The precipitation climate of Central Asia: intercomparison of observational and numerical data sources in a remote semiarid region

In this study, we systematically compare a wide range of observational and numerical precipitation datasets for Central Asia. Data considered include two re-analyses, three datasets based on direct observations, and the output of a regional climate model simulation driven by a global re-analysis. These are validated and intercompared with respect to their ability to represent the Central Asian precipitation climate. In each of the datasets, we consider the mean spatial distribution and the seasonal cycle of precipitation, the amplitude of interannual variability, the representation of individual yearly anomalies, the precipitation sensitivity (i.e. the response to wet and dry conditions), and the temporal homogeneity of precipitation. Additionally, we carried out part of these analyses for datasets available in real time. The mutual agreement between the observations is used as an indication of how far these data can be used for validating precipitation data from other sources. In particular, we show that the observations usually agree qualitatively on anomalies in individual years while it is not always possible to use them for the quantitative validation of the amplitude of interannual variability. The regional climate model is capable of improving the spatial distribution of precipitation. At the same time, it strongly underestimates summer precipitation and its variability, while interannual variations are well represented during the other seasons, in particular in the Central Asian mountains during winter and spring

Guide to service industry statistics and related data.

Mode of access: Internet.

Joint experimental and numerical approach to three-dimensional shock control bump research

Previous studies of transonic shock control bumps have often been either numerical or experimental. Comparisons between the two have been hampered by the limitations of either approach. The present work aims to bridge the gap between computational fluid dynamics and experiment by planning a joint approach from the outset. This enables high-quality validation data to be produced and ensures that the conclusions of either aspect of the study are directly relevant to the application. Experiments conducted with bumps mounted on the floor of a blowdown tunnel were modified to include an additional postshock adverse pressure gradient through the use of a diffuser as well as introducing boundary-layer suction ahead of the test section to enable the in-flow boundary layer to be manipulated. This has the advantage of being an inexpensive and highly repeatable method. Computations were performed on a standard airfoil model, with the flight conditions as free parameters. The experimental and computational setups were then tuned to produce baseline conditions that agree well, enabling confidence that the experimental conclusions are relevant. The methods are then applied to two different shock control bumps: a smoothly contoured bump, representative of previous studies, and a novel extended geometry featuring a continuously widening tail, which spans the wind-tunnel width at the rear of the bump. Comparison between the computational and experimental results for the contour bump showed good agreement both with respect to the flow structures and quantitative analysis of the boundary-layer parameters. It was seen that combining the experimental and numerical data could provide valuable insight into the flow physics, which would not generally be possible for a one-sided approach. The experiments and computational fluid dynamics were also seen to agree well for the extended bump geometry, providing evidence that, even though thebumpinteracts directly with the wind-tunnel walls, it was still possible to observe the key flow physics. The joint approach is thus suitable even for wider bump geometries. Copyright © 2013 by S. P. Colliss, H. Babinsky, K. Nubler, and T. Lutz. Published by the American Institute of Aeronautics and Astronautics, Inc.

Partial epilepsy syndrome in a Gypsy family linked to 5q31.3-q32

PURPOSE The restricted genetic diversity and homogeneous molecular basis of Mendelian disorders in isolated founder populations have rarely been explored in epilepsy research. Our long-term goal is to explore the genetic basis of epilepsies in one such population, the Gypsies. The aim of this report is the clinical and genetic characterization of a Gypsy family with a partial epilepsy syndrome. METHODS Clinical information was collected using semistructured interviews with affected subjects and informants. At least one interictal electroencephalography (EEG) recording was performed for each patient and previous data obtained from records. Neuroimaging included structural magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). Linkage and haplotype analysis was performed using the Illumina IVb Linkage Panel, supplemented with highly informative microsatellites in linked regions and Affymetrix SNP 5.0 array data. RESULTS We observed an early-onset partial epilepsy syndrome with seizure semiology strongly suggestive of temporal lobe epilepsy (TLE), with mild intellectual deficit co-occurring in a large proportion of the patients. Psychiatric morbidity was common in the extended pedigree but did not cosegregate with epilepsy. Linkage analysis definitively excluded previously reported loci, and identified a novel locus on 5q31.3-q32 with an logarithm of the odds (LOD) score of 3 corresponding to the expected maximum in this family. DISCUSSION The syndrome can be classified as familial temporal lobe epilepsy (FTLE) or possibly a new syndrome with mild intellectual deficit. The linked 5q region does not contain any ion channel-encoding genes and is thus likely to contribute new knowledge about epilepsy pathogenesis. Identification of the mutation in this family and in additional patients will define the full phenotypic spectrum.

