Identifying the critical parameters of a cyanobacterial growth and movement model by using generalised sensitivity analysis

Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling of cyanobacteria in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes and rivers. A new deterministic-mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including, light, nutrients and temperature. A technique called generalised sensitivity analysis was applied to the model to identify the critical parameter uncertainties in the model and investigates the interaction between the chosen parameters of the model. The result of the analysis suggested that 8 out of 12 parameters were significant in obtaining the observed cyanobacterial behaviour in a simulation. It was found that there was a high degree of correlation between the half-saturation rate constants used in the model.

Sensitivity analysis of a cyanobacterial growth and movement model under two different flow regimes

Bloom-forming and toxin-producing cyanobacteria remain a persistent nuisance across the world. Modelling cyanobacterial behaviour in freshwaters is an important tool for understanding their population dynamics and predicting the location and timing of the bloom events in lakes, reservoirs and rivers. A new deterministic–mathematical model was developed, which simulates the growth and movement of cyanobacterial blooms in river systems. The model focuses on the mathematical description of the bloom formation, vertical migration and lateral transport of colonies within river environments by taking into account the major factors that affect the cyanobacterial bloom formation in rivers including light, nutrients and temperature. A parameter sensitivity analysis using a one-at-a-time approach was carried out. There were two objectives of the sensitivity analysis presented in this paper: to identify the key parameters controlling the growth and movement patterns of cyanobacteria and to provide a means for model validation. The result of the analysis suggested that maximum growth rate and day length period were the most significant parameters in determining the population growth and colony depth, respectively.

An animal movement model incorporating home range and habitat selection

Wildlife biologists are often interested in how an animal uses space and the habitat resources within that space. We propose a single model that estimates an animal’s home range and habitat selection parameters within that range while accounting for the inherent autocorrelation in frequently sampled telemetry data. The model is applied to brown bear telemetry data in southeast Alaska.

Using data from an encounter sampler to model fish dispersal

A method to estimate speed of free-ranging fishes using a passive sampling device is described and illustrated with data from the Everglades, U.S.A. Catch per unit effort (CPUE) from minnow traps embedded in drift fences was treated as an encounter rate and used to estimate speed, when combined with an independent estimate of density obtained by use of throw traps that enclose 1 m2 of marsh habitat. Underwater video was used to evaluate capture efficiency and species-specific bias of minnow traps and two sampling studies were used to estimate trap saturation and diel-movement patterns; these results were used to optimize sampling and derive correction factors to adjust species-specific encounter rates for bias and capture efficiency. Sailfin mollies Poecilia latipinna displayed a high frequency of escape from traps, whereas eastern mosquitofish Gambusia holbrooki were most likely to avoid a trap once they encountered it; dollar sunfish Lepomis marginatus were least likely to avoid the trap once they encountered it or to escape once they were captured. Length of sampling and time of day affected CPUE; fishes generally had a very low retention rate over a 24 h sample time and only the Everglades pygmy sunfish Elassoma evergladei were commonly captured at night. Dispersal speed of fishes in the Florida Everglades, U.S.A., was shown to vary seasonally and among species, ranging from 0· 05 to 0· 15 m s−1 for small poeciliids and fundulids to 0· 1 to 1· 8 m s−1 for L. marginatus. Speed was generally highest late in the wet season and lowest in the dry season, possibly tied to dispersal behaviours linked to finding and remaining in dry-season refuges. These speed estimates can be used to estimate the diffusive movement rate, which is commonly employed in spatial ecological models.

