Advances in sequential data assimilation and numerical weather forecasting: an Ensemble Transform Kalman-Bucy Filter, a study on clustering in deterministic Ensemble Square Root Filters, and a test of a new time stepping scheme in an atmospheric model

This dissertation deals with aspects of sequential data assimilation (in particular ensemble Kalman filtering) and numerical weather forecasting. In the first part, the recently formulated Ensemble Kalman-Bucy (EnKBF) filter is revisited. It is shown that the previously used numerical integration scheme fails when the magnitude of the background error covariance grows beyond that of the observational error covariance in the forecast window. Therefore, we present a suitable integration scheme that handles the stiffening of the differential equations involved and doesn’t represent further computational expense. Moreover, a transform-based alternative to the EnKBF is developed: under this scheme, the operations are performed in the ensemble space instead of in the state space. Advantages of this formulation are explained. For the first time, the EnKBF is implemented in an atmospheric model. The second part of this work deals with ensemble clustering, a phenomenon that arises when performing data assimilation using of deterministic ensemble square root filters in highly nonlinear forecast models. Namely, an M-member ensemble detaches into an outlier and a cluster of M-1 members. Previous works may suggest that this issue represents a failure of EnSRFs; this work dispels that notion. It is shown that ensemble clustering can be reverted also due to nonlinear processes, in particular the alternation between nonlinear expansion and compression of the ensemble for different regions of the attractor. Some EnSRFs that use random rotations have been developed to overcome this issue; these formulations are analyzed and their advantages and disadvantages with respect to common EnSRFs are discussed. The third and last part contains the implementation of the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter in an atmospheric model. The RAW filter is an improvement to the widely popular Robert-Asselin filter that successfully suppresses spurious computational waves while avoiding any distortion in the mean value of the function. Using statistical significance tests both at the local and field level, it is shown that the climatology of the SPEEDY model is not modified by the changed time stepping scheme; hence, no retuning of the parameterizations is required. It is found the accuracy of the medium-term forecasts is increased by using the RAW filter.

Modelling and Control of Stepper Motors for High Accuracy Positioning Systems Used in Radioactive Environments

Hybrid Stepper Motors are widely used in open-loop position applications. They are the choice of actuation for the collimators in the Large Hadron Collider, the largest particle accelerator at CERN. In this case the positioning requirements and the highly radioactive operating environment are unique. The latter forces both the use of long cables to connect the motors to the drives which act as transmission lines and also prevents the use of standard position sensors. However, reliable and precise operation of the collimators is critical for the machine, requiring the prevention of step loss in the motors and maintenance to be foreseen in case of mechanical degradation. In order to make the above possible, an approach is proposed for the application of an Extended Kalman Filter to a sensorless stepper motor drive, when the motor is separated from its drive by long cables. When the long cables and high frequency pulse width modulated control voltage signals are used together, the electrical signals difer greatly between the motor and drive-side of the cable. Since in the considered case only drive-side data is available, it is therefore necessary to estimate the motor-side signals. Modelling the entire cable and motor system in an Extended Kalman Filter is too computationally intensive for standard embedded real-time platforms. It is, in consequence, proposed to divide the problem into an Extended Kalman Filter, based only on the motor model, and separated motor-side signal estimators, the combination of which is less demanding computationally. The efectiveness of this approach is shown in simulation. Then its validity is experimentally demonstrated via implementation in a DSP based drive. A testbench to test its performance when driving an axis of a Large Hadron Collider collimator is presented along with the results achieved. It is shown that the proposed method is capable of achieving position and load torque estimates which allow step loss to be detected and mechanical degradation to be evaluated without the need for physical sensors. These estimation algorithms often require a precise model of the motor, but the standard electrical model used for hybrid stepper motors is limited when currents, which are high enough to produce saturation of the magnetic circuit, are present. New model extensions are proposed in order to have a more precise model of the motor independently of the current level, whilst maintaining a low computational cost. It is shown that a significant improvement in the model It is achieved with these extensions, and their computational performance is compared to study the cost of model improvement versus computation cost. The applicability of the proposed model extensions is demonstrated via their use in an Extended Kalman Filter running in real-time for closed-loop current control and mechanical state estimation. An additional problem arises from the use of stepper motors. The mechanics of the collimators can wear due to the abrupt motion and torque profiles that are applied by them when used in the standard way, i.e. stepping in open-loop. Closed-loop position control, more specifically Field Oriented Control, would allow smoother profiles, more respectful to the mechanics, to be applied but requires position feedback. As mentioned already, the use of sensors in radioactive environments is very limited for reliability reasons. Sensorless control is a known option but when the speed is very low or zero, as is the case most of the time for the motors used in the LHC collimator, the loss of observability prevents its use. In order to allow the use of position sensors without reducing the long term reliability of the whole system, the possibility to switch from closed to open loop is proposed and validated, allowing the use of closed-loop control when the position sensors function correctly and open-loop when there is a sensor failure. A different approach to deal with the switched drive working with long cables is also presented. Switched mode stepper motor drives tend to have poor performance or even fail completely when the motor is fed through a long cable due to the high oscillations in the drive-side current. The design of a stepper motor output fillter which solves this problem is thus proposed. A two stage filter, one devoted to dealing with the diferential mode and the other with the common mode, is designed and validated experimentally. With this ?lter the drive performance is greatly improved, achieving a positioning repeatability even better than with the drive working without a long cable, the radiated emissions are reduced and the overvoltages at the motor terminals are eliminated.

