Storm evolution characterization for analysing stone armour damage progression

Storm evolution is fundamental for analysing the damage progression of the different failure modes and establishing suitable protocols for maintaining and optimally sizing structures. However, this aspect has hardly been studied and practically the whole of the studies dealing with the subject adopt the Equivalent triangle storm. As against this approach, two new ones are proposed. The first is the Equivalent Triangle Magnitude Storm model (ETMS), whose base, the triangular storm duration, D, is established such that its magnitude (area describing the storm history above the reference threshold level which sets the storm condition),HT, equals the real storm magnitude. The other is the Equivalent Triangle Number of Waves Storm (ETNWS), where the base is referred in terms of the real storm's number of waves,Nz. Three approaches are used for estimating the mean period, Tm, associated to each of the sea states defining the storm evolution, which is necessary to determine the full energy flux withstood by the structure in the course of the extreme event. Two are based on the Jonswap spectrum representativity and the other uses the bivariate Gumbel copula (Hs, Tm), resulting from adjusting the storm peaks. The representativity of the approaches proposed and those defined in specialised literature are analysed by comparing the main armour layer's progressive loss of hydraulic stability caused by real storms and that relating to theoretical ones. An empirical maximum energy flux model is used for this purpose. The agreement between the empirical and theoretical results demonstrates that the representativity of the different approaches depends on the storm characteristics and point towards a need to investigate other geometrical shapes to characterise the storm evolution associated with sea states heavily influenced by swell wave components.

Storm characterization for analyzing stone armour damage progression

Storm evolution is fundamental for analysing the damage progression of the different failure modes and establishing suitable protocols for maintaining and optimally sizing structures. However, this aspect has hardly been studied and practically the whole of the studies dealing with the subject adopt the Equivalent triangle storm. As against this approach, two new ones are proposed. The first is the Equivalent Triangle Magnitude Storm model (ETMS), whose base, the triangular storm duration, D, is established such that its magnitude (area describing the storm history above the reference threshold level which sets the storm condition),HT, equals the real storm magnitude. The other is the Equivalent Triangle Number of Waves Storm (ETNWS), where the base is referred in terms of the real storm's number of waves,Nz. Three approaches are used for estimating the mean period, Tm, associated to each of the sea states defining the storm evolution, which is necessary to determine the full energy flux withstood by the structure in the course of the extreme event. Two are based on the Jonswap spectrum representativity and the other uses the bivariate Gumbel copula (Hs, Tm), resulting from adjusting the storm peaks. The representativity of the approaches proposed and those defined in specialised literature are analysed by comparing the main armour layer's progressive loss of hydraulic stability caused by real storms and that relating to theoretical ones. An empirical maximum energy flux model is used for this purpose. The agreement between the empirical and theoretical results demonstrates that the representativity of the different approaches depends on the storm characteristics and point towards a need to investigate other geometrical shapes to characterise the storm evolution associated with sea states heavily influenced by swell wave components.

CLIGEN降水要素在黄土塬区的适应性评估

CLIGEN是目前较全面产生降水要素(降水量、历时、达到最大降水强度的时间与降水总历时的比率、最大降水强度与平均降水强度的比率)的天气发生器,其生成降水要素的质量直接影响水文和农业响应模型的输出结果。利用黄土高原长武1957—2001年的日气象观测数据、王东沟流域1988—2001年的降水要素数据和CLIGEN生成的100年日气象数据,对CLIGEN模型产生日、月、年降水量的均值和方差、概率分布、降水极端值和降水历时、强度进行评估。结果表明:CLIGEN对日、月和年降水量均值的模拟效果较好,相对误差都不大于1.0%;对标准差的模拟结果偏低,相对误差的绝对值小于6.6%;没有模拟出日降水量的概率分布,但是较好地模拟出了月和年降水量的概率分布;对日、月和年最大降水量的模拟误差较大,表明CLIGEN对极值的模拟精度有待提高。CLIGEN很好地模拟出连续降水的频率,但是连续干旱天数在20 d以内的累积频率的平均相对误差为8.9%;CLIGEN产生的最大降水强度与平均降水强度的比率高于实测数据;相对于实测数据,CLIGEN模拟的降水历时和降水量具有相同的趋势,对小降水量或短历时的模拟结果偏高,对大降水量或长历时的模拟结...

