New Optimization Algorithms for Structural Reliability Analysis

Solution of structural reliability problems by the First Order method require optimization algorithms to find the smallest distance between a limit state function and the origin of standard Gaussian space. The Hassofer-Lind-Rackwitz-Fiessler (HLRF) algorithm, developed specifically for this purpose, has been shown to be efficient but not robust, as it fails to converge for a significant number of problems. On the other hand, recent developments in general (augmented Lagrangian) optimization techniques have not been tested in aplication to structural reliability problems. In the present article, three new optimization algorithms for structural reliability analysis are presented. One algorithm is based on the HLRF, but uses a new differentiable merit function with Wolfe conditions to select step length in linear search. It is shown in the article that, under certain assumptions, the proposed algorithm generates a sequence that converges to the local minimizer of the problem. Two new augmented Lagrangian methods are also presented, which use quadratic penalties to solve nonlinear problems with equality constraints. Performance and robustness of the new algorithms is compared to the classic augmented Lagrangian method, to HLRF and to the improved HLRF (iHLRF) algorithms, in the solution of 25 benchmark problems from the literature. The new proposed HLRF algorithm is shown to be more robust than HLRF or iHLRF, and as efficient as the iHLRF algorithm. The two augmented Lagrangian methods proposed herein are shown to be more robust and more efficient than the classical augmented Lagrangian method.

Coupled reliability and boundary element model for probabilistic fatigue life assessment in mixed mode crack propagation

Fatigue and crack propagation are phenomena affected by high uncertainties, where deterministic methods fail to predict accurately the structural life. The present work aims at coupling reliability analysis with boundary element method. The latter has been recognized as an accurate and efficient numerical technique to deal with mixed mode propagation, which is very interesting for reliability analysis. The coupled procedure allows us to consider uncertainties during the crack growth process. In addition, it computes the probability of fatigue failure for complex structural geometry and loading. Two coupling procedures are considered: direct coupling of reliability and mechanical solvers and indirect coupling by the response surface method. Numerical applications show the performance of the proposed models in lifetime assessment under uncertainties, where the direct method has shown faster convergence than response surface method. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Uncertainty propagation in inverse reliability-based design of composite structures

An approach for the analysis of uncertainty propagation in reliability-based design optimization of composite laminate structures is presented. Using the Uniform Design Method (UDM), a set of design points is generated over a domain centered on the mean reference values of the random variables. A methodology based on inverse optimal design of composite structures to achieve a specified reliability level is proposed, and the corresponding maximum load is outlined as a function of ply angle. Using the generated UDM design points as input/output patterns, an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) is developed based on an evolutionary learning process. Then, a Monte Carlo simulation using ANN development is performed to simulate the behavior of the critical Tsai number, structural reliability index, and their relative sensitivities as a function of the ply angle of laminates. The results are generated for uniformly distributed random variables on a domain centered on mean values. The statistical analysis of the results enables the study of the variability of the reliability index and its sensitivity relative to the ply angle. Numerical examples showing the utility of the approach for robust design of angle-ply laminates are presented.

In situ measured cross section geometry of old timber structures and its influence on structural safety

Old timber structures may show significant variation in the cross section geometry along the same element, as a result of both construction methods and deterioration. As consequence, the definition of the geometric parameters in situ may be both time consuming and costly. This work presents the results of inspections carried out in different timber structures. Based on the obtained results, different simplified geometric models are proposed in order to efficiently model the geometry variations found. Probabilistic modelling techniques are also used to define safety parameters of existing timber structures, when subjected to dead and live loads, namely self-weight and wind actions. The parameters of the models have been defined as probabilistic variables, and safety of a selected case study was assessed using the Monte Carlo simulation technique. Assuming a target reliability index, a model was defined for both the residual cross section and the time dependent deterioration evolution. As a consequence, it was possible to compute probabilities of failure and reliability indices, as well as, time evolution deterioration curves for this structure. The results obtained provide a proposal for definition of the cross section geometric parameters of existing timber structures with different levels of decay, using a simplified probabilistic geometry model and considering a remaining capacity factor for the decayed areas. This model can be used for assessing the safety of the structure at present and for predicting future performance.