Effects of Externally Applied, Cyclical, Low Magnitude Forces on Orthodontic Tooth Movement in Rats

Orthodontic tooth movement requires external orthodontic forces to be converted to cellular signals that result in the coordinated removal of bone on one side of the tooth (compression side) by osteoclasts, and the formation of new bone by osteoblasts on the other side (tension side). The length of orthodontic treatment can take several years, leading to problems of caries, periodontal disease, root resorption, and patient dissatisfaction. It appears that the velocity of tooth movement is largely dependent on the rate of alveolar bone remodeling. Pharmacological approaches to increase the rate of tooth movement are limited due to patient discomfort, severe root resorption, and drug-induced side effects. Recently, externally applied, cyclical, low magnitude forces (CLMF) have been shown to cause an increase in the bone mineral density of long bones, and in the growth of craniofacial structures in a variety of animal models. In addition, CLMF is well tolerated by the patient and produces no known adverse effects. However, its application in orthodontic tooth movement has not been specifically determined. Since factors that increase alveolar bone remodeling enhance the rate of orthodontic tooth movement, we hypothesized that externally applied, cyclical, low magnitude forces (CLMF) will increase the rate of orthodontic tooth movement. In order to test this hypothesis we used an in vivo rat orthodontic tooth movement model. Our specific aims were: Specific Aim 1: To develop an in vivo rat model for tooth movement. We developed a tooth movement model based upon two established rodent models (Ren and Yoshimatsu et al, See Figure 1.). The amount of variation of tooth movement in rats exposed to 25-60 g of mesial force activated viii from the first molar to the incisor for 4 weeks was calculated. Specific Aim 2: To determine the frequency dose response of externally applied, cyclical, low magnitude forces (CLMF) for maximal tooth movement and osteoclast numbers. Our working hypothesis for this aim was that the amount of tooth movement would be dose dependent on the frequency of application of the CLMF. In order to test this working hypothesis, we varied the frequency of the CLMF from 30, 60, 100, and 200 Hz, 0.4N, two times per week, for 10 minutes for 4 weeks, and measured the amount of tooth movement. We also looked at the number of osteoclasts for the different frequencies; we hypothesized an increase in osteoclasts for the dose respnse of different frequencies. Specific Aim 3: To determine the effects of externally applied, cyclical, low magnitude forces (CLMF) on PDL proliferation. Our working hypothesis for this aim was that PDL proliferation would increase with CLMF. In order to test this hypothesis we compared CLMF (30 Hz, 0.4N, two times per week, for 10 minutes for 4 weeks) performed on the left side (experimental side), to the non-CLMF side, on the right (control side). This was an experimental study with 24 rats in total. The experimental group contained fifteen (15) rats in total, and they all received a spring plus a different frequency of CLMF. Three (3) received a spring and CLMF at 30 Hz, 0.4N for 10 minutes. Six (6) received a spring and CLMF at 60 Hz, 0.4N for 10 minutes. Three (3) received a spring and CLMF at 100 Hz, 0.4N for 10 minutes. Three (3) received a spring and CLMF at 200 Hz, 0.4N for 10 minutes. The control group contained six (6) rats, and received only a spring. An additional ix three (3) rats received CLMF (30 Hz, 0.4N, two times per week, for 10 minutes for 4 weeks) only, with no spring, and were used only for histological purposes. Rats were subjected to the application of orthodontic force from their maxillary left first molar to their left central incisor. In addition some of the rats received externally applied, cyclical, low magnitude force (CLMF) on their maxillary left first molar. micro-CT was used to measure the amount of orthodontic tooth movement. The distance between the maxillary first and second molars, at the most mesial point of the second molar and the most distal point of the first molar (1M-2M distance) were used to evaluate the distance of tooth movement. Immunohistochemistry was performed with TRAP staining and BrdU quantification. Externally applied, cyclical, low magnitude forces (CLMF) do appear to have an effect on the rate, while not significant, of orthodontic tooth movement in rats. It appears that lower CLMF decreases the rate of tooth movement, while higher CLMF increases the rate of tooth movement. Future studies with larger sample sizes are needed to clarify this issue. CLMF does not appear to affect the proliferation in PDL cells, and has no effect on the number of osteoclasts.