Análise de estratégias argumentativas no gênero editorial

Os editoriais são textos argumentativos que expõem a visão do jornal, do qual fazem parte, sobre um determinado acontecimento. Na construção destes textos, o jornalista dispõe de estratégias que o auxiliam na produção de sua argumentação. Este trabalho tem como objetivo analisar quais estratégias são utilizadas nos textos de editoriais. As estratégias estudadas neste trabalho são a citação, o argumento de autoridade, as aspas, a seleção lexical (índices de avaliação e indicadores atitudinais, metáforas, termos semanticamente relacionados, etc), as porcentagens, estatísticas e dados numéricos, as exemplificações, a concessão e os modalizadores. Para tanto, foram selecionados vinte e quatro textos de editoriais do jornal O Globo, adquiridos semanalmente, ao longo do primeiro semestre de 2008. Através da análise, foi observado que tais estratégias se mostraram recorrentes e que as mesmas trouxeram contribuição para o propósito comunicativo do argumentador, bem como auxiliaram na busca da persuasão do leitor

Estudo da prevalência da utilização de protetores bucais em praticantes da arte marcial Muay Thai

Projeto de Pós-Graduação/Dissertação apresentado à Universidade Fernando Pessoa como parte dos requisitos para obtenção do grau de Mestre em Medicina Dentária

Combined analysis of categorical and numerical descriptors of Australian groundnut accessions using nonlinear principal component analysis

For users of germplasm collections, the purpose of measuring characterization and evaluation descriptors, and subsequently using statistical methodology to summarize the data, is not only to interpret the relationships between the descriptors, but also to characterize the differences and similarities between accessions in relation to their phenotypic variability for each of the measured descriptors. The set of descriptors for the accessions of most germplasm collections consists of both numerical and categorical descriptors. This poses problems for a combined analysis of all descriptors because few statistical techniques deal with mixtures of measurement types. In this article, nonlinear principal component analysis was used to analyze the descriptors of the accessions in the Australian groundnut collection. It was demonstrated that the nonlinear variant of ordinary principal component analysis is an appropriate analytical tool because subspecies and botanical varieties could be identified on the basis of the analysis and characterized in terms of all descriptors. Moreover, outlying accessions could be easily spotted and their characteristics established. The statistical results and their interpretations provide users with a more efficient way to identify accessions of potential relevance for their plant improvement programs and encourage and improve the usefulness and utilization of germplasm collections.

Summarising and reporting sugarcane locomotive run statistics from TOTools and GPS data

The majority of sugar mill locomotives are equipped with GPS devices from which locomotive position data is stored. Locomotive run information (e.g. start times, run destinations and activities) is electronically stored in software called TOTools. The latest software development allows TOTools to interpret historical GPS information by combining this data with run information recorded in TOTools and geographic information from a GIS application called MapInfo. As a result, TOTools is capable of summarising run activity details such as run start and finish times and shunt activities with great accuracy. This paper presents 15 reports developed to summarise run activities and speed information. The reports will be of use pre-season to assist in developing the next year's schedule and for determining priorities for investment in the track infrastructure. They will also be of benefit during the season to closely monitor locomotive run performance against the existing schedule.

Rank regression for accelerated failure time model with clustered and censored data

For clustered survival data, the traditional Gehan-type estimator is asymptotically equivalent to using only the between-cluster ranks, and the within-cluster ranks are ignored. The contribution of this paper is two fold: - (i) incorporating within-cluster ranks in censored data analysis, and; - (ii) applying the induced smoothing of Brown and Wang (2005, Biometrika) for computational convenience. Asymptotic properties of the resulting estimating functions are given. We also carry out numerical studies to assess the performance of the proposed approach and conclude that the proposed approach can lead to much improved estimators when strong clustering effects exist. A dataset from a litter-matched tumorigenesis experiment is used for illustration.

Optimal simultaneous maximum a posterioriestimation of states, noise statistics and parameters II. Numerical performance

A very general and numerically quite robust algorithm has been proposed by Sastry and Gauvrit (1980) for system identification. The present paper takes it up and examines its performance on a real test example. The example considered is the lateral dynamics of an aircraft. This is used as a vehicle for demonstrating the performance of various aspects of the algorithm in several possible modes.

Curvature and wrinkling of premixed flame kernels-comparisons of OH PLIF and DNS data

The effects of curvature and wrinkling on the growth of turbulent premixed flame kernels were studied using both two-dimensional OH Planar Laser-Induced Fluorescence (PLIF) and three-dimensional Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS). Comparisons of results between the two approaches showed a high level of agreement, providing confidence in the simplified chemistry treatment employed in the DNS, and indicating that chemistry might have only a limited influence on the evolution of the freely propagating flame. The usefulness of PLIF in providing data over a wide parameter range was illustrated using statistics obtained from both CH4/air and H2/air mixtures, which show markedly different behavior due to their different thermo-diffusive properties. The results provided a demonstration of the combined power of PLIF and DNS for flame investigation. Each technique compensate for the weaknesses of the other, and to reinforce the strengths of both.

