Ionosphere-atmosphere interaction during solar proton events

Among the most striking natural phenomena affecting ozone are solar proton events (SPE), during which high-energy protons precipitate into the middle atmosphere in the polar regions. Ionisation caused by the protons results in changes in the lower ionosphere, and in production of neutral odd nitrogen and odd hydrogen species which then destroy ozone in well-known catalytic chemical reaction chains. Large SPEs are able to decrease the ozone concentration of upper stratosphere and mesosphere, but are not expected to significantly affect the ozone layer at 15--30~km altitude. In this work we have used the Sodankylä Ion and Neutral Chemistry Model (SIC) in studies of the short-term effects caused by SPEs. The model results were found to be in a good agreement with ionospheric observations from incoherent scatter radars, riometers, and VLF radio receivers as well as with measurements from the GOMOS/Envisat satellite instrument. For the first time, GOMOS was able to observe the SPE effects on odd nitrogen and ozone in the winter polar region. Ozone observations from GOMOS were validated against those from MIPAS/Envisat instrument, and a good agreement was found throughout the middle atmosphere. For the case of the SPE of October/November 2003, long-term ozone depletion was observed in the upper stratosphere. The depletion was further enhanced by the descent of odd nitrogen from the mesosphere inside the polar vortex, until the recovery occurred in late December. During the event, substantial diurnal variation of ozone depletion was seen in the mesosphere, caused mainly by the the strong diurnal cycle of the odd hydrogen species. In the lower ionosphere, SPEs increase the electron density which is very low in normal conditions. Therefore, SPEs make radar observations easier. In the case of the SPE of October, 1989, we studied the sunset transition of negative charge from electrons to ions, a long-standing problem. The observed phenomenon, which is controlled by the amount of solar radiation, was successfully explained by considering twilight changes in both the rate of photodetachment of negative ions and concentrations of minor neutral species. Changes in the magnetic field of the Earth control the extent of SPE-affected area. For the SPE of November 2001, the results indicated that for low and middle levels of geomagnetic disturbance the estimated cosmic radio noise absorption levels based on a magnetic field model are in a good agreement with ionospheric observations. For high levels of disturbance, the model overestimates the stretching of the geomagnetic field and the geographical extent of SPE-affected area. This work shows the importance of ionosphere-atmosphere interaction for SPE studies. By using both ionospheric and atmospheric observations, we have been able to cover for the most part the whole chain of SPE-triggered processes, from proton-induced ionisation to depletion of ozone.

Magnetospheric access of solar particles and the configuration of the distant geomagnetic field

The access of 1.2-40 MeV protons and 0.4-1.0 MeV electrons from interplanetary space to the polar cap regions has been investigated with an experiment on board a low altitude, polar orbiting satellite (OG0-4).

A total of 333 quiet time observations of the electron polar cap boundary give a mapping of the boundary between open and closed geomagnetic field lines which is an order of magnitude more comprehensive than previously available.

Persistent features (north/south asymmetries) in the polar cap proton flux, which are established as normal during solar proton events, are shown to be associated with different flux levels on open geomagnetic field lines than on closed field lines. The pole in which these persistent features are observed is strongly correlated to the sector structure of the interplanetary magnetic field and uncorrelated to the north/south component of this field. The features were observed in the north (south) pole during a negative (positive) sector 91% of the time, while the solar field had a southward component only 54% of the time. In addition, changes in the north/south component have no observable effect on the persistent features.

Observations of events associated with co-rotating regions of enhanced proton flux in interplanetary space are used to establish the characteristics of the 1.2 - 40 MeV proton access windows: the access window for low polar latitudes is near the earth, that for one high polar latitude region is ~250 R_⊕ behind the earth, while that for the other high polar latitude region is ~1750 R_⊕ behind the earth. All of the access windows are of approximately the same extent (~120 R_⊕). The following phenomena contribute to persistent polar cap features: limited interplanetary regions of enhanced flux propagating past the earth, radial gradients in the interplanetary flux, and anisotropies in the interplanetary flux.

