Bankruptcy Situation Model in Small Business: The Case of Restaurant Firms

The purpose of this paper is to describe and discuss the current bankruptcy prediction models. This is done in the context of pros and cons of proposed models to determine the appropriate factors of failure phenomenon in cases involving restaurants that have filed for bankruptcy under Chapter 11. A sample of 11 restaurant companies that filed for bankruptcy between 1993 and 2003 were identified from the Form 8-K reported to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). By applying financial ratios retrieved from the annual reports which contain, income statements, balance sheets, statements of cash flows, and statements of stockholders’ equity (or deficit) to the Atlman’s mode, Springate model, and Fulmer’s model. The study found that Atlman’s model for the non-manufacturing industry provided the most accurate bankruptcy predictions.

Influence du vieillissement sur la réorganisation cérébrale dans la compréhension du discours : apport de l’imagerie optique

Au cours du vieillissement, des modifications dans la compréhension du discours ont été rapportées, attribuées en partie aux changements cognitifs encourus lors du vieillissement. Néanmoins, diverses études suggèrent une réorganisation cérébrale lors du vieillissement. Cette étude a pour but d'évaluer l'influence de l'âge lors d'une tâche de compréhension du discours à l'aide de l'imagerie optique. Comme première hypothèse, il est attendu que les participants jeunes auront plus de bonnes réponses au niveau des micropropositions et des macropropositions et des performances équivalentes au niveau du modèle de situation. La deuxième hypothèse est que les réseaux neuronaux utilisés lors de la compréhension du discours subiront une réorganisation cérébrale lors du vieillissement. Trente-deux participants ont pris part à cette étude : 16 jeunes adultes et 16 adultes âgés. Alors que les participants étaient sous enregistrement en imagerie optique au niveau du cortex préfrontal (CPF), ils ont lu des courtes histoires chacune suivie d’une phrase et devaient décider si elle était en accord ou non avec la précédente histoire. Les résultats ne montrent aucune différence entre les groupes au niveau de l’exactitude des réponses, contrairement à la littérature. Le CPF a été davantage activé par les adultes âgés comparativement aux jeunes adultes témoignant d’une réorganisation cérébrale.

Evaluation and revision of inferential comprehension in narrative texts: an eye movement study

We investigated the processes of how adult readers evaluate and revise their situation model during reading by monitoring their eye movements as they read narrative texts and subsequent critical sentences. In each narrative text, a short introduction primed a knowledge-based inference, followed by a target concept that was either expected (e.g., “oven”) or unexpected (e.g., “grill”) in relation to the inferred concept. Eye movements showed that readers detected a mismatch between the new unexpected information and their prior interpretation, confirming their ability to evaluate inferential information. Just below the narrative text, a critical sentence included a target word that was either congruent (e.g., “roasted”) or incongruent (e.g., “barbecued”) with the expected but not the unexpected concept. Readers spent less time reading the congruent than the incongruent target word, reflecting the facilitation of prior information. In addition, when the unexpected (but not expected) concept had been presented, participants with lower verbal (but not visuospatial) working memory span exhibited longer reading times and made more regressions (from the critical sentence to previous information) on encountering congruent information, indicating difficulty in inhibiting their initial incorrect interpretation and revising their situation model

Propositional and situational representations of text

Two informationally equivalent texts were constructed which described a fictitious town, emphasizing its spatial layout. In one version (Survey text), spatial information was in geographic terms, while in the other version (Route text), the equivalent information was provided in the form of directions for driving through the town. Subjects recalled these texts and verified old as well as inference statements. In Experiment I, subjects were able to recall the texts quite well, while showing little ability to use the information they had acquired to make inferences about spatial relations in the town which had not been directly stated in the text. With simpler texts, subjects in Experiment II were able to make infereces, especially when the form of the question corresponded to the version of the text they had read. It was concluded that free recall depended on the construction of a propositional textbase during comprehension, while inferences required a situation model, either in the form of a mental map or a procedural representation of the town. It could be shown that the form of the situation model depended on both the representation invited by the text and subject biases.

