A tree-based decision model to support prediction of the severity of asthma exacerbations in children

This paper describes the development of a tree-based decision model to predict the severity of pediatric asthma exacerbations in the emergency department (ED) at 2 h following triage. The model was constructed from retrospective patient data abstracted from the ED charts. The original data was preprocessed to eliminate questionable patient records and to normalize values of age-dependent clinical attributes. The model uses attributes routinely collected in the ED and provides predictions even for incomplete observations. Its performance was verified on independent validating data (split-sample validation) where it demonstrated AUC (area under ROC curve) of 0.83, sensitivity of 84%, specificity of 71% and the Brier score of 0.18. The model is intended to supplement an asthma clinical practice guideline, however, it can be also used as a stand-alone decision tool.

Markovian Processes, Two-Sided Autoregressions and Finite-Sample Inference for Stationary and Nonstationary Autoregressive Processes.

In this paper, we develop finite-sample inference procedures for stationary and nonstationary autoregressive (AR) models. The method is based on special properties of Markov processes and a split-sample technique. The results on Markovian processes (intercalary independence and truncation) only require the existence of conditional densities. They are proved for possibly nonstationary and/or non-Gaussian multivariate Markov processes. In the context of a linear regression model with AR(1) errors, we show how these results can be used to simplify the distributional properties of the model by conditioning a subset of the data on the remaining observations. This transformation leads to a new model which has the form of a two-sided autoregression to which standard classical linear regression inference techniques can be applied. We show how to derive tests and confidence sets for the mean and/or autoregressive parameters of the model. We also develop a test on the order of an autoregression. We show that a combination of subsample-based inferences can improve the performance of the procedure. An application to U.S. domestic investment data illustrates the method.

Pretreatment Tables Predicting Pathologic Stage of Locally Advanced Prostate Cancer

BACKGROUND Pretreatment tables for the prediction of pathologic stage have been published and validated for localized prostate cancer (PCa). No such tables are available for locally advanced (cT3a) PCa. OBJECTIVE To construct tables predicting pathologic outcome after radical prostatectomy (RP) for patients with cT3a PCa with the aim to help guide treatment decisions in clinical practice. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS This was a multicenter retrospective cohort study including 759 consecutive patients with cT3a PCa treated with RP between 1987 and 2010. INTERVENTION Retropubic RP and pelvic lymphadenectomy. OUTCOME MEASUREMENTS AND STATISTICAL ANALYSIS Patients were divided into pretreatment prostate-specific antigen (PSA) and biopsy Gleason score (GS) subgroups. These parameters were used to construct tables predicting pathologic outcome and the presence of positive lymph nodes (LNs) after RP for cT3a PCa using ordinal logistic regression. RESULTS AND LIMITATIONS In the model predicting pathologic outcome, the main effects of biopsy GS and pretreatment PSA were significant. A higher GS and/or higher PSA level was associated with a more unfavorable pathologic outcome. The validation procedure, using a repeated split-sample method, showed good predictive ability. Regression analysis also showed an increasing probability of positive LNs with increasing PSA levels and/or higher GS. Limitations of the study are the retrospective design and the long study period. CONCLUSIONS These novel tables predict pathologic stage after RP for patients with cT3a PCa based on pretreatment PSA level and biopsy GS. They can be used to guide decision making in men with locally advanced PCa. PATIENT SUMMARY Our study might provide physicians with a useful tool to predict pathologic stage in locally advanced prostate cancer that might help select patients who may need multimodal treatment.

Psychometric properties of the drinking expectancy questionnaire: A review of the factor structure and a proposed new scoring method

Objective: Expectancies about the outcomes of alcohol consumption are widely accepted as important determinants of drinking. This construct is increasingly recognized as a significant element of psychological interventions for alcohol-related problems. Much effort has been invested in producing reliable and valid instruments to measure this construct for research and clinical purposes, but very few have had their factor structure subjected to adequate validation. Among them, the Drinking Expectancies Questionnaire (DEQ) was developed to address some theoretical and design issues with earlier expectancy scales. Exploratory factor analyses, in addition to validity and reliability analyses, were performed when the original questionnaire was developed. The object of this study was to undertake a confirmatory analysis of the factor structure of the DEQ. Method: Confirmatory factor analysis through LISREL 8 was performed using a randomly split sample of 679 drinkers. Results: Results suggested that a new 5-factor model, which differs slightly from the original 6-factor version, was a more robust measure of expectancies. A new method of scoring the DEQ consistent with this factor structure is presented. Conclusions: The present study shows more robust psychometric properties of the DEQ using the new factor structure.

