Assessing severe Drought and wet events over India in a future climate using a nested bias-correction approach

General circulation models (GCMs) are routinely used to simulate future climatic conditions. However, rainfall outputs from GCMs are highly uncertain in preserving temporal correlations, frequencies, and intensity distributions, which limits their direct application for downscaling and hydrological modeling studies. To address these limitations, raw outputs of GCMs or regional climate models are often bias corrected using past observations. In this paper, a methodology is presented for using a nested bias-correction approach to predict the frequencies and occurrences of severe droughts and wet conditions across India for a 48-year period (2050-2099) centered at 2075. Specifically, monthly time series of rainfall from 17 GCMs are used to draw conclusions for extreme events. An increasing trend in the frequencies of droughts and wet events is observed. The northern part of India and coastal regions show maximum increase in the frequency of wet events. Drought events are expected to increase in the west central, peninsular, and central northeast regions of India. (C) 2013 American Society of Civil Engineers.

A 10,000 year record of dune activity；dust storms；and severe drought in the central Great Plains

IEECAS SKLLQG

1876-1878 severe drought in North China: Facts, impacts and climatic background

Chinese Academy of Sciences [KZCX2-YW-315-2]; National Natural Science Foundation of China [40701021, 40625002]; National Key Technology R&D Program of China [2007BAC03A01]

Quantifying the costs of drought : new evidence from life satisfaction data

We estimate the cost of droughts by matching rainfall data with individual life satisfaction. Our context is Australia over the period 2001 to 2004, which included a particularly severe drought. Using fixed-effect models, we find that a drought in spring has a detrimental effect on life satisfaction equivalent to an annual reduction in income of A$18,000. This effect, however, is only found for individuals living in rural areas. Using our estimates, we calculate that the predicted doubling of the frequency of spring droughts will lead to the equivalent loss in life satisfaction of just over 1% of GDP annually.

Drought stress characterization of post-rainy season (rabi) sorghum in India

During the post-rainy (rabi) season in India around 3 million tonnes of sorghum grain is produced from 5.7 million ha of cropping. This underpins the livelihood of about 5 million households. Severe drought is common as the crop grown in these areas relies largely on soil moisture stored during the preceding rainy season. Improvement of rabi sorghum cultivars through breeding has been slow but could be accelerated if drought scenarios in the production regions were better understood. The sorghum crop model within the APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator) platform was used to simulate crop growth and yield and the pattern of crop water status through each season using available historical weather data. The current model reproduced credibly the observed yield variation across the production region (R2=0.73). The simulated trajectories of drought stress through each crop season were clustered into five different drought stress patterns. A majority of trajectories indicated terminal drought (43%) with various timings of onset during the crop cycle. The most severe droughts (25% of seasons) were when stress began before flowering and resulted in failure of grain production in most cases, although biomass production was not affected so severely. The frequencies of drought stress types were analyzed for selected locations throughout the rabi tract and showed different zones had different predominating stress patterns. This knowledge can help better focus the search for adaptive traits and management practices to specific stress situations and thus accelerate improvement of rabi sorghum via targeted specific adaptation. The case study presented here is applicable to other sorghum growing environments. © 2012 Elsevier B.V.

The role of the Madden-Julian Oscillation in the El Nino and Indian drought of 2002

In 2002 India experienced a severe drought, one among the five worst droughts since records began in 1871, notable for its countrywide influence. The drought was primarily due to an unprecedented break in the monsoon during July, which persisted for almost the whole month and affected most of the sub-continent. The failure of the monsoon in 2002 was not predicted and India was not prepared for the devastating impacts on, for example, agriculture. This paper documents the evolution of the 2002 Indian summer monsoon and considers the possible factors that contributed to the drought and the failure of the forecasts. The development of the 2002/2003 El Nino and the unusually high levels of Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO) activity during the monsoon season are identified as the central players. The 2002/2003 El Nino was characterised by very high sea-surface temperatures (SSTs) in the central Pacific that developed rapidly during the monsoon season. It is suggested that the unusual character of the developing El Nino was associated with the MJO and was a consequence of the eastward extension of the West Pacific Warm Pool, brought about primarily by a series of westerly wind events (WWEs) as part of the eastward movement of the active phase of the MJO. During the boreal summer, the MJO is usually characterised by northward movement, but in 2002 the northward component of the MJO was weak and the MJO was dominated by a strong eastward component, probably driven by the abnormally high SSTs in the central Pacific. It is suggested that a positive feedback existed between the developing El Nino and the eastward component of the MJO, which weakened the active phases of the monsoon. In particular, the unprecedented monsoon break in July could be associated with the juxtaposition of strong MJO activity with a developing El Nino, both of which interfered constructively with each other to produce major perturbations to the distribution of tropical heating. Subsequently, the main impact of the developing El Nino was a modulation of the Walker circulation that led to the overall suppression of the Indian monsoon during thess latter part of the season. It is argued that the unique combination of a rapidly developing El Nino and strong MJO activity, which was timed within the seasonal cycle to have maximum impact on the Indian summer monsoon, meant that prediction of the prolonged break in July and the seasonally deficient rainfall was a challenge for both the empirical and dynamical forecasting systems. Copyright (C) 2006 Royal Meteorological Society.

