The performance of models relating species geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level

Brian Huntley, Rhys E. Green, Yvonne C. Collingham, Jane K. Hill, Stephen G. Willis , Patrick J. Bartlein, Wolfgang Cramer, Ward J. M. Hagemeijer and Christopher J. Thomas (2004). The performance of models relating species geographical distributions to climate is independent of trophic level. Ecology Letters, 7(5), 417-426. Sponsorship: NERC (awards: GR9/3016, GR9/04270, GR3/12542, NER/F/S/2000/00166) / RSPB RAE2008

Sensitivity distributions and cross-resistance patterns of Mycosphaerella graminicola to fluquinconazole, prochloraz and azoxystrobin over a period of nine years

The sensitivity of 73 isolates of Mycosphaerella graminicola collected over the period 1993–2002 from wheat fields in South England was tested in vitro against the triazole fluquinconazole, the strobilurin azoxystrobin and to the imidazole prochloraz. Over the sampling period, sensitivity of the population to fluquinconazole and prochloraz decreased by factors of approximately 10 and 2, respectively, but there was no evidence of changes in sensitivity to azoxystrobin. There was no correlation between sensitivity to fluquinconazole and prochloraz, but there was a weak negative cross-resistance between fluquinconazole and azoxystrobin.

Derivation of soil screening values for metals in Portuguese natural soil

The increasing human activity has been responsible by profound changes and a constinuos degradation of the soil compartment in all the European territory. Some European policies are appearing focusing soil’s protection and the management of contaminated sites, in order to recover land for other uses. To regulate the risk assessment and the management of contaminated soils, many European member states adopted soil guideline values, as for example soil screnning values (SSV).These values are particularly useful for the the first tier of the Ecological Risk Assessment (ERA) processes of contaminated sites,especially for a first screening of sites requiring a more site-specific evaluation. Hence, the approriate definition of regional SSVs will have relevant economic impacts in the management of contaminated sites. Portugal is one of European Member States that still lack these soil guideline values. In this context, this study gaves a remarkable contribution in the generation of ecotoxicological data for soil microbiological parameters, terrestrial plants and invertebrates for the derivation of SSVs for uranium (U), cadmium (Cd) and copper (Cu), using a Portuguese natural soil, representative of a dominant type of soil in the Portuguese territory. SSVs were derived based on two methods proposed by the the Technical Guidance Document for Risk Assessment of the European Commission; namely the assessment factor method (AF) and the species sensitivity distribution (SSD) method (with some adaptations). The outputs of both methods were compared and discussed. Further, this study laid the foundation for a deeper reflection about the cut-off (hazard concentration for a given percentage of species - HCps) to be estimated from the SSDs, and to be selected for the derivation of SSVs, with the adequate level of protection. It was proven that this selection may vary for different contaminants, however a clear justification should be given, in each case. The SSvs proposed in this study were for: U (151.4 mg U kg-1dw), Cd (5.6 mg Cd kg-1dw), and Cu (58.5 mg Cu kg-1dw) These values should now be tested for their descriminating power of soils with different levels of contamination. However, this studies clarifies the approach that should be followed for the derivation of SSVs for other metals and organic contaminants, and for other dominant types of Portuguese natural soils.

The extrapolation problem and how population modeling can help

We argue that population modeling can add value to ecological risk assessment by reducing uncertainty when extrapolating from ecotoxicological observations to relevant ecological effects. We review other methods of extrapolation, ranging from application factors to species sensitivity distributions to suborganismal (biomarker and "-omics'') responses to quantitative structure activity relationships and model ecosystems, drawing attention to the limitations of each. We suggest a simple classification of population models and critically examine each model in an extrapolation context. We conclude that population models have the potential for adding value to ecological risk assessment by incorporating better understanding of the links between individual responses and population size and structure and by incorporating greater levels of ecological complexity. A number of issues, however, need to be addressed before such models are likely to become more widely used. In a science context, these involve challenges in parameterization, questions about appropriate levels of complexity, issues concerning how specific or general the models need to be, and the extent to which interactions through competition and trophic relationships can be easily incorporated.

