Recognizing a Single-Issue Spatial Election

A single-issue spatial election is a voter preference profile derived from an arrangement of candidates and voters on a line, with each voter preferring the nearer of each pair of candidates. We provide a polynomial-time algorithm that determines whether a given preference profile is a single-issue spatial election and, if so, constructs such an election. This result also has preference representation and mechanism design applications.

Valence and spatial explanations for voting in the 2013 Australian election

This paper examines the 2013 Australian federal election to test two competing models of vote choice: spatial politics and valence issues. Using data from the 2013 Australian Election Study, the analysis finds that spatial politics (measured by party identification and self-placement on the left-right spectrum) and valence issues both have significant effects on vote choice. However, spatial measures are more important than valence issues in explaining vote choice, in contrast with recent studies from Britain, Canada and the United States. Explanations for these differences are speculative, but may relate to Australia’s stable party and electoral system, including compulsory voting and the frequency of elections. The consequently high information burden faced by Australian voters may lead to a greater reliance on spatial heuristics than is found elsewhere.

Quasi-experimental estimates of fiscal spillovers and spatial interactions among Brazilian cities

Nós usamos a metodologia de Regressões em Descontinuidade (RDD) para estimar o efeito causal do Fundo de Participação dos Municípios (FPM) recebido por um município sobre características dos municípios vizinhos, considerando uma variedade de temas: finanças públicas, educação, saúde e resultados eleitorais. Nós exploramos a regra que gera uma variação exógena da transferência em munícipios próximos às descontinuidades no repasse do fundo de acordo com faixas de população. Nossa principal contribuição é estimar separadamente e em conjunto o efeito spillover e o efeito direto do FPM, considerando ambos municípios vizinhos ou apenas um deles próximos às mudanças de faixa. Dessa forma, conseguimos entender melhor a interação entre municípios vizinhos quando há uma correlação na probabilidade de receber uma transferência federal. Nós mostramos que a estimativa do efeito direto do FPM sobre os gastos locais diminui em cerca de 20% quando controlamos pelo spillover do vizinho, que em geral é positivo, com exceção dos gastos em saúde e saneamento. Nós estimamos um efeito positivo da transferência sobre notas na prova Brasil e taxas de aprovação escolares em municípios vizinhos e na rede estadual do ensino fundamental. Por outro lado, o recebimento de FPM por municípios vizinhos de pequena população reduz o provimento de bens e serviços de saúde em cidades próximas e maiores, o que pode ocorrer devido à redução da demanda por serviços de saúde. A piora de alguns indicadores globais de saúde é um indício, no entanto, de que podem existir problemas de coordenação para os prefeitos reterem seus gastos em saúde. De fato, quando controlamos pela margem de vitória nas eleições municipais e consideramos apenas cidades vizinhas com prefeitos de partido diferentes, o efeito spillover é maior em magnitude, o que indica que incentivos políticos são importantes para explicar a subprovisão de serviços em saúde, por um lado, e o aumento da provisão de bens em educação, por outro. Nós também constatamos um efeito positivo do FPM sobre votos para o partido do governo federal nas eleições municipais e nacionais, e grande parte desse efeito é explicado pelo spillover do FPM de cidades vizinhas, mostrando que cidades com dependência econômica do governo federal se tornam a base de sustentação e apoio político desse governo. Por fim, nós encontramos um efeito ambíguo do aumento de receita devido ao FPM sobre a competição eleitoral nas eleições municipais, com uma queda da margem de vitória do primeiro colocado e uma redução do número de candidatos, o que pode ser explicado pelo aumento do custo fixo das campanhas locais.

The electoral geography of the Slovak Republic: A comparison of the 1994, 1998, and 2002 parliamentary elections

In what can rightly be said to be one of the most dramatic geopolitical shifts in modern times, the collapse of communist regimes in Central Europe and the former Soviet Union brought about dramatic changes in the entire region. As a consequence, wide ranging political, economic, and social transformations have occurred in almost all of these countries since 1989. The Slovak Republic, as a newly democratic country, went through the establishment of the electoral and party systems that are the central mechanisms to the formation of almost all modern democratic governments. The primary research purpose of this dissertation was to describe and explain regional variations in party support during Slovakia’s ten years of democratic transformation. A secondary purpose was to relate these spatial variations to the evolution of political parties in the post-independence period in light of the literature on transitional electoral systems. Research questions were analyzed using both aggregate and survey data. Specifically, the study utilized electoral data from 1994, 1998, and 2002 Slovak parliamentary elections and socio-economic data of the population within Slovak regions which were eventually correlated with the voting results by party in the 79 Slovak districts. The results of this study demonstrate that there is a tendency among voters in certain regions to provide continuous support to the same political parties/movements over time. In addition, the socio-economic characteristics of the Slovak population (gender, age, education, religion, nationality, unemployment, work force distribution, wages, urban-rural variable, and population density) in different regions tend to influence voting preferences in the parliamentary elections. Finally, there is an evident correlation between party preference and the party’s position on integration into European Union, as measured by perceived attitudes regarding the benefits of EU membership.

The Electoral Geography of the Slovak Republic: A Comparison of the 1994, 1998, and 2002 Parliamentary Elections

In what can rightly be said to be one of the most dramatic geopolitical shifts in modern times, the collapse of communist regimes in Central Europe and the former Soviet Union brought about dramatic changes in the entire region. As a consequence, wide ranging political, economic, and social transformations have occurred in almost all of these countries since 1989. The Slovak Republic, as a newly democratic country, went through the establishment of the electoral and party systems that are the central mechanisms to the formation of almost all modern democratic governments. The primary research purpose of this dissertation was to describe and explain regional variations in party support during Slovakia’s ten years of democratic transformation. A secondary purpose was to relate these spatial variations to the evolution of political parties in the post-independence period in light of the literature on transitional electoral systems. Research questions were analyzed using both aggregate and survey data. Specifically, the study utilized electoral data from 1994, 1998, and 2002 Slovak parliamentary elections and socio-economic data of the population within Slovak regions which were eventually correlated with the voting results by party in the 79 Slovak districts. The results of this study demonstrate that there is a tendency among voters in certain regions to provide continuous support to the same political parties/movements over time. In addition, the socio-economic characteristics of the Slovak population (gender, age, education, religion, nationality, unemployment, work force distribution, wages, urban-rural variable, and population density) in different regions tend to influence voting preferences in the parliamentary elections. Finally, there is an evident correlation between party preference and the party’s position on integration into European Union, as measured by perceived attitudes regarding the benefits of EU membership.