Statistics and modelling of turbulent kinetic energy transport in different regimes of premixed combustion

The statistical behaviour of turbulent kinetic energy transport in turbulent premixed flames is analysed using data from three-dimensional Direct Numerical Simulation (DNS) of freely propagating turbulent premixed flames under decaying turbulence. For flames within the corrugated flamelets regime, it is observed that turbulent kinetic energy is generated within the flame brush. By contrast, for flames within the thin reaction zones regime it has been found that the turbulent kinetic energy decays monotonically through the flame brush. Similar trends are observed also for the dissipation rate of turbulent kinetic energy. Within the corrugated flamelets regime, it is demonstrated that the effects of the mean pressure gradient and pressure dilatation within the flame are sufficient to overcome the effects of viscous dissipation and are responsible for the observed augmentation of turbulent kinetic energy in the flame brush. In the thin reaction zones regime, the effects of the mean pressure gradient and pressure dilatation terms are relatively much weaker than those of viscous dissipation, resulting in a monotonic decay of turbulent kinetic energy across the flame brush. The modelling of the various unclosed terms of the turbulent kinetic energy transport equation has been analysed in detail. The predictions of existing models are compared with corresponding quantities extracted from DNS data. Based on this a-priori DNS assessment, either appropriate models are identified or new models are proposed where necessary. It is shown that the turbulent flux of turbulent kinetic energy exhibits counter-gradient (gradient) transport wherever the turbulent scalar flux is counter-gradient (gradient) in nature. A new model has been proposed for the turbulent flux of turbulent kinetic energy, and is found to capture the qualitative and quantitative behaviour obtained from DNS data for both the corrugated flamelets and thin reaction zones regimes without the need to adjust any of the model constants. © 2010 Springer Science+Business Media B.V.

Advances in sequential data assimilation and numerical weather forecasting: an Ensemble Transform Kalman-Bucy Filter, a study on clustering in deterministic Ensemble Square Root Filters, and a test of a new time stepping scheme in an atmospheric model

This dissertation deals with aspects of sequential data assimilation (in particular ensemble Kalman filtering) and numerical weather forecasting. In the first part, the recently formulated Ensemble Kalman-Bucy (EnKBF) filter is revisited. It is shown that the previously used numerical integration scheme fails when the magnitude of the background error covariance grows beyond that of the observational error covariance in the forecast window. Therefore, we present a suitable integration scheme that handles the stiffening of the differential equations involved and doesn’t represent further computational expense. Moreover, a transform-based alternative to the EnKBF is developed: under this scheme, the operations are performed in the ensemble space instead of in the state space. Advantages of this formulation are explained. For the first time, the EnKBF is implemented in an atmospheric model. The second part of this work deals with ensemble clustering, a phenomenon that arises when performing data assimilation using of deterministic ensemble square root filters in highly nonlinear forecast models. Namely, an M-member ensemble detaches into an outlier and a cluster of M-1 members. Previous works may suggest that this issue represents a failure of EnSRFs; this work dispels that notion. It is shown that ensemble clustering can be reverted also due to nonlinear processes, in particular the alternation between nonlinear expansion and compression of the ensemble for different regions of the attractor. Some EnSRFs that use random rotations have been developed to overcome this issue; these formulations are analyzed and their advantages and disadvantages with respect to common EnSRFs are discussed. The third and last part contains the implementation of the Robert-Asselin-Williams (RAW) filter in an atmospheric model. The RAW filter is an improvement to the widely popular Robert-Asselin filter that successfully suppresses spurious computational waves while avoiding any distortion in the mean value of the function. Using statistical significance tests both at the local and field level, it is shown that the climatology of the SPEEDY model is not modified by the changed time stepping scheme; hence, no retuning of the parameterizations is required. It is found the accuracy of the medium-term forecasts is increased by using the RAW filter.

An integrated study of urban microclimates in Chongqing, China: historical weather data, transverse measurement and numerical simulation

Chongqing is the largest central-government-controlled municipality in China, which is now under going a rapid urbanization. The question remains open: What are the consequences of such rapid urbanization in Chongqing in terms of urban microclimates? An integrated study comprising three different research approaches is adopted in the present paper. By analyzing the observed annual climate data, an average rising trend of 0.10◦C/decade was found for the annual mean temperature from 1951 to 2010 in Chongqing,indicating a higher degree of urban warming in Chongqing. In addition, two complementary types of field measurements were conducted: fixed weather stations and mobile transverse measurement. Numerical simulations using a house-developed program are able to predict the urban air temperature in Chongqing.The urban heat island intensity in Chongqing is stronger in summer compared to autumn and winter.The maximum urban heat island intensity occurs at around midnight, and can be as high as 2.5◦C. In the day time, an urban cool island exists. Local greenery has a great impact on the local thermal environment.Urban green spaces can reduce urban air temperature and therefore mitigate the urban heat island. The cooling effect of an urban river is limited in Chongqing, as both sides of the river are the most developed areas, but the relative humidity is much higher near the river compared with the places far from it.