Parameterization of the atmospheric boundary layer for offshore wind resource assessment with a limited length-scale k-ε model

The structure of the atmospheric boundary layer (ABL) is modelled with the limited- length-scale k-ε model of Apsley and Castro. Contrary to the standard k-ε model, the limited-length-scale k-ε model imposes a maximum mixing length which is derived from the boundary layer height, for neutral and unstable atmospheric situations, or by Monin-Obukhov length when the atmosphere is stably stratified. The model is first verified reproducing the famous Leipzig wind profile. Then the performance of the model is tested with measurements from FINO-1 platform using sonic anemometers to derive the appropriate maximum mixing length.

New evidence for the zoom lens model using the RSVP technique

A main prediction from the zoom lens model for visual attention is that performance is an inverse function of the size of the attended area. The "attention shift paradigm" developed by Sperling and Reeves (1980) was adapted here to study predictions from the zoom lens model. In two experiments two lists of items were simultaneously presented using the rapid serial visual presentation technique. Subjects were to report the first item he/she was able to identify in the series that did not include the target (the letter T) after he/she saw the target. In one condition, subjects knew in which list the target would appear, in another condition, they did not have this knowledge, having to attend to both positions in order to detect the target. The zoom lens model predicts an interaction between this variable and the distance separating the two positions where the lists are presented. In both experiments, this interaction was observed. The results are also discussed as a solution to the apparently contradictory results with regard to the analog movement model.

GLOBAL WELL-POSEDNESS AND NON-LINEAR STABILITY OF PERIODIC TRAVELING WAVES FOR A SCHRODINGER-BENJAMIN-ONO SYSTEM

The objective of this paper is two-fold: firstly, we develop a local and global (in time) well-posedness theory for a system describing the motion of two fluids with different densities under capillary-gravity waves in a deep water flow (namely, a Schrodinger-Benjamin-Ono system) for low-regularity initial data in both periodic and continuous cases; secondly, a family of new periodic traveling waves for the Schrodinger-Benjamin-Ono system is given: by fixing a minimal period we obtain, via the implicit function theorem, a smooth branch of periodic solutions bifurcating a Jacobian elliptic function called dnoidal, and, moreover, we prove that all these periodic traveling waves are nonlinearly stable by perturbations with the same wavelength.

POSITIVITY PROPERTIES OF THE FOURIER TRANSFORM AND THE STABILITY OF PERIODIC TRAVELLING-WAVE SOLUTIONS

In this paper we establish a method to obtain the stability of periodic travelling-wave solutions for equations of Korteweg-de Vries-type u(t) + u(p)u(x) - Mu(x) = 0, with M being a general pseudodifferential operator and where p >= 1 is an integer. Our approach uses the theory of totally positive operators, the Poisson summation theorem, and the theory of Jacobi elliptic functions. In particular we obtain the stability of a family of periodic travelling waves solutions for the Benjamin Ono equation. The present technique gives a new way to obtain the existence and stability of cnoidal and dnoidal waves solutions associated with the Korteweg-de Vries and modified Korteweg-de Vries equations, respectively. The theory has prospects for the study of periodic travelling-wave solutions of other partial differential equations.

An evaluation of new parsimony-based versus parametric inference methods in biogeography: a case study using the globally distributed plant family Sapindaceae

