Radiocarbon record of solar variability and Holocene climatic change in coastal southern California

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): Pollen analysis and 5 radiocarbon dates for a 687-cm core provide a detailed chronology of environmental change for San Joaquin Marsh at the head of Newport Bay, Orange County, California. Sediment deposition kept pace with sea level rise during the mid-Holocene, but after 4500 years BP, sea water regularly reached the coring site, and salt marsh was the local vegetation. Brief periods of dominance by fresh-water vegetation 3800, 2800, 2300 and after 560 years BP correlate global cooling events and (except the 3800-year BP event) with carbon-14 production anomalies. The coincidence of climate change and carbon-14 anomalies support a causal connection with solar variability, but regardless of the causal mechanism(s) the delta-carbon-14 curves provide a chronology for global, high-frequency climatic change comparable to that of Milankovitch cyclicity for longer time scales.

Enhanced signature of solar variability in Eurasian winter climate

We demonstrate that a new geomagnetic index of solar variability exhibits stronger correlations with atmospheric circulation variations than conventional measures. The circulation anomalies are particularly enhanced over the North Atlantic / Eurasian sector, where there are large changes in the occurrence of blocking and the winter mean surface temperature differs by several degrees between high- and low-solar terciles. The relationship is also simpler, being largely linear between high- and low-solar winters. While the circulation anomalies strongly resemble the North Atlantic Oscillation they also extend deeper into Eurasia, in a distinct signature which may be useful for the detection and attribution of observed changes and also the identification of dynamical mechanisms.

Variability of mesospheric water vapor above Bern in relation to the 27-day solar rotation cycle

Many studies investigated solar–terrestrial responses (thermal state, O₃ , OH, H₂O) with emphasis on the tropical upper atmosphere. In this paper the Focus is switched to water vapor in the mesosphere at a mid-latitudinal location. Eight years of water vapor profile measurements above Bern (46.88°N/7.46°E) are investigated to study oscillations with the Focus on periods between 10 and 50 days. Different spectral analyses revealed prominent features in the 27-day oscillation band, which are enhanced in the upper mesosphere (above 0.1 hPa, ∼64 km) during the rising sun spot activity of solar cycle 24. Local as well as zonal mean Aura MLS observations Support these results by showing a similar behavior. The relationship between mesospheric water and the solar Lyman-α flux is studied by comparing thesi-milarity of their temporal oscillations. The H₂O oscillation is negatively correlated to solar Lyman-α oscillation with a correlation coefficient of up to −0.3 to −0.4, and the Phase lag is 6–10 days at 0.04 hPa. The confidence level of the correlation is ≥99%. This finding supports the assumption that the 27-day oscillation in Lyman-α causes a periodical photo dissociation loss in mesospheric water. Wavelet power spectra, cross-wavelet transform and wavelet coherence analysis (WTC)complete our study. More periods of high common wavelet power of H₂O and solar Lyman-α are present when amplitudes of the Lyman-α flux increase. Since this is not a measure of physical correlation a more detailed view on WTC is necessary, where significant (two sigma level)correlations occur intermittently in the 27 and 13-day band with variable Phase lock behavior. Large Lyman-α oscillations appeared after the solar super storm in July 2012 and the H₂O oscillations show a well pronounced anticorrelation. The competition between advective transport and photo dissociation loss of mesospheric water vapor may explain the sometimes variable Phase relationship of mesospheric H₂O and solar Lyman-α oscillations. Generally, the WTC analysis indicates that solar variability causes observable photochemical and dynamical processes in the mid-latitude mesosphere.

Evidence from the Pacific Northwest for solar modulation of climate and of northern ecosystems

EXTRACT (SEE PDF FOR FULL ABSTRACT): The 250-year net annual snow accumulation, or mass balance, time series derived from the Mt. Logan (Yukon) ice core has been spectrally analyzed and is found to contain a nominal 11-year waveform. The stable isotope time series contains a significant amount of power between 9 and 13 years, although this record is evidently not a straightforward proxy for air temperatures. The signal in the mass balance time series exhibits a close relationship with the sunspot cycle waveform and is, therefore, assumed to be related to it. Waveforms showing a high correlation with the solar cycle are found in other climate data in the region. ... Taken collectively, the data point to a link between solar variability, atmospheric variability, climate, and selected ecological dynamics in the Pacific Northwest, but other data, not presented, indicate these relationships may hold elsewhere. So far, the evidence is empirical; complete details of the physical mechanisms involved have yet to be synthesized in a satisfactory way.