These results are compared to the particle access predictions of the distant geomagnetic tail configurations proposed by Michel and Dessler, Dungey, and Frank. The data are consistent with neither the model of Michel and Dessler nor that of Dungey. The model of Frank can yield a consistent access window configuration provided the following constraints are satisfied: the merging rate for open field lines at one polar neutral point must be ~5 times that at the other polar neutral point, related to the solar magnetic field configuration in a consistent fashion, the migration time for open field lines to move across the polar cap region must be the same in both poles, and the open field line merging rate at one of the polar neutral points must be at least as large as that required for almost all the open field lines to have merged in 0 (one hour). The possibility of satisfying these constraints is investigated in some detail.

The role played by interplanetary anisotropies in the observation of persistent polar cap features is discussed. Special emphasis is given to the problem of non-adiabatic particle entry through regions where the magnetic field is changing direction. The degree to which such particle entry can be assumed to be nearly adiabatic is related to the particle rigidity, the angle through which the field turns, and the rate at which the field changes direction; this relationship is established for the case of polar cap observations.

电离层行进式扰动的GPS台网监测研究

In this dissertation, we investigated two types of traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs)/gravity waves (GWs) triggered separately by auroral energy input during super geomagnetic storms and solar terminator (ST) under quiet geomagnetic conditions (kp<3+) using TEC measurements from the global network of GPS receivers. Research into the generation and propagation of TIDs/GWs during storms greatly enhance our understandings on the evolution processes of energy transportation from the high-latitude’s magnetosphere to the low-latitude ionosphere and the conjugated effect of TIDs propagation between the northern and southern hemispheres. Our results revealed that the conjugacy of propagation direction between the northern and southern hemispheres was subject to the influence of Coriolis force. We also figure out the evolution processes of ionospheric disturbances at the global scale. These are important topics that had not been well addressed previously. In addition, we also obtained thee wave structures of medium scale TIDs excited by the solar terminator (ST) moving over the northern America and physical mechanisms involved. Our observations confirm that the ST is a stable and repetitive source of ionospheric wave disturbances and the evidence of solar terminator generated disturbances has been demonstrated experimentally via the GPS TEC measurement. The main researches and results of this dissertation are as follows. First, the global traveling ionospheric disturbances (TIDs) during the drastic magnetic storms of October 29–31, 2003 were analyzed using the Global Position System (GPS) total electron content (TEC) data observed in the Asian-Australian, European and North American sectors. We collected the most comprehensive set of the TEC data from more than 900 GPS stations on the International GNSS Services (IGS) website and introduce here a strategy that combines polynomial fitting and multi-channel maximum entropy spectral analysis to obtain TID parameters. Moreover, in collaboration with my thesis advisor, I have developed an imaging technique of 2-dimensional map of TIDs structures to obtain spatial and temporal maps of large scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (LSTIDs). The clear structures of TEC perturbations map during the passage of TIDs were displayed. The results of our study are summarized as follows: (1) Large-scale TIDs (LSTIDs) and medium-scale TIDs (MSTIDs) were detected in all three sectors after the sudden commencement (SC) of the magnetic storm, and their features showed longitudinal and latitudinal dependences. The duration of TIDs was longer at higher latitudes than at middle latitudes, with a maximum of about 16 h. The TEC variation amplitude of LSTIDs was larger in the North American sector than in the two other sectors. At the lower latitudes, the ionospheric perturbations were more complicated, and their duration and amplitude were relatively longer and larger. (2) The periods and phase speeds of TIDs were different in these three sectors. In Europe, the TIDs propagated southward; in North America and Asia, the TIDs propagated southwestward; in the near-equator region, the disturbances propagated with the azimuth (the angle of the propagation direction of the LSTIDs measured clockwise from due north with 0°) of 210° showing the influence of Coriolis force; in the Southern Hemisphere, the LSTIDs propagated conjugatedly northwestward. Both the southwestward and northeastward propagating LSTIDs are found in the equatorial region. These results mean that the Coriolis effect cannot be ignored for the wave propagation of LSTIDs and that the propagation direction is correlated with the polar magnetic activity. (3) The day (day of year: 301) before the SC (sudden commencement) of magnetic storm, we observed a sudden TEC skip disturbances (±10 TECU). It should be a response for the high flux of proton during the solar flare event, but not the magnetic storms. Next, the most comprehensive and dense GPS network’s data from North-America region were used in this paper to analyze the medium scale traveling ionospheric disturbances (MSTIDs) which were generated by the moving solar terminator during the quiet days in 2005. We applied the multi-channel maximum entropy spectral analysis to calculated TID parameters, and found that the occurrence of ST-MSTIDs depends on the seasonal variations. The results of our study are summarized as follows: (1) MSTIDs stimulated by the moving ST (ST-MSTIDs) are detected at mid-latitudes after the passage of the solar terminator with the life time of 2～3 hours and the variation amplitude of 0.2～0.8 TECU. Spectral analysis indicated that the horizontal wavelength, average period, horizontal phase velocity of the MSTIDs are around 300±150 km，150±80 m/s and 25±15 min, respectively. In addition, ST-MSTIDs have wave fronts elongating the moving ST direction and almost parallel to ST. (2) The statistical results demonstrate that the dusk MSTIDs stimulated by ST is more obvious than the dawn MSTIDs in summer. On the contrary, the more-pronounced dawn MSTIDs occurs in winter. (3) Further analysis indicates that the seasonal variations of ST-MSTIDs occurrence frequency are most probably related to the seasonal differences of the variations of EUV flux in the ionosphere region and recombination process during sunrise and sunset period at mid-latitudes. Statistical study of occurrence characteristics of TIDs using the GPS network in North-American and European during solar maximum, In conclusion, statistical studies of the propagation characteristics of TIDs, which excited by the two common origins including geomagnetic storms and moving solar terminator, were involved with global GPS TEC databasein this thesis. We employed the multichannel maximum entropy spectral analysis method to diagnose the characteristics of propagation and evolvement of ionospheric disturbances, also, the characteristics of their regional distribution and climatological variations were revealed by the statistic analysis. The results of these studies can improve our knowledge about the energy transfer in the solar-terrestrial system and the coupling process between upper and lower atmosphere (thermosphere-ionosphere-mesosphere). On the other hand, our results of the investigation on TIDs generated by particular linear origin such as ST are important for developing ionospheric irregularity physics and modeling the transionosphere radio wave propagation. Besides, the GPS TEC representation of the ST-generated ionospheric structure suggests a better possibility for investigating this phenomenon. Subsequently, there are scientific meaning of the result of this dissertation to deeply discuss the energy transfer and coupling in the ionosphere, as well as realistic value to space weather forecast in the ionosphere region.

