Reliability properties under a stopping time shift

Considering a series representation of a coherent system using a shift transform of the components lifetime T-i, at its critical level Y-i, we study two problems. First, under such a shift transform, we analyse the preservation properties of the non-parametric distribution classes and secondly the association preserving property of the components lifetime under such transformations. (c) 2007 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Linear quadratic Gaussian control of discrete-time Markov jump linear systems with horizon defined by stopping times

The linear quadratic Gaussian control of discrete-time Markov jump linear systems is addressed in this paper, first for state feedback, and also for dynamic output feedback using state estimation. in the model studied, the problem horizon is defined by a stopping time τ which represents either, the occurrence of a fix number N of failures or repairs (T N), or the occurrence of a crucial failure event (τ δ), after which the system paralyzed. From the constructive method used here a separation principle holds, and the solutions are given in terms of a Kalman filter and a state feedback sequence of controls. The control gains are obtained by recursions from a set of algebraic Riccati equations for the former case or by a coupled set of algebraic Riccati equation for the latter case. Copyright © 2005 IFAC.

Early stopping by using stochastic curtailment in a three-arm sequential trial

Summary. Interim analysis is important in a large clinical trial for ethical and cost considerations. Sometimes, an interim analysis needs to be performed at an earlier than planned time point. In that case, methods using stochastic curtailment are useful in examining the data for early stopping while controlling the inflation of type I and type II errors. We consider a three-arm randomized study of treatments to reduce perioperative blood loss following major surgery. Owing to slow accrual, an unplanned interim analysis was required by the study team to determine whether the study should be continued. We distinguish two different cases: when all treatments are under direct comparison and when one of the treatments is a control. We used simulations to study the operating characteristics of five different stochastic curtailment methods. We also considered the influence of timing of the interim analyses on the type I error and power of the test. We found that the type I error and power between the different methods can be quite different. The analysis for the perioperative blood loss trial was carried out at approximately a quarter of the planned sample size. We found that there is little evidence that the active treatments are better than a placebo and recommended closure of the trial.

Gait termination in young and older adults : effect of stopping stimulus probability and stimulus delay

Sixteen young (25±2.6 years) and 16 older individuals (69±4.4 years) walked normally then terminated walking rapidly. A visual stopping stimulus was presented 10 ms following ground contact (short delay) and in another condition, at 450 ms prior to toe-off (long delay). Stimulus probability was either high (80% of trials) or low (10%). The younger group stopped faster (463 vs. 574 ms) despite also walking faster (1.29 vs. 1.17 m s⁻¹). Longer delay decreased one-step responses but older participants used significantly more (slower) two-step stopping, which increased stopping time and distance. The additional step may have been pre-planned to maintain medial–lateral stability.

The LQ control problem for Markovian jumps linear systems with horizon defined by stopping times

This paper deals with a stochastic optimal control problem involving discrete-time jump Markov linear systems. The jumps or changes between the system operation modes evolve according to an underlying Markov chain. In the model studied, the problem horizon is defined by a stopping time τ which represents either, the occurrence of a fix number N of failures or repairs (TN), or the occurrence of a crucial failure event (τΔ), after which the system is brought to a halt for maintenance. In addition, an intermediary mixed case for which T represents the minimum between TN and τΔ is also considered. These stopping times coincide with some of the jump times of the Markov state and the information available allows the reconfiguration of the control action at each jump time, in the form of a linear feedback gain. The solution for the linear quadratic problem with complete Markov state observation is presented. The solution is given in terms of recursions of a set of algebraic Riccati equations (ARE) or a coupled set of algebraic Riccati equation (CARE).

Asymptotic Change-Point Analysis of the Dependencies in Time Series

In recent papers, Wied and his coauthors have introduced change-point procedures to detect and estimate structural breaks in the correlation between time series. To prove the asymptotic distribution of the test statistic and stopping time as well as the change-point estimation rate, they use an extended functional Delta method and assume nearly constant expectations and variances of the time series. In this thesis, we allow asymptotically infinitely many structural breaks in the means and variances of the time series. For this setting, we present test statistics and stopping times which are used to determine whether or not the correlation between two time series is and stays constant, respectively. Additionally, we consider estimates for change-points in the correlations. The employed nonparametric statistics depend on the means and variances. These (nuisance) parameters are replaced by estimates in the course of this thesis. We avoid assuming a fixed form of these estimates but rather we use "blackbox" estimates, i.e. we derive results under assumptions that these estimates fulfill. These results are supplement with examples. This thesis is organized in seven sections. In Section 1, we motivate the issue and present the mathematical model. In Section 2, we consider a posteriori and sequential testing procedures, and investigate convergence rates for change-point estimation, always assuming that the means and the variances of the time series are known. In the following sections, the assumptions of known means and variances are relaxed. In Section 3, we present the assumptions for the mean and variance estimates that we will use for the mean in Section 4, for the variance in Section 5, and for both parameters in Section 6. Finally, in Section 7, a simulation study illustrates the finite sample behaviors of some testing procedures and estimates.

Optimal eradication: When to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter. © 2006 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/CNRS.

A note on Gittins indexes for pharmaceutical research

The Bernoulli/exponential target process is considered. Such processes have been found useful in modelling the search for active compounds in pharmaceutical research. An inequality is presented which improves a result of Gittins (1989), thus providing a better approximation to the Gittins indices which define the optimal search policy.

