Evaluation of tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival, and time to progression as potential surrogate end points in metastatic breast cancer.

PURPOSE: Overall survival (OS) can be observed only after prolonged follow-up, and any potential effect of first-line therapies on OS may be confounded by the effects of subsequent therapy. We investigated whether tumor response, disease control, progression-free survival (PFS), or time to progression (TTP) could be considered a valid surrogate for OS to assess the benefits of first-line therapies for patients with metastatic breast cancer. PATIENTS AND METHODS: Individual patient data were collected on 3,953 patients in 11 randomized trials that compared an anthracycline (alone or in combination) with a taxane (alone or in combination with an anthracycline). Surrogacy was assessed through the correlation between the end points as well as through the correlation between the treatment effects on the end points. RESULTS: Tumor response (survival odds ratio [OR], 6.2; 95% CI, 5.3 to 7.0) and disease control (survival OR, 5.5; 95% CI, 4.8 to 6.3) were strongly associated with OS. PFS (rank correlation coefficient, 0.688; 95% CI, 0.686 to 0.690) and TTP (rank correlation coefficient, 0.682; 95% CI, 0.680 to 0.684) were moderately associated with OS. Response log ORs were strongly correlated with PFS log hazard ratios (linear coefficient [rho], 0.96; 95% CI, 0.73 to 1.19). Response and disease control log ORs and PFS and TTP log hazard ratios were poorly correlated with log hazard ratios for OS, but the confidence limits of rho were too wide to be informative. CONCLUSION: No end point could be demonstrated as a good surrogate for OS in these trials. Tumor response may be an acceptable surrogate for PFS.

DMT of Multihop Networks: End Points and Computational Tools

In this paper, the diversity-multiplexing gain tradeoff (DMT) of single-source, single-sink (ss-ss), multihop relay networks having slow-fading links is studied. In particular, the two end-points of the DMT of ss-ss full-duplex networks are determined, by showing that the maximum achievable diversity gain is equal to the min-cut and that the maximum multiplexing gain is equal to the min-cut rank, the latter by using an operational connection to a deterministic network. Also included in the paper, are several results that aid in the computation of the DMT of networks operating under amplify-and-forward (AF) protocols. In particular, it is shown that the colored noise encountered in amplify-and-forward protocols can be treated as white for the purpose of DMT computation, lower bounds on the DMT of lower-triangular channel matrices are derived and the DMT of parallel MIMO channels is computed. All protocols appearing in the paper are explicit and rely only upon AF relaying. Half-duplex networks and explicit coding schemes are studied in a companion paper.

Clinical end points for drug treatment trials in BCR-ABL1-negative classic myeloproliferative neoplasms: consensus statements from European LeukemiaNET (ELN) and Internation Working Group-Myeloproliferative Neoplasms Research and Treatment (IWG-MRT)

The discovery of somatic mutations, primarily JAK2V617F and CALR, in classic BCR-ABL1-negative myeloproliferative neoplasms (MPNs) has generated interest in the development of molecularly targeted therapies, whose accurate assessment requires a standardized framework. A working group, comprised of members from European LeukemiaNet (ELN) and International Working Group for MPN Research and Treatment (IWG-MRT), prepared consensus-based recommendations regarding trial design, patient selection and definition of relevant end points. Accordingly, a response able to capture the long-term effect of the drug should be selected as the end point of phase II trials aimed at developing new drugs for MPNs. A time-to-event, such as overall survival, or progression-free survival or both, as co-primary end points, should measure efficacy in phase III studies. New drugs should be tested for preventing disease progression in myelofibrosis patients with early disease in randomized studies, and a time to event, such as progression-free or event-free survival should be the primary end point. Phase III trials aimed at preventing vascular events in polycythemia vera and essential thrombocythemia should be based on a selection of the target population based on new prognostic factors, including JAK2 mutation. In conclusion, we recommended a format for clinical trials in MPNs that facilitates communication between academic investigators, regulatory agencies and drug companies.