Aim  Recently developed parametric methods in historical biogeography allow researchers to integrate temporal and palaeogeographical information into the reconstruction of biogeographical scenarios, thus overcoming a known bias of parsimony-based approaches. Here, we compare a parametric method, dispersal-extinction-cladogenesis (DEC), against a parsimony-based method, dispersal-vicariance analysis (DIVA), which does not incorporate branch lengths but accounts for phylogenetic uncertainty through a Bayesian empirical approach (Bayes-DIVA). We analyse the benefits and limitations of each method using the cosmopolitan plant family Sapindaceae as a case study.Location  World-wide.Methods  Phylogenetic relationships were estimated by Bayesian inference on a large dataset representing generic diversity within Sapindaceae. Lineage divergence times were estimated by penalized likelihood over a sample of trees from the posterior distribution of the phylogeny to account for dating uncertainty in biogeographical reconstructions. We compared biogeographical scenarios between Bayes-DIVA and two different DEC models: one with no geological constraints and another that employed a stratified palaeogeographical model in which dispersal rates were scaled according to area connectivity across four time slices, reflecting the changing continental configuration over the last 110 million years.Results  Despite differences in the underlying biogeographical model, Bayes-DIVA and DEC inferred similar biogeographical scenarios. The main differences were: (1) in the timing of dispersal events - which in Bayes-DIVA sometimes conflicts with palaeogeographical information, and (2) in the lower frequency of terminal dispersal events inferred by DEC. Uncertainty in divergence time estimations influenced both the inference of ancestral ranges and the decisiveness with which an area can be assigned to a node.Main conclusions  By considering lineage divergence times, the DEC method gives more accurate reconstructions that are in agreement with palaeogeographical evidence. In contrast, Bayes-DIVA showed the highest decisiveness in unequivocally reconstructing ancestral ranges, probably reflecting its ability to integrate phylogenetic uncertainty. Care should be taken in defining the palaeogeographical model in DEC because of the possibility of overestimating the frequency of extinction events, or of inferring ancestral ranges that are outside the extant species ranges, owing to dispersal constraints enforced by the model. The wide-spanning spatial and temporal model proposed here could prove useful for testing large-scale biogeographical patterns in plants.

Análise da resolução do modelo de Hughes em sondagens magnetotelúricas

Na maioria dos métodos de exploração geofísica, a interpretação é feita assumindo-se um modelo da Terra uniformemente estratificado. Todos os métodos de inversão, inclusive o de dados eletromagnéticos, exigem técnica de modelamento teórico de modo a auxiliar a interpretação. Na literatura os dados são geralmente interpretados em termos de uma estrutura condutiva unidimensional; comumente a Terra é assumida ser horizontalmente uniforme de modo que a condutividade é função somente da profundidade. Neste trabalho uma técnica semi-analítica de modelagem desenvolvida por Hughes (1973) foi usada para modelar a resposta magnética de duas camadas na qual a interface separando as camadas pode ser representada por uma expansão em série de Fourier. A técnica envolve um método de perturbação para encontrar o efeito de um contorno senoidal com pequenas ondulações. Como a perturbação é de primeira ordem a solução obtida é linear, podemos então usar o princípio da superposição e combinar soluções para várias senoides de forma a obter a solução para qualquer dupla camada expandida em série de Fourier. Da comparação com a técnica de elementos finitos, as seguintes conclusões podem ser tiradas: • Para um modelo de dupla camada da Terra, as camadas separadas por uma interface cuja profundidade varia senoidalmente em uma direção, as respostas eletromagnética são muito mais fortes quando a espessura da primeira camada é da ordem do skin depth da onda eletromagnética no meio, e será tanto maior quanto maior for o contraste de condutividade entre as camadas; • Por outro lado, a resistividade aparente para este modelo não é afetada pela mudança na frequência espacial (v) do contorno; • Em caso do uso da solução geral para qualquer dupla camada na Terra cuja interface possa ser desenvolvida em série de Fourier, esta técnica produziu bons resultados quando comparado com a técnica de elementos finitos. A linerização restringe a aplicação da técnica para pequenas estruturas, apesar disso, uma grande quantidade de estruturas pode ser modelada de modo simples e com tempo computacional bastante rápido; • Quando a dimensão da primeira camada possui a mesma ordem de grandeza da estrutura, esta técnica não é recomendada, porque para algumas posições de sondagem, as curvas de resistividade aparente obtidas mostram um pequeno deslocamento quando comparadas com as curvas obtidas por elementos finitos.

