Aversion Analysis

In this paper : a) the consumer’s problem is studied over two periods, the second one involving S states, and the consumer being endowed with S+1 incomes and having access to N financial assets; b) the consumer is then representable by a continuously differentiable system of demands, commodity demands, asset demands and desirabilities of incomes (the S+1 Lagrange multiplier of the S+1 constraints); c) the multipliers can be transformed into subjective Arrow prices; d) the effects of the various incomes on these Arrow prices decompose into a compensation effect (an Antonelli matrix) and a wealth effect; e) the Antonelli matrix has rank S-N, the dimension of incompleteness, if the consumer can financially adjust himself when facing income shocks; f) the matrix has rank S, if not; g) in the first case, the matrix represents a residual aversion; in the second case, a fundamental aversion; the difference between them is an aversion to illiquidity; this last relation corresponds to the Drèze-Modigliani decomposition (1972); h) the fundamental aversion decomposes also into an aversion to impatience and a risk aversion; i) the above decompositions span a third decomposition; if there exists a sure asset (to be defined, the usual definition being too specific), the fundamental aversion admits a three-component decomposition, an aversion to impatience, a residual aversion and an aversion to the illiquidity of risky assets; j) the formulas of the corresponding financial premiums are also presented.

Dweller perception using fuzzy logic for slum upgrading

A large number of initiatives in cities in Brazil - including slum clearance and upgrading - have been undertaken over the years in an effort to ameliorate the problems arising from informal occupation; unfortunately, however, little is known about the related performance outcomes. Careful appraisal of the results of such initiatives is thus called for, covering evaluations of dwellers` perceptions of the upgraded environments. Among the available evaluation methods, post-occupancy evaluation (POE) is commonly employed, although it fails adequately to reflect prevailing subjective concepts of quality. The present paper contains the partial findings of a research exercise aimed at developing an original method, using fuzzy logic, for urban environmental quality evaluation in informally occupied areas on the basis of combining quantitative indicators and dweller perception. It combines POE with fuzzy logic in order to develop tools that can better model the uncertain information that emerges from that kind of study. This paper aims to introduce an uncertainty measure used in order to identify the strengths and weaknesses of slum upgrading projects. The results show that it is possible to quantify certainty degrees in the findings and to define if additional information is needed.

Indirect certainty equivalents for the firm facing price and production uncertainty

Producer decisionmaking under uncertainty is characterized using indirect objective functions. The characterization is for the class of producers with continuous and nondecreasing preferences over stochastic incomes who face both price and production uncertainty. (C) 2002 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.

Comparing predictions of extinction risk using models and subjective judgement

Models of population dynamics are commonly used to predict risks in ecology, particularly risks of population decline. There is often considerable uncertainty associated with these predictions. However, alternatives to predictions based on population models have not been assessed. We used simulation models of hypothetical species to generate the kinds of data that might typically be available to ecologists and then invited other researchers to predict risks of population declines using these data. The accuracy of the predictions was assessed by comparison with the forecasts of the original model. The researchers used either population models or subjective judgement to make their predictions. Predictions made using models were only slightly more accurate than subjective judgements of risk. However, predictions using models tended to be unbiased, while subjective judgements were biased towards over-estimation. Psychology literature suggests that the bias of subjective judgements is likely to vary somewhat unpredictably among people, depending on their stake in the outcome. This will make subjective predictions more uncertain and less transparent than those based on models. (C) 2004 Elsevier SAS. All rights reserved.

STATIC IMAGES WITH DIFFERENT INDUCED INTENSITIES OF HUMAN BODY MOVEMENTS AFFECT SUBJECTIVE TIME

Modulation of subjective time was examined using static images eliciting perceptions of different intensities of body movement. Undergraduate students were exposed to photographs of dancer sculptures in different dance positions for 36 sec. and asked to estimate the exposure duration. Lower movement intensities were related to shorter estimated durations. Mean durations for images of unmoving dancers were underestimated and for dancers taking a ballet step were overestimated. Temporal estimations were also related to the order of presentation of the stimuli, which suggested that subjective time estimations were influenced by the experimental context. Subjective time is related not only to the visual perception of moving images, but also of elicited perceptions of movement in static images, suggesting an embodiment effect on subjective time estimation.

Tonal Modulation and Subjective Time

This work investigated listeners` sense of the temporal expression of tonal modulation. One experiment described the effects on retrospective reproductions of sudden and gradual modulations to close and distant keys. The results showed that modulations elicit time underestimations as an inverse function of interkey distances, with a major impact for sudden modulations. A proposed vectorial model - ""Expected Development Fraction"" (EDF) - describes the development of expectations when an interkey distance is traversed during a certain time interval. This expected development is longer than the perceived duration, leading to underestimation of the time.

The tannin-degrading species Streptococcus gallolyticus and Streptococcus caprinus are subjective synonyms

The tannin-degrading species Streptococcus gallolyticus and Streptococcus caprinus have been shown to be subjective synonyms on the basis of their levels of 16S rRNA sequence similarity (98.3%) and DNA-DNA homology (>70%) and the phenotypes of their type strains. S. gallolyticus has nomenclatural priority according to Rule 24b(2) of the International Code of Nomenclature of Bacteria.

