Spatio-Temporal Tracking and Phylodynamics of an Urban Dengue 3 Outbreak in Sao Paulo, Brazil

The dengue virus has a single-stranded positive-sense RNA genome of similar to 10.700 nucleotides with a single open reading frame that encodes three structural (C, prM, and E) and seven nonstructural (NS1, NS2A, NS2B, NS3, NS4A, NS4B, and NS5) proteins. It possesses four antigenically distinct serotypes (DENV 1-4). Many phylogenetic studies address particularities of the different serotypes using convenience samples that are not conducive to a spatio-temporal analysis in a single urban setting. We describe the pattern of spread of distinct lineages of DENV-3 circulating in Sao Jose do Rio Preto, Brazil, during 2006. Blood samples from patients presenting dengue-like symptoms were collected for DENV testing. We performed M-N-PCR using primers based on NS5 for virus detection and identification. The fragments were purified from PCR mixtures and sequenced. The positive dengue cases were geo-coded. To type the sequenced samples, 52 reference sequences were aligned. The dataset generated was used for iterative phylogenetic reconstruction with the maximum likelihood criterion. The best demographic model, the rate of growth, rate of evolutionary change, and Time to Most Recent Common Ancestor (TMRCA) were estimated. The basic reproductive rate during the epidemics was estimated. We obtained sequences from 82 patients among 174 blood samples. We were able to geo-code 46 sequences. The alignment generated a 399-nucleotide-long dataset with 134 taxa. The phylogenetic analysis indicated that all samples were of DENV-3 and related to strains circulating on the isle of Martinique in 2000-2001. Sixty DENV-3 from Sao Jose do Rio Preto formed a monophyletic group (lineage 1), closely related to the remaining 22 isolates (lineage 2). We assumed that these lineages appeared before 2006 in different occasions. By transforming the inferred exponential growth rates into the basic reproductive rate, we obtained values for lineage 1 of R(0) = 1.53 and values for lineage 2 of R(0) = 1.13. Under the exponential model, TMRCA of lineage 1 dated 1 year and lineage 2 dated 3.4 years before the last sampling. The possibility of inferring the spatio-temporal dynamics from genetic data has been generally little explored, and it may shed light on DENV circulation. The use of both geographic and temporally structured phylogenetic data provided a detailed view on the spread of at least two dengue viral strains in a populated urban area.

Incidence rate and spatio-temporal clustering of type 1 diabetes in Santiago, Chile, from 1997 to 1998

OBJECTIVE: To estimate the incidence rate of type 1 diabetes in the urban area of Santiago, Chile, from March 21, 1997 to March 20, 1998, and to assess the spatio-temporal clustering of cases during that period. METHODS: All sixty-one incident cases were located temporally (day of diagnosis) and spatially (place of residence) in the area of study. Knox's method was used to assess spatio-temporal clustering of incident cases. RESULTS: The overall incidence rate of type 1 diabetes was 4.11 cases per 100,000 children aged less than 15 years per year (95% confidence interval: 3.06--5.14). The incidence rate seems to have increased since the last estimate of the incidence calculated for the years 1986--1992 in the metropolitan region of Santiago. Different combinations of space-time intervals have been evaluated to assess spatio-temporal clustering. The smallest p-value was found for the combination of critical distances of 750 meters and 60 days (uncorrected p-value = 0.048). CONCLUSIONS: Although these are preliminary results regarding space-time clustering in Santiago, exploratory analysis of the data method would suggest a possible aggregation of incident cases in space-time coordinates.