High Diagnostic Accuracy And Reproducibility Of Fine-needle Aspiration Cytology For Diagnosing Salivary Gland Tumors: Cytohistologic Correlation In 182 Cases.

The purpose of this study was to assess the efficacy and reproducibility of the cytologic diagnosis of salivary gland tumors (SGTs) using fine-needle aspiration cytology (FNAC). The study aimed to determine diagnostic accuracy, sensitivity, and specificity and to evaluate the extent of interobserver agreement. We retrospectively evaluated SGTs from the files of the Division of Pathology at the Clinics Hospital of São Paulo and Piracicaba Dental School between 2000 and 2006. We performed cytohistologic correlation in 182 SGTs. The sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, negative predictive value, and diagnostic accuracy were 94%, 100%, 100%, 100%, and 99%, respectively. The interobserver cytologic reproducibility showed significant statistical concordance (P < .0001). FNAC is an effective tool for performing a reliable preoperative diagnosis in SGTs and shows high diagnostic accuracy and consistent interobserver reproducibility. Further FNAC studies analyzing large samples of malignant SGTs and reactive salivary lesions are needed to confirm their accuracy.

Comparison Of Different Transfer Impression Techniques Accuracy For Osseointegrated Implants.

Abstract The aim of this study was to evaluate three transfer techniques used to obtain working casts of implant-supported prostheses through the marginal misfit and strain induced to metallic framework. Thirty working casts were obtained from a metallic master cast, each one containing two implant analogues simulating a clinical situation of three-unit implant-supported fixed prostheses, according to the following transfer impression techniques: Group A, squared transfers splinted with dental floss and acrylic resin, sectioned and re-splinted; Group B, squared transfers splinted with dental floss and bis-acrylic resin; and Group N, squared transfers not splinted. A metallic framework was made for marginal misfit and strain measurements from the metallic master cast. The misfit between metallic framework and the working casts was evaluated with an optical microscope following the single-screw test protocol. In the same conditions, the strain was evaluated using strain gauges placed on the metallic framework. The data was submitted to one-way ANOVA followed by the Tukey's test (α=5%). For both marginal misfit and strain, there were statistically significant differences between Groups A and N (p<0.01) and Groups B and N (p<0.01), with greater values for the Group N. According to the Pearson's test, there was a positive correlation between the variables misfit and strain (r=0.5642). The results of this study showed that the impression techniques with splinted transfers promoted better accuracy than non-splinted one, regardless of the splinting material utilized.

Strain Gauges's Analysis On Implant-retained Prosthesis' Cast Accuracy.