Distribution Of Hydrological Losses For Varying Rainfall And Antecedent Wetness Conditions

Hydrological loss is a vital component in many hydrological models, which are usedin forecasting floods and evaluating water resources for both surface and subsurface flows. Due to the complex and random nature of the rainfall runoff process, hydrological losses are not yet fully understood. Consequently, practitioners often use representative values of the losses for design applications such as rainfall-runoff modelling which has led to inaccurate quantification of water quantities in the resulting applications. The existing hydrological loss models must be revisited and modellers should be encouraged to utilise other available data sets. This study is based on three unregulated catchments situated in Mt. Lofty Ranges of South Australia (SA). The paper focuses on conceptual models for: initial loss (IL), continuing loss (CL) and proportional loss (PL) with rainfall characteristics (total rainfall (TR) and storm duration (D)), and antecedent wetness (AW) conditions. The paper introduces two methods that can be implemented to estimate IL as a function of TR, D and AW. The IL distribution patterns and parameters for the study catchments are determined using multivariate analysis and descriptive statistics. The possibility of generalising the methods and the limitations of this are also discussed. This study will yield improvements to existing loss models and will encourage practitioners to utilise multiple data sets to estimate losses, instead of using hypothetical or representative values to generalise real situations.

Preliminary Results from the Chemical Records of an 80.4 M Ice Core Recovered from East Rongbuk Glacier, Qomolangma (Mount Everest), Himalaya

High-resolution chemical records from an 80.4 m ice core from the central Himalaya demonstrate climatic and environmental changes since 1844. The chronological net accumulation series shows a sharp decrease from the mid-1950s, which is coincident with the widely observed glacier retreat. A negative correlation is found between the ice-core delta(18)O record and the monsoon precipitation for Indian region 7. The temporal variation of the terrestrial ions (Ca2+ and Mg2+) is controlled by both the monsoon precipitation for Indian regions 3,7 and 8, located directly south and west of the Himalaya, and the dust-storm duration and frequency in the northern arid regions, such as the Taklimakan desert, China. The NH4+ profile is fairly flat until the 1940s, then substantially increases until the end of the 1980s, with a slight decrease during the 1990s which may reflect new agricultural practices. The SO42- and NO3- profiles show an apparent increasing trend, especially during the period 1940s-80s. Moreover, SO42- concentrations for the East Rongbuk Glacier core are roughly double that of the nearby Dasuopu core at Xixabangma, Himalaya, due to local human activity including that of climbing teams who use gasoline for cooking, energy and transport.

A theoretical exploration of catchment-scale sediment delivery

This paper proposes a theoretical explanation of the variations of the sediment delivery ratio (SDR) versus catchment area relationships and the complex patterns in the behavior of sediment transfer processes at catchment scale. Taking into account the effects of erosion source types, deposition, and hydrological controls, we propose a simple conceptual model that consists of two linear stores arranged in series: a hillslope store that addresses transport to the nearest streams and a channel store that addresses sediment routing in the channel network. The model identifies four dimensionless scaling factors, which enable us to analyze a variety of effects on SDR estimation, including (1) interacting processes of erosion sources and deposition, (2) different temporal averaging windows, and (3) catchment runoff response. We show that the interactions between storm duration and hillslope/channel travel times are the major controls of peak-value-based sediment delivery and its spatial variations. The interplay between depositional timescales and the travel/residence times determines the spatial variations of total-volume-based SDR. In practical terms this parsimonious, minimal complexity model could provide a sound physical basis for diagnosing catchment to catchment variability of sediment transport if the proposed scaling factors can be quantified using climatic and catchment properties.

Relationships between rainfall intensity, duration and suspended particle washoff from an urban road surface

A basic understanding of the relationships between rainfall intensity, duration of rainfall and the amount of suspended particles in stormwater runoff generated from road surfaces has been gained mainly from past washoff experiments using rainfall simulators. Simulated rainfall was generally applied at constant intensities, whereas rainfall temporal patterns during actual storms are typically highly variable. This paper discusses a rationale for the application of the constant-intensity washoff concepts to actual storm event runoff. The rationale is tested using suspended particle load data collected at a road site located in Toowoomba, Australia. Agreement between the washoff concepts and measured data is most consistent for intermediate-duration storms (duration <5 h and >1 h). Particle loads resulting from these storm events increase linearly with average rainfall intensity. Above a threshold intensity, there is evidence to suggest a constant or plateau particle load is reached. The inclusion of a peak discharge factor (maximum 6 min rainfall intensity) enhances the ability to predict particle loads.

