Utilizing analytic modelling process in industrial retail context

Nykypäivän monimutkaisessa ja epävakaassa liiketoimintaympäristössä yritykset, jotka kykenevät muuttamaan tuottamansa operatiivisen datan tietovarastoiksi, voivat saavuttaa merkittävää kilpailuetua. Ennustavan analytiikan hyödyntäminen tulevien trendien ennakointiin mahdollistaa yritysten tunnistavan avaintekijöitä, joiden avulla he pystyvät erottumaan kilpailijoistaan. Ennustavan analytiikan hyödyntäminen osana päätöksentekoprosessia mahdollistaa ketterämmän, reaaliaikaisen päätöksenteon. Tämän diplomityön tarkoituksena on koota teoreettinen viitekehys analytiikan mallintamisesta liike-elämän loppukäyttäjän näkökulmasta ja hyödyntää tätä mallinnusprosessia diplomityön tapaustutkimuksen yritykseen. Teoreettista mallia hyödynnettiin asiakkuuksien mallintamisessa sekä tunnistamalla ennakoivia tekijöitä myynnin ennustamiseen. Työ suoritettiin suomalaiseen teollisten suodattimien tukkukauppaan, jolla on liiketoimintaa Suomessa, Venäjällä ja Balteissa. Tämä tutkimus on määrällinen tapaustutkimus, jossa tärkeimpänä tiedonkeruumenetelmänä käytettiin tapausyrityksen transaktiodataa. Data työhön saatiin yrityksen toiminnanohjausjärjestelmästä.

A semi- analytic finite element approach to the stress analysis of circular plate

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Analytic modelling of the galactic fountain in the Milky Way potential

Le galassie a spirale, come la Via Lattea, sono caratterizzate dalla presenza di gas freddo e formazione stellare e vengono perciò chiamate star-forming. Per creare nuove stelle è necessaria una sufficiente riserva di gas, la cui disponibilità governa l’evoluzione della galassia stessa. Finora, non è stato individuato con certezza un meccanismo che possa alimentare la formazione di nuove stelle nelle galassie star-forming. Una delle possibili sorgenti di tale gas è l’alone galattico caldo (corona galattica) il cui raffreddamento e successivo accrescimento possono essere stimolati dal processo di fontana galattica. L’esplosione di supernovae porta nubi di gas freddo in orbita al di sopra del disco stellare; queste nubi raggiungono altezze dell’ordine del kiloparsec, interagendo con la corona di gas caldo. Il moto delle nubi all’interno di un mezzo meno denso comporta l’instaurarsi dell’instabilità di Kelvin-Helmholtz, che ’strappa’ gas dalle nubi e causa la condensazione di materia coronale. Quest’ultima viene quindi accresciuta e, ricadendo sul disco, trasferisce nuovo materiale alla galassia e ne alimenta la formazione stellare. Lo scopo di questa tesi è derivare un modello analitico di fontana galattica che consenta di ottenere una formulazione analitica per il tempo orbitale, cioè il tempo richiesto alle nubi per ricadere sul disco galattico. Infatti, più u tempo le nubi impiegano per attraversare il materiale coronale caldo e ricadere sul disco, più materiale viene accresciuto durante l’orbita. Conoscendo i tempi orbitali sarebbe possibile calcolare il tasso di accrescimento legato al fenomeno di fontana e studiarne l’andamento con il raggio del disco. Questo modello potrebbe rivelarsi utile per lo studio dell’impatto della fontana nell’evoluzione globale del disco galattico e della chimica dell’intera galassia.

The Role of decision-analytic modelling in German health technology assessments

BACKGROUND: Decision-analytic modelling (DAM) has become a widespread method in health technology assessments (HTA), but the extent to which modelling is used differs among international HTA institutions. In Germany, the use of DAM is optional within HTAs of the German Institute of Medical Documentation and Information (DIMDI). Our study examines the use of DAM in DIMDI HTA reports and its effect on the quality of information provided for health policies. METHODS: A review of all DIMDI HTA reports (from 1998 to September 2012) incorporating an economic assessment was performed. All included reports were divided into two groups: HTAs with DAM and HTAs without DAM. In both groups, reports were categorized according to the quality of information provided for healthcare decision making. RESULTS: Of the sample of 107 DIMDI HTA reports, 17 (15.9%) used DAM for economic assessment. In the group without DAM, conclusions were limited by the quality of economic information in 51.1% of the reports, whereas we did not find limited conclusions in the group with DAM. Furthermore, 24 reports without DAM (26.7%) stated that using DAM would likely improve the quality of information of the economic assessment. CONCLUSION: The use of DAM techniques can improve the quality of HTAs in Germany. When, after a systematic review of existing literature within a HTA, it is clear that DAM is likely to positively affect the quality of the economic assessment DAM should be used.

