Flippable Pairs and Subset Comparisons in Comparative Probability Orderings and Related Simple Games

We show that every additively representable comparative probability order on n atoms is determined by at least n - 1 binary subset comparisons. We show that there are many orders of this kind, not just the lexicographic order. These results provide answers to two questions of Fishburn et al (2002). We also study the flip relation on the class of all comparative probability orders introduced by Maclagan. We generalise an important theorem of Fishburn, Peke?c and Reeds, by showing that in any minimal set of comparisons that determine a comparative probability order, all comparisons are flippable. By calculating the characteristics of the flip relation for n = 6 we discover that the regions in the corresponding hyperplane arrangement can have no more than 13 faces and that there are 20 regions with 13 faces. All the neighbours of the 20 comparative probability orders which correspond to those regions are representable. Finally we define a class of simple games with complete desirability relation for which its strong desirability relation is acyclic, and show that the flip relation carries all the information about these games. We show that for n = 6 these games are weighted majority games.

Using paleo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

We present a description of the theoretical framework and "best practice" for using the paleo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to constrain future projections of climate using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting paleo-climate changes from the present over 3 periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 thousand years before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of paleo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with paleoclimate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also find that some comparisons, for instance associated with model variability, are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing timeseries, or show time dependent behaviour, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the paleo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modeling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

Using palaeo-climate comparisons to constrain future projections in CMIP5

We present a selection of methodologies for using the palaeo-climate model component of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (Phase 5) (CMIP5) to attempt to constrain future climate projections using the same models. The constraints arise from measures of skill in hindcasting palaeo-climate changes from the present over three periods: the Last Glacial Maximum (LGM) (21 000 yr before present, ka), the mid-Holocene (MH) (6 ka) and the Last Millennium (LM) (850–1850 CE). The skill measures may be used to validate robust patterns of climate change across scenarios or to distinguish between models that have differing outcomes in future scenarios. We find that the multi-model ensemble of palaeo-simulations is adequate for addressing at least some of these issues. For example, selected benchmarks for the LGM and MH are correlated to the rank of future projections of precipitation/temperature or sea ice extent to indicate that models that produce the best agreement with palaeo-climate information give demonstrably different future results than the rest of the models. We also explore cases where comparisons are strongly dependent on uncertain forcing time series or show important non-stationarity, making direct inferences for the future problematic. Overall, we demonstrate that there is a strong potential for the palaeo-climate simulations to help inform the future projections and urge all the modelling groups to complete this subset of the CMIP5 runs.

Anxiety among high school students in India : comparisons across gender, school type, social strata, and perceptions of quality time with parents

The broad objective of the study was to better understand anxiety among adolescents in Kolkata city, India. Specifically, the study compared anxiety across gender, school type, socio-economic background and mothers’ employment status. The study also examined adolescents’ perceptions of quality time with their parents. A group of 460 adolescents (220 boys and 240 girls), aged 13-17 years were recruited to participate in the study via a multi-stage sampling technique. The data were collected using a self-report semi-structured questionnaire and a standardized psychological test, the State-Trait Anxiety Inventory. Results show that anxiety was prevalent in the sample with 20.1% of boys and 17.9% of girls found to be suffering from high anxiety. More boys were anxious than girls (p<0.01). Adolescents from Bengali medium schools were more anxious than adolescents from English medium schools (p<0.01). Adolescents belonging to the middle class (middle socio-economic group) suffered more anxiety than those from both high and low socio-economic groups (p<0.01). Adolescents with working mothers were found to be more anxious (p<0.01). Results also show that a substantial proportion of the adolescents perceived they did not receive quality time from fathers (32.1%) and mothers (21.3%). A large number of them also did not feel comfortable to share their personal issues with their parents (60.0% for fathers and 40.0% for mothers).