Measuring Spatial Presence: Introducing and Validating the Pictorial Presence SAM

The aim of the present study was to develop a pictorial presence scale using selfassessment- manikins (SAM). The instrument assesses presence sub-dimensions (selflocation and possible actions) as well as presence determinants (attention allocation, spatial situation model, higher cognitive involvement, and suspension of disbelief). To qualitatively validate the scale, think-aloud protocols and interviews (n = 12) were conducted. The results reveal that the SAM items are quickly filled out as well as easily, intuitively, and unambiguously understood. Furthermore, the instrument’s validity and sensitivity was quantitatively examined in a two-factorial design (n = 317). Factors were medium (written story, audio book, video, and computer game) and distraction (non-distraction vs. distraction). Factor analyses reveal that the SAM presence dimensions and determinants closely correspond to those of the MEC Spatial Presence Questionnaire, which was used as a comparison measure. The findings of the qualitative and quantitative validation procedures show that the Pictorial Presence SAM successfully assesses spatial presence. In contrast to the verbal questionnaire data (MEC), the significant distraction effect suggests that the new scale is even more sensitive. This points out that the scale can be a useful alternative to existing verbal presence selfreport measures.

Comparasion of road traffic emission models in Madrid (Spain)

Many cities in Europe have difficulties to meet the air quality standards set by the European legislation, most particularly the annual mean Limit Value for NO2. Road transport is often the main source of air pollution in urban areas and therefore, there is an increasing need to estimate current and future traffic emissions as accurately as possible. As a consequence, a number of specific emission models and emission factors databases have been developed recently. They present important methodological differences and may result in largely diverging emission figures and thus may lead to alternative policy recommendations. This study compares two approaches to estimate road traffic emissions in Madrid (Spain): the COmputer Programme to calculate Emissions from Road Transport (COPERT4 v.8.1) and the Handbook Emission Factors for Road Transport (HBEFA v.3.1), representative of the ‘average-speed’ and ‘traffic situation’ model types respectively. The input information (e.g. fleet composition, vehicle kilometres travelled, traffic intensity, road type, etc.) was provided by the traffic model developed by the Madrid City Council along with observations from field campaigns. Hourly emissions were computed for nearly 15 000 road segments distributed in 9 management areas covering the Madrid city and surroundings. Total annual NOX emissions predicted by HBEFA were a 21% higher than those of COPERT. The discrepancies for NO2 were lower (13%) since resulting average NO2/NOX ratios are lower for HBEFA. The larger differences are related to diesel vehicle emissions under “stop & go” traffic conditions, very common in distributor/secondary roads of the Madrid metropolitan area. In order to understand the representativeness of these results, the resulting emissions were integrated in an urban scale inventory used to drive mesoscale air quality simulations with the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modelling system (1 km2 resolution). Modelled NO2 concentrations were compared with observations through a series of statistics. Although there are no remarkable differences between both model runs, the results suggest that HBEFA may overestimate traffic emissions. However, the results are strongly influenced by methodological issues and limitations of the traffic model. This study was useful to provide a first alternative estimate to the official emission inventory in Madrid and to identify the main features of the traffic model that should be improved to support the application of an emission system based on “real world” emission factors.

Conceptual Foundations of Construction of the Models and Procedures for Prediction of the Avalanche-dangerous Situations Initiation

The conceptual foundations of the models and procedures for prediction of the avalanche-dangerous situations initiation are considered. The interpretation model for analysis of the avalanche-dangerous situations initiation based on the definition of probabilities of correspondence of studied parameters to the probabilistic distributions of avalanche-dangerous or avalanche non-dangerous situations is offered. The possibility to apply such a model to the real data is considered. The main approaches to the use of multiple representations for the avalanche dangerous situations initiation analysis are generalized.

Influence du vieillissement et de la scolarité sur la compréhension du discours : apport de l’imagerie optique