Simulating Mechanisms for Dispersal, Production and Stranding of Small Forage Fish in Temporary Wetland Habitats

Movement strategies of small forage fish (<8 cm total length) between temporary and permanent wetland habitats affect their overall population growth and biomass concentrations, i.e., availability to predators. These fish are often the key energy link between primary producers and top predators, such as wading birds, which require high concentrations of stranded fish in accessible depths. Expansion and contraction of seasonal wetlands induce a sequential alternation between rapid biomass growth and concentration, creating the conditions for local stranding of small fish as they move in response to varying water levels. To better understand how landscape topography, hydrology, and fish behavior interact to create high densities of stranded fish, we first simulated population dynamics of small fish, within a dynamic food web, with different traits for movement strategy and growth rate, across an artificial, spatially explicit, heterogeneous, two-dimensional marsh slough landscape, using hydrologic variability as the driver for movement. Model output showed that fish with the highest tendency to invade newly flooded marsh areas built up the largest populations over long time periods with stable hydrologic patterns. A higher probability to become stranded had negative effects on long-term population size, and offset the contribution of that species to stranded biomass. The model was next applied to the topography of a 10 km × 10 km area of Everglades landscape. The details of the topography were highly important in channeling fish movements and creating spatiotemporal patterns of fish movement and stranding. This output provides data that can be compared in the future with observed locations of fish biomass concentrations, or such surrogates as phosphorus ‘hotspots’ in the marsh.

Integrating functional connectivity and climate change in the design of protected area networks

Le rapide déclin actuel de la biodiversité est inquiétant et les activités humaines en sont la cause directe. De nombreuses aires protégées ont été mises en place pour contrer cette perte de biodiversité. Afin de maximiser leur efficacité, l’amélioration de la connectivité fonctionnelle entre elles est requise. Les changements climatiques perturbent actuellement les conditions environnementales de façon globale. C’est une menace pour la biodiversité qui n’a pas souvent été intégrée lors de la mise en place des aires protégées, jusqu’à récemment. Le mouvement des espèces, et donc la connectivité fonctionnelle du paysage, est impacté par les changements climatiques et des études ont montré qu’améliorer la connectivité fonctionnelle entre les aires protégées aiderait les espèces à faire face aux impacts des changements climatiques. Ma thèse présente une méthode pour concevoir des réseaux d’aires protégées tout en tenant compte des changements climatiques et de la connectivité fonctionnelle. Mon aire d’étude est la région de la Gaspésie au Québec (Canada). La population en voie de disparition de caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique (Rangifer tarandus caribou) a été utilisée comme espèce focale pour définir la connectivité fonctionnelle. Cette petite population subit un déclin continu dû à la prédation et la modification de son habitat, et les changements climatiques pourraient devenir une menace supplémentaire. J’ai d’abord construit un modèle individu-centré spatialement explicite pour expliquer et simuler le mouvement du caribou. J’ai utilisé les données VHF éparses de la population de caribou et une stratégie de modélisation patron-orienté pour paramétrer et sélectionner la meilleure hypothèse de mouvement. Mon meilleur modèle a reproduit la plupart des patrons de mouvement définis avec les données observées. Ce modèle fournit une meilleure compréhension des moteurs du mouvement du caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique, ainsi qu’une estimation spatiale de son utilisation du paysage dans la région. J’ai conclu que les données éparses étaient suffisantes pour ajuster un modèle individu-centré lorsqu’utilisé avec une modélisation patron-orienté. Ensuite, j’ai estimé l’impact des changements climatiques et de différentes actions de conservation sur le potentiel de mouvement du caribou. J’ai utilisé le modèle individu-centré pour simuler le mouvement du caribou dans des paysages hypothétiques représentant différents scénarios de changements climatiques et d’actions de conservation. Les actions de conservation représentaient la mise en place de nouvelles aires protégées en Gaspésie, comme définies par le scénario proposé par le gouvernement du Québec, ainsi que la restauration de routes secondaires à l’intérieur des aires protégées. Les impacts des changements climatiques sur la végétation, comme définis dans mes scénarios, ont réduit le potentiel de mouvement du caribou. La restauration des routes était capable d’atténuer ces effets négatifs, contrairement à la mise en place des nouvelles aires protégées. Enfin, j’ai présenté une méthode pour concevoir des réseaux d’aires protégées efficaces et j’ai proposé des nouvelles aires protégées à mettre en place en Gaspésie afin de protéger la biodiversité sur le long terme. J’ai créé de nombreux scénarios de réseaux d’aires protégées en étendant le réseau actuel pour protéger 12% du territoire. J’ai calculé la représentativité écologique et deux mesures de connectivité fonctionnelle sur le long terme pour chaque réseau. Les mesures de connectivité fonctionnelle représentaient l’accès général aux aires protégées pour le caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique ainsi que son potentiel de mouvement à l’intérieur. J’ai utilisé les estimations de potentiel de mouvement pour la période de temps actuelle ainsi que pour le futur sous différents scénarios de changements climatiques pour représenter la connectivité fonctionnelle sur le long terme. Le réseau d’aires protégées que j’ai proposé était le scénario qui maximisait le compromis entre les trois caractéristiques de réseau calculées. Dans cette thèse, j’ai expliqué et prédit le mouvement du caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique sous différentes conditions environnementales, notamment des paysages impactés par les changements climatiques. Ces résultats m’ont aidée à définir un réseau d’aires protégées à mettre en place en Gaspésie pour protéger le caribou au cours du temps. Je crois que cette thèse apporte de nouvelles connaissances sur le comportement de mouvement du caribou de la Gaspésie-Atlantique, ainsi que sur les actions de conservation qui peuvent être prises en Gaspésie afin d’améliorer la protection du caribou et de celle d’autres espèces. Je crois que la méthode présentée peut être applicable à d’autres écosystèmes aux caractéristiques et besoins similaires.

