968 resultados para spatial and stochastic modelling, bio-chemical kinetics, multi-scale simulation, systems biology


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Understanding the complexity of live pig trade organization is a key factor to predict and control major infectious diseases, such as classical swine fever (CSF) or African swine fever (ASF). Whereas the organization of pig trade has been described in several European countries with indoor commercial production systems, little information is available on this organization in other systems, such as outdoor or small-scale systems. The objective of this study was to describe and compare the spatial and functional organization of live pig trade in different European countries and different production systems. Data on premise characteristics and pig movements between premises were collected during 2011 from Bulgaria, France, Italy, and Spain, which swine industry is representative of most of the production systems in Europe (i.e., commercial vs. small-scale and outdoor vs. indoor). Trade communities were identified in each country using the Walktrap algorithm. Several descriptive and network metrics were generated at country and community levels. Pig trade organization showed heterogeneous spatial and functional organization. Trade communities mostly composed of indoor commercial premises were identified in western France, northern Italy, northern Spain, and north-western Bulgaria. They covered large distances, overlapped in space, demonstrated both scale-free and small-world properties, with a role of trade operators and multipliers as key premises. Trade communities involving outdoor commercial premises were identified in western Spain, south-western and central France. They were more spatially clustered, demonstrated scale-free properties, with multipliers as key premises. Small-scale communities involved the majority of premises in Bulgaria and in central and Southern Italy. They were spatially clustered and had scale-free properties, with key premises usually being commercial production premises. These results indicate that a disease might spread very differently according to the production system and that key premises could be targeted to more cost-effectively control diseases. This study provides useful epidemiological information and parameters that could be used to design risk-based surveillance strategies or to more accurately model the risk of introduction or spread of devastating swine diseases, such as ASF, CSF, or foot-and-mouth disease.

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Predictive models of species distributions are important tools for fisheries management. Unfortunately, these predictive models can be difficult to perform on large waterbodies where fish are difficult to detect and exhaustive sampling is not possible. In recent years the development of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and new occupancy modelling techniques has improved our ability to predict distributions across landscapes as well as account for imperfect detection. I surveyed the nearshore fish community at 105 sites between Kingston, Ontario and Rockport, Ontario with the objective of modelling geographic and environmental characteristics associated with littoral fish distributions. Occupancy modelling was performed on Round Goby, Yellow perch, and Lepomis spp. Modelling with geographic and environmental covariates revealed the effect of shoreline exposure on nearshore habitat characteristics and the occupancy of Round Goby. Yellow Perch, and Lepomis spp. occupancy was most strongly associated negatively with distance to a wetland. These results are consistent with past research on large lake systems indicate the importance of wetlands and shoreline exposure in determining the fish community of the littoral zone. By examining 3 species with varying rates of occupancy and detection, this study was also able to demonstrate the variable utility of occupancy modelling.

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In a globalized economy, the use of natural resources is determined by the demand of modern production and consumption systems, and by infrastructure development. Sustainable natural resource use will require good governance and management based on sound scientific information, data and indicators. There is a rich literature on natural resource management, yet the national and global scale and macro-economic policy making has been underrepresented. We provide an overview of the scholarly literature on multi-scale governance of natural resources, focusing on the information required by relevant actors from local to global scale. Global natural resource use is largely determined by national, regional, and local policies. We observe that in recent decades, the development of public policies of natural resource use has been fostered by an “inspiration cycle” between the research, policy and statistics community, fostering social learning. Effective natural resource policies require adequate monitoring tools, in particular indicators for the use of materials, energy, land, and water as well as waste and GHG emissions of national economies. We summarize the state-of-the-art of the application of accounting methods and data sources for national material flow accounts and indicators, including territorial and product-life-cycle based approaches. We show how accounts on natural resource use can inform the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and argue that information on natural resource use, and in particular footprint indicators, will be indispensable for a consistent implementation of the SDGs. We recognize that improving the knowledge base for global natural resource use will require further institutional development including at national and international levels, for which we outline options.

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Fishing trials with monofilament gill nets and longlines using small hooks were carried out in Algarve waters (southern Portugal) over a one-year period. Four hook sizes of "Mustad" brand, round bent, flatted sea hooks (Quality 2316 DT, numbers 15, 13, 12 and 11) and four mesh sizes of 25, 30, 35 and 40 mm (bar length) monofilament gill nets were used. Commercially valuable sea breams dominated the longline catches while small pelagics were relatively more important in the gill nets. Significant differences in the catch size frequency distributions of the two gears were found for all the most important species caught by both gears (Boops boops, Diplodus bellottii, Diplodus vulgaris, Pagellus acarne, Pagellus erythrinus, Spondyiosoma cantharus, Scomber japonicus and Scorpaena notata), with longlines catching larger fish and a wider size range than nets. Whereas longline catch size frequency distributions for most species for the different hook sizes were generally highly overlapped, suggesting little or no differences in size selectivity, gill net catch size frequency distributions clearly showed size selection. A variety of models were fitted to the gill net and hook data using the SELECT method, while the parameters of the logistic model were estimated by maximum likelihood for the longline data. The bi-normal model gave the best fits for most of the species caught with gill nets, while the logistic model adequately described hook selectivity. The results of this study show that the two static gears compete for many of the same species and have different impacts in terms of catch composition and size selectivity. This information will I;e useful for the improved management of these small-scale fisheries in which many different gears compete for scarce resources.