A proper cast is essential for a successful rehabilitation with implant prostheses, in order to produce better structures and induce less strain on the implants. The aim of this study was to evaluate the precision of four different mold filling techniques and verify an accurate methodology to evaluate these techniques. A total of 40 casts were obtained from a metallic matrix simulating three unit implant-retained prostheses. The molds were filled using four different techniques in four groups (n = 10): Group 1 - Single-portion filling technique; Group 2 - Two-step filling technique; Group 3 - Latex cylinder technique; Group 4 - Joining the implant analogs previously to the mold filling. A titanium framework was obtained and used as a reference to evaluate the marginal misfit and tension forces in each cast. Vertical misfit was measured with an optical microscope with an increase of 120 times following the single-screw test protocol. Strain was quantified using strain gauges. Data were analyzed using one-way ANOVA (Tukey's test) (α =0.05). The correlation between strain and vertical misfit was evaluated by Pearson test. The misfit values did not present statistical difference (P = 0.979), while the strain results showed statistical difference between Groups 3 and 4 (P = 0.027). The splinting technique was considered to be as efficient as the conventional technique. The strain gauge methodology was accurate for strain measurements and cast distortion evaluation. There was no correlation between strain and marginal misfit.

Characterization Of Anfo Explosive By High Accuracy Esi(±)-ftms With Forensic Identification On Real Samples By Easi(-)-ms.

Ammonium nitrate fuel oil (ANFO) is an explosive used in many civil applications. In Brazil, ANFO has unfortunately also been used in criminal attacks, mainly in automated teller machine (ATM) explosions. In this paper, we describe a detailed characterization of the ANFO composition and its two main constituents (diesel and a nitrate explosive) using high resolution and accuracy mass spectrometry performed on an FT-ICR-mass spectrometer with electrospray ionization (ESI(±)-FTMS) in both the positive and negative ion modes. Via ESI(-)-MS, an ion marker for ANFO was characterized. Using a direct and simple ambient desorption/ionization technique, i.e., easy ambient sonic-spray ionization mass spectrometry (EASI-MS), in a simpler, lower accuracy but robust single quadrupole mass spectrometer, the ANFO ion marker was directly detected from the surface of banknotes collected from ATM explosion theft.

Accuracy of stone casts obtained by different impression materials

Several impression materials are available in the Brazilian marketplace to be used in oral rehabilitation. The aim of this study was to compare the accuracy of different impression materials used for fixed partial dentures following the manufacturers' instructions. A master model representing a partially edentulous mandibular right hemi-arch segment whose teeth were prepared to receive full crowns was used. Custom trays were prepared with auto-polymerizing acrylic resin and impressions were performed with a dental surveyor, standardizing the path of insertion and removal of the tray. Alginate and elastomeric materials were used and stone casts were obtained after the impressions. For the silicones, impression techniques were also compared. To determine the impression materials' accuracy, digital photographs of the master model and of the stone casts were taken and the discrepancies between them were measured. The data were subjected to analysis of variance and Duncan's complementary test. Polyether and addition silicone following the single-phase technique were statistically different from alginate, condensation silicone and addition silicone following the double-mix technique (p < .05), presenting smaller discrepancies. However, condensation silicone was similar (p > .05) to alginate and addition silicone following the double-mix technique, but different from polysulfide. The results led to the conclusion that different impression materials and techniques influenced the stone casts' accuracy in a way that polyether, polysulfide and addition silicone following the single-phase technique were more accurate than the other materials.

Accuracy of three electronic apex locators in the presence of different irrigating solutions

The present study compared the accuracy of three electronic apex locators (EALs) - Elements Diagnostic®, Root ZX® and Apex DSP® - in the presence of different irrigating solutions (0.9% saline solution and 1% sodium hypochlorite). The electronic measurements were carried out by three examiners, using twenty extracted human permanent maxillary central incisors. A size 10 K file was introduced into the root canals until reaching the 0.0 mark, and was subsequently retracted to the 1.0 mark. The gold standard (GS) measurement was obtained by combining visual and radiographic methods, and was set 1 mm short of the apical foramen. Electronic length values closer to the GS (± 0.5 mm) were considered as accurate measures. Intraclass correlation coefficients (ICCs) were used to verify inter-examiner agreement. The comparison among the EALs was performed using the McNemar and Kruskal-Wallis tests (p < 0.05). The ICCs were generally high, ranging from 0.8859 to 0.9657. Similar results were observed for the percentage of electronic measurements closer to the GS obtained with the Elements Diagnostic® and the Root ZX® EALs (p > 0.05), independent of the irrigating solutions used. The measurements taken with these two EALs were more accurate than those taken with Apex DSP®, regardless of the irrigating solution used (p < 0.05). It was concluded that Elements Diagnostic® and Root ZX® apex locators are able to locate the cementum-dentine junction more precisely than Apex DSP®. The presence of irrigating solutions does not interfere with the performance of the EALs.