Structure formation in the presence of dark energy perturbations

We study non-linear structure formation in the presence of dark energy. The influence of dark energy on the growth of large-scale cosmological structures is exerted both through its background effect on the expansion rate, and through its perturbations. In order to compute the rate of formation of massive objects we employ the spherical collapse formalism, which we generalize to include fluids with pressure. We show that the resulting non-linear evolution equations are identical to the ones obtained in the pseudo-Newtonian approach to cosmological perturbations, in the regime where an equation of state serves to describe both the background pressure relative to density, and the pressure perturbations relative to the density perturbations. We then consider a wide range of constant and time-dependent equations of state (including phantom models) parametrized in a standard way, and study their impact on the non-linear growth of structure. The main effect is the formation of dark energy structure associated with the dark matter halo: non-phantom equations of state induce the formation of a dark energy halo, damping the growth of structures; phantom models, on the other hand, generate dark energy voids, enhancing structure growth. Finally, we employ the Press-Schechter formalism to compute how dark energy affects the number of massive objects as a function of redshift (number counts).

Dark energy parametrizations and their effect on dark halos

There are a plethora of dark energy parametrizations that can fit current supernovae Ia data. However, these data are only sensitive to redshifts up to order one. In fact, many of these parametrizations break down at higher redshifts. In this paper we study the effect of dark energy models on the formation of dark halos. We select a couple of dark energy parametrizations which are sensible at high redshifts and compute their effect on the evolution of density perturbations in the linear and non-linear regimes. Using the Press-Schechter formalism we show that they produce distinguishable signatures in the number counts of dark halos. Therefore, future observations of galaxy clusters can provide complementary constraints on the behaviour of dark energy.

Activation of effector immune cells promotes tumor stochastic extinction: A homotopy analysis approach

In this article we provide homotopy solutions of a cancer nonlinear model describing the dynamics of tumor cells in interaction with healthy and effector immune cells. We apply a semi-analytic technique for solving strongly nonlinear systems – the Step Homotopy Analysis Method (SHAM). This algorithm, based on a modification of the standard homotopy analysis method (HAM), allows to obtain a one-parameter family of explicit series solutions. By using the homotopy solutions, we first investigate the dynamical effect of the activation of the effector immune cells in the deterministic dynamics, showing that an increased activation makes the system to enter into chaotic dynamics via a period-doubling bifurcation scenario. Then, by adding demographic stochasticity into the homotopy solutions, we show, as a difference from the deterministic dynamics, that an increased activation of the immune cells facilitates cancer clearance involving tumor cells extinction and healthy cells persistence. Our results highlight the importance of therapies activating the effector immune cells at early stages of cancer progression.

Trimmerin kapasiteetin kasvattaminen dynamiikan mallinnuksen avulla

Työn tavoitteena oli kasvattaa sahan dimensiolaitoksella käytettävän trimmerin rakenteellista kapasiteettia. Tavoitteeseen pyrittiin modernisoimalla trimmerin teräyksikköä käyttävää toimilaite ja teräyksikön säätö dynamiikan mallinnuksen avulla. Trimmerin teräyksikön dynamiikka mallinnettiin MATLAB-matematiikkaohjelmistolla kaksiulotteisena kinematiikkamallina ja kolmeulotteisena kinetiikkamallina. Dynamiikkamallien tulosten perusteella valittin teräyksikköä käyttävä toimilaite komponentteineen. Kinetiikkamalliin mallinnettiin trimmeriä käyttävä hydraulipiiri valittuine komponentteineen keskittyneiden paineiden ja puoliempiirisen mallinnuksen periaatteita käyttäen. Teräyksikön työkiertoa säätämään mallinnettiin suljettu takaisinkytketty säätöpiiri. Tuloksien perusteella valittiin optimaalinen toimilaitteen asemointigeometria ja todettiin mallinnetun järjestelmän täyttävän asetetut vaatimukset. Järjestelmää testattiin muuttamalla jarjestelman parametreja ja tutkimalla muutosten vaikutuksia jarjestelman toimintaan. Lisaksi tutkittiin lyhyesti terayksikon rakenteen keventamisen vaikutuksia.