High-Pressure Micellar Solutions of Polystyrene-block-polybutadiene and Polystyrene-block-polyisoprene in Propane Exhibit Cloud-Pressure Reduction and Distinct Micellization End Points

Micellar solutions of polystyrene-block-polybutadiene and polystyrene-block-polyisoprene in propane are found to exhibit significantly lower cloud pressures than the corresponding hypothetical nonmicellar solutions. Such a cloud-pressure reduction indicates the extent to which micelle formation enhances the apparent diblock solubility in near-critical and hence compressible propane. Concentration-dependent pressure-temperature points beyond which no micelles can be formed, referred to as the micellization end points, are found to depend on the block type, size, and ratio. The cloud-pressure reduction and the micellization end point measured for styrene-diene diblocks in propane should be characteristic of all amphiphilic diblock copolymer solutions that form micelles in compressible solvents.

Cardiorenal End Points in a Trial of Aliskiren for Type 2 Diabetes

BACKGROUND: This study was undertaken to determine whether use of the direct renin inhibitor aliskiren would reduce cardiovascular and renal events in patients with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease, cardiovascular disease, or both. METHODS: In a double-blind fashion, we randomly assigned 8561 patients to aliskiren (300 mg daily) or placebo as an adjunct to an angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor or an angiotensin-receptor blocker. The primary end point was a composite of the time to cardiovascular death or a first occurrence of cardiac arrest with resuscitation; nonfatal myocardial infarction; nonfatal stroke; unplanned hospitalization for heart failure; end-stage renal disease, death attributable to kidney failure, or the need for renal-replacement therapy with no dialysis or transplantation available or initiated; or doubling of the baseline serum creatinine level. RESULTS: The trial was stopped prematurely after the second interim efficacy analysis. After a median follow-up of 32.9 months, the primary end point had occurred in 783 patients (18.3%) assigned to aliskiren as compared with 732 (17.1%) assigned to placebo (hazard ratio, 1.08; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.98 to 1.20; P=0.12). Effects on secondary renal end points were similar. Systolic and diastolic blood pressures were lower with aliskiren (between-group differences, 1.3 and 0.6 mm Hg, respectively) and the mean reduction in the urinary albumin-to-creatinine ratio was greater (between-group difference, 14 percentage points; 95% CI, 11 to 17). The proportion of patients with hyperkalemia (serum potassium level, ≥6 mmol per liter) was significantly higher in the aliskiren group than in the placebo group (11.2% vs. 7.2%), as was the proportion with reported hypotension (12.1% vs. 8.3%) (P<0.001 for both comparisons). CONCLUSIONS: The addition of aliskiren to standard therapy with renin-angiotensin system blockade in patients with type 2 diabetes who are at high risk for cardiovascular and renal events is not supported by these data and may even be harmful. (Funded by Novartis; ALTITUDE ClinicalTrials.gov number, NCT00549757.).

Clinical end points in coronary stent trials: a case for standardized definitions

BACKGROUND: Although most clinical trials of coronary stents have measured nominally identical safety and effectiveness end points, differences in definitions and timing of assessment have created confusion in interpretation. METHODS AND RESULTS: The Academic Research Consortium is an informal collaboration between academic research organizations in the United States and Europe. Two meetings, in Washington, DC, in January 2006 and in Dublin, Ireland, in June 2006, sponsored by the Academic Research Consortium and including representatives of the US Food and Drug Administration and all device manufacturers who were working with the Food and Drug Administration on drug-eluting stent clinical trial programs, were focused on consensus end point definitions for drug-eluting stent evaluations. The effort was pursued with the objective to establish consistency among end point definitions and provide consensus recommendations. On the basis of considerations from historical legacy to key pathophysiological mechanisms and relevance to clinical interpretability, criteria for assessment of death, myocardial infarction, repeat revascularization, and stent thrombosis were developed. The broadly based consensus end point definitions in this document may be usefully applied or recognized for regulatory and clinical trial purposes. CONCLUSION: Although consensus criteria will inevitably include certain arbitrary features, consensus criteria for clinical end points provide consistency across studies that can facilitate the evaluation of safety and effectiveness of these devices.