Do synergies improve accuracy? A study of speed-accuracy trade-offs during finger force production

We explored possible effects of negative covariation among finger forces in multifinger accurate force production tasks on the classical Fitts's speed-accuracy trade-off. Healthy subjects performed cyclic force changes between pairs of targets ""as quickly and accurately as possible."" Tasks with two force amplitudes and six ratics of force amplitude to target size were performed by each of the four fingers of the right hand and four finger combinations. There was a close to linear relation between movement time and the log-transformed ratio of target amplitude to target size across all finger combinations. There was a close to linear relation between standard deviation of force amplitude and movement time. There were no differences between the performance of either of the two ""radial"" fingers (index and middle) and the multifinger tasks. The ""ulnar"" fingers (little and ring) showed higher indices of variability and longer movement times as compared with both ""radial"" fingers and multifinger combinations. We conclude that potential effects of the negative covariation and also of the task-sharing across a set of fingers are counterbalanced by an increase in individual finger force variability in multifinger tasks as compared with single-finger tasks. The results speak in favor of a feed-forward model of multifinger synergies. They corroborate a hypothesis that multifinger synergies are created not to improve overall accuracy, but to allow the system larger flexibility, for example to deal with unexpected perturbations and concomitant tasks.

An empirical evaluation of imputation accuracy for association statistics reveals increased type-I error rates in genome-wide associations

Background: Genome wide association studies (GWAS) are becoming the approach of choice to identify genetic determinants of complex phenotypes and common diseases. The astonishing amount of generated data and the use of distinct genotyping platforms with variable genomic coverage are still analytical challenges. Imputation algorithms combine directly genotyped markers information with haplotypic structure for the population of interest for the inference of a badly genotyped or missing marker and are considered a near zero cost approach to allow the comparison and combination of data generated in different studies. Several reports stated that imputed markers have an overall acceptable accuracy but no published report has performed a pair wise comparison of imputed and empiric association statistics of a complete set of GWAS markers. Results: In this report we identified a total of 73 imputed markers that yielded a nominally statistically significant association at P < 10(-5) for type 2 Diabetes Mellitus and compared them with results obtained based on empirical allelic frequencies. Interestingly, despite their overall high correlation, association statistics based on imputed frequencies were discordant in 35 of the 73 (47%) associated markers, considerably inflating the type I error rate of imputed markers. We comprehensively tested several quality thresholds, the haplotypic structure underlying imputed markers and the use of flanking markers as predictors of inaccurate association statistics derived from imputed markers. Conclusions: Our results suggest that association statistics from imputed markers showing specific MAF (Minor Allele Frequencies) range, located in weak linkage disequilibrium blocks or strongly deviating from local patterns of association are prone to have inflated false positive association signals. The present study highlights the potential of imputation procedures and proposes simple procedures for selecting the best imputed markers for follow-up genotyping studies.

Single interface flow analysis with accuracy assessment

Single interface flow systems (SIFA) present some noteworthy advantages when compared to other flow systems, such as a simpler configuration, a more straightforward operation and control and an undemanding optimisation routine. Moreover, the plain reaction zone establishment, which relies strictly on the mutual inter-dispersion of the adjoining solutions, could be exploited to set up multiple sequential reaction schemes providing supplementary information regarding the species under determination. In this context, strategies for accuracy assessment could be favourably implemented. To this end, the sample could be processed by two quasi-independent analytical methods and the final result would be calculated after considering the two different methods. Intrinsically more precise and accurate results would be then gathered. In order to demonstrate the feasibility of the approach, a SIFA system with spectrophotometric detection was designed for the determination of lansoprazole in pharmaceutical formulations. Two reaction interfaces with two distinct pi-acceptors, chloranilic acid (CIA) and 2,3-dichloro-5,6-dicyano-p-benzoquinone (DDQ) were implemented. Linear working concentration ranges between 2.71 x 10(-4) to 8.12 x 10(-4) mol L(-1) and 2.17 x 10(-4) to 8.12 x 10(-4) mol L(-1) were obtained for DDQ and CIA methods, respectively. When compared with the results furnished by the reference procedure, the results showed relative deviations lower than 2.7%. Furthermore. the repeatability was good, with r.s.d. lower than 3.8% and 4.7% for DDQ and CIA methods, respectively. Determination rate was about 30 h(-1). (C) 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