An experiment on the parameter uncertainty of hydrological models with different levels of complexity in a climate change context

La possibilité d’estimer l’impact du changement climatique en cours sur le comportement hydrologique des hydro-systèmes est une nécessité pour anticiper les adaptations inévitables et nécessaires que doivent envisager nos sociétés. Dans ce contexte, ce projet doctoral présente une étude sur l’évaluation de la sensibilité des projections hydrologiques futures à : (i) La non-robustesse de l’identification des paramètres des modèles hydrologiques, (ii) l’utilisation de plusieurs jeux de paramètres équifinaux et (iii) l’utilisation de différentes structures de modèles hydrologiques. Pour quantifier l’impact de la première source d’incertitude sur les sorties des modèles, quatre sous-périodes climatiquement contrastées sont tout d’abord identifiées au sein des chroniques observées. Les modèles sont calés sur chacune de ces quatre périodes et les sorties engendrées sont analysées en calage et en validation en suivant les quatre configurations du Different Splitsample Tests (Klemeš, 1986;Wilby, 2005; Seiller et al. (2012);Refsgaard et al. (2014)). Afin d’étudier la seconde source d’incertitude liée à la structure du modèle, l’équifinalité des jeux de paramètres est ensuite prise en compte en considérant pour chaque type de calage les sorties associées à des jeux de paramètres équifinaux. Enfin, pour évaluer la troisième source d’incertitude, cinq modèles hydrologiques de différents niveaux de complexité sont appliqués (GR4J, MORDOR, HSAMI, SWAT et HYDROTEL) sur le bassin versant québécois de la rivière Au Saumon. Les trois sources d’incertitude sont évaluées à la fois dans conditions climatiques observées passées et dans les conditions climatiques futures. Les résultats montrent que, en tenant compte de la méthode d’évaluation suivie dans ce doctorat, l’utilisation de différents niveaux de complexité des modèles hydrologiques est la principale source de variabilité dans les projections de débits dans des conditions climatiques futures. Ceci est suivi par le manque de robustesse de l’identification des paramètres. Les projections hydrologiques générées par un ensemble de jeux de paramètres équifinaux sont proches de celles associées au jeu de paramètres optimal. Par conséquent, plus d’efforts devraient être investis dans l’amélioration de la robustesse des modèles pour les études d’impact sur le changement climatique, notamment en développant les structures des modèles plus appropriés et en proposant des procédures de calage qui augmentent leur robustesse. Ces travaux permettent d’apporter une réponse détaillée sur notre capacité à réaliser un diagnostic des impacts des changements climatiques sur les ressources hydriques du bassin Au Saumon et de proposer une démarche méthodologique originale d’analyse pouvant être directement appliquée ou adaptée à d’autres contextes hydro-climatiques.

Analyse de sensibilité d’un multimodèle hydrologique

Les enjeux hydrologiques modernes, de prévisions ou liés aux changements climatiques, forcent l’exploration de nouvelles approches en modélisation afin de combler les lacunes actuelles et d’améliorer l’évaluation des incertitudes. L’approche abordée dans ce mémoire est celle du multimodèle (MM). L’innovation se trouve dans la construction du multimodèle présenté dans cette étude : plutôt que de caler individuellement des modèles et d’utiliser leur combinaison, un calage collectif est réalisé sur la moyenne des 12 modèles globaux conceptuels sélectionnés. Un des défis soulevés par cette approche novatrice est le grand nombre de paramètres (82) qui complexifie le calage et l’utilisation, en plus d’entraîner des problèmes potentiels d’équifinalité. La solution proposée dans ce mémoire est une analyse de sensibilité qui permettra de fixer les paramètres peu influents et d’ainsi réduire le nombre de paramètres total à caler. Une procédure d’optimisation avec calage et validation permet ensuite d’évaluer les performances du multimodèle et de sa version réduite en plus d’en améliorer la compréhension. L’analyse de sensibilité est réalisée avec la méthode de Morris, qui permet de présenter une version du MM à 51 paramètres (MM51) tout aussi performante que le MM original à 82 paramètres et présentant une diminution des problèmes potentiels d’équifinalité. Les résultats du calage et de la validation avec le « Split-Sample Test » (SST) du MM sont comparés avec les 12 modèles calés individuellement. Il ressort de cette analyse que les modèles individuels, composant le MM, présentent de moins bonnes performances que ceux calés indépendamment. Cette baisse de performances individuelles, nécessaire pour obtenir de bonnes performances globales du MM, s’accompagne d’une hausse de la diversité des sorties des modèles du MM. Cette dernière est particulièrement requise pour les applications hydrologiques nécessitant une évaluation des incertitudes. Tous ces résultats mènent à une amélioration de la compréhension du multimodèle et à son optimisation, ce qui facilite non seulement son calage, mais également son utilisation potentielle en contexte opérationnel.