I. Foehn winds of southern California. II. Foehn wind cyclo-genesis. III. Weather conditions associated with the Akron disaster. IV. The Los Angeles storm of December 30, 1933 to January 1, 1934

I. Foehn winds of southern California.
An investigation of the hot, dry and dust laden winds occurring in the late fall and early winter in the Los Angeles Basin and attributed in the past to the influences of the desert regions to the north revealed that these currents were of a foehn nature. Their properties were found to be entirely due to dynamical heating produced in the descent from the high level areas in the interior to the lower Los Angeles Basin. Any dust associated with the phenomenon was found to be acquired from the Los Angeles area rather than transported from the desert. It was found that the frequency of occurrence of a mild type foehn of this nature during this season was sufficient to warrant its classification as a winter monsoon. This results from the topography of the Los Angeles region which allows an easy entrance to the air from the interior by virtue of the low level mountain passes north of the area. This monsoon provides the mild winter climate of southern California since temperatures associated with the foehn currents are far higher than those experienced when maritime air from the adjacent Pacific Ocean occupies the region.

II. Foehn wind cyclo-genesis.
Intense anticyclones frequently build up over the high level regions of the Great Basin and Columbia Plateau which lie between the Sierra Nevada and Cascade Mountains to the west and the Rocky Mountains to the east. The outflow from these anticyclones produce extensive foehns east of the Rockies in the comparatively low level areas of the middle west and the Canadian provinces of Alberta and Saskatchewan. Normally at this season of the year very cold polar continental air masses are present over this territory and with the occurrence of these foehns marked discontinuity surfaces arise between the warm foehn current, which is obliged to slide over a colder mass, and the Pc air to the east. Cyclones are easily produced from this phenomenon and take the form of unstable waves which propagate along the discontinuity surface between the two dissimilar masses. A continual series of such cyclones was found to occur as long as the Great Basin anticyclone is maintained with undiminished intensity.

III. Weather conditions associated with the Akron disaster.
This situation illustrates the speedy development and propagation of young disturbances in the eastern United States during the spring of the year under the influence of the conditionally unstable tropical maritime air masses which characterise the region. It also furnishes an excellent example of the superiority of air mass and frontal methods of weather prediction for aircraft operation over the older methods based upon pressure distribution.

IV. The Los Angeles storm of December 30, 1933 to January 1, 1934.
This discussion points out some of the fundamental interactions occurring between air masses of the North Pacific Ocean in connection with Pacific Coast storms and the value of topographic and aerological considerations in predicting them. Estimates of rainfall intensity and duration from analyses of this type may be made and would prove very valuable in the Los Angeles area in connection with flood control problems.

Characteristics and variability of storm tracks in the north Pacific, Bering Sea, and Alaska

The North Pacific and Bering Sea regions represent loci of cyclogenesis and storm track activity. In this paper climatological properties of extratropical storms in the North Pacific/Bering Sea are presented based upon aggregate statistics of individual storm tracks calculated by means of a feature-tracking algorithm run using NCEP–NCAR reanalysis data from 1948/49 to 2008, provided by the NOAA/Earth System Research Laboratory and the Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, Climate Diagnostics Center. Storm identification is based on the 850-hPa relative vorticity field (ζ) instead of the often-used mean sea level pressure; ζ is a prognostic field, a good indicator of synoptic-scale dynamics, and is directly related to the wind speed. Emphasis extends beyond winter to provide detailed consideration of all seasons. Results show that the interseasonal variability is not as large during the spring and autumn seasons. Most of the storm variables—genesis, intensity, track density—exhibited a maxima pattern that was oriented along a zonal axis. From season to season this axis underwent a north–south shift and, in some cases, a rotation to the northeast. This was determined to be a result of zonal heating variations and midtropospheric moisture patterns. Barotropic processes have an influence in shaping the downstream end of storm tracks and, together with the blocking influence of the coastal orography of northwest North America, result in high lysis concentrations, effectively making the Gulf of Alaska the “graveyard” of Pacific storms. Summer storms tended to be longest in duration. Temporal trends tended to be weak over the study area. SST did not emerge as a major cyclogenesis control in the Gulf of Alaska.