Clinical trials in cystic fibrosis

In patients with cystic fibrosis (CF), clinical trials are of paramount importance. Here, the current status of drug development in CF is discussed and future directions highlighted. Methods for pre-clinical testing of drugs with potential activity in CF patients including relevant animal models are described. Study design options for phase II and phase III studies involving CF patients are provided, including required patient numbers, safety issues and surrogate end point parameters for drugs, tested for different disease manifestations. Finally, regulatory issues for licensing new therapies for CF patients are discussed, including new directives of the European Union and the structure of a European clinical trial network for clinical studies involving CF patients is proposed.

Longitudinal outcomes of high-risk human papillomavirus (HPV) infections as competing-risks events following cervical HPV test at baseline visit in the *NIS-LAMS** cohort

Background: The complex natural history of human papillomavirus (HPV) infections following a single HPV test can be modeled as competing-risks events (i.e., no-, transient- or persistent infection) in a longitudinal setting. The covariates associated with these compet ng events have not been previously assessed using competing-risks regression models. Objectives: To gain further insights in the outcomes of cervical HPV infections, we used univariate- and multivariate competing-risks regression models to assess the covariaies associated with these competing events. Study Design and Methods: Covariates associated with three competing outcomes (no-, transient- or persistent HR-HPV infection) were analysed in a sub-cohort of 1,865 women prospectively followed-up in the NIS (n = 3,187) and LAMS Study (n = 12,114). Results: In multivariate competing-risks models (with two other outcomes as competing events), permanently HR-HPV negative outcome was significantly predicted only by the clearance of ASCUS+Pap during FU, while three independent covariates predicted transient HR-HPV infections: i) number of recent (< 12 months) sexual partners (risk increased), ii) previous Pap screening history (protective), and history of previous CIN (increased risk). The two most powerful predictors of persistent HR-HPV infections were persistent ASCUS+Pap (risk increased), and previous Pap screening history (protective). In pair-wise comparisons, number of recent sexual partners and previous CIN history increase the probability of transient HR-HPV infection against the HR-HPV negative competing event, while previous Pap screening history is protective. Persistent ASCUS+Pap during FU and no previous Pap screening history are significantly associated with the persistent HR-HPV outcome (compared both with i) always negative, and ii) transient events), whereas multiparity is protective. Conclusions: Different covariates are associated with the three main outcomes of cervical HPV infections. The most significant covariates of each competing events are probably distinct enough to enable constructing of a risk-profile for each main outcome.

Complete cytogenetic response and major molecular response as surrogate outcomes for overall survival in first-line treatment of chronic myelogenous leukemia: A case study for technology appraisal on the basis of surrogate outcomes evidence

Objectives In 2012, the National Institute for Health and Care Excellence assessed dasatinib, nilotinib, and standard-dose imatinib as first-line treatment of chronic phase chronic myelogenous leukemia (CML). Licensing of these alternative treatments was based on randomized controlled trials assessing complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) and major molecular response (MMR) at 12 months as primary end points. We use this case study to illustrate the validation of CCyR and MMR as surrogate outcomes for overall survival in CML and how this evidence was used to inform National Institute for Health and Care Excellence’s recommendation on the public funding of these first-line treatments for CML. Methods We undertook a systematic review and meta-analysis to quantify the association between CCyR and MMR at 12 months and overall survival in patients with chronic phase CML. We estimated life expectancy by extrapolating long-term survival from the weighted overall survival stratified according to the achievement of CCyR and MMR. Results Five studies provided data on the observational association between CCyR or MMR and overall survival. Based on the pooled association between CCyR and MMR and overall survival, our modeling showed comparable predicted mean duration of survival (21–23 years) following first-line treatment with imatinib, dasatinib, or nilotinib. Conclusions This case study illustrates the consideration of surrogate outcome evidence in health technology assessment. Although it is often recommended that the acceptance of surrogate outcomes be based on randomized controlled trial data demonstrating an association between the treatment effect on both the surrogate outcome and the final outcome, this case study shows that policymakers may be willing to accept a lower level of evidence (i.e., observational association).