Demographic model of the Swiss cattle population for the years 2009-2011 stratified by gender, age and production type

Demographic composition and dynamics of animal and human populations are important determinants for the transmission dynamics of infectious disease and for the effect of infectious disease or environmental disasters on productivity. In many circumstances, demographic data are not available or of poor quality. Since 1999 Switzerland has been recording cattle movements, births, deaths and slaughter in an animal movement database (AMD). The data present in the AMD offers the opportunity for analysing and understanding the dynamic of the Swiss cattle population. A dynamic population model can serve as a building block for future disease transmission models and help policy makers in developing strategies regarding animal health, animal welfare, livestock management and productivity. The Swiss cattle population was therefore modelled using a system of ordinary differential equations. The model was stratified by production type (dairy or beef), age and gender (male and female calves: 0-1 year, heifers and young bulls: 1-2 years, cows and bulls: older than 2 years). The simulation of the Swiss cattle population reflects the observed pattern accurately. Parameters were optimized on the basis of the goodness-of-fit (using the Powell algorithm). The fitted rates were compared with calculated rates from the AMD and differed only marginally. This gives confidence in the fitted rates of parameters that are not directly deductible from the AMD (e.g. the proportion of calves that are moved from the dairy system to fattening plants).

Effect of diabetes on orthodontic tooth movement in a mouse model

Orthodontic tooth movement is achieved by the remodeling of alveolar bone in response to mechanical loading. Type 1 diabetes results in bone remodeling, suggesting that this disease might affect orthodontic tooth movement. The present study investigated the effects of the diabetic state on orthodontic tooth movement. An orthodontic appliance was placed in normoglycemic (NG), streptozotocin-induced diabetes (DB), and insulin-treated DB (IT) C57BL6/J mice. Histomorphometric analysis and quantitative PCR of periodontium were performed. The DB mice exhibited greater orthodontic tooth movement and had a higher number of tartrate-resistant acid phosphate (TRAP) -positive osteoclasts than NG mice. This was associated with increased expression of factors involved in osteoclast activity and recruitment (Rankl, Csf1, Ccl2, Ccl5, and Tnfa) in DB mice. The expression of osteoblastic markers (Runx2, Ocn, Col1, and Alp) was decreased in DB mice. Reversal of the diabetic state by insulin treatment resulted in morphological findings similar to those of NG mice. These results suggest that the diabetic state up-regulates osteoclast migration and activity and down-regulates osteoblast differentiation, resulting in greater orthodontic tooth movement.