La compréhension du discours, et son évolution au cours du vieillissement, constitue un sujet d’une grande importance par sa complexité et sa place dans la préservation de la qualité de vie des aînés. Les objectifs de cette thèse étaient d’évaluer l’influence du vieillissement et du niveau de scolarité sur les capacités de compréhension du discours et sur l’activité cérébrale s’y rattachant. Pour ce faire, trois groupes (jeunes adultes ayant un niveau universitaire de scolarité, personnes âgées ayant un niveau universitaire de scolarité et personnes âgées ayant un niveau secondaire de scolarité) ont réalisé une tâche où ils devaient lire de courtes histoires, puis estimer la véracité d’une affirmation concernant cette histoire. Les capacités de compréhension correspondant aux traitements de trois niveaux du modèle de construction-intégration de Kintsch (la microstructure, la macrostructure et le modèle de situation) ont été évaluées. L’imagerie optique (NIRS) a permis d’estimer les variations d’oxyhémoglobine (HbO) et de déoxyhémoglobine (HbR) tout au long de la tâche. Les résultats ont démontré que les personnes âgées étaient aussi aptes que les plus jeunes pour rappeler la macrostructure (essentiel du texte), mais qu’ils avaient plus de difficulté à rappeler la microstructure (détails) et le modèle de situation (inférence et intégration) suite à la lecture de courts textes. Lors de la lecture, les participants plus âgés ont également montré une plus grande activité cérébrale dans le cortex préfrontal dorsolatéral gauche, ce qui pourrait être un mécanisme de compensation tel que décrit dans le modèle CRUNCH. Aucune différence significative n’a été observée lors de la comparaison des participants âgés ayant un niveau universitaire de scolarité et ceux ayant un niveau secondaire, tant au niveau des capacités de compréhension que de l’activité cérébrale s’y rattachant. Les deux groupes ont cependant des habitudes de vie stimulant la cognition, entre autres, de bonnes habitudes de lecture. Ainsi, ces habitudes semblent avoir une plus grande influence que l’éducation sur les performances en compréhension et sur l’activité cérébrale sous-jacente. Il se pourrait donc que l’éducation influence la cognition en promouvant des habitudes favorisant les activités cognitives, et que ce soit ces habitudes qui aient en bout ligne un réel impact sur le vieillissement cognitif.

Influence du vieillissement et de la scolarité sur la compréhension du discours : apport de l’imagerie optique

La compréhension du discours, et son évolution au cours du vieillissement, constitue un sujet d’une grande importance par sa complexité et sa place dans la préservation de la qualité de vie des aînés. Les objectifs de cette thèse étaient d’évaluer l’influence du vieillissement et du niveau de scolarité sur les capacités de compréhension du discours et sur l’activité cérébrale s’y rattachant. Pour ce faire, trois groupes (jeunes adultes ayant un niveau universitaire de scolarité, personnes âgées ayant un niveau universitaire de scolarité et personnes âgées ayant un niveau secondaire de scolarité) ont réalisé une tâche où ils devaient lire de courtes histoires, puis estimer la véracité d’une affirmation concernant cette histoire. Les capacités de compréhension correspondant aux traitements de trois niveaux du modèle de construction-intégration de Kintsch (la microstructure, la macrostructure et le modèle de situation) ont été évaluées. L’imagerie optique (NIRS) a permis d’estimer les variations d’oxyhémoglobine (HbO) et de déoxyhémoglobine (HbR) tout au long de la tâche. Les résultats ont démontré que les personnes âgées étaient aussi aptes que les plus jeunes pour rappeler la macrostructure (essentiel du texte), mais qu’ils avaient plus de difficulté à rappeler la microstructure (détails) et le modèle de situation (inférence et intégration) suite à la lecture de courts textes. Lors de la lecture, les participants plus âgés ont également montré une plus grande activité cérébrale dans le cortex préfrontal dorsolatéral gauche, ce qui pourrait être un mécanisme de compensation tel que décrit dans le modèle CRUNCH. Aucune différence significative n’a été observée lors de la comparaison des participants âgés ayant un niveau universitaire de scolarité et ceux ayant un niveau secondaire, tant au niveau des capacités de compréhension que de l’activité cérébrale s’y rattachant. Les deux groupes ont cependant des habitudes de vie stimulant la cognition, entre autres, de bonnes habitudes de lecture. Ainsi, ces habitudes semblent avoir une plus grande influence que l’éducation sur les performances en compréhension et sur l’activité cérébrale sous-jacente. Il se pourrait donc que l’éducation influence la cognition en promouvant des habitudes favorisant les activités cognitives, et que ce soit ces habitudes qui aient en bout ligne un réel impact sur le vieillissement cognitif.

