Exploring socioeconomic impacts of forest based mitigation projects: Lessons from Brazil and Bolivia

This paper aims to contribute new insights globally and regionally on how carbon forest mitigation contributes to sustainable development in South America. Carbon finance has emerged as a potential policy option to tackling global climate change, degradation of forests, and social development in poor countries. This paper focuses on evaluating the socioeconomic impacts of a set of forest based mitigation pilot projects that emerged under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. The paper reviews research conducted in 2001–2002, drawing from empirical data from four pilot projects, derived from qualitative stakeholder interviews, and complemented by policy documents and literature. Of the four projects studied three are located in frontier areas, where there are considerable pressures for conversion of standing forest to agriculture. In this sense, forest mitigation projects have a substantial role to play in the region. Findings suggest however, that all four projects have experienced cumbersome implementation processes specifically, due to weak social objectives, poor communication, as well as time constraints. In three out of four cases, stakeholders highlighted limited local acceptance at the implementation stages. In the light of these findings, we discuss opportunities for implementation of future forest based mitigation projects in the land use sector.

The socioeconomic impacts of synthetic fuels [microform] : hearing before the Subcommittee on Energy Development and Applications of the Committee on Science and Technology, U.S. House of Representatives, Ninety-seventh Congress, second session, April 28, 1982.

"No. 125."

Soil and Water Conservation Strategies in Cape Verde (Cabo Verde in Portuguese) and Their Impacts on Livelihoods - An Overview from the Ribeira Seca Watershed

Severe land degradation has strongly affected both people’s livelihood and the environment in Cape Verde (Cabo Verde in Portuguese), a natural resource poor country. Despite the enormous investment in soil and water conservation measures (SWC or SLM), which are visible throughout the landscape, and the recognition of their benefits, their biophysical and socioeconomic impacts have been poorly assessed and scientifically documented. This paper contributes to filling this gap, by bringing together insights from literature and policy review, field survey and participatory assessment in the Ribeira Seca Watershed through a concerted approach devised by the DESIRE project (the “Desire approach”). Specifically, we analyze government strategies towards building resilience against the harsh conditions, analyze the state of land degradation and its drivers, survey and map the existing SWC measures, and assess their effectiveness against land degradation, on crop yield and people’s livelihood. We infer that the relative success of Cape Verde in tackling desertification and rural poverty owes to an integrated governance strategy that comprises raising awareness, institutional framework development, financial resource allocation, capacity building, and active participation of rural communities. We recommend that specific, scientific-based monitoring and assessment studies be carried out on the biophysical and socioeconomic impact of SLM and that the “Desire approach” be scaled-up to other watersheds in the country.

Ex-ante evaluation by the media of the Guimarães 2012 European Capital of Culture

The nomination of Guimarães to host the 2012 European Capital of Culture (ECC) has put on the agenda of the city the need of measuring the effects that the implementation of this mega event could have in it and in the municipality a whole. The balance of the benefits and costs and an extended community involvement tend to reduce negative impacts and enhance positive ones. This chapter analyzes the involvement of population and local associations in the planning and organization of the 2012 Guimarães European Capital of Culture, using the coverage made during 2011 by local and national press of the mega event. A content analysis of the news published covering the period between January and December 2011 and using three newspapers was conducted. From those, two were local and weekly newspapers and one was a national daily one. Looking to data results, it can be concluded that it was poor the community involvement and, also, the one of the cultural associations in the organizations of the 2012 ECC. A strong negative reaction to the model choose to plan the mega event conducted by official organizers was found, which has cast doubts on the desirable participation of the residents and, consequently, on the success of the mega event, especially in a perspective of a medium and long term effects.