Subjective memory impairment in a rural population with low education in the Amazon rainforest: an exploratory study

Background: The high prevalence of subjective memory impairment (SMI) in the elderly living in developed countries may be partly dependent on greater demand placed on them by new technologies. As part of a comprehensive study on cognitive impairment in a population living in the Amazon rainforest, we evaluated the prevalence of SMI and investigated the features associated with it. Methods: We evaluated 163 subjects (82 females) with a mean age of 62.3 years (50-94 years), 110 of whom were illiterate, using the answer to a single question ""Do you have memory problems?"" to classify them into groups with or without SMI. The assessment involved application of the Mini-mental State Examination (MMSE), delayed recall from the Brief Cognitive Battery designed for the evaluation of low educated and illiterate individuals, the Patient Questionnaire (PQ) of the Primary Care Evaluation of Mental Disorders (PRIME-MD), and the Happiness Analogical Scale. Results: A very high prevalence of SMI (70%) was observed, exceeding rates reported by similar studies conducted in developed countries. SMI was more frequent in women, whereas age and education did not impact on prevalence. Subjects with SMI had significantly more somatic and psychiatric symptoms on the PQ, as well as lower means on the MMSE, but not on the delayed recall test. Multiple logistic regressions showed that the most important factor associated with the presence of SMI was a high score on the PQ (OR: 3.84, p = 0.011). Conclusion: Psychological and somatic symptoms may be the principal cause of SMI in this population.

Comparison of Quantitative Imaging Devices and Subjective Optic Nerve Head Assessment by General Ophthalmologists to Differentiate Normal From Glaucomatous Eyes

Purpose: To compare the ability of Subjective assessment of optic nerve head (ONH) and retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) by general ophthalmologists and by a glaucoma expert with objective measurements by optical coherence tomography (Stratus OCT, Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc), confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope (HRT III; Heidelberg Engineering, Heidelberg. Germany), and scanning laser polarimetry (GDx enhanced corneal compensation; Carl Zeiss Meditec Inc, Dublin, CA) in discriminating glaucomatous and normal eyes. Methods: Sixty-one glaucomatous and 57 normal eyes or 118 subjects Were included in the study. Three independent general ophthalmologists and I glaucoma expert evaluated ONH stereo-photographs. Receiver operating characteristic curves were constructed for each imaging technique and sensitivity at fixed specificity was estimated. Comparisons or areas under these curves (aROCs) and agreement (k) were determined between stereophoto grading and best parameter from each technique. Results: Best parameter from each technique showed larger aROC (Stratus OCT RNFL 0.92; Stratus OCT ONH vertical integrated area = 0.86; Stratus OCT macular thickness = 0.82; GDx enhanced corneal compensation = 0.91, HRT3 global cup-to-disc ratio = 0.83; HRT3 glaucoma probability score numeric area score 0.83) compared with stereophotograph grading by general ophthalmologists (0.80) in separating glaucomatous and normal eyes. Glaucoma expert stereophoto grading provided equal or larger aROC (0.92) than best parameter of each computerized imaging device. Stereophoto evaluated by a glaucoma expert showed better agreement with best parameter of each quantitative imaging technique in classifying eyes either as glaucomatous or normal compared with stereophoto grading by general ophthalmologists, The combination Of Subjective assessment of the optic disc by general ophthalmologists with RNFL objective parameters improved identification of glaucoma patients in a larger proportion than the combination of these objective parameters with Subjective assessment of the optic disc by a glaucoma expert (29.5% vs. 19.7%, respectively). Conclusions: Diagnostic ability of all imaging techniques showed better performance than subjective assessment of the ONH by general ophthalmologists, but not by It glaucoma expert, Objective RNFL measurements may provide improvement in glaucoma detection when combined with subjective assessment of the optic disc by general ophthalmologists or by a glaucoma expert.

Translation and Cross-Cultural Adaptation of the Brazilian Version of the International Knee Documentation Committee Subjective Knee Form Validity and Reproducibility