Spatio-temporal trends of mortality in small areas of Southern Spain

Background: Most mortality atlases show static maps from count data aggregated over time. This procedure has several methodological problems and serious limitations for decision making in Public Health. The evaluation of health outcomes, including mortality, should be approached from a dynamic time perspective that is specific for each gender and age group. At the moment, researches in Spain do not provide a dynamic image of the population’s mortality status from a spatio-temporal point of view. The aim of this paper is to describe the spatial distribution of mortality from all causes in small areas of Andalusia (Southern Spain) and evolution over time from 1981 to 2006. Methods: A small-area ecological study was devised using the municipality as the unit for analysis. Two spatiotemporal hierarchical Bayesian models were estimated for each age group and gender. One of these was used to estimate the specific mortality rate, together with its time trends, and the other to estimate the specific rate ratio for each municipality compared with Spain as a whole. Results: More than 97% of the municipalities showed a diminishing or flat mortality trend in all gender and age groups. In 2006, over 95% of municipalities showed male and female mortality specific rates similar or significantly lower than Spanish rates for all age groups below 65. Systematically, municipalities in Western Andalusia showed significant male and female mortality excess from 1981 to 2006 only in age groups over 65. Conclusions: The study shows a dynamic geographical distribution of mortality, with a different pattern for each year, gender and age group. This information will contribute towards a reflection on the past, present and future of mortality in Andalusia.

Semiparametric Latent Variable Regression Models for Spatio-temporal Modeling of Mobile Source Particles in the Greater Boston Area

Traffic particle concentrations show considerable spatial variability within a metropolitan area. We consider latent variable semiparametric regression models for modeling the spatial and temporal variability of black carbon and elemental carbon concentrations in the greater Boston area. Measurements of these pollutants, which are markers of traffic particles, were obtained from several individual exposure studies conducted at specific household locations as well as 15 ambient monitoring sites in the city. The models allow for both flexible, nonlinear effects of covariates and for unexplained spatial and temporal variability in exposure. In addition, the different individual exposure studies recorded different surrogates of traffic particles, with some recording only outdoor concentrations of black or elemental carbon, some recording indoor concentrations of black carbon, and others recording both indoor and outdoor concentrations of black carbon. A joint model for outdoor and indoor exposure that specifies a spatially varying latent variable provides greater spatial coverage in the area of interest. We propose a penalised spline formation of the model that relates to generalised kringing of the latent traffic pollution variable and leads to a natural Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithm for model fitting. We propose methods that allow us to control the degress of freedom of the smoother in a Bayesian framework. Finally, we present results from an analysis that applies the model to data from summer and winter separately

Spatio-temporal patterns of throughfall and solute deposition in an open tropical rain forest

The brief interaction of precipitation with a forest canopy can create a high spatial variability of both throughfall and solute deposition. We hypothesized that (i) the variability in natural forest systems is high but depends on system-inherent stability, (ii) the spatial variability of solute deposition shows seasonal dynamics depending on the increase in rainfall frequency, and (iii) spatial patterns persist only in the short-term. The study area in the north-western Brazilian state of Rondonia is subject to a climate with a distinct wet and dry season. We collected rain and throughfall on an event basis during the early wet season (n = 14) and peak of the wet season (n = 14) and analyzed the samples for pH and concentrations of NH4+, Na+, K+, Ca2+ Mg2+,, Cl-, NO3-, SO42- and DOC. The coefficient 3 4 cient of variation for throughfall based on both sampling intervals was 29%, which is at the lower end of values reported from other tropical forest sites, but which is higher than in most temperate forests. Coefficients of variation of solute deposition ranged from 29% to 52%. This heterogeneity of solute deposition is neither particularly high nor particularly tow compared with a range of tropical and temperate forest ecosystems. We observed an increase in solute deposition variability with the progressing wet season, which was explained by a negative correlation between heterogeneity of solute deposition and antecedent dry period. The temporal stability of throughfall. patterns was Low during the early wet season, but gained in stability as the wet season progressed. We suggest that rapid plant growth at the beginning of the rainy season is responsible for the lower stability, whereas less vegetative activity during the later rainy season might favor the higher persistence of ""hot"" and ""cold"" spots of throughfall. quantities. The relatively high stability of throughfall patterns during later stages of the wet season may influence processes at the forest floor and in the soil. Solute deposition patterns showed less clear trends but all patterns displayed a short-term stability only. The weak stability of those patterns is apt to impede the formation of solute deposition -induced biochemical microhabitats in the soil. (C) 2008 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal variability behavior of land surface soil water content in shrub- and grass-land