Ex-ante evaluation by the media of the Guimarães 2012 European Capital of Culture

The nomination of Guimarães to host the 2012 European Capital of Culture (ECC) has put on the agenda of the city the need of measuring the effects that the implementation of this mega event could have in it and in the municipality a whole. The balance of the benefits and costs and an extended community involvement tend to reduce negative impacts and enhance positive ones. This chapter analyzes the involvement of population and local associations in the planning and organization of the 2012 Guimarães European Capital of Culture, using the coverage made during 2011 by local and national press of the mega event. A content analysis of the news published covering the period between January and December 2011 and using three newspapers was conducted. From those, two were local and weekly newspapers and one was a national daily one. Looking to data results, it can be concluded that it was poor the community involvement and, also, the one of the cultural associations in the organizations of the 2012 ECC. A strong negative reaction to the model choose to plan the mega event conducted by official organizers was found, which has cast doubts on the desirable participation of the residents and, consequently, on the success of the mega event, especially in a perspective of a medium and long term effects.

An analysis of the metabolic patterns of two rural communities affected by soy expansion in the North of Argentina

The soy expansion model in Argentina generates structural changes in traditional lifestyles that can be associated with different biophysical and socioeconomic impacts. To explore this issue, we apply an innovative method for integrated assessment - the Multi Scale Integrated Analysis of Societal and Ecosystem Metabolism (MuSIASEM) framework - to characterize two communities in the Chaco Region, Province of Formosa, North of Argentina. These communities have recently experienced the expansion of soy production, altering their economic activity, energy consumption patterns, land use, and human time allocation. The integrated characterization presented in the paper illustrates the differences (biophysical, socioeconomic, and historical) between the two communities that can be associated with different responses. The analysis of the factors behind these differences has important policy implications for the sustainable development of local communities in the area.

Living and fishing in a marine protected area : balancing traditional fisheries with conservation in Karimunjawa National Park, Indonesia

Cette recherche a porté sur quelques enjeux importants liés à la gestion des aires marines protégées (AMP) en Indonésie en examinant comment celles-ci sont en mesure d'adapter leurs politiques afin de mieux répondre à l'évolution des conditions socioéconomiques et écologiques, quels ont été les impacts socioéconomiques de ces aires, et quelles sont les préoccupations environnementales des acteurs locaux dont les moyens de subsistance dépendent des ressources règlementées. Le «livelihoods framework » a servi de guide pour notre analyse des changements socioéconomiques dans la région, tandis que la notion d’« environmentality » d’Agrawal a fourni les bases théoriques pour l'examen de la formation de sujets environnementaux au parc national de Karimunjawa. Cette étude a montré que les changements de politique apportés au plan de la gestion du parc sont un pas dans la bonne direction, mais que les objectifs importants liés sa cogestion n'ont jamais été entièrement réalisés dans la pratique. Les résultats montrent également que d'importants changements socioéconomiques surviennent dans le parc, de nombreux pêcheurs se tournent vers des moyens de subsistance alternatifs, afin de compenser la baisse des prises de poissons. Enfin, cette étude a révélé que d'importants changements positifs dans les préoccupations environnementales sont survenus depuis la modification du zonage du parc, mais que ceux-ci ne se sont pas entièrement traduits en conformité avec les règles et règlements de l'AMP.

Alternativas para la medición de impactos de los desastres naturales

The present article corresponds to the main aspects analyzed in development of the investigation denominated “Adaptation of a Methodology of Evaluation of Socioeconomic Impacts of Natural Disasters for realized Colombia” with the support of Colciencias and the Fundación Universitaria del Area Andina, university that has come intruding in the thematic one with the purpose of incorporating it systematically in the different academic programs that it imparts. Initially the intervention methodologies in front of the disasters were proposed by the World Organization of the Health and for the aid organisms, as the Cruz Roja and the Defensa Civil, since it was to assist you kill. In the measure in that one has come understanding that you kill besides assisting, he/she needs to recover the lost development conditions of affected people and that you kill them they are civic with economic, social and political rights, the topic is expanded to other fi elds that it puts of present the necessity of more understanding and more integral methodologies that they involve the emergency attention, the later attention of rehabilitation, the reconstruction and the prevention in front of future events that can cause new  disasters.