Can Remotely Sensed Meteorological Data Significantly Contribute to Reduce Costs of Tsetse Surveys?

A 0.125 degree raster or grid-based Geographic Information System with data on tsetse, trypanosomosis, animal production, agriculture and land use has recently been developed in Togo. This paper addresses the problem of generating tsetse distribution and abundance maps from remotely sensed data, using a restricted amount of field data. A discriminant analysis model is tested using contemporary tsetse data and remotely sensed, low resolution data acquired from the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration and Meteosat platforms. A split sample technique is adopted where a randomly selected part of the field measured data (training set) serves to predict the other part (predicted set). The obtained results are then compared with field measured data per corresponding grid-square. Depending on the size of the training set the percentage of concording predictions varies from 80 to 95 for distribution figures and from 63 to 74 for abundance. These results confirm the potential of satellite data application and multivariate analysis for the prediction, not only of the tsetse distribution, but more importantly of their abundance. This opens up new avenues because satellite predictions and field data may be combined to strengthen or substitute one another and thus reduce costs of field surveys.

Instrumental leadership: Measurement and extension of transformational-transactional leadership theory.

Leaders must scan the internal and external environment, chart strategic and task objectives, and provide performance feedback. These instrumental leadership (IL) functions go beyond the motivational and quid-pro quo leader behaviors that comprise the full-range-transformational, transactional, and laissez faire-leadership model. In four studies we examined the construct validity of IL. We found evidence for a four-factor IL model that was highly prototypical of good leadership. IL predicted top-level leader emergence controlling for the full-range factors, initiating structure, and consideration. It also explained unique variance in outcomes beyond the full-range factors; the effects of transformational leadership were vastly overstated when IL was omitted from the model. We discuss the importance of a "fuller full-range" leadership theory for theory and practice. We also showcase our methodological contributions regarding corrections for common method variance (i.e., endogeneity) bias using two-stage least squares (2SLS) regression and Monte Carlo split-sample designs.

Identification, Weak Instruments and Statistical Inference in Econometrics

We discuss statistical inference problems associated with identification and testability in econometrics, and we emphasize the common nature of the two issues. After reviewing the relevant statistical notions, we consider in turn inference in nonparametric models and recent developments on weakly identified models (or weak instruments). We point out that many hypotheses, for which test procedures are commonly proposed, are not testable at all, while some frequently used econometric methods are fundamentally inappropriate for the models considered. Such situations lead to ill-defined statistical problems and are often associated with a misguided use of asymptotic distributional results. Concerning nonparametric hypotheses, we discuss three basic problems for which such difficulties occur: (1) testing a mean (or a moment) under (too) weak distributional assumptions; (2) inference under heteroskedasticity of unknown form; (3) inference in dynamic models with an unlimited number of parameters. Concerning weakly identified models, we stress that valid inference should be based on proper pivotal functions —a condition not satisfied by standard Wald-type methods based on standard errors — and we discuss recent developments in this field, mainly from the viewpoint of building valid tests and confidence sets. The techniques discussed include alternative proposed statistics, bounds, projection, split-sampling, conditioning, Monte Carlo tests. The possibility of deriving a finite-sample distributional theory, robustness to the presence of weak instruments, and robustness to the specification of a model for endogenous explanatory variables are stressed as important criteria assessing alternative procedures.

Influência do número de espermatozóides na dose e do refluxo pós-inseminação sobre o desempenho reprodutivo de fêmeas suínas inseminadas intrauterinamente.