Environmental correlates of species rank − abundance distributions in global drylands

Theoretical models predict lognormal species abundance distributions (SADs) in stable and productive environments, with log-series SADs in less stable, dispersal driven communities. We studied patterns of relative species abundances of perennial vascular plants in global dryland communities to: (i) assess the influence of climatic and soil characteristics on the observed SADs, (ii) infer how environmental variability influences relative abundances, and (iii) evaluate how colonisation dynamics and environmental filters shape abundance distributions. We fitted lognormal and log-series SADs to 91 sites containing at least 15 species of perennial vascular plants. The dependence of species relative abundances on soil and climate variables was assessed using general linear models. Irrespective of habitat type and latitude, the majority of the SADs (70.3%) were best described by a lognormal distribution. Lognormal SADs were associated with low annual precipitation, higher aridity, high soil carbon content, and higher variability of climate variables and soil nitrate. Our results do not corroborate models predicting the prevalence of log-series SADs in dryland communities. As lognormal SADs were particularly associated with sites with drier conditions and a higher environmental variability, we reject models linking lognormality to environmental stability and high productivity conditions. Instead our results point to the prevalence of lognormal SADs in heterogeneous environments, allowing for more evenly distributed plant communities, or in stressful ecosystems, which are generally shaped by strong habitat filters and limited colonisation. This suggests that drylands may be resilient to environmental changes because the many species with intermediate relative abundances could take over ecosystem functioning if the environment becomes suboptimal for dominant species.

A method to assess the sensitivity of sedimentary communities to fishing activities.

1.Methods of sensitivity assessment to identify species and habitats in need of management or protection have been available since the 1970s. 2.The approach to sensitivity assessment adopted by the Marine Life Information Network (MarLIN) assumes that the sensitivity of a community or biotope is dependent on the species within it. However, the application of this approach to sedimentary communities, especially offshore, is complex because of a lack of knowledge of the structural or functional role of many sedimentary species. 3.This paper describes a method to assess the overall sensitivity of sedimentary communities, based on the intolerance and recoverability of component species to physical disturbance. A range of methods were applied to identify the best combinations of abundant, dominant or high biomass species for the assessment of sensitivity in the sedimentary communities examined. 4.Results showed that reporting the most frequent species' sensitivity assessment, irrespective of the four methods used to select species, consistently underestimated the total sensitivity of the community. In contrast, reporting the most sensitive assessment from those species selected resulted in a range of biotope sensitivities from very low to very high, that was better able to discriminate between the sensitivities of the communities examined. 5.The assumptions behind the methodology, its limitations and potential application are discussed.

The broad-scale distribution of five jellyfish species across a temperate coastal environment

Jellyfish (medusae) are sometimes the most noticeable and abundant members of coastal planktonic communities, yet ironically, this high conspicuousness is not reflected in our overall understanding of their spatial distributions across large expanses of water. Here, we set out to elucidate the spatial (and temporal) patterns for five jellyfish species (Phylum Cnidaria, Orders Rhizostomeae and Semaeostomeae) across the Irish & Celtic Seas, an extensive shelf-sea area at Europe's northwesterly margin encompassing several thousand square kilometers. Data were gathered using two independent methods: (1) surface-counts of jellyfish from ships of opportunity, and (2) regular shoreline surveys for stranding events over three consecutive years. Jellyfish species displayed distinct species-specific distributions, with an apparent segregation of some species. Furthermore, a different species composition was noticeable between the northern and southern parts of the study area. Most importantly, our data suggests that jellyfish distributions broadly reflect the major hydrographic regimes (and associated physical discontinuities) of the study area, with mixed water masses possibly acting as a trophic barrier or non-favourable environment for the successful growth and reproduction of jellyfish species.

Opening the climate envelope reveals no macroscale associations with climate in European birds

Predicting how species distributions might shift as global climate changes is fundamental to the successful adaptation of conservation policy. An increasing number of studies have responded to this challenge by using climate envelopes, modeling the association between climate variables and species distributions. However, it is difficult to quantify how well species actually match climate. Here, we use null models to show that species-climate associations found by climate envelope methods are no better than chance for 68 of 100 European bird species. In line with predictions, we demonstrate that the species with distribution limits determined by climate have more northerly ranges. We conclude that scientific studies and climate change adaptation policies based on the indiscriminate use of climate envelope methods irrespective of species sensitivity to climate may be misleading and in need of revision.

Large-scale spatial patterns in the distribution of Collembola (Hexapoda) species in Antarctic terrestrial ecosystems

We tested whether the distribution of three common springtail species (Gressittacantha terranova, Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni and Friesea grisea) in Victoria Land (Antarctica) could be modelled as a function of latitude, longitude, altitude and distance from the sea.

Victoria Land, Ross Dependency, Antarctica.

Generalized linear models were constructed using species presence/absence data relative to geographical features (latitude, longitude, altitude, distance from sea) across the species' entire ranges. Model results were then integrated with the known phylogeography of each species and hypotheses were generated on the role of climate as a major driver of Antarctic springtail distribution.