Predicted decrease in global climate suitability masks regional complexity of invasive fruit fly species response to climate change

Climate change affects the rate of insect invasions as well as the abundance, distribution and impacts of such invasions on a global scale. Among the principal analytical approaches to predicting and understanding future impacts of biological invasions are Species Distribution Models (SDMs), typically in the form of correlative Ecological Niche Models (ENMs). An underlying assumption of ENMs is that species-environment relationships remain preserved during extrapolations in space and time, although this is widely criticised. The semi-mechanistic modelling platform, CLIMEX, employs a top-down approach using species ecophysiological traits and is able to avoid some of the issues of extrapolation, making it highly applicable to investigating biological invasions in the context of climate change. The tephritid fruit flies (Diptera: Tephritidae) comprise some of the most successful invasive species and serious economic pests around the world. Here we project 12 tephritid species CLIMEX models into future climate scenarios to examine overall patterns of climate suitability and forecast potential distributional changes for this group. We further compare the aggregate response of the group against species-specific responses. We then consider additional drivers of biological invasions to examine how invasion potential is influenced by climate, fruit production and trade indices. Considering the group of tephritid species examined here, climate change is predicted to decrease global climate suitability and to shift the cumulative distribution poleward. However, when examining species-level patterns, the predominant directionality of range shifts for 11 of the 12 species is eastward. Most notably, management will need to consider regional changes in fruit fly species invasion potential where high fruit production, trade indices and predicted distributions of these flies overlap.

Leaving the Dark ages with AMIGA

We present an Analytic Model of Intergalactic-medium and GAlaxy (AMIGA) evolution since the dark ages. AMIGA is in the spirit of the popular semi-analytic models of galaxy formation, although it does not use halo merger trees but interpolates halo properties in grids that are progressively built. This strategy is less memory-demanding and allows one to start modeling at sufficiently high redshifts and low halo masses to have trivial boundary conditions. The number of free parameters is minimized by making a causal connection between physical processes usually treated as independent of each other, which leads to more reliable predictions. However, the strongest points of AMIGA are the following: (1) the inclusion of molecular cooling and metal-poor, population III (Pop III) stars with the most dramatic feedback and (2) accurate follow up of the temperature and volume filling factor of neutral, singly ionized, and doubly ionized regions, taking into account the distinct halo mass functions in those environments. We find the following general results. Massive Pop III stars determine the intergalactic medium metallicity and temperature, and the growth of spheroids and disks is self-regulated by that of massive black holes (MBHs) developed from the remnants of those stars. However, the properties of normal galaxies and active galactic nuclei appear to be quite insensitive to Pop III star properties due to the much higher yield of ordinary stars compared to Pop III stars and the dramatic growth of MBHs when normal galaxies begin to develop, which cause the memory loss of the initial conditions.