O presente trabalho objetivou avaliar o efeito do número de espermatozóides na dose inseminante sobre a taxa de prenhez (TPr) e no número de embriões de fêmeas suínas inseminadas pela técnica intra-uterina (IAU), em uma única inseminação (IA), efetuada no intervalo de até 24 horas antes da ovulação, considerando o refluxo de sêmen pós-inseminação. Foram utilizadas 211 fêmeas pluríparas híbridas (Landrace x Large White), com ordem de parto variando de dois a nove e intervalo desmame-estro de dois a seis dias. O diagnóstico de estro foi realizado duas vezes ao dia. Foram utilizadas doses com volume total de 20 ml contendo 0,25 x 109 (tratamento 1), 0,5 x 109 (tratamento 2) ou 1,0 x 109 (tratamento 3) espermatozóides diluídos em Beltsville Thawing Solution (BTS) produzidas em “split sample”. Quatro machos híbridos (Landrace x Large White x Pietrain) foram utilizados como doadores de sêmen. Foi acompanhada a motilidade (MOT) de uma dose de 100 ml contendo 2,5 x 109 espermatozóides proveniente de cada coleta de sêmen com a finalidade de avaliar a viabilidade espermática durante as 240 horas de armazenamento a 17°C. A coleta do refluxo vulvar, até 60 minutos após a IAU foi realizada com bolsas de colostomia descartáveis fixadas na região peri-vulvar. A determinação do número de espermatozóides contidos no refluxo foi realizada em câmara hemocitométrica. O diagnóstico de gestação foi realizado aos 20-23 dias com auxílio da ultra-sonografia transcutânea em tempo real. As fêmeas prenhes foram abatidas 34-41 dias após a IAU, onde foram coletados o útero e os ovários para contagem dos corpos lúteos e embriões. A passagem do cateter foi possível em todas as fêmeas. Não houve refluxo no momento da realização da IAU. Não houve diferença (P>0,05) no percentual de volume (pvol) e de espermatozóides (psptz) refluídos até 60 minutos após a IAU entre os três tratamentos. O baixo (inferior a 15%) ou alto (superior a 15%) psptz refluídos não influenciou a TPr, mas houve correlação negativa (P=0,0003; R=-0,34) do psptz refluídos com o número de embriões totais (NET). Não houve refluxo em apenas oito fêmeas e a amplitude do pvol variou de 0-136%. No presente trabalho, a MOT das doses inseminantes foi semelhante entre os quatro machos (P>0,05). A TPr não diferiu entre os tratamentos (P=0,36) porém foram verificadas diferenças (P<0,05) entre os machos dentro de cada tratamento. A redução na taxa de prenhez foi mais acentuada para o macho D, quando foram utilizadas doses com menor número de espermatozóides. Não houve efeito do macho ou da interação macho com tratamento sobre o número de embriões (P>0,05). O NET e viáveis diferiu entre o T1 e T2 (P<0,05). Utilizando-se apenas uma única inseminação intra-uterina no intervalo de até 24 horas antes da ovulação com 0,5 x 109 espermatozóides, é possível alcançar índices superiores a 85% de prenhez e 14 embriões, aos 34-41 dias de gestação.

A Framework for Design-Time Testing of Service-Based Applications at BPEL Level

Software applications created on top of the service-oriented architecture (SOA) are increasingly popular but testing them remains a challenge. In this paper a framework named TASSA for testing the functional and non-functional behaviour of service-based applications is presented. The paper focuses on the concept of design time testing, the corresponding testing approach and architectural integration of the consisting TASSA tools. The individual TASSA tools with sample validation scenarios were already presented with a general view of their relation. This paper’s contribution is the structured testing approach, based on the integral use of the tools and their architectural integration. The framework is based on SOA principles and is composable depending on user requirements.

STATISTICAL METHODS FOR ADVANCED ECONOMETRIC MODELS WITH APPLICATIONS TO VEHICLE HOLDING AND SPEED QUANTILES DISTRIBUTION

This dissertation proposes statistical methods to formulate, estimate and apply complex transportation models. Two main problems are part of the analyses conducted and presented in this dissertation. The first method solves an econometric problem and is concerned with the joint estimation of models that contain both discrete and continuous decision variables. The use of ordered models along with a regression is proposed and their effectiveness is evaluated with respect to unordered models. Procedure to calculate and optimize the log-likelihood functions of both discrete-continuous approaches are derived, and difficulties associated with the estimation of unordered models explained. Numerical approximation methods based on the Genz algortithm are implemented in order to solve the multidimensional integral associated with the unordered modeling structure. The problems deriving from the lack of smoothness of the probit model around the maximum of the log-likelihood function, which makes the optimization and the calculation of standard deviations very difficult, are carefully analyzed. A methodology to perform out-of-sample validation in the context of a joint model is proposed. Comprehensive numerical experiments have been conducted on both simulated and real data. In particular, the discrete-continuous models are estimated and applied to vehicle ownership and use models on data extracted from the 2009 National Household Travel Survey. The second part of this work offers a comprehensive statistical analysis of free-flow speed distribution; the method is applied to data collected on a sample of roads in Italy. A linear mixed model that includes speed quantiles in its predictors is estimated. Results show that there is no road effect in the analysis of free-flow speeds, which is particularly important for model transferability. A very general framework to predict random effects with few observations and incomplete access to model covariates is formulated and applied to predict the distribution of free-flow speed quantiles. The speed distribution of most road sections is successfully predicted; jack-knife estimates are calculated and used to explain why some sections are poorly predicted. Eventually, this work contributes to the literature in transportation modeling by proposing econometric model formulations for discrete-continuous variables, more efficient methods for the calculation of multivariate normal probabilities, and random effects models for free-flow speed estimation that takes into account the survey design. All methods are rigorously validated on both real and simulated data.