Intracranial Aneurysm Rupture Is Predicted by Measures of Solar Activity.

OBJECTIVE The cause precipitating intracranial aneurysm rupture remains unknown in many cases. It has been observed that aneurysm ruptures are clustered in time, but the trigger mechanism remains obscure. Because solar activity has been associated with cardiovascular mortality and morbidity, we decided to study its association to aneurysm rupture in the Swiss population. METHODS Patient data were extracted from the Swiss SOS database, at time of analysis covering 918 consecutive patients with angiography-proven aneurysmal subarachnoid hemorrhage treated at 7 Swiss neurovascular centers between January 1, 2009, and December 31, 2011. The daily rupture frequency (RF) was correlated to the absolute amount and the change in various parameters of interest representing continuous measurements of solar activity (radioflux [F10.7 index], solar proton flux, solar flare occurrence, planetary K-index/planetary A-index, Space Environment Services Center [SESC] sunspot number and sunspot area) using Poisson regression analysis. RESULTS During the period of interest, there were 517 days without recorded aneurysm rupture. There were 398, 139, 27, 12, 1, and 1 days with 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6 ruptures per day. Poisson regression analysis demonstrated a significant correlation of F10.7 index and RF (incidence rate ratio [IRR] = 1.006303; standard error (SE) 0.0013201; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.003719-1.008894; P < 0.001), according to which every 1-unit increase of the F10.7 index increased the count for an aneurysm to rupture by 0.63%. A likewise statistically significant relationship of both the SESC sunspot number (IRR 1.003413; SE 0.0007913; 95% CI 1.001864-1.004965; P < 0.001) and the sunspot area (IRR 1.000419; SE 0.0000866; 95% CI 1.000249-1.000589; P < 0.001) emerged. All other variables analyzed showed no significant correlation with RF. CONCLUSIONS We found greater radioflux, SESC sunspot number, and sunspot area to be associated with an increased count of aneurysm rupture. The clinical meaningfulness of this statistical association must be interpreted carefully and future studies are warranted to rule out a type-1 error.

