationalizes the existence of non-official, implicit target zones (or fear of floating), suggested by some authors.

On the choice of an exchange rate regime: target zones revisited

From the classical gold standard up to the current ERM2 arrangement of the European Union, target zones have been a widely used exchange regime in contemporary history. This paper presents a benchmark model that rationalizes the choice of target zones over the rest of regimes: the fixed rate, the free float and the managed float. It is shown that the monetary authority may gain efficiency by reducing volatility of both the exchange rate and the interest rate at the same time. Furthermore, the model is consistent with some known stylized facts in the empirical literature that previous models were not able to produce, namely, the positive relation between the exchange rate and the interest rate differential, the degree of non-linearity of the function linking the exchage rate to fundamentals and the shape of the exchange rate stochastic distribution.

A Soft Edge Target Zone Model: Theory And Application To Hong Kong

Hong Kong’s currency is pegged to the US dollar in a currency board arrangement. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities revamped the one-sided currency board mechanism into a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band. This paper reviews the characteristics of the new currency board arrangement and embeds a theoretical soft edge target zone model typifying many intermediate regimes, to explain the notable achievement of speculative peace and credibility since May 2005.

Off-the-Record Target Zones: Theory with an Application to Hong Kongs Currency Board

This paper provides a modelling framework for evaluating the exchange rate dynamics of a target zone regime with undisclosed bands. We generalize the literature to allow for asymmetric one-sided regimes. Market participants' beliefs concerning an undisclosed band change as they learn more about central bank intervention policy. We apply the model to Hong Kong's one-sided currency board mechanism. In autumn 2003, the Hong Kong dollar appreciated from close to 7.80 per US dollar to 7.70, as investors feared that the currency board would be abandoned. In the wake of this appreciation, the monetary authorities finally revamped the regime as a symmetric two-sided system with a narrow exchange rate band.

The Effect of Two Speed Endurance Training Regimes on Performance of Soccer Players.

In order to better understand the specificity of training adaptations, we compared the effects of two different anaerobic training regimes on various types of soccer-related exercise performances. During the last 3 weeks of the competitive season, thirteen young male professional soccer players (age 18.5±1 yr, height 179.5±6.5 cm, body mass 74.3±6.5 kg) reduced the training volume by ~20% and replaced their habitual fitness conditioning work with either speed endurance production (SEP; n = 6) or speed endurance maintenance (SEM; n = 7) training, three times per wk. SEP training consisted of 6-8 reps of 20-s all-out running bouts followed by 2 min of passive recovery, whereas SEM training was characterized by 6-8 x 20-s all-out efforts interspersed with 40 s of passive recovery. SEP training reduced (p<0.01) the total time in a repeated sprint ability test (RSAt) by 2.5%. SEM training improved the 200-m sprint performance (from 26.59±0.70 to 26.02±0.62 s, p<0.01) and had a likely beneficial impact on the percentage decrement score of the RSA test (from 4.07±1.28 to 3.55±1.01%) but induced a very likely impairment in RSAt (from 83.81±2.37 to 84.65±2.27 s). The distance covered in the Yo-Yo Intermittent Recovery test level 2 was 10.1% (p<0.001) and 3.8% (p<0.05) higher after SEP and SEM training, respectively, with possibly greater improvements following SEP compared to SEM. No differences were observed in the 20- and 40-m sprint performances. In conclusion, these two training strategies target different determinants of soccer-related physical performance. SEP improved repeated sprint and high-intensity intermittent exercise performance, whereas SEM increased muscles' ability to maximize fatigue tolerance and maintain speed development during both repeated all-out and continuous short-duration maximal exercises. These results provide new insight into the precise nature of a stimulus necessary to improve specific types of athletic performance in trained young soccer players.

Do Inflation-Targeting Central Banks Implicitly Target the Price Level?