An Integrated Assessment of changes in the thermohaline circulation

This paper discusses the risks of a shutdown of the thermohaline circulation (THC) for the climate system, for ecosystems in and around the North Atlantic as well as for fisheries and agriculture by way of an Integrated Assessment. The climate model simulations are based on greenhouse gas scenarios for the 21st century and beyond. A shutdown of the THC, complete by 2150, is triggered if increased freshwater input from inland ice melt or enhanced runoff is assumed. The shutdown retards the greenhouse gas-induced atmospheric warming trend in the Northern Hemisphere, but does not lead to a persistent net cooling. Due to the simulated THC shutdown the sea level at the North Atlantic shores rises by up to 80 cm by 2150, in addition to the global sea level rise. This could potentially be a serious impact that requires expensive coastal protection measures. A reduction of marine net primary productivity is associated with the impacts of warming rather than a THC shutdown. Regional shifts in the currents in the Nordic Seas could strongly deteriorate survival chances for cod larvae and juveniles. This could lead to cod fisheries becoming unprofitable by the end of the 21st century. While regional socioeconomic impacts might be large, damages would be probably small in relation to the respective gross national products. Terrestrial ecosystem productivity is affected much more by the fertilization from the increasing CO2 concentration than by a THC shutdown. In addition, the level of warming in the 22nd to 24th century favours crop production in northern Europe a lot, no matter whether the THC shuts down or not. CO2 emissions corridors aimed at limiting the risk of a THC breakdown to 10% or less are narrow, requiring departure from business-as-usual in the next few decades. The uncertainty about THC risks is still high. This is seen in model analyses as well as in the experts’ views that were elicited. The overview of results presented here is the outcome of the Integrated Assessment project INTEGRATION.

Synoptic preconditions for extreme flooding during the summer Asian Monsoon in the Mumbai area

The summer monsoon season is an important hydrometeorological feature of the Indian subcontinent and it has significant socioeconomic impacts. This study is aimed at understanding the processes associated with the occurrence of catastrophic flood events. The study has two novel features that add to the existing body of knowledge about the South Asian Monsoon: 1) combine traditional hydrometeorological observations (rain gauge measurements) with unconventional data (media and state historical records of reported flooding) to produce value-added century-long time-series of potential flood events, and 2) identify the larger regional synoptic conditions leading to days with flood potential in the time-series. The promise of mining unconventional data to extend hydrometeorological records is demonstrated in this study. The synoptic evolution of flooding events in the western-central coast of India and the densely populated Mumbai area are shown to correspond to active monsoon periods with embedded low-pressure centers and have far upstream influence from the western edge of the Indian Ocean basin. The coastal processes along the Arabian Peninsula where the currents interact with the continental shelf are found to be key features of extremes during the South Asian Monsoon

Serial clustering of extratropical cyclones over the North Atlantic and Europe under recent and future climate conditions

Under particular large-scale atmospheric conditions, several windstorms may affect Europe within a short time period. The occurrence of such cyclone families leads to large socioeconomic impacts and cumulative losses. The serial clustering of windstorms is analyzed for the North Atlantic/western Europe. Clustering is quantified as the dispersion (ratio variance/mean) of cyclone passages over a certain area. Dispersion statistics are derived for three reanalysis data sets and a 20-run European Centre Hamburg Version 5 /Max Planck Institute Version–Ocean Model Version 1 global climate model (ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM) ensemble. The dependence of the seriality on cyclone intensity is analyzed. Confirming previous studies, serial clustering is identified in reanalysis data sets primarily on both flanks and downstream regions of the North Atlantic storm track. This pattern is a robust feature in the reanalysis data sets. For the whole area, extreme cyclones cluster more than nonextreme cyclones. The ECHAM5/MPI-OM1 GCM is generally able to reproduce the spatial patterns of clustering under recent climate conditions, but some biases are identified. Under future climate conditions (A1B scenario), the GCM ensemble indicates that serial clustering may decrease over the North Atlantic storm track area and parts of western Europe. This decrease is associated with an extension of the polar jet toward Europe, which implies a tendency to a more regular occurrence of cyclones over parts of the North Atlantic Basin poleward of 50°N and western Europe. An increase of clustering of cyclones is projected south of Newfoundland. The detected shifts imply a change in the risk of occurrence of cumulative events over Europe under future climate conditions.

Can dynamically downscaled windstorm footprints be improved by observations through a probabilistic approach?