International comparisons of Malaysian construction labour productivity

Productivity is basic statistical information for many international comparisons and country performance assessments. This study estimates the construction labour productivity of 79 selected economies. The real (purchasing power parities converted) and nominal construction expenditure from the Report of 2005 International Comparison Programme published by the World Bank and construction employment from the database of labour statistics (LABORSTA) operated by the Bureau of Statistics of International Labour Organization were used in the estimation. The inference statistics indicate that the descending order of nominal construction labour productivity from high income economies to low income economies is not established. The average construction labour productivity of low income economies is higher than middle income economies when the productivity calculation uses purchasing power parities converted data. Malaysia ranked 50th and 63rd position among the 79 selected economies on real and nominal measurement respectively.

Morphologic and genomic characterisation of the koala Chlamydia pneumoniae strain

Chlamydia pneumoniae is a common human and animal pathogen associated with a wide range of upper and lower respiratory tract infections. In more recent years there has been increasing evidence to suggest a link between C. pneumoniae and chronic diseases in humans, including atherosclerosis, stroke and Alzheimer’s disease. C. pneumoniae human strains show little genetic variation, indicating that the human-derived strain originated from a common ancestor in the recent past. Despite extensive information on the genetics and morphology processes of the human strain, knowledge concerning many other hosts (including marsupials, amphibians, reptiles and equines) remains virtually unexplored. The koala (Phascolarctos cinereus) is a native Australian marsupial under threat due to habitat loss, predation and disease. Koalas are very susceptible to chlamydial infections, most commonly affecting the conjunctiva, urogenital tract and/or respiratory tract. To address this gap in the literature, the present study (i) provides a detailed description of the morphologic and genomic architecture of the C. pneumoniae koala (and human) strain, and shows that the koala strain is microscopically, developmentally and genetically distinct from the C. pneumoniae human strain, and (ii) examines the genetic relationship of geographically diverse C. pneumoniae isolates from human, marsupial, amphibian, reptilian and equine hosts, and identifies two distinct lineages that have arisen from animal-to-human cross species transmissions. Chapter One of this thesis explores the scientific problem and aims of this study, while Chapter Two provides a detailed literature review of the background in this field of work. Chapter Three, the first results chapter, describes the morphology and developmental stages of C. pneumoniae koala isolate LPCoLN, as revealed by fluorescence and transmission electron microscopy. The profile of this isolate, when cultured in HEp-2 human epithelial cells, was quite different to the human AR39 isolate. Koala LPCoLN inclusions were larger; the elementary bodies did not have the characteristic pear-shaped appearance, and the developmental cycle was completed within a shorter period of time (as confirmed by quantitative real-time PCR). These in vitro findings might reflect biological differences between koala LPCoLN and human AR39 in vivo. Chapter Four describes the complete genome sequence of the koala respiratory pathogen, C. pneumoniae LPCoLN. This is the first animal isolate of C. pneumoniae to be fully-sequenced. The genome sequence provides new insights into genomic ‘plasticity’ (organisation), evolution and biology of koala LPCoLN, relative to four complete C. pneumoniae human genomes (AR39, CWL029, J138 and TW183). Koala LPCoLN contains a plasmid that is not shared with any of the human isolates, there is evidence of gene loss in nucleotide salvage pathways, and there are 10 hot spot genomic regions of variation that were previously not identified in the C. pneumoniae human genomes. Sequence (partial-length) from a second, independent, wild koala isolate (EBB) at several gene loci confirmed that the koala LPCoLN isolate was representative of a koala C. pneumoniae strain. The combined sequence data provides evidence that the C. pneumoniae animal (koala LPCoLN) genome is ancestral to the C. pneumoniae human genomes and that human infections may have originated from zoonotic infections. Chapter Five examines key genome components of the five C. pneumoniae genomes in more detail. This analysis reveals genomic features that are shared by and/or contribute to the broad ecological adaptability and evolution of C. pneumoniae. This analysis resulted in the identification of 65 gene sequences for further analysis of intraspecific variation, and revealed some interesting differences, including fragmentation, truncation and gene decay (loss of redundant ancestral traits). This study provides valuable insights into metabolic diversity, adaptation and evolution of C. pneumoniae. Chapter Six utilises a subset of 23 target genes identified from the previous genomic comparisons and makes a significant contribution to our understanding of genetic variability among C. pneumoniae human (11) and animal (6 amphibian, 5 reptilian, 1 equine and 7 marsupial hosts) isolates. It has been shown that the animal isolates are genetically diverse, unlike the human isolates that are virtually clonal. More convincing evidence that C. pneumoniae originated in animals and recently (in the last few hundred thousand years) crossed host species to infect humans is provided in this study. It is proposed that two animal-to-human cross species events have occurred in the context of the results, one evident by the nearly clonal human genotype circulating in the world today, and the other by a more animal-like genotype apparent in Indigenous Australians. Taken together, these data indicate that the C. pneumoniae koala LPCoLN isolate has morphologic and genomic characteristics that are distinct from the human isolates. These differences may affect the survival and activity of the C. pneumoniae koala pathogen in its natural host, in vivo. This study, by utilising the genetic diversity of C. pneumoniae, identified new genetic markers for distinguishing human and animal isolates. However, not all C. pneumoniae isolates were genetically diverse; in fact, several isolates were highly conserved, if not identical in sequence (i.e. Australian marsupials) emphasising that at some stage in the evolution of this pathogen, there has been an adaptation/s to a particular host, providing some stability in the genome. The outcomes of this study by experimental and bioinformatic approaches have significantly enhanced our knowledge of the biology of this pathogen and will advance opportunities for the investigation of novel vaccine targets, antimicrobial therapy, or blocking of pathogenic pathways.