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The ecological role of gorgonians for marine rocky bottoms is worldwide recognized, but the information on the distribution patterns of NE Atlantic temperate species is insufficient, considering current global, regional and local threats. To overcome the lack of information on the spatial distribution patterns of gorgonians in south Portugal, in 2009/2010, the occurrence and abundance of gorgonian species in rocky bottoms were quantified over more than 25 km of coast (37.1N/8.6W) down to 30 m depth. Eunicella labiata, Eunicella gazella, Eunicella verrucosa and Leptogorgia sarmentosa were abundant and frequent in the studied area, while Leptogorgia lusitanica was less abundant. All species evidenced a similar depth pattern, that is abundance significantly increased with depth below 15 m. At shallower waters (up to 15 m), the distribution of gorgonians may be constrained by abiotic factors and competition with algae. Indeed, the abundance of gorgonians was negatively correlated with the percentage cover of algae along the depth gradient, but gorgonians and sponges coexist. Competition among gorgonian species also seems to be low in this area because of the similarity in the abundance pattern observed for the most abundant species and also their high association. In NE Atlantic shallow temperate rocky bottoms, the distribution of gorgonians seems to be influenced by environmental factors and biological interactions, namely competition (algae) and coexistence (sponges and other gorgonians).

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This short paper presents a numerical method for spatial and temporal downscaling of solar global radiation and mean air temperature data from global weather forecast models and its validation. The final objective is to develop a prediction algorithm to be integrated in energy management models and forecast of energy harvesting in solar thermal systems of medium/low temperature. Initially, hourly prediction and measurement data of solar global radiation and mean air temperature were obtained, being then numerically downscaled to half-hourly prediction values for the location where measurements were taken. The differences between predictions and measurements were analyzed for more than one year of data of mean air temperature and solar global radiation on clear sky days, resulting in relative daily deviations of around -0.9±3.8% and 0.02±3.92%, respectively.

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In the Northeast of Brazil, vines can produce twice a year, because annual average temperature is 26ºC, with high solar radiation and water availability for irrigation. Many cultivars have been tested according to their adaptation to the climate and soil, and the main variety used for red wines is Syrah. This work aimed to evaluate five clones of Syrah, grafted on two rootstocks, in two harvests of the second semester of 2009 and 2010, according to the chemical analyses of the wines.The clones evaluated were 100, 174, 300, 470 and 525, the rootstocks were Paulsen 1103 and IAC 313 (Golia x Vitis caribeae). Grapes were harvested in November 2009 and 2010 and the yield was evaluated. Climate characteristics of each harvest was determined and correlated to the results. Wines were elaborated in glass tanks of 20 L, with alcoholic fermentation at 25ºC for seven days, then wines were pressed and malolactic fermentation was carried out at 18ºC for 20 days. The following parameters were analyzed: alcohol content, dry extract, total anthocyanins, total phenolic index. High performance liquid chromatography was used to determine tartaric, malic, lactic and citric organic acids. Results showed that wines presented different concentrations of classical analyses, phenolics and organic acids according to the harvest date, rootstocks and clones. Principal component analysis was applied on data and clusters with wine samples were formed, explaining the variability, and results are discussed.

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Introduction: Brazil, is one of the main agricultural producers in the world ranking 1st in the production of sugarcane, coffee and oranges. It is also 2nd as world producer of soybeans and a leader in the harvested yields of many other crops. The annual consumption of mineral fertilizers exceeds 20 million mt, 30% of which corresponds to potash fertilizers (ANDA, 2006). From this statistic it may be supposed that fertilizer application in Brazil is rather high, compared with many other countries. However, even if it is assumed that only one fourth of this enormous 8.5 million km2 territory is used for agriculture, average levels of fertilizer application per hectare of arable land are not high enough for sustainable production. One of the major constraints is the relatively low natural fertility status of the soils which contain excessive Fe and Al oxides. Agriculture is also often practised on sandy soils so that the heavy rainfall causes large losses of nutrients through leaching. In general, nutrient removal by crops such as sugarcane and tropical fruits is much more than the average nutrient application via fertilization, especially in regions with a long history of agricultural production. In the recently developed areas, especially in the Cerrado (Brazilian savanna) where agriculture has expanded since 1980, soils are even poorer than in the "old" agricultural regions, and high costs of mineral fertilizers have become a significant input factor in determining soybean, maize and cotton planting. The consumption of mineral fertilizers throughout Brazil is very uneven. According to the 1995/96 Agricultural Census, only in eight of the total of 26 Brazilian states, were 50 per cent or more of the farms treated "systematically" with mineral fertilizers; in many states it was less than 25 per cent, and in five states even less than 12 per cent (Brazilian Institute for Geography and Statistics; Censo Agropecuario1995/96, Instituto Brazileiro de Geografia e Estadistica; IBGE, www.ibge.gov.br). The geographical application distribution pattern of mineral fertilizers may be considered as an important field of research. Understanding geographical disparities in fertilization level requires a complex approach. This includes evaluation of the availability of nutrients in the soil (and related soil properties e.g. CEC and texture), the input of nutrients with fertilizer application, and the removal of nutrients by harvested yields. When all these data are compiled, it is possible to evaluate the balance of particular nutrients for certain areas, and make conclusions as to where agricultural practices should be optimized. This kind of research is somewhat complicated, because it relies on completely different sources of data, usually from incomparable data sources, e.g. soil characteristics attributed to soil type areas, in contrast to yields by administrative regions, or farms. A priority tool in this case is the Geographical Information System (GIS), which enables attribution of data from different fields to the same territorial units, and makes possible integration of these data in an "inputoutput" model, where "input" is the natural availability of a nutrient in the soil plus fertilization, and "output" export of the same nutrient with the removed harvested yield.