Based on model selection using Akaike's information criterion, the species' distributions were: hump-shaped relative to longitude and monotonic with altitude for Gressittacantha terranova; hump-shaped relative to latitude and monotonic with altitude for Gomphiocephalus hodgsoni; and hump-shaped relative to longitude and monotonic with latitude, altitude and distance from the sea for Friesea grisea.

No single distributional pattern was shared by the three species. While distributions were partially a response to climatic spatial clines, the patterns observed strongly suggest that past geological events have influenced the observed distributions. Accordingly, present-day spatial patterns are likely to have arisen from the interaction of historical and environmental drivers. Future studies will need to integrate a range of spatial and temporal scales to further quantify their respective roles.

Endangered Species, Provincialism, and a Continental Approach to Bird Conservation

I examined lists of endangered species from northeastern and midwestern United States to assess the extent to which they were dominated by species considered rare due to their vulnerability to anthropogenic stressors or, instead, by species whose rarity might be explained otherwise. Northeastern states had longer species lists than midwestern states, and more species associated with locally rare prairie habitats. More species at the edge of their geographic range appeared on lists from the Northeast than the Midwest. About 70% of listed species overall have shown either no significant population trend, or increases, at the continental scale, but wetland and prairie species were frequently listed, consistent with the generally acknowledged, widespread loss of these habitats. Curiously, midwestern states tended to list fewer forest species, despite evidence that forest fragmentation there has had strongly deleterious effects on regional bird populations. Overall, species appear to be listed locally for a variety of reasons not necessarily related to their risk of extinction generally, potentially contributing to inefficient distributions of limited resources to deal effectively with species that legitimately require conservation attention. I advocate a continental perspective when listing species locally, and propose enhanced criteria for characterizing species as endangered at the local level.

Ecological traits affect the sensitivity of bees to land-use pressures in European agricultural landscapes

1. Bees are a functionally important and economically valuable group, but are threatened byland-use conversion and intensification. Such pressures are not expected to affect all species identically; rather, they are likely to be mediated by the species’ ecological traits. 2. Understanding which types of species are most vulnerable under which land uses is an important step towards effective conservation planning.3. We collated occurrence and abundance data for 257 bee species at 1584 European sites from surveys reported in 30 published papers (70 056 records) and combined them with species-level ecological trait data. We used mixed-effects models to assess the importance of land use (land-use class, agricultural use-intensity and a remotely-sensed measure of vegetation),traits and trait 9 land-use interactions, in explaining species occurrence and abundance.4. Species’ sensitivity to land use was most strongly influenced by flight season duration and foraging range, but also by niche breadth, reproductive strategy and phenology, with effects that differed among cropland, pastoral and urban habitats.5. Synthesis and applications. Rather than targeting particular species or settings, conservation action s may be more effective if focused on mitigating situations where species’ traits strongly and negatively interact with land-use pressures. We find evidence that low-intensity agriculture can maintain relatively diverse bee communities; in more intensive settings, added floral resources may be beneficial, but will require careful placement with respect to foraging ranges of smaller bee species. Protection of semi-natural habitats is essential, however; in particular, conversion to urban environments could have severe effects on bee diversity and pollination services. Our results highlight the importance of exploring how ecological traits mediate species responses to human impacts, but further research is needed to enhance the predictive ability of such analyses.

Using ecological niche modelling to infer past, present and future environmental suitability for Leiopelma hochstetteri, an endangered New Zealand native frog

Leiopelma hochstetteri is an endangered New Zealand frog now confined to isolated populations scattered across the North Island. A better understanding of its past, current and predicted future environmental suitability will contribute to its conservation which is in jeopardy due to human activities, feral predators, disease and climate change. Here we use ecological niche modelling with all known occurrence data (N = 1708) and six determinant environmental variables to elucidate current, pre-human and future environmental suitability of this species. Comparison among independent runs, subfossil records and a clamping method allow validation of models. Many areas identified as currently suitable do not host any known populations. This apparent discrepancy could be explained by several non exclusive hypotheses: the areas have not been adequately surveyed and undiscovered populations still remain, the model is over simplistic; the species` sensitivity to fragmentation and small population size; biotic interactions; historical events. An additional outcome is that apparently suitable, but frog-less areas could be targeted for future translocations. Surprisingly, pre-human conditions do not differ markedly highlighting the possibility that the range of the species was broadly fragmented before human arrival. Nevertheless, some populations, particularly on the west of the North Island may have disappeared as a result of human mediated habitat modification. Future conditions are marked with higher temperatures, which are predicted to be favourable to the species. However, such virtual gain in suitable range will probably not benefit the species given the highly fragmented nature of existing habitat and the low dispersal ability of this species. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.