The knowledge of the relationship between spatial variability of the surface soil water content (theta) and its mean across a spatial domain (theta(m)) is crucial for hydrological modeling and understanding soil water dynamics at different scales. With the aim to compare the soil moisture dynamics and variability between the two land uses and to explore the relationship between the spatial variability of theta and theta(m), this study analyzed sets of surface theta measurements performed with an impedance soil moisture probe, collected 136 times during a period of one year in two transects covering different land uses, i.e., korshinsk peashrub transect (KPT) and bunge needlegrass transect (BNT), in a watershed of the Loess Plateau, China. Results showed that the temporal pattern of theta behaved similarly for the two land uses, with both relative wetter soils during wet period and relative drier soils during dry period recognized in BNT. Soil moisture tended to be temporally stable among different dates, and more stable patterns could be observed for dates with more similar soil water conditions. The magnitude of the spatial variation of theta in KPT was greater than that in ENT. For both land uses, the standard deviation (SD) of theta in general increased as theta(m) increased, a behavior that could be well described with a natural logarithmic function. Convex relationship of CV and theta(m) and the maximum CV for both land uses (43.5% in KPT and 41.0% in BNT) can, therefore, be ascertained. Geostatistical analysis showed that the range in KPT (9.1 m) was shorter than that in BNT (15.1 m). The nugget effects, the structured variability, hence the total variability increased as theta(m) increased. For both land uses, the spatial dependency in general increased with increasing theta(m). 2011 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal modeling of agricultural yield data with an application to pricing crop insurance contracts

This article presents a statistical model of agricultural yield data based on a set of hierarchical Bayesian models that allows joint modeling of temporal and spatial autocorrelation. This method captures a comprehensive range of the various uncertainties involved in predicting crop insurance premium rates as opposed to the more traditional ad hoc, two-stage methods that are typically based on independent estimation and prediction. A panel data set of county-average yield data was analyzed for 290 counties in the State of Parana (Brazil) for the period of 1990 through 2002. Posterior predictive criteria are used to evaluate different model specifications. This article provides substantial improvements in the statistical and actuarial methods often applied to the calculation of insurance premium rates. These improvements are especially relevant to situations where data are limited.

The Western Alps from the Jurassic to Oligocene: spatio-temporal constraints and evolutionary reconstructions

Despite extensive research in the last 150 years, the regional tectonic reconstruction of the Western Alps has remained controversial. The curved orogenic belt consists of several ribbon-like continental terranes (Sesia/Austroalpine, Internal Crystalline Massifs, Brianconnais), which are separated by two or more ophiolitic sutures (Piemonte, Valais, Antrona?, Lanzo/ Canavese?). High-pressure (HP) metamorphism of each terrane occurred during distinct orogenic episodes: at similar to65 Ma in the Sesia/Austroalpine, at similar to45 Ma in the Piemonte zone and at similar to35 Ma in the Internal Crystalline Massifs. It is suggested that these events reflect individual accretionary episodes, which together with kinematic indicators and the speed and direction of plate motions, provide constraints for the discussed reconstruction model. The model involves a prolonged orogenic history that took place during relative convergence of Europe and Adria (here considered as a promontory of the African plate). The first accretionary event involved the Sesia/Austroalpine terrane. Final closure of the Piemonte Ocean occurred during the Eocene (similar to45 Ma) and involved ultra-high-pressure (UHP) metamorphism of the Piemonte oceanic crust. Incorporation of the Brianconnais terrane in the accretionary wedge occurred thereafter, possibly during or after subduction of the Valais Ocean in the late Eocene (45-35 Ma). This subduction was terminated at ca. 35 Ma, when the Internal Crystalline Massifs (i.e. the assumed internal parts of the Brianconnais terrane) were buried into great depths and underwent HP and UHP metamorphism. (C) 2004 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

Spatio-temporal alignment of pedobarographic image sequences

O documento em anexo encontra-se na versão post-print (versão corrigida pelo editor).

Spatio-temporal land use/land cover changes analysis and monitoring in the Valencia Municipality, Spain

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfilment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies

Urban land cover change detection analysis and modeling spatio-temporal Growth dynamics using Remote Sensing and GIS Techniques: A case study of Dhaka, Bangladesh

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Spatio-Temporal data modeling in response to deforestation monitoring (a case study of small region in Riau Province, Indonesia)

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.

Spatio-temporal analyses of the relationship between armed conflict and climate change in the eastern Africa

Dissertation submitted in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the Degree of Master of Science in Geospatial Technologies.