Análisis de las sanciones internacionales en el marco del tratado de no proliferación nuclear. Estudio de caso: energía atómica en Irán (2006-2015)

El presente trabajo de Grado tiene como propósito examinar la incidencia de las sancionesinternacionales en el marco del régimen de no proliferación nuclear en el caso de Irán durante el periodo 2006-2015, teniendo en cuenta factores históricos de años anteriores. Se analiza y explica cómo las sanciones internacionales pueden ser una medida persuasiva por violar ciertos artículos del Tratado de no Proliferación Nuclear. Finalmente identifica y analiza los tipos de sanciones económicas, financieras y comerciales que los Estados y el Consejo de Seguridad de las Naciones Unidas le han impuesto a Irán, así como la manera en que estas han incidido en la esfera política iraní y mundial.

"Ancestry, gender and language - The role of culture in economic development"

This thesis is a combination of research questions in development economics and economics of culture, with an emphasis on the role of ancestry, gender and language policies in shaping inequality of opportunities and socio-economic outcomes across different segments of a society. The first chapter shows both theoretically and empirically that heterogeneity in risk attitudes can be traced to the ethnic origins and ancestral way of living. In particular, I construct a measure of historical nomadism at the ethnicity level and link it to contemporary individual-level data on various proxies of risk attitudes. I exploit exogenous variation in biodiversity to build a novel instrument for nomadism: distance to domestication points. I find that descendants of ethnic groups that historically practiced nomadism (i) are more willing to take risks, (ii) value security less, and (iii) have riskier health behavior. The second chapter evaluates the nature of a trade-off between the advantages of female labor participation and the positive effects of female education. This work exploits a triple difference identification strategy relying on exogenous spike in cotton price and spatial variation in suitability for cotton, and split sample analyses based on the exogenous allocation of land contracts. Results show that gender differences in parental investments in patriarchal societies can be reinforced by the type of agricultural activity, while positive economic shocks may further exacerbate this bias, additionally crowding out higher possibilities to invest in female education. The third chapter brings novel evidence of the role of the language policy in building national sentiments, affecting educational and occupational choices. Here I focus on the case of Uzbekistan and estimate the effects of exposure to the Latin alphabet on informational literacy, education and career choices. I show that alphabet change affects people's informational literacy and the formation of certain educational and labour market trends.

Validation of the Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale for men, and comparison of item endorsement with their partners

Background: The Edinburgh Postnatal Depression Scale (EPDS) has been validated and used extensively in screening for depression in new mothers, both in English speaking and non-English speaking communities. While some studies have reported the use of the EPDS with Fathers, none have validated it for this group, and thus the appropriate cut-off score for screening for depression or anxiety caseness for this population is not known. Method: Couples were recruited antenatally and interviewed at six weeks postpartum. EPDS scores and distress caseness (depression or anxiety disorders) for 208 fathers and 230 mothers were determined using the Diagnostic Interview Schedule. Results: Analyses of the EPDS for fathers using distress caseness (depression or anxiety disorders) as the criterion shows that a cut-off of 5/6 has optimum receiver operating characteristics. Furthermore acceptable reliability (split-half and internal consistency) and validity (concurrent) coefficients were obtained. For mothers the optimum cut-off screening value to detect distress caseness was 7/8. Item analysis revealed that fathers endorsed seven of the ten items at lower rates to mothers, with the most significant being that referring to crying. Conclusions: The EPDS is a reliable and valid measure of mood in fathers. Screening for depression or anxiety disorders in fathers requires a two point lower cut-off than screening for depression or anxiety in mothers, and we recommend this cut-off to he 5/6. (C) 2001 Elsevier Science B.V. All rights reserved.