Background: The perception of improvement by a patient has assumed a central role in functional evaluation after a variety of knee problems. One of the instruments most used in clinical research is the International Knee Documentation Committee (IKDC) Subjective Knee Form because its psychometric properties are considered to be excellent. Nonetheless, this questionnaire was originally developed for use in the English language. Therefore, to use this questionnaire in the Brazilian population, it is essential to translate and validate it. Purpose: The aim of this study was to translate the IKDC Subjective Knee Form into a Brazilian version and to test its validity and reproducibility. Study Design: Cohort study (diagnosis); Level of evidence, 2. Methods: The translation of the original IKDC Subjective Knee Form into a Brazilian version was accomplished in accordance with the American Orthopaedic Society for Sports Medicine guidelines and was tested in 32 patients with knee pathologic conditions to develop the first Brazilian version. To test validity and reproducibility, 117 patients with several knee complaints completed the Brazilian IKDC Subjective Knee Form, the Short Form 36 (SF-36), the Western Ontario and McMaster Universities Osteoarthritis Index (WOMAC), and the Lysholm score. From these patients, 85 were retested within a week to achieve reproducibility. The validation was addressed by correlating the Brazilian IKDC Subjective Knee Form to the other outcome measures. The reproducibility was tested by measuring internal consistency, test-retest reliability, and agreement. Results: The Brazilian IKDC Subjective Knee Form was highly related to the physical component summary of the SF-36, the Lysholm score, and the WOMAC, and weakly related to the mental component summary of SF-36 (r=.79, .89, .85, and .51, respectively). The internal consistency was strong, with a Cronbach a value of .928 and .935 in the test and retest assessment, respectively. The test-retest reliability proved to be excellent, with a high value of the intraclass correlation coefficient (.988), as well as the agreement, demonstrated by the low differences between the means of the test and retest, and the short limit of agreement, observed in the Altman-Bland and survival-agreement plots. Conclusion: The results of this study provide evidence that the Brazilian IKDC Subjective Knee Form has psychometric properties similar to the original version. In addition, it was a reliable evaluation instrument for patients with knee-related problems.

Comparison of HRT-3 glaucoma probability score and subjective stereophotograph assessment for prediction of progression in glaucoma

PURPOSE. To assess whether baseline Glaucoma Probability Score (GPS; HRT-3; Heidelberg Engineering, Dossenheim, Germany) results are predictive of progression in patients with suspected glaucoma. The GPS is a new feature of the confocal scanning laser ophthalmoscope that generates an operator-independent, three-dimensional model of the optic nerve head and gives a score for the probability that this model is consistent with glaucomatous damage. METHODS. The study included 223 patients with suspected glaucoma during an average follow-up of 63.3 months. Included subjects had a suspect optic disc appearance and/or elevated intraocular pressure, but normal visual fields. Conversion was defined as development of either repeatable abnormal visual fields or glaucomatous deterioration in the appearance of the optic disc during the study period. The association between baseline GPS and conversion was investigated by Cox regression models. RESULTS. Fifty-four (24.2%) eyes converted. In multivariate models, both higher values of GPS global and subjective stereophotograph assessment ( larger cup-disc ratio and glaucomatous grading) were predictive of conversion: adjusted hazard ratios (95% CI): 1.31 (1.15 - 1.50) per 0.1 higher global GPS, 1.34 (1.12 - 1.62) per 0.1 higher CDR, and 2.34 (1.22 - 4.47) for abnormal grading, respectively. No significant differences ( P > 0.05 for all comparisons) were found between the c-index values ( equivalent to area under ROC curve) for the multivariate models (0.732, 0.705, and 0.699, respectively). CONCLUSIONS. GPS values were predictive of conversion in our population of patients with suspected glaucoma. Further, they performed as well as subjective assessment of the optic disc. These results suggest that GPS could potentially replace stereophotograph as a tool for estimating the likelihood of conversion to glaucoma.

Glutamate and the neural basis of the subjective effects of ketamine

Context: Ketamine evokes psychosislike symptoms, and its primary action is to impair N-methyl-D-aspartate glutamate receptor neurotransmission, but it also induces secondary increases in glutamate release. Objectives: To identify the sites of action of ketamine in inducing symptoms and to determine the role of increased glutamate release using the glutamate release inhibitor lamotrigine. Design: Two experiments with different participants were performed using a double-blind, placebo-controlled, randomized, crossover, counterbalanced-order design. In the first experiment, the effect of intravenous ketamine hydrochloride on regional blood oxygenation level dependent (BOLD) signal and correlated symptoms was compared with intravenous saline placebo. In the second experiment, pretreatment with lamotrigine was compared with placebo to identify which effects of ketamine are mediated by increased glutamate release. Setting: Wellcome Trust Clinical Research Facility, Manchester, England. Participants: Thirty-three healthy, right-handed men were recruited by advertisements. Interventions: In experiment 1, participants were given intravenous ketamine (1-minute bolus of 0.26 mg/ kg, followed by a maintenance infusion of 0.25 mg/ kg/ h for the remainder of the session) or placebo (0.9% saline solution). In experiment 2, participants were pretreated with 300 mg of lamotrigine or placebo and then were given the same doses of ketamine as in experiment 1. Main Outcome Measures: Regional BOLD signal changes during ketamine or placebo infusion and Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale and Clinician- Administered Dissociative States Scale scores. Results: Ketamine induced a rapid, focal, and unexpected decrease in ventromedial frontal cortex, including orbitofrontal cortex and subgenual cingulate, which strongly predicted its dissociative effects and increased activity in mid- posterior cingulate, thalamus, and temporal cortical regions (r= 0.90). Activations correlated with Brief Psychiatric Rating Scale psychosis scores. Lamotrigine pretreatment prevented many of the BOLD signal changes and the symptoms. Conclusions: These 2 changes may underpin 2 fundamental processes of psychosis: abnormal perceptual experiences and impaired cognitive- emotional evaluation of their significance. The results are compatible with the theory that the neural and subjective effects of ketamine involve increased glutamate release.