ELF (Enhanced Liver Fibrosis) como marcador não invasivo de fibrose hepáticana hepatite C crônica

A fibrose hepática é o aspecto mais relevante e o mais importante determinante de morbimortalidade na hepatite C crônica (HCC). Historicamente, a biópsia hepática é o método de referência para avaliação da fibrose causada pela HCC, apesar de apresentar limitações. O estudo de marcadores não invasivos, que possam obviar a necessidade da biópsia, é uma área de constante interesse na hepatologia. Idealmente, a avaliação da fibrose hepática deveria ser acurada, simples, prontamente disponível, de baixo custo e informar sobre o prognóstico da patologia. Os marcadores não invasivos mais estudados são a elastografia hepática transitória (EHT) e os laboratoriais. A EHT já foi extensamente validada na HCC e está inserida na rotina de avaliação destes pacientes. Dentre os laboratoriais, existem diversos testes em continua experimentação e, até o momento, nenhum foi integrado à prática clínica no Brasil, embora já aplicados rotineiramente em outros países. O Enhanced Liver Fibrosis (ELF), um teste que dosa no soro ácido hialurônico, pró-peptídeo amino-terminal do colágeno tipo III e inibidor tissular da metaloproteinase 1, tem se mostrado bastante eficaz na detecção de fibrose hepática significativa e de cirrose na HCC. Neste estudo o ELF teve o seu desempenho avaliado em relação a biópsia hepática e demonstrou apresentar boa acurácia na detecção tanto de fibrose significativa quanto de cirrose. Na comparação com a EHT apresentou acurácia semelhante para estes mesmos desfechos, com significância estatística. No entanto, foi observada uma superestimação da fibrose com a utilização dos pontos de corte propostos pelo fabricante. Este achado está em acordo com a literatura, onde não há consenso sobre o melhor ponto de corte a ser empregado na prática clínica. Com a ampliação da casuística foi possível propor novos pontos de corte, através da análise clássica, com a biópsia hepática como padrão ouro. O resultado obtido vai ao encontro do observado por outros autores. Em seguida, os novos pontos de corte do ELF foram reavaliados sem que a biópsia hepática fosse a referência, através da análise de classes latentes. Mais uma vez o ELF apresentou bom desempenho, inclusive com melhora de suas sensibilidade e especificidade em comparação com a análise clássica, onde a biópsia hepática é a referência. Assim sendo, é possível concluir que o ELF é um bom marcador não invasivo de fibrose hepática. No entanto, para detecção de fibrose significativa e cirrose, deve ser considerada a aplicação na prática clínica dos novos pontos de corte aqui propostos.

In vitro and in vivo models of colorectal cancer: antigenotoxic activity of berries.

The etiology of colorectal cancer (CRC), a common cause of cancer-related mortality globally, has strong associations with diet. There is considerable epidemiological evidence that fruits and vegetables are associated with reduced risk of CRC. This paper reviews the extensive evidence, both from in vitro studies and animal models, that components of berry fruits can modulate biomarkers of DNA damage and that these effects may be potentially chemoprotective, given the likely role that oxidative damage plays in mutation rate and cancer risk. Human intervention trials with berries are generally consistent in indicating a capacity to significantly decrease oxidative damage to DNA, but represent limited evidence for anticarcinogenicity, relying as they do on surrogate risk markers. To understand the effects of berry consumption on colorectal cancer risk, future studies will need to be well controlled, with defined berry extracts, using suitable and clinically relevant end points and considering the importance of the gut microbiota.