Bias reduction using stochastic approximation

The paper studies stochastic approximation as a technique for bias reduction. The proposed method does not require approximating the bias explicitly, nor does it rely on having independent identically distributed (i.i.d.) data. The method always removes the leading bias term, under very mild conditions, as long as auxiliary samples from distributions with given parameters are available. Expectation and variance of the bias-corrected estimate are given. Examples in sequential clinical trials (non-i.i.d. case), curved exponential models (i.i.d. case) and length-biased sampling (where the estimates are inconsistent) are used to illustrate the applications of the proposed method and its small sample properties.

Error bounds for calculation of the Gittins indices

For a wide class of semi-Markov decision processes the optimal policies are expressible in terms of the Gittins indices, which have been found useful in sequential clinical trials and pharmaceutical research planning. In general, the indices can be approximated via calibration based on dynamic programming of finite horizon. This paper provides some results on the accuracy of such approximations, and, in particular, gives the error bounds for some well known processes (Bernoulli reward processes, normal reward processes and exponential target processes).

Gittins indices and constrained allocation in clinical trials

We explore the use of Gittins indices to search for near optimality in sequential clinical trials. Some adaptive allocation rules are proposed to achieve the following two objectives as far as possible: (i) to reduce the expected successes lost, (ii) to minimize the error probability at the end. Simulation results indicate the merits of the rules based on Gittins indices for small trial sizes. The rules are generalized to the case when neither of the response densities is known. Asymptotic optimality is derived for the constrained rules. A simple allocation rule is recommended for one-stage models. The simulation results indicate that it works better than both equal allocation and Bather's randomized allocation. We conclude with a discussion of possible further developments.

Optimal eradication: when to stop looking for an invasive plant

The notion of being sure that you have completely eradicated an invasive species is fanciful because of imperfect detection and persistent seed banks. Eradication is commonly declared either on an ad hoc basis, on notions of seed bank longevity, or on setting arbitrary thresholds of 1% or 5% confidence that the species is not present. Rather than declaring eradication at some arbitrary level of confidence, we take an economic approach in which we stop looking when the expected costs outweigh the expected benefits. We develop theory that determines the number of years of absent surveys required to minimize the net expected cost. Given detection of a species is imperfect, the optimal stopping time is a trade-off between the cost of continued surveying and the cost of escape and damage if eradication is declared too soon. A simple rule of thumb compares well to the exact optimal solution using stochastic dynamic programming. Application of the approach to the eradication programme of Helenium amarum reveals that the actual stopping time was a precautionary one given the ranges for each parameter.

Parametrized actor-critic algorithms for finite-horizon MDPs

Due to their non-stationarity, finite-horizon Markov decision processes (FH-MDPs) have one probability transition matrix per stage. Thus the curse of dimensionality affects FH-MDPs more severely than infinite-horizon MDPs. We propose two parametrized 'actor-critic' algorithms to compute optimal policies for FH-MDPs. Both algorithms use the two-timescale stochastic approximation technique, thus simultaneously performing gradient search in the parametrized policy space (the 'actor') on a slower timescale and learning the policy gradient (the 'critic') via a faster recursion. This is in contrast to methods where critic recursions learn the cost-to-go proper. We show w.p 1 convergence to a set with the necessary condition for constrained optima. The proposed parameterization is for FHMDPs with compact action sets, although certain exceptions can be handled. Further, a third algorithm for stochastic control of stopping time processes is presented. We explain why current policy evaluation methods do not work as critic to the proposed actor recursion. Simulation results from flow-control in communication networks attest to the performance advantages of all three algorithms.

Generalization of Dynkin's Identity and Some Applications

Let X(t) be a right continuous temporally homogeneous Markov pro- cess, Tt the corresponding semigroup and A the weak infinitesimal genera- tor. Let g(t) be absolutely continuous and r a stopping time satisfying E.( S f I g(t) I dt) < oo and E.( f " I g'(t) I dt) < oo Then for f e 9iJ(A) with f(X(t)) right continuous the identity Exg(r)f(X(z)) - g(O)f(x) = E( 5 " g'(s)f(X(s)) ds) + E.( 5 " g(s)Af(X(s)) ds) is a simple generalization of Dynkin's identity (g(t) 1). With further restrictions on f and r the following identity is obtained as a corollary: Ex(f(X(z))) = f(x) + k! Ex~rkAkf(X(z))) + n-1E + (n ) )!.E,(so un-1Anf(X(u)) du). These identities are applied to processes with stationary independent increments to obtain a number of new and known results relating the moments of stopping times to the moments of the stopped processes.

高能离子在稠密等离子体中的传输和能量沉积

用相对论福克-普朗克方程对高能离子在稠密氘氚等离子体中的碰撞动力学进行了研究,用球谐函数来展开方程的解：格林函数,然后简明地求出了不同能量质子和α粒子在等离子体中的停止时间、减速距离、纵向弥散距离和横向偏转距离.与以前研究离子在等离子体中运动的方法相比,没有假设高能离子在等离子体中损失能量远远小于入射离子能量,求解了纵向弥散距离;并且可以求解横向偏转距离.这些计算对实验上用高能离子加热冷的稠密等离子体,然后进行科学研究具有指导作用,并且可以用来研究快点火的可能性.