Summer drought alters plant-mediated competition between foliar- and root-feeding insects

Summer droughts are predicted to increase in severity and frequency in the United Kingdom, due to climate change. Few studies have addressed the impacts of drought on interactions between species, and the majority have focussed on increases in CO2 concentration and changes in temperature. Here, the effect of experimental summer drought on the strength of the plant-mediated interaction between leaf-mining Stephensia brunnichella larvae and root-chewing Agriotes larvae was investigated. Agriotes larvae reduced the abundance and performance of S. brunnichella feeding on a mutual host plant, Clinopodium vulgare, as well as the rate of parasitism of the leaf-miner. The interaction did not, however, occur on plants subjected to a severe drought treatment, which were reduced in size. Changes to summer rainfall, due to climate change, may therefore reduce the occurrence of plant-mediated interactions between insect herbivores.

Modelling predicts that heat stress, not drought, will increase vulnerability of wheat in Europe

New crop cultivars will be required for a changing climate characterised by increased summer drought and heat stress in Europe. However, the uncertainty in climate predictions poses a challenge to crop scientists and breeders who have limited time and resources and must select the most appropriate traits for improvement. Modelling is a powerful tool to quantify future threats to crops and hence identify targets for improvement. We have used a wheat simulation model combined with local-scale climate scenarios to predict impacts of heat stress and drought on winter wheat in Europe. Despite the lower summer precipitation projected for 2050s across Europe, relative yield losses from drought is predicted to be smaller in the future, because wheat will mature earlier avoiding severe drought. By contrast, the risk of heat stress around flowering will increase, potentially resulting in substantial yield losses for heat sensitive cultivars commonly grown in northern Europe.

Interacting effects of climate change and habitat fragmentation on drought-sensitive butterflies

Climate change is expected to increase the frequency of some climatic extremes. These may have drastic impacts on biodiversity, particularly if meteorological thresholds are crossed, leading to population collapses. Should this occur repeatedly, populations may be unable to recover, resulting in local extinctions. Comprehensive time series data on butterflies in Great Britain provide a rare opportunity to quantify population responses to both past severe drought and the interaction with habitat area and fragmentation. Here, we combine this knowledge with future projections from multiple climate models, for different Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs), and for simultaneous modelled responses to different landscape characteristics. Under RCP8.5, which is associated with ‘business as usual’ emissions, widespread drought-sensitive butterfly population extinctions could occur as early as 2050. However, by managing landscapes and particularly reducing habitat fragmentation, the probability of persistence until mid-century improves from around zero to between 6 and 42% (95% confidence interval). Achieving persistence with a greater than 50% chance and right through to 2100 is possible only under both low climate change (RCP2.6) and semi-natural habitat restoration. Our data show that, for these drought-sensitive butterflies, persistence is achieved more effectively by restoring semi-natural landscapes to reduce fragmentation, rather than simply focusing on increasing habitat area, but this will only be successful in combination with substantial emission reductions.

Multidecadal Drought and Holocene Climate Instability in the Rocky Mountains

Time series analysis of a diatom-inferred drought record suggests that Holocene hydroclimate of the northern Rocky Mountains has been characterized by oscillation between two mean climate states. The dominant climate state was initiated at the onset of the Holocene (ca. 11 ka); under this climate state, drought was strongly cyclic, recurring at frequencies that are similar to twentieth century multidecadal phase changes of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation. This pattern remained consistent throughout much of the mid- Holocene, continuing until ca. 4.5 ka. After this time the mean climate state changed, and drought recurrence became unstable; periods of cyclic drought alternated with periods of less predictable drought. The timing of this shift in climate was coincident with widespread severe drought in the mid-continent of North America. Overall, the strongest periodicity in severe drought occurred during the mid-Holocene, when temperatures in the northern Rocky Mountains were warmer than today.