Service bid comparisons by fuzzy ranking in open railway market timetabling

In an open railway access market, the Infrastructure Provider (IP), upon the receipts of service bids from the Train Service Providers (TSPs), assigns track access rights according to its own business objectives and the merits of the bids; and produces the train service timetable through negotiations. In practice, IP chooses to negotiate with the TSPs one by one in such a sequence that IP optimizes its objectives. The TSP bids are usually very complicated, containing a large number of parameters in different natures. It is a difficult task even for an expert to give a priority sequence for negotiations from the contents of the bids. This study proposes the application of fuzzy ranking method to compare and prioritize the TSP bids in order to produce a negotiation sequence. The results of this study allow investigations on the behaviors of the stakeholders in bid preparation and negotiation, as well as evaluation of service quality in the open railway market.

Across-country comparisons of selected infant and young child feeding indicators and associated factors in four South Asian countries

Background: Information on infant and young child feeding is widely available in Demographic and Health Surveys and National Family Health Surveys for countries in South Asia; however, infant and young child feeding indicators from these surveys have not been compared between countries in the region. Objective. To compare the key indicators of breastfeeding and complementary feeding and their determinants in children under 24 months of age between four South Asian countries. Methods: We selected data sets from the Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey 2004, the India National Family Health Survey (NFHS-03) 2005–06, the Nepal Demographic and Health Survey 2006, and the Sri Lanka 2000 Demographic and Health Survey. Infant feeding indicators were estimated according to the key World Health Organization indicators. Results: Exclusive breastfeeding rates were 42.5% in Bangladesh, 46.4% in India, and 53.1% in Nepal. The rate of full breastfeeding ranged between 60.6% and 73.9%. There were no factors consistently associated with the rate of no exclusive breastfeeding across countries. Utilization of health services (more antenatal clinic visits) was associated with higher rates of exclusive breastfeeding in India but lower rates in Nepal. Delivery at a health facility was a negative determinant of exclusive breastfeeding in India. Postnatal contacts by Public Health Midwives were a positive factor in Sri Lanka. A considerable proportion of infants under 6 months of age had been given plain water, juices, or other nonmilk liquids. The rate of timely first suckling ranged from 23.5% in India to 56.3% in Sri Lanka. Delivery by cesarean section was found to be a consistent negative factor that delayed initiation of breastfeeding. Nepal reported the lowest bottle-feeding rate of 3.5%. Socioeconomically privileged mothers were found to have higher bottlefeeding rates in most countries. Conclusions: Infant and young child feeding practices in the South Asia region have not reached the expected levels that are required to achieve a substantial reduction in child mortality. The countries with lower rates of exclusive breastfeeding have a great potential to improve the rates by preventing infants from receiving water and water-based or other nonmilk liquids during the first 6 months of life.