Reliability analysis of a timber truss system subjected to decay

Assessing the safety of existing timber structures is of paramount importance for taking reliable decisions on repair actions and their extent. The results obtained through semi-probabilistic methods are unrealistic, as the partial safety factors present in codes are calibrated considering the uncertainty present in new structures. In order to overcome these limitations, and also to include the effects of decay in the safety analysis, probabilistic methods, based on Monte-Carlo simulation are applied here to assess the safety of existing timber structures. In particular, the impact of decay on structural safety is analyzed and discussed, using a simple structural model, similar to that used for current semi-probabilistic analysis.

An application of reliability-based robustness assessment of steel moment resisting frame structures under post-mainshock cascading events

The paper presented herein proposes a reliability-based framework for quantifying the structural robustness considering the occurrence of a major earthquake (mainshock) and subsequent cascading hazard events, such as aftershocks that are triggered by the mainshock. These events can significantly increase the probability of failure of buildings, especially for structures that are damaged during the mainshock. The application of the proposed framework is exemplified through three numerical case studies. The case studies correspond to three SAC steel moment frame buildings of 3-, 9-, and 20- stories, which were designed to pre-Northridge codes and standards. Twodimensional nonlinear finite element models of the buildings are developed using the Open System for Earthquake Engineering Simulation framework (OpenSees), using a finite-length plastic hinge beam model and a bilinear constitutive law with deterioration, and are subjected to multiple mainshock-aftershock seismic sequences. For the three buildings analyzed herein, it is shown that the structural reliability under a single seismic event can be significantly different from that under a sequence of seismic events. The reliability-based robustness indicator used shows that the structural robustness is influenced by the extent by which a structure can distribute damage.

Reliability-based design optimization strategies based on FORM: a review

In deterministic optimization, the uncertainties of the structural system (i.e. dimension, model, material, loads, etc) are not explicitly taken into account. Hence, resulting optimal solutions may lead to reduced reliability levels. The objective of reliability based design optimization (RBDO) is to optimize structures guaranteeing that a minimum level of reliability, chosen a priori by the designer, is maintained. Since reliability analysis using the First Order Reliability Method (FORM) is an optimization procedure itself, RBDO (in its classical version) is a double-loop strategy: the reliability analysis (inner loop) and the structural optimization (outer loop). The coupling of these two loops leads to very high computational costs. To reduce the computational burden of RBDO based on FORM, several authors propose decoupling the structural optimization and the reliability analysis. These procedures may be divided in two groups: (i) serial single loop methods and (ii) unilevel methods. The basic idea of serial single loop methods is to decouple the two loops and solve them sequentially, until some convergence criterion is achieved. On the other hand, uni-level methods employ different strategies to obtain a single loop of optimization to solve the RBDO problem. This paper presents a review of such RBDO strategies. A comparison of the performance (computational cost) of the main strategies is presented for several variants of two benchmark problems from the literature and for a structure modeled using the finite element method.

Reliability of buildings in service limit state for maximum horizontal displacements

Brazilian design code ABNT NBR6118:2003 - Design of Concrete Structures - Procedures - [1] proposes the use of simplified models for the consideration of non-linear material behavior in the evaluation of horizontal displacements in buildings. These models penalize stiffness of columns and beams, representing the effects of concrete cracking and avoiding costly physical non-linear analyses. The objectives of the present paper are to investigate the accuracy and uncertainty of these simplified models, as well as to evaluate the reliabilities of structures designed following ABNT NBR6118:2003[1&] in the service limit state for horizontal displacements. Model error statistics are obtained from 42 representative plane frames. The reliabilities of three typical (4, 8 and 12 floor) buildings are evaluated, using the simplified models and a rigorous, physical and geometrical non-linear analysis. Results show that the 70/70 (column/beam stiffness reduction) model is more accurate and less conservative than the 80/40 model. Results also show that ABNT NBR6118:2003 [1] design criteria for horizontal displacement limit states (masonry damage according to ACI 435.3R-68(1984) [10]) are conservative, and result in reliability indexes which are larger than those recommended in EUROCODE [2] for irreversible service limit states.