Is intracranial aneurysm rupture related to solar activity?

Objective: A number of intrinsic and extrinsic risk factors for the rupture of intracranial aneurysms have been identified. Still, the cause precipitating aneurysm rupture remains unknown in many cases. In addition, it has been observed that aneurysm ruptures are clustered in time but the trigger mechanism remains obscure. As solar activity has been associated with cardiovascular mortality and morbidity we decided to study ist association to aneurysm rupture in the Swiss population. Method: Patient data was extracted from the Swiss SOS database, at time of analysis covering 918 patients with angiography-proven aSAH treated at seven Swiss neurovascular centers between 01/01/2009 – 12/31/2011. The number of aneurysm rupture per day, week, month (Daily/Weekly/Monthly Rupture Frequency = RF) was measured and correlated to the absolute amount and the change in various parameters of interest representing continuous measurements of solar activity (radioflux (F10.7 index), solar proton flux, solar flare occurrence, planetary K-index/planetary A-index) using Poisson regression analysis. Results: Of a consecutive series of 918 cases of SAH, precise determination of the date of symptom onset was possible in 816 (88.9%). During the period of interest there were 517 days without recorded aneurysm rupture. There were 398, 139, 27 and 12 days with 1, 2, 3, and 4 ruptures per day. Five or 6 ruptures were only noted on a single day each. Poisson regression analysis demonstrated a significant correlation of F10.7 index and aneurysm rupture (incidence rate ratio (IRR) = 1.006303; standard error (SE) 0.0013201; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.003719 – 1.008894; p<0.001), according to which every 1-unit increase of the F10.7 index increased the count for an aneurysm to rupture by 0.63%. As the F10.7 index is known to correlate well with the Space Environment Services Center (SESC) sunspot number, we performed additional analyses on SESC sunspot number and sunspot area. Here, a likewise statistically significant relationship of both the SESC sunspot number (IRR 1.003413; SE 0.0007913; 95%CI 1.001864 – 1.004965; p<0.001) and the sunspot area (IRR 1.000419; SE 0.0000866; 95%CI 1.000249 – 1.000589; p<0.001) emerged. All other variables analyzed showed no correlation with RF. Conclusions: Using valid methods, we found higher radioflux, sunspot number and sunspot area to be associated with an increased count of aneurysm rupture. Since we were using rupture frequencies rather than incidences and because we cannot explain the physiological basis of this statistical association, the clinical meaningfulness of this statistical association must be interpreted carefully. Future studies are warranted to rule out a type-1 error.

Observations of production and transport of NOx formed by energetic particle precipitation in the polar night atmosphere

This work is focused on the effects of energetic particle precipitation of solar or magnetospheric origin on the polar middle atmosphere. The energetic charged particles have access to the atmosphere in the polar areas, where they are guided by the Earth's magnetic field. The particles penetrate down to 20-100 km altitudes (stratosphere and mesosphere) ionising the ambient air. This ionisation leads to production of odd nitrogen (NOx) and odd hydrogen species, which take part in catalytic ozone destruction. NOx has a very long chemical lifetime during polar night conditions. Therefore NOx produced at high altitudes during polar night can be transported to lower stratospheric altitudes. Particular emphasis in this work is in the use of both space and ground based observations: ozone and NO2 measurements from the GOMOS instrument on board the European Space Agency's Envisat-satellite are used together with subionospheric VLF radio wave observations from ground stations. Combining the two observation techniques enabled detection of NOx enhancements throughout the middle atmosphere, including tracking the descent of NOx enhancements of high altitude origin down to the stratosphere. GOMOS observations of the large Solar Proton Events of October-November 2003 showed the progression of the SPE initiated NOx enhancements through the polar winter. In the upper stratosphere, nighttime NO2 increased by an order of magnitude, and the effect was observed to last for several weeks after the SPEs. Ozone decreases up to 60 % from the pre-SPE values were observed in the upper stratosphere nearly a month after the events. Over several weeks the GOMOS observations showed the gradual descent of the NOx enhancements to lower altitudes. Measurements from years 2002-2006 were used to study polar winter NOx increases and their connection to energetic particle precipitation. NOx enhancements were found to occur in a good correlation with both increased high-energy particle precipitation and increased geomagnetic activity. The average wintertime polar NOx was found to have a nearly linear relationship with the average wintertime geomagnetic activity. The results from this thesis work show how important energetic particle precipitation from outside the atmosphere is as a source of NOx in the middle atmosphere, and thus its importance to the chemical balance of the atmosphere.