Impact of duration thresholds on Atlantic tropical cyclone counts*

Records of Atlantic basin tropical cyclones (TCs) since the late nineteenth century indicate a very large upward trend in storm frequency. This increase in documented TCs has been previously interpreted as resulting from anthropogenic climate change. However, improvements in observing and recording practices provide an alternative interpretation for these changes: recent studies suggest that the number of potentially missed TCs is sufficient to explain a large part of the recorded increase in TC counts. This study explores the influence of another factor—TC duration—on observed changes in TC frequency, using a widely used Atlantic hurricane database (HURDAT). It is found that the occurrence of short-lived storms (duration of 2 days or less) in the database has increased dramatically, from less than one per year in the late nineteenth–early twentieth century to about five per year since about 2000, while medium- to long-lived storms have increased little, if at all. Thus, the previously documented increase in total TC frequency since the late nineteenth century in the database is primarily due to an increase in very short-lived TCs. The authors also undertake a sampling study based upon the distribution of ship observations, which provides quantitative estimates of the frequency of missed TCs, focusing just on the moderate to long-lived systems with durations exceeding 2 days in the raw HURDAT. Upon adding the estimated numbers of missed TCs, the time series of moderate to long-lived Atlantic TCs show substantial multidecadal variability, but neither time series exhibits a significant trend since the late nineteenth century, with a nominal decrease in the adjusted time series. Thus, to understand the source of the century-scale increase in Atlantic TC counts in HURDAT, one must explain the relatively monotonic increase in very short-duration storms since the late nineteenth century. While it is possible that the recorded increase in short-duration TCs represents a real climate signal, the authors consider that it is more plausible that the increase arises primarily from improvements in the quantity and quality of observations, along with enhanced interpretation techniques. These have allowed National Hurricane Center forecasters to better monitor and detect initial TC formation, and thus incorporate increasing numbers of very short-lived systems into the TC database.

High-Frequency in Situ Optical Measurements During a Storm Event: Assessing Relationships Between Dissolved Organic Matter, Sediment Concentrations, and Hydrologic Processes

Dissolved organic matter (DOM) dynamics during storm events has received considerable attention in forested watersheds, but the extent to which storms impart rapid changes in DOM concentration and composition in highly disturbed agricultural watersheds remains poorly understood. In this study, we used identical in situ optical sensors for DOM fluorescence (FDOM) with and without filtration to continuously evaluate surface water DOM dynamics in a 415 km(2) agricultural watershed over a 4 week period containing a short-duration rainfall event. Peak turbidity preceded peak discharge by 4 h and increased by over 2 orders of magnitude, while the peak filtered FDOM lagged behind peak turbidity by 15 h. FDOM values reported using the filtered in situ fluorometer increased nearly fourfold and were highly correlated with dissolved organic carbon (DOC) concentrations (r(2) = 0.97), providing a highly resolved proxy for DOC throughout the study period. Discrete optical properties including specific UV absorbance (SUVA(254)), spectral slope (S(290-350)), and fluorescence index (FI) were also strongly correlated with in situ FDOM and indicate a shift toward aromatic, high molecular weight DOM from terrestrially derived sources during the storm. The lag of the peak in FDOM behind peak discharge presumably reflects the draining of watershed soils from natural and agricultural landscapes. Field and experimental evidence showed that unfiltered FDOM measurements underestimated filtered FDOM concentrations by up to similar to 60% at particle concentrations typical of many riverine systems during hydrologic events. Together, laboratory and in situ data provide insights into the timing and magnitude of changes in DOM quantity and quality during storm events in an agricultural watershed, and indicate the need for sample filtration in systems with moderate to high suspended sediment loads.

Improvement of theoretical storm characterization for different climate conditions