Reliability of tunnel liners

The possibility of application of structural reliability theory to the computation of the safety margins of excavated tunnels is presented. After a brief description of the existing procedures the limitations of the safety coefficients such as they usually defined, the proposed limit states are precised as well as the random variables and the applied methodology. Also presented are simple examples, some of them based in actual cases, and to end, some conclusions are established the most important one being the probability of using the method to solve the inverse problem of identification.

Reliability of tunnel liners

The possibility of application of structural reliability theory to the computation of the safety margins of excavated tunnels is presented. After a brief description of the existing procedures and the limitations of the safety coefficients such as they are usually defined, the proposed limit states are precised as well as the random variables and the applied methodology. Also presented are simple examples, some of them based in actual cases, and to end, some conclusions are established the most important one being the probability of using the method to solve the inverse problem of identification.

A framework for reliability assessment of ship hull damage under ship bow impact

Peer reviewed

A framework for reliability assessment of ship hull damage under ship bow impact

Peer reviewed

A framework for reliability assessment of ship hull damage under ship bow impact

Peer reviewed

Risk optimization of a steel frame communications tower subject to tornado winds

The structural engineering community in Brazil faces new challenges with the recent occurrence of high intensity tornados. Satellite surveillance data shows that the area covering the south-east of Brazil, Uruguay and some of Argentina is one of the world most tornado-prone areas, second only to the infamous tornado alley in central United States. The design of structures subject to tornado winds is a typical example of decision making in the presence of uncertainty. Structural design involves finding a good balance between the competing goals of safety and economy. This paper presents a methodology to find the optimum balance between these goals in the presence of uncertainty. In this paper, reliability-based risk optimization is used to find the optimal safety coefficient that minimizes the total expected cost of a steel frame communications tower, subject to extreme storm and tornado wind loads. The technique is not new, but it is applied to a practical problem of increasing interest to Brazilian structural engineers. The problem is formulated in the partial safety factor format used in current design codes, with all additional partial factor introduced to serve as optimization variable. The expected cost of failure (or risk) is defined as the product of a. limit state exceedance probability by a limit state exceedance cost. These costs include costs of repairing, rebuilding, and paying compensation for injury and loss of life. The total expected failure cost is the sum of individual expected costs over all failure modes. The steel frame communications, tower subject of this study has become very common in Brazil due to increasing mobile phone coverage. The study shows that optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the cost (or consequences) of failure. Since failure consequences depend oil actual tower location, it turn,,; out that different optimum designs should be used in different locations. Failure consequences are also different for the different parties involved in the design, construction and operation of the tower. Hence, it is important that risk is well understood by the parties involved, so that proper contracts call be made. The investigation shows that when non-structural terms dominate design costs (e.g, in residential or office buildings) it is not too costly to over-design; this observation is in agreement with the observed practice for non-optimized structural systems. In this situation, is much easier to loose money by under-design. When by under-design. When structural material cost is a significant part of design cost (e.g. concrete dam or bridge), one is likely to lose significantmoney by over-design. In this situation, a cost-risk-benefit optimization analysis is highly recommended. Finally, the study also shows that under time-varying loads like tornados, the optimum reliability is strongly dependent on the selected design life.

Metodologia para análise da confiabilidade estrutural de escavações em rocha.

A methodology for rock-excavation structural-reliability analysis that uses Distinct Element Method numerical models is presented. The methodology solves the problem of the conventional numerical models that supply only punctual results and use fixed input parameters, without considering its statistical errors. The analysis of rock-excavation stability must consider uncertainties from geological variability, from uncertainty in the choice of mechanical behaviour hypothesis, and from uncertainties in parameters adopted in numerical model construction. These uncertainties can be analyzed in simple deterministic models, but a new methodology was developed for numerical models with results of several natures. The methodology is based on Monte Carlo simulations and uses principles of Paraconsistent Logic. It will be presented in the analysis of a final slope of a large-dimensioned surface mine.