Midlatitude daytime D region ionosphere variations measured from radio atmospherics

We measured the midlatitude daytime ionospheric D region electron density profile height variations in July and August 2005 near Duke University by using radio atmospherics (or sferics for short), which are the high-power, broadband very low frequency (VLF) signals launched by lightning discharges. As expected, the measured daytime D region electron density profile heights showed temporal variations quantitatively correlated with solar zenith angle changes. In the midlatitude geographical regions near Duke University, the observed quiet time heights decreased from ∼80 km near sunrise to ∼71 km near noon when the solar zenith angle was minimum. The measured height quantitative dependence on the solar zenith angle was slightly different from the low-latitude measurement given in a previous work. We also observed unexpected spatial variations not linked to the solar zenith angle on some days, with 15% of days exhibiting regional differences larger than 0.5 km. In these 2 months, 14 days had sudden height drops caused by solar flare X-rays, with a minimum height of 63.4 km observed. The induced height change during a solar flare event was approximately proportional to the logarithm of the X-ray flux. In the long waveband (wavelength, 1-8 Å), an increase in flux by a factor of 10 resulted in 6.3 km decrease of the height at the flux peak time, nearly a perfect agreement with the previous measurement. During the rising and decaying phases of the solar flare, the height changes correlated more consistently with the short, rather than the long, wavelength X-ray flux changes. © 2010 by the American Geophysical Union.

From the sun to the Earth: The 13 May 2005 coronal mass ejection

We report the results of a multi-instrument, multi-technique, coordinated study of the solar eruptive event of 13 May 2005. We discuss the resultant Earth-directed (halo) coronal mass ejection (CME), and the effects on the terrestrial space environment and upper Earth atmosphere. The interplanetary CME (ICME) impacted the Earth’s magnetosphere and caused the most-intense geomagnetic storm of 2005 with a Disturbed Storm Time (Dst) index reaching −263 nT at its peak. The terrestrial environment responded to the storm on a global scale. We have combined observations and measurements from coronal and interplanetary remote-sensing instruments, interplanetary and near-Earth in-situ measurements, remote-sensing observations and in-situ measurements of the terrestrial magnetosphere and ionosphere, along with coronal and heliospheric modelling. These analyses are used to trace the origin, development, propagation, terrestrial impact, and subsequent consequences of this event to obtain the most comprehensive view of a geo-effective solar eruption to date. This particular event is also part of a NASA-sponsored Living With a Star (LWS) study and an on-going US NSF-sponsored Solar, Heliospheric, and INterplanetary Environment (SHINE) community investigation.

An event-based approach to validating solar wind speed predictions: high-speed enhancements in the Wang-Sheeley-Arge model

One of the primary goals of the Center for Integrated Space Weather Modeling (CISM) effort is to assess and improve prediction of the solar wind conditions in near‐Earth space, arising from both quasi‐steady and transient structures. We compare 8 years of L1 in situ observations to predictions of the solar wind speed made by the Wang‐Sheeley‐Arge (WSA) empirical model. The mean‐square error (MSE) between the observed and model predictions is used to reach a number of useful conclusions: there is no systematic lag in the WSA predictions, the MSE is found to be highest at solar minimum and lowest during the rise to solar maximum, and the optimal lead time for 1 AU solar wind speed predictions is found to be 3 days. However, MSE is shown to frequently be an inadequate “figure of merit” for assessing solar wind speed predictions. A complementary, event‐based analysis technique is developed in which high‐speed enhancements (HSEs) are systematically selected and associated from observed and model time series. WSA model is validated using comparisons of the number of hit, missed, and false HSEs, along with the timing and speed magnitude errors between the forecasted and observed events. Morphological differences between the different HSE populations are investigated to aid interpretation of the results and improvements to the model. Finally, by defining discrete events in the time series, model predictions from above and below the ecliptic plane can be used to estimate an uncertainty in the predicted HSE arrival times.