This paper reports graphical and statistical evidence that the inflation targeting regimes in Canada and the UK - but not in Australia, New Zealand, or Sweden - actually resemble price-level targeting. In particular, the price level closely tracks the path implied by the inflation target, and the time-series predictions of the "bygones-are-bygones" version of inflation targeting are rejected by the data in favor of those implied by price-level targeting. These results indicate heterogeneity in the actual application of inflation targeting across countries and, for Canada and the UK, imply that the characterization of inflation targeting as a policy where shocks are accommodated is at odds with the data. Moreover, up to extent that their current policies already resemble price-level targeting, the welfare gains of replacing inflation with (explicit) price-level targeting are likely to be small.

The trasition from fixed to floating exchange rate regimes: the case of Brazil

This dissertation evaluates macroeconomic management in Brazil from 1994 to the present, with particular focus on exchange rate policy. It points out that while Brazil's Real Plan succeeded in halting the hyperinflation that had reached more than 2000 percent in 1993, it also caused significant real appreciation of the exchange rate situation that was only made worse by the extremely high interest rates and ensuing bout of severe financial crises in the intemational arena. By the end of 1998, the accumulation of internai and externai imbalances led the authorities to drop foreign exchange controls and allow the currency to float. In spite of some initial scepticism, the flexible rate regime cum inflation target proved to work well. Inflation was kept under control; the current account position improved significantly, real interest rates fell and GDP growth resumed. Thus, while great challenges still lie ahead, the recent successes bestow some optimism on the well functioning of this exchange rate regime. The Brazilian case suggests that successful transition from one foreign exchange system to another, particularly during financial crisis, does not depend only on one variable be it fiscal or monetary. In reality, it depends on whole set of co-ordinated policies aimed at resuming price stability with as little exchange rate and output volatility as possible.

Mudanças de regimes na função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil : uma abordagem utilizando Markov Regime Switching

O presente trabalho busca identificar a ocorrência, duração e probabilidades de transição de diferentes regimes na condução da política monetária no Brasil a partir da implantação do sistema de metas de inflação em 1999. A estimação da função de reação do Banco Central do Brasil é realizada a partir de uma Regra de Taylor forward looking para uma economia aberta, onde utilizamos a metodologia Markov Regime Switching para caracterizar de forma endógena os diferentes regimes de política monetária. Os resultados obtidos indicam a ocorrência de três regimes distintos de política monetária a partir da implantação do sistema de metas de inflação no Brasil. O primeiro regime ocorre durante 21% do período estudado e se caracteriza pela não aderência ao princípio de Taylor e discricionariedade da autoridade monetária, que reage demonstrando maior sensibilidade ao hiato do produto. O segundo regime é o de maior duração, ocorre durante 67% do período estudado, e se caracteriza pela aderência ao princípio de Taylor e equilíbrio nos pesos atribuídos pelo Banco Central tanto ao hiato do produto como ao desvio das expectativas de inflação com relação à meta. Já o terceiro regime ocorre durante 12% do período estudado e se caracteriza não somente pela aderência ao princípio de Taylor, como também por uma maior aversão ao desvio das expectativas de inflação com relação à meta.

Identification Of Target Genes Using Gene Expression Profile Of Granulocytes From Patients With Chronic Myeloid Leukemia Treated With Tyrosine Kinase Inhibitors.

Differential gene expression analysis by suppression subtractive hybridization with correlation to the metabolic pathways involved in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) may provide a new insight into the pathogenesis of CML. Among the overexpressed genes found in CML at diagnosis are SEPT5, RUNX1, MIER1, KPNA6 and FLT3, while PAN3, TOB1 and ITCH were decreased when compared to healthy volunteers. Some genes were identified and involved in CML for the first time, including TOB1, which showed a low expression in patients with CML during tyrosine kinase inhibitor treatment with no complete cytogenetic response. In agreement, reduced expression of TOB1 was also observed in resistant patients with CML compared to responsive patients. This might be related to the deregulation of apoptosis and the signaling pathway leading to resistance. Most of the identified genes were related to the regulation of nuclear factor κB (NF-κB), AKT, interferon and interleukin-4 (IL-4) in healthy cells. The results of this study combined with literature data show specific gene pathways that might be explored as markers to assess the evolution and prognosis of CML as well as identify new therapeutic targets.

Stathmin 1, A Therapeutic Target In Esophageal Carcinoma?

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