Determining the role of linear and nonlinear interactions in records of climate change: possible solar influences in annual to century-scale records

Time series analysis methods have traditionally helped in identifying the role of various forcing mechanisms in influencing climate change. A challenge to understanding decadal and century-scale climate change has been that the linkages between climate changes and potential forcing mechanisms such as solar variability are often uncertain. However, most studies have focused on the role of climate forcing and climate response within a strictly linear framework. Nonlinear time series analysis procedures provide the opportunity to analyze the role of climate forcing and climate responses between different time scales of climate change. An example is provided by the possible nonlinear response of paleo-ENSO-scale climate changes as identified from coral records to forcing by the solar cycle at longer time scales.

Solar forcing of climate change during the mid-Holocene: indications from raised bogs in the Netherlands.

Two cores of mid-Holocene raised-bog deposits from the Netherlands were 14C wiggle-match dated at high precision. Changes in local moisture conditions were inferred from the changing species composition of consecutive series of macrofossil samples. Several wet-shifts were inferred, and these were often coeval with major rises in the D14C archive (probably caused by major declines in solar activity). The use of D14C as a proxy for changes in solar activity is validated. This paper adds to the increasing body of evidence that solar variability forced climatic changes during the Holocene.

Determining the Sun's influence on Lateglacial and Holocene climates: a focus on climate response to centennial-scale solar forcing at 2800 cal. BP

The influence of solar variability on the climate of the Lateglacial and Holocene periods has been the subject of increasing discussion during the last decade. In the Mid-Holocene, several studies have identified cold/wet events that occur at ca 2800 cal. BP and a link with a reduction in solar activity, inferred from the C-14 record, has been postulated. We present results from a multi-proxy study of peat humification, plant macrofossils and testate amoebae from a raised bog at Glen West, northwest Ireland, that indicate that dry bog surface conditions were experienced in the north of Ireland at the time of the solar anomaly starting at 2800 cal. BP. With the aid of C-14 wiggle-matching and tephrochronology, an abrupt shift to wetter conditions is dated to ca 2700 cal. BP, coinciding with a C-14 maximum but clearly post-dating the 2800 cal. BP event identified elsewhere in Europe. We explore the significance of this apparent lag in the Irish record, considering the possible role of the ocean in generating spatial and temporal complexities in the climate patterns of the North Atlantic region. We conclude that these complexities are likely to give rise to time-transgressive climate responses around the North Atlantic that will only be recognised by more critical chronological approaches.

Signal and variability within a Holocene peat bog - Chronological uncertainties of pollen, macrofossil and fungal proxies

A single raised bog from the eastern Netherlands has been repeatedly analysed and ¹⁴C dated over the past few decades. Here we assess the within-site variability of fossil proxy data through comparing the regional
pollen, macrofossils and non-pollen palynomorphs of four of these profiles. High-resolution chronologies were obtained using ¹⁴C dating and Bayesian age-depth modelling. Where chronologies of profiles overlap, proxy curves are compared between the profiles using greyscale graphs that visualise chronological uncertainties. Even at this small spatial scale, there is considerable variability of the fossil proxy curves. Implications regarding signal (climate) and noise (internal dynamics) of the different types of fossil proxies are discussed. Single cores are of limited value for reconstructing centennial-scale climate change, and only by combining multiple cores and proxies can we obtain a reliable understanding of past environmental change and possible forcing factors (e.g., solar variability).

Solar influences on dynamical coupling between the stratosphere and troposphere

We use a simplified atmospheric general circulation model (AGCM) to investigate the response of the lower atmosphere to thermal perturbations in the lower stratosphere. The results show that generic heating of the lower stratosphere tends to weaken the sub-tropical jets and the tropospheric mean meridional circulations. The positions of the jets, and the extent of the Hadley cells, respond to the distribution of the stratospheric heating, with low latitude heating displacing them poleward, and uniform heating displacing them equatorward. The patterns of response to the low latitude heating are similar to those found to be associated with solar variability in previous observational data analysis, and to the effects of varying solar UV radiation in sophisticated AGCMs. In order to investigate the chain of causality involved in converting the stratospheric thermal forcing to a tropospheric climate signal we conduct an experiment which uses an ensemble of model spin-ups to analyse the time development of the response to an applied stratospheric perturbation. We find that the initial effect of the change in static stability at the tropopause is to reduce the eddy momentum flux convergence in this region. This is followed by a vertical transfer of the momentum forcing anomaly by an anomalous mean circulation to the surface, where it is partly balanced by surface stress anomalies. The unbalanced part drives the evolution of the vertically integrated zonal flow. We conclude that solar heating of the stratosphere may produce changes in the circulation of the troposphere even without any direct forcing below the tropopause. We suggest that the impact of the stratospheric changes on wave propagation is key to the mechanisms involved.