A survey of gradual solar energetic particle events

We develop a database of 110 gradual solar energetic particle (SEP) events, over the period 1967–2006, providing estimates of event onset, duration, fluence, and peak flux for protons of energy E > 60 MeV. The database is established mainly from the energetic proton flux data distributed in the OMNI 2 data set; however, we also utilize the McMurdo neutron monitor and the energetic proton flux from GOES missions. To aid the development of the gradual SEP database, we establish a method with which the homogeneity of the energetic proton flux record is improved. A comparison between other SEP databases and the database developed here is presented which discusses the different algorithms used to define an event. Furthermore, we investigate the variation of gradual SEP occurrence and fluence with solar cycle phase, sunspot number (SSN), and interplanetary magnetic field intensity (Bmag) over solar cycles 20–23. We find that the occurrence and fluence of SEP events vary with the solar cycle phase. Correspondingly, we find a positive correlation between SEP occurrence and solar activity as determined by SSN and Bmag, while the mean fluence in individual events decreases with the same measures of solar activity. Therefore, although the number of events decreases when solar activity is low, the events that do occur at such times have higher fluence. Thus, large events such as the “Carrington flare” may be more likely at lower levels of solar activity. These results are discussed in the context of other similar investigations.

Influence of short-term solar disturbances on the fair weather conduction current

The fair weather atmospheric electrical current (Jz) couples the ionosphere to the lower atmosphere and thus provides a route by which changes in solar activity can modify processes in the lower troposphere. This paper examines the temporal variations and spectral characteristics of continuous measurements of Jz conducted at the Wise Observatory in Mitzpe-Ramon, Israel (30°35′ N, 34°45′ E), during two large CMEs, and during periods of increased solar wind density. Evidence is presented for the effects of geomagnetic storms and sub-storms on low latitude Jz during two coronal mass ejections (CMEs), on 24–25th October 2011 and 7–8th March 2012, when the variability in Jz increased by an order of magnitude compared to normal fair weather conditions. The dynamic spectrum of the increased Jz fluctuations exhibit peaks in the Pc5 frequency range. Similar low frequency characteristics occur during periods of enhanced solar wind proton density. During the October 2011 event, the periods of increased fluctuations in Jz lasted for 7 h and coincided with fluctuations of the inter-planetary magnetic field (IMF) detected by the ACE satellite. We suggest downward mapping of ionospheric electric fields as a possible mechanism for the increased fluctuations.

Modeling the observed proton aurora and ionospheric convection responses to changes in the IMF clock angle: 1. Persistence of cusp proton aurora

We employ a numerical model of cusp ion precipitation and proton aurora emission to fit variations of the peak Doppler-shifted Lyman-a intensity observed on 26 November 2000 by the SI-12 channel of the FUV instrument on the IMAGE satellite. The major features of this event appeared in response to two brief swings of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) toward a southward orientation. We reproduce the observed spatial distributions of this emission on newly opened field lines by combining the proton emission model with a model of the response of ionospheric convection. The simulations are based on the observed variations of the solar wind proton temperature and concentration and the interplanetary magnetic field clock angle. They also allow for the efficiency, sampling rate, integration time and spatial resolution of the FUV instrument. The good match (correlation coefficient 0.91, significant at the 98% level) between observed and modeled variations confirms the time constant (about 4 min) for the rise and decay of the proton emissions predicted by the model for southward IMF conditions. The implications for the detection of pulsed magnetopause reconnection using proton aurora are discussed for a range of interplanetary conditions.

Measurement of the underlying event in the Drell-Yan process in proton-proton collisions at root s=7 TeV

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)