Windstorms are a main feature of the European climate and exert strong socioeconomic impacts. Large effort has been made in developing and enhancing models to simulate the intensification of windstorms, resulting footprints, and associated impacts. Simulated wind or gust speeds usually differ from observations, as regional climate models have biases and cannot capture all local effects. An approach to adjust regional climate model (RCM) simulations of wind and wind gust toward observations is introduced. For this purpose, 100 windstorms are selected and observations of 173 (111) test sites of the German Weather Service are considered for wind (gust) speed. Theoretical Weibull distributions are fitted to observed and simulated wind and gust speeds, and the distribution parameters of the observations are interpolated onto the RCM computational grid. A probability mapping approach is applied to relate the distributions and to correct the modeled footprints. The results are not only achieved for single test sites but for an area-wide regular grid. The approach is validated using root-mean-square errors on event and site basis, documenting that the method is generally able to adjust the RCM output toward observations. For gust speeds, an improvement on 88 of 100 events and at about 64% of the test sites is reached. For wind, 99 of 100 improved events and ~84% improved sites can be obtained. This gives confidence on the potential of the introduced approach for many applications, in particular those considering wind data.

Previsão estocástica de nível fluviométrico para cidade de Marabá-PA: método de Box-Jenkins

O Município de Marabá- PA, situado na região Amazônica, sudeste do Estado do Pará, sofre anualmente com eventos de enchentes, ocasionados pelo aumento periódico do rio Tocantins e pela situação de vulnerabilidade da população que reside em áreas de risco. A defesa civil estadual e municipal anualmente planeja e prepara equipes para ações de defesa no município. Nesta fase o monitoramento e previsão de eventos de enchentes são importantes. Portanto, com o objetivo de diminuir erros nas previsões hidrológicas para o Município de Marabá, desenvolveu-se um modelo estocástico para previsão de nível do rio Tocantins, baseado na metodologia de Box e Jenkins. Utilizou os dados de níveis diários observados nas estações hidrológicas de Marabá e Carolina e Conceição do Araguaia da Agência Nacional de Águas (ANA), do período de 01/12/ 2008 a 31/03/2011. Efetuou-se o ajustamento de três modelos (M_t, N_t e Y_t), através de diferentes aplicativos estatísticos: o SAS e o Gretl, usando diferentes interpretações do comportamento das séries para gerar as equações dos modelos. A principal diferença entre os aplicativos é que no SAS usa o modelo de função de transferência na modelagem. Realizou-se uma classificação da variabilidade do nível do rio, através da técnica dos Quantis para o período de 1972 a 2011, examinando-se apenas as categorizações de níveis ACIMA e MUITO ACIMA do normal. Para análise de impactos socioeconômicos foram usados os dados das ações da Defesa Civil Estado do Pará nas cheias de 2009 e 2011. Os resultados mostraram que o número de eventos de cheias com níveis MUITO ACIMA do normal, geralmente, podem estar associados a eventos de La Niña. Outro resultado importante: os modelos gerados simularam muito bem o nível do rio para o período de sete dias (01/04/2011 a 07/04/2011). O modelo multivariado N_t (com pequenos erros) representou o comportamento da série original, subestimando os valores reais nos dias 3, 4 e 5 de abril de 2011, com erro máximo de 0,28 no dia 4. O modelo univariado (Y_t) teve bons resultados nas simulações com erros absolutos em torno de 0,12 m. O modelo com menor erro absoluto (0,08m) para o mesmo período foi o modelo M_t, desenvolvido pelo aplicativo SAS, que interpreta a série original como sendo não linear e não estacionária. A análise quantitativa dos impactos fluviométricos, ocorridos nas enchentes de 2009 e 2011 na cidade de Marabá, revelou em média que mais de 4 mil famílias sofrem com estes eventos, implicado em gastos financeiros elevados. Logo, conclui-se que os modelos de previsão de níveis são importantes ferramentas que a Defesa Civil, utiliza no planejamento e preparo de ações preventivas para o município de Marabá.

Concentração, integração horizontal e vertical das usinas canavieiras

Pós-graduação em Agronomia - FEIS