The accuracy of the Clock Drawing Test compared to that of standard screening tests for Alzheimer`s disease: results from a study of Brazilian elderly with heterogeneous educational backgrounds

Background: Although the Clock Drawing Test (CDT) is the second most used test in the world for the screening of dementia, there is still debate over its sensitivity specificity, application and interpretation in dementia diagnosis. This study has three main aims: to evaluate the sensitivity and specificity of the CDT in a sample composed of older adults with Alzheimer`s disease (AD) and normal controls; to compare CDT accuracy to the that of the Mini-mental State Examination (MMSE) and the Cambridge Cognitive Examination (CAMCOG), and to test whether the association of the MMSE with the CDT leads to higher or comparable accuracy as that reported for the CAMCOG. Methods: Cross-sectional assessment was carried out for 121 AD and 99 elderly controls with heterogeneous educational levels from a geriatric outpatient clinic who completed the Cambridge Examination for Mental Disorder of the Elderly (CAMDEX). The CDT was evaluated according to the Shulman, Mendez and Sunderland scales. Results: The CDT showed high sensitivity and specificity. There were significant correlations between the CDT and the MMSE (0.700-0.730; p < 0.001) and between the CDT and the CAMCOG (0.753-0.779; p < 0.001). The combination of the CDT with the MMSE improved sensitivity and specificity (SE = 89.2-90%; SP = 71.7-79.8%). Subgroup analysis indicated that for elderly people with lower education, sensitivity and specificity were both adequate and high. Conclusions: The CDT is a robust screening test when compared with the MMSE or the CAMCOG, independent of the scale used for its interpretation. The combination with the MMSE improves its performance significantly, becoming equivalent to the CAMCOG.

Short Cognitive Performance Test: Diagnostic Accuracy and Education Bias in Older Brazilian Adults

The ""Short Cognitive Performance Test"" (Syndrom Kurztest, SKT) is a cognitive screening battery designed to detect memory and attention deficits. The aim of this study was to evaluate the diagnostic accuracy of the SKT as a screening tool for mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia. A total of 46 patients with Alzheimer`s disease (AD), 82 with MCI, and 56 healthy controls were included in the study. Patients and controls were allocated into two groups according to educational level (< 8 years or > 8 years). ROC analyses suggested that the SKT adequately discriminates AD from non-demented subjects (MCI and controls), irrespective of the education group. The test had good sensitivity to discriminate MCI from unimpaired controls in the sub-sample of individuals with more than 8 years of schooling. Our findings suggest that the SKT is a good screening test for cognitive impairment and dementia. However, test results must be interpreted with caution when administered to less-educated individuals.

High accuracy and fast acquisition time of polarisation nulling-based OSNR monitor

A technique for improving the performance of an OSNR monitor based on a polarisation nulling method with the downhill simplex algorithm is demonstrated. Establishing a compromise between accuracy and acquisition time, the monitor has been calibrated to 0.72 dB/390 ms and 0.98 dB/320 ms, over a range of nearly 21 dB. As far as is known, these are the best values achieved with such an OSNR monitoring method.

On the accuracy of two-fluid model predictions for a particular gas-solid riser flow

Literature presents a huge number of different simulations of gas-solid flows in risers applying two-fluid modeling. In spite of that, the related quantitative accuracy issue remains mostly untouched. This state of affairs seems to be mainly a consequence of modeling shortcomings, notably regarding the lack of realistic closures. In this article predictions from a two-fluid model are compared to other published two-fluid model predictions applying the same Closures, and to experimental data. A particular matter of concern is whether the predictions are generated or not inside the statistical steady state regime that characterizes the riser flows. The present simulation was performed inside the statistical steady state regime. Time-averaged results are presented for different time-averaging intervals of 5, 10, 15 and 20 s inside the statistical steady state regime. The independence of the averaged results regarding the time-averaging interval is addressed and the results averaged over the intervals of 10 and 20 s are compared to both experiment and other two-fluid predictions. It is concluded that the two-fluid model used is still very crude, and cannot provide quantitative accurate results, at least for the particular case that was considered. (C) 2009 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.