Optimism about safety and group-serving interpretations of safety among pedestrians and cyclists in relation to road use in general and under low light conditions

Drivers are known to be optimistic about their risk of crash involvement, believing that they are less likely to be involved in a crash than other drivers. However, little comparative research has been conducted among other road users. In addition, optimism about crash risk is conceptualised as applying only to an individual’s assessment of his or her personal risk of crash involvement. The possibility that the self-serving nature of optimism about safety might be generalised to the group-level as a cyclist or a pedestrian, i.e., becoming group-serving rather than self-serving, has been overlooked in relation to road safety. This study analysed a subset of data collected as part of a larger research project on the visibility of pedestrians, cyclists and road workers, focusing on a set of questionnaire items administered to 406 pedestrians, 838 cyclists and 622 drivers. The items related to safety in various scenarios involving drivers, pedestrians and cyclists, allowing predictions to be derived about group differences in agreement with items based on the assumption that the results would exhibit group-serving bias. Analysis of the responses indicated that specific hypotheses about group-serving interpretations of safety and responsibility were supported in 22 of the 26 comparisons. When the nine comparisons relevant to low lighting conditions were considered separately, seven were found to be supported. The findings of the research have implications for public education and for the likely acceptance of messages which are inconsistent with current assumptions and expectations of pedestrians and cyclists. They also suggest that research into group-serving interpretations of safety, even for temporary roles rather than enduring groups, could be fruitful. Further, there is an implication that gains in safety can be made by better educating road users about the limitations of their visibility and the ramifications of this for their own road safety, particularly in low light.

Age and gender comparisons of driving while sleepy : behaviours and risk perceptions

To assist road safety professionals in developing effective strategies to combat the risk associated with driving while fatigued, a survey was administered to 1000 Australian drivers. Participants reported their past behaviours in regards to driving while sleepy and their perceptions of risk associated with driving fatigued as compared to speeding and driving under the influence of alcohol. Although participants appeared to be aware of the substantial risk associated with driving while sleepy, many drivers reported that they frequently drive when sleepy. Age and gender comparisons, revealed that risk taking behaviour in regards to driving while sleepy is occurring across all age groups and in both male and female drivers. Overall young to middle age drivers and male drivers reported the highest frequency of driving while sleepy and reported the lowest perceived personal risk in regards to driving while sleepy.

Cross-cultural comparisons of health-related quality of life in Australian and Japanese midlife women

Objective: The purpose of this study was to address (1) the existence of an association between menopausal status and the health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in Australian and Japanese women and (2) the relative contributions of menopausal status, modifiable lifestyle risk factors, health, and sociodemographic factors on HRQOL. Design: The Australian and Japanese Midlife Women's Health Study (AJMWHS) was a multisite, population-based study conducted in 2001 to 2002. Measures were conducted on data collected from a survey questionnaire used for a sample of women from Australia and Japan. HRQOL was assessed with seven subscales from the Short Form-36. Results: The differences seen in physical functioning, general health, and vitality are significant. The results support an effect of country of residence on physical functioning and general health. The impact of menopausal status on HRQOL was significantly associated with bodily pain and role-emotional. The country of residence did have a modifying effect on the relationship between menopausal status and physical functioning. After control for confounders, there was a significant difference between Australian and Japanese women for HRQOL. Menopausal status was not associated with HRQOL in the areas of general health and physical functioning. Modifiable lifestyle risk factors contributed more highly to HRQOL for the Australian women than for the Japanese women. If the women had a lowered body mass index, undertook physical activity, consumed dietary phytoestrogens, and used alcohol, their physical functioning seemed to be better. Differences were seen in the contributions to HRQOL in these areas, with lower body mass index in the Australian women and physical activity in the Japanese women being the highest predictors. Somatic and psychological symptoms seem to negatively affect both Japanese and Australian women's physical functioning, contributing more than sociodemographic factors, menopausal status, and behavioral determinants combined to general health and physical functioning. Conclusions: It is important that that consideration be given to incorporating the same tool within the cross-cultural design of studies so that comparisons between cultures and patterns of healthy aging can be made. The research suggests that there seems to be variations across Australian and Japanese midlife women in some areas of HRQOL and some factors that contribute to these areas.