Spójność multimodalnego przekazu reporterskiego w krótkiej relacji telewizyjnej "na żywo"

Wydział Neofilologii

WATER RESOURCES SITUATION AT PIRACICABA, CAPIVARI AND JUNDIAI WATERSHEDS USING A DYNAMIC SYSTEMS MODEL

Using a dynamic systems model specifically developed for Piracicaba, Capivari and Jundia River Water Basins (BH-PCJ) as a tool to help to analyze water resources management alternatives for policy makers and decision takers, five simulations for 50 years timeframe were performed. The model estimates water supply and demand, as well as wastewater generation from the consumers at BH-PCJ. A run was performed using mean precipitation value constant, and keeping the actual water supply and demand rates, the business as usual scenario. Under these considerations, it is expected an increment of about similar to 76% on water demand, that similar to 39% of available water volume will come from wastewater reuse, and that waste load increases to similar to 91%. Falkenmark Index will change from 1,403 m(3) person(-1) year(-1) in 2004, to 734 m(3) P(-1) year(-1) by 2054, and the Sustainability Index from 0.44 to 0.20. Another four simulations were performed by affecting the annual precipitation by 90 and 110%; considering an ecological flow equal to 30% of the mean daily flow; and keeping the same rates for all other factors except for ecological flow and household water consumption. All of them showed a tendency to a water crisis in the near future at BH-PCJ.

Upgrade of an industrial building: BIM model of the as-built situation and evaluation of modifications

Dissertação de mestrado integrado in Civil Engineering

The employment situation in Latin America and the Caribbean: Recovery of employment: towards a sustainable model

The adverse effects on Latin America and the Caribbean of the global economic and financial crisis, the worst since the 1930s, have been considerably less than was once feared. Although a run of growth was cut short in 2009 and regional output shrank by 1.9%, the impact of the crisis was limited by the application of countercyclical fiscal and monetary policies by many of the region’s governments. The recovery in the economies, particularly in South America, has gone hand-in-hand with the rapid resurgence of the emerging economies of Asia, with all the favourable consequences this has had for global trade. A similar pattern may be observed regarding the impact of the crisis on labour markets in Latin America and the Caribbean. Although millions of people lost their jobs or had to trade down to lower-quality work, levels of employment (including formal employment) fell by less than originally foreseen. At the same time, real wages rose slightly in a context of falling inflation. The labour market thus stabilized domestic demand, and this contributed to the recovery that began in many countries in late 2009. Improved international trade and financing conditions, and the pick-up in domestic demand driven by macroeconomic policies, have led different commentators to estimate growth in the region’s economy at some 6% in 2010. As detailed in the first part of this edition of the Bulletin, the upturn has been manifested at the regional level by the creation of formal employment, a rise in the employment rate, a decline in joblessness and a moderate increase in real wages. Specifically, it is estimatedthat the regional unemployment rate will have dropped by 0.6 percentage points, from 8.1% in 2009 to 7.5% in 2010. The performance of different countries and subregions has been very uneven, however. On the one hand, there is Brazil, where high economic growth has been accompanied by vigorous creation of formal jobs and the unemployment rate has dropped to levels not seen in a long time. Other countries in South America have benefited from strong demand for natural resources from the Asian countries. Combined with higher domestic demand, this has raised their economic growth rates and had a positive impact on employment indicators. On the other hand, the recovery is still very weak in certain countries and subregions, particularly in the Caribbean, with employment indicators continuing to worsen.Thus, the recovery in the region’s economy in 2010 may be characterized as dynamic but uneven. Growth estimates for 2011 are less favourable. The risks associated with the imbalances in the world economy and the withdrawal of countercyclical fiscal packages are likely to cause the region to grow more slowly in 2011. Accordingly, a small further reduction of between 0.2 and 0.4 percentage points in the unemployment rate is projected for 2011. However, these indicators of recovery do not guarantee growth with decent work in the long term. To bolster the improvement in labour market indicators and generate more productive employment and decent work, the region’s countries need to strengthen their macroeconomic policies, improve regional and global policy coordination, identify and remove bottlenecks in the labour market itself and enhance instruments designed to promote greater equality. Like the rest of the world, the Latin American and Caribbean region is also confronted with the challenge of transforming the way it produces so that its economies can develop along tracks that are sustainable in the long term. Climate change and the consequent challenge of developing and strengthening low-carbon production and consumption patterns will also affect the way people work. A great challenge ahead is to create green jobs that combine decent work with environmentally sustainable production patterns. From this perspective, the second part of this Bulletin discusses the green jobs approach, offering some information on the challenges and opportunities involved in moving towards a sustainable economy in the region and presenting a set of options for addressing environmental issues and the repercussions of climate change in the world of work. Although the debate about the green jobs concept is fairly new in the region, examples already exist and a number of countries have moved ahead with the application of policies and programmes in this area. Costa Rica has formulated a National Climate Change Strategy, for example, whose foremost achievements include professional training in natural-resource management. In Brazil, fuel production from biomass has increased and social housing with solar panelling is being built. A number of other countries in the region are making progress in areas such as ecotourism, sustainable agriculture and infrastructure for climate change adaptation, and in formalizing the work of people who recycle household waste. The shift towards a more environmentally sustainable economy may cause jobs to be destroyed in some economic sectors and created in others. The working world will inevitably undergo major changes. If the issue is approached by way of social dialogue and appropriate public policies, there is a chance to use this shift to create more decent jobs, thereby contributing to growth in the economy, the construction of higher levels of equality and protection for the environment.