Evaluation of the photosynthetic efficiency of sweet sorghum under drought and cold conditions

Sweet sorghum, a C4 crop of tropical origin, is gaining momentum as a multipurpose feedstock to tackle the growing environmental, food and energy security demands. Under temperate climates sweet sorghum is considered as a potential bioethanol feedstock, however, being a relatively new crop in such areas its physiological and metabolic adaptability has to be evaluated; especially to the more frequent and severe drought spells occurring throughout the growing season and to the cold temperatures during the establishment period of the crop. The objective of this thesis was to evaluate some adaptive photosynthetic traits of sweet sorghum to drought and cold stress, both under field and controlled conditions. To meet such goal, a series of experiments were carried out. A new cold-tolerant sweet sorghum genotype was sown in rhizotrons of 1 m3 in order to evaluate its tolerance to progressive drought until plant death at young and mature stages. Young plants were able to retain high photosynthetic rate for 10 days longer than mature plants. Such response was associated to the efficient PSII down-regulation capacity mediated by light energy dissipation, closure of reaction centers (JIP-test parameters), and accumulation of glucose and sucrose. On the other hand, when sweet sorghum plants went into blooming stage, neither energy dissipation nor sugar accumulation counteracted the negative effect of drought. Two hybrids with contrastable cold tolerance, selected from an early sowing field trial were subjected to chilling temperatures under controlled growth conditions to evaluate in deep their physiological and metabolic cold adaptation mechanisms. The hybrid which poorly performed under field conditions (ICSSH31), showed earlier metabolic changes (Chl a + b, xanthophyll cycle) and greater inhibition of enzymatic activity (Rubisco and PEPcase activity) than the cold tolerant hybrid (Bulldozer). Important insights on the potential adaptability of sweet sorghum to temperate climates are given.

Innovative tools to address drought risk in grazing lands

Drought spells can impose severe impacts in most vulnerable farms. It is well known that uninsured exposure exacerbates income inequality in farming systems. However, high administrative costs of traditional insurance hinder small farmers? access to risk management tools. The existence of moral hazard and systemic risk prevents the implementation of traditional insurance programs to address drought risk in rural areas. Innovative technologies like satellite images are being used to derive vegetation index which are highly correlated with drought impacts. The implementation of this technology in agricultural insurance may help to overcome some of the limitations of traditional insurance. However, basis risk has been identified as one of the main problems that hinder the acceptance of index insurance. In this paper we focus on the analyses of basis risk under different contract options in the grazing lands of the Araucanía region. A vegetation index database is used to develop an actuarial insurance model and estimate risk premiums for moderate and severe drought coverage. Risk premium sharply increases with risk coverage. In contrast with previous findings in the literature, our results are not conclusive and show that lowering the coverage level does not necessarily imply a reduction in basis risk. Further analyses of the relation between contract design and basis risk is a promising area of research that may render an important social utility for most vulnerable farming systems.

Drought-induced shift of a forest–woodland ecotone: Rapid landscape response to climate variation

In coming decades, global climate changes are expected to produce large shifts in vegetation distributions at unprecedented rates. These shifts are expected to be most rapid and extreme at ecotones, the boundaries between ecosystems, particularly those in semiarid landscapes. However, current models do not adequately provide for such rapid effects—particularly those caused by mortality—largely because of the lack of data from field studies. Here we report the most rapid landscape-scale shift of a woody ecotone ever documented: in northern New Mexico in the 1950s, the ecotone between semiarid ponderosa pine forest and piñon–juniper woodland shifted extensively (2 km or more) and rapidly (<5 years) through mortality of ponderosa pines in response to a severe drought. This shift has persisted for 40 years. Forest patches within the shift zone became much more fragmented, and soil erosion greatly accelerated. The rapidity and the complex dynamics of the persistent shift point to the need to represent more accurately these dynamics, especially the mortality factor, in assessments of the effects of climate change.

Improving drought tolerance in rainfed lowland rice: An example from Thailand

A large portion of the world's poor farm in rainfed systems where the water supply is unpredictable and droughts are common. In Thailand there are approximately 6.2 million ha of rain fed lowland rice, which account for 67% of the country's total rice-growing area. This rice system is often characterised by too much and too little water in the same season. Farmers' estimates of their annual losses to drought are as high as 45% in the upper parts of the toposequence. In contrast to irrigated rice systems, gains from crop improvement of rainfed rice have been modest, in part because there has been little effort to breed and select for drought tolerance for the target rainfed environments. The crop improvement strategy being used in Thailand considers three mechanisms that influence yield in the drought prone targets: yield potential as an important mechanism for mild drought (where yield loss is less than 50%), drought escape (appropriate phenology) and drought tolerance traits of leaf water potential, sterility, flower delay and drought response index for more severe drought conditions. Genotypes are exposed to managed drought environments for selection of drought tolerant genotypes. A marker assisted selection (MAS) scheme has been developed and applied for selection of progenies in the backcrossing program. The plant breeding program uses rapid generation advance techniques that enable early yield testing in the target population of environments (TPE) through inter-station (multi-location yield testing) and on-farm trials. A farmer participatory approach has been used to identify the TPE for the breeding program. Four terrace paddy levels have been identified, upper (drought), middle (drought prone to favorable) and lower (flooded). This paper reports the change in the breeding program for the drought prone tainted lowland rice environments of North and Northeast Thailand by incorporating our knowledge on adaptation and on response of rice to drought. (c) 2005 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.