The different theoretical models related with storm wave characterization focus on determining the significant wave height of the peak storm, the mean period and, usually assuming a triangle storm shape, their duration. In some cases, the main direction is also considered. Nevertheless, definition of the whole storm history, including the variation of the main random variables during the storm cycle is not taken into consideration. The representativeness of the proposed storm models, analysed in a recent study using an empirical maximum energy flux time dependent function shows that the behaviour of the different storm models is extremely dependent on the climatic characteristics of the project area. Moreover, there are no theoretical models able to adequately reproduce storm history evolution of the sea states characterized by important swell components. To overcome this shortcoming, several theoretical storm shapes are investigated taking into consideration the bases of the three best theoretical storm models, the Equivalent Magnitude Storm (EMS), the Equivalent Number of Waves Storm (ENWS) and the Equivalent Duration Storm (EDS) models. To analyse the representativeness of the new storm shape, the aforementioned maximum energy flux formulation and a wave overtopping discharge structure function are used. With the empirical energy flux formulation, correctness of the different approaches is focussed on the progressive hydraulic stability loss of the main armour layer caused by real and theoretical storms. For the overtopping structure equation, the total volume of discharge is considered. In all cases, the results obtained highlight the greater representativeness of the triangular EMS model for sea waves and the trapezoidal (nonparallel sides) EMS model for waves with a higher degree of wave development. Taking into account the increase in offshore and shallow water wind turbines, maritime transport and deep vertical breakwaters, the maximum wave height of the whole storm history and that corresponding to each sea state belonging to its cycle's evolution is also considered. The procedure considers the information usually available for extreme waves' characterization. Extrapolations of the maximum wave height of the selected storms have also been considered. The 4th order statistics of the sea state belonging to the real and theoretical storm have been estimated to complete the statistical analysis of individual wave height

Duration of extreme wave conditions /

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Storm cycles in the last millennium recorded in Yongshu Reef, southern South China Sea

Large storm-relocated Porites coral blocks are widespread on the reef flats of Nansha area, southern South China Sea. Detailed investigations of coral reef ecology, geomorphology and sedimentation on Yongshu Reef indicate that such storm-relocated blocks originated from large Porites lutea corals growing on the spurs within the reef-front living coral zone. Because the coral reef has experienced sustained subsidence and reef development during the Holocene, dead corals were continuously covered by newly growing coral colonies. For this reason, the coral blocks must have been relocated by storms from the living sites and therefore the ages of these storm-relocated corals should approximate the times when the storms occurred. Rapid emplacement of these blocks is also evidenced by the lack of coral overgrowth, encrustation or subtidal alteration. U-series dating of the storm-relocated blocks as well as of in situ reef flat corals suggests that, during the last 1000 years, at least six strong storms occurred in 1064 +/- 30, 1210 +/- 5-1201 +/- 4, 1336 +/- 9, 1443 +/- 9, 1685 +/- 8-1680 +/- 6, 1872 +/- 15 AD, respectively, with an average 160-year cycle (110-240 years). The last storm, which occurred in 1872 15 AD, also led to mortality of the reef flat corals dated at similar to 130 years ago. Thus, the storm had significant impacts on coral reef ecology and morphology. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Importance of storm events in controlling ecosystem structure and function in a Florida gulf coast estuary

From 8/95 to 2/01, we investigated the ecological effects of intra- and inter-annual variability in freshwater flow through Taylor Creek in southeastern Everglades National Park. Continuous monitoring and intensive sampling studies overlapped with an array of pulsed weather events that impacted physical, chemical, and biological attributes of this region. We quantified the effects of three events representing a range of characteristics (duration, amount of precipitation, storm intensity, wind direction) on the hydraulic connectivity, nutrient and sediment dynamics, and vegetation structure of the SE Everglades estuarine ecotone. These events included a strong winter storm in November 1996, Tropical Storm Harvey in September 1999, and Hurricane Irene in October 1999. Continuous hydrologic and daily water sample data were used to examine the effects of these events on the physical forcing and quality of water in Taylor Creek. A high resolution, flow-through sampling and mapping approach was used to characterize water quality in the adjacent bay. To understand the effects of these events on vegetation communities, we measured mangrove litter production and estimated seagrass cover in the bay at monthly intervals. We also quantified sediment deposition associated with Hurricane Irene's flood surge along the Buttonwood Ridge. These three events resulted in dramatic changes in surface water movement and chemistry in Taylor Creek and adjacent regions of Florida Bay as well as increased mangrove litterfall and flood surge scouring of seagrass beds. Up to 5 cm of bay-derived mud was deposited along the ridge adjacent to the creek in this single pulsed event. These short-term events can account for a substantial proportion of the annual flux of freshwater and materials between the mangrove zone and Florida Bay. Our findings shed light on the capacity of these storm events, especially when in succession, to have far reaching and long lasting effects on coastal ecosystems such as the estuarine ecotone of the SE Everglades.