Viability of using enamel and dentin from bovine origin as a substitute for human counterparts in an intraoral erosion model

This study ascertained whether under dental erosion models that closely mimics the real-life situation enamel and root dentin from bovine origin would be reliable substitutes for human counterparts. Through a 2x2 crossover design, in a first trial, 14 volunteers wore a palatal device containing slabs of bovine and human enamel. Half of the participants ingested (4x daily, for 10 days) orange juice first, crossing over to mineral water, while the remainder received the reverse sequence. In a second trial, volunteers wore devices with slabs of bovine and human root dentin. Except for the duration of each intraoral phase, which lasted 2 rather 10 days, the experiment with root dentin run exactly as for enamel. Dental substrates were analyzed for surface microhardness. Two-way ANOVAs (α=0.05) indicated no difference between the microhardness values recorded for human and bovine enamel (p=0.1350), but bovine root dentin had lower microhardness compared to its human counterpart (p=0.0432). While bovine enamel can reliably substitute its human counterpart in in situ dental erosion models, bovine root dentin does not seem to be a viable alternative to the corresponding human tissue.

Stability and in vitro penetration study of rutin incorporated in a cosmetic emulsion through an alternative model biomembrane

Rutin is employed as antioxidant and to prevent the capillary fragility and, when incorporated in cosmetic emulsions, it must target the action site. In vitro cutaneous penetration studies through human skin is the ideal situation, however, there are difficulties to obtain and to maintain this tissue viability. Among the membrane models, shed snake skin presents itself as pure stratum corneum, providing barrier function similar to human and it is obtained without the animal sacrifice. The objectives of this research were the development and stability evaluation of a cosmetic emulsion containing rutin and propylene glycol (penetration enhancer) and the evaluation or rutin in vitro cutaneous penetration and retention from the emulsion, employing an alternative model biomembrane. Emulsion was developed with rutin and propylene glycol, both at 5.0% w/w. Active substance presented on the formulation was quantified by a validated spectrophotometric method at 361.0 nm. Rutin Rutin cutaneous penetration and retention was performed in vertical diffusion cells with shed snake skin of Crotalus durissus, as alternative model biomembrane, and distilled water and ethanol 99.5% (1:1), as receptor fluid. The experiment was conducted for six hours, at 37.0 +/- 0.5 degrees C with constant stirring of 300 rpm. Spectrophotometry at 410.0 nm, previously validated, determined the active substance after cutaneous penetration/ retention. Emulsion did not promote rutin cutaneous penetration through C. durissus skin, retaining 0.931 +/- 0.0391 mu g rutin/mg shed snake skin. The referred formulation was chemically stable for 30 days after stored at 25.0 +/- 2.0 degrees C, 5.0 +/- 0.5 degrees C and 45.0 +/- 0.5 degrees C. In conclusion, it has not been verified the active cutaneous penetration through the model biomembrane, but only its retention on the Crotalus durissus stratum corneum, condition considered stable for 30 days.