Methods and Models for Accelerating Dynamic Simulation of Fluid Power Circuits

The objective of this dissertation is to improve the dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits. A fluid power circuit is a typical way to implement power transmission in mobile working machines, e.g. cranes, excavators etc. Dynamic simulation is an essential tool in developing controllability and energy-efficient solutions for mobile machines. Efficient dynamic simulation is the basic requirement for the real-time simulation. In the real-time simulation of fluid power circuits there exist numerical problems due to the software and methods used for modelling and integration. A simulation model of a fluid power circuit is typically created using differential and algebraic equations. Efficient numerical methods are required since differential equations must be solved in real time. Unfortunately, simulation software packages offer only a limited selection of numerical solvers. Numerical problems cause noise to the results, which in many cases leads the simulation run to fail. Mathematically the fluid power circuit models are stiff systems of ordinary differential equations. Numerical solution of the stiff systems can be improved by two alternative approaches. The first is to develop numerical solvers suitable for solving stiff systems. The second is to decrease the model stiffness itself by introducing models and algorithms that either decrease the highest eigenvalues or neglect them by introducing steady-state solutions of the stiff parts of the models. The thesis proposes novel methods using the latter approach. The study aims to develop practical methods usable in dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits using explicit fixed-step integration algorithms. In this thesis, twomechanisms whichmake the systemstiff are studied. These are the pressure drop approaching zero in the turbulent orifice model and the volume approaching zero in the equation of pressure build-up. These are the critical areas to which alternative methods for modelling and numerical simulation are proposed. Generally, in hydraulic power transmission systems the orifice flow is clearly in the turbulent area. The flow becomes laminar as the pressure drop over the orifice approaches zero only in rare situations. These are e.g. when a valve is closed, or an actuator is driven against an end stopper, or external force makes actuator to switch its direction during operation. This means that in terms of accuracy, the description of laminar flow is not necessary. But, unfortunately, when a purely turbulent description of the orifice is used, numerical problems occur when the pressure drop comes close to zero since the first derivative of flow with respect to the pressure drop approaches infinity when the pressure drop approaches zero. Furthermore, the second derivative becomes discontinuous, which causes numerical noise and an infinitely small integration step when a variable step integrator is used. A numerically efficient model for the orifice flow is proposed using a cubic spline function to describe the flow in the laminar and transition areas. Parameters for the cubic spline function are selected such that its first derivative is equal to the first derivative of the pure turbulent orifice flow model in the boundary condition. In the dynamic simulation of fluid power circuits, a tradeoff exists between accuracy and calculation speed. This investigation is made for the two-regime flow orifice model. Especially inside of many types of valves, as well as between them, there exist very small volumes. The integration of pressures in small fluid volumes causes numerical problems in fluid power circuit simulation. Particularly in realtime simulation, these numerical problems are a great weakness. The system stiffness approaches infinity as the fluid volume approaches zero. If fixed step explicit algorithms for solving ordinary differential equations (ODE) are used, the system stability would easily be lost when integrating pressures in small volumes. To solve the problem caused by small fluid volumes, a pseudo-dynamic solver is proposed. Instead of integration of the pressure in a small volume, the pressure is solved as a steady-state pressure created in a separate cascade loop by numerical integration. The hydraulic capacitance V/Be of the parts of the circuit whose pressures are solved by the pseudo-dynamic method should be orders of magnitude smaller than that of those partswhose pressures are integrated. The key advantage of this novel method is that the numerical problems caused by the small volumes are completely avoided. Also, the method is freely applicable regardless of the integration routine applied. The superiority of both above-mentioned methods is that they are suited for use together with the semi-empirical modelling method which necessarily does not require any geometrical data of the valves and actuators to be modelled. In this modelling method, most of the needed component information can be taken from the manufacturer’s nominal graphs. This thesis introduces the methods and shows several numerical examples to demonstrate how the proposed methods improve the dynamic simulation of various hydraulic circuits.

Suppression of small baryonic structures due to a primordial magnetic field

We investigate the impact of the existence of a primordial magnetic field on the filter mass, characterizing the minimum baryonic mass that can form in dark matter (DM) haloes. For masses below the filter mass, the baryon content of DM haloes are severely depressed. The filter mass is the mass when the baryon to DM mass ratio in a halo is equal to half the baryon to DM ratio of the Universe. The filter mass has previously been used in semi-analytic calculations of galaxy formation, without taking into account the possible existence of a primordial magnetic field. We examine here its effect on the filter mass. For homogeneous comoving primordial magnetic fields of B(0) similar to 1 or 2 nG and a re-ionization epoch that starts at a redshift z(s) = 11 and is completed at z(r) = 8, the filter mass is increased at redshift 8, for example, by factors of 4.1 and 19.8, respectively. The dependence of the filter mass on the parameters describing the re-ionization epoch is investigated. Our results are particularly important for the formation of low-mass galaxies in the presence of a homogeneous primordial magnetic field. For example, for B(0) similar to 1 nG and a re-ionization epoch of z(s) similar to 11 and z(r) similar to 7, our results indicate that galaxies of total mass M similar to 5 x 108 M(circle dot) need to form at redshifts z(F) greater than or similar to 2.0, and galaxies of total mass M similar to 108 M(circle dot) at redshifts z(F) greater than or similar to 7.7.

Attitude stability of artificial satellites subject to gravity gradient torque

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Stability analysis of the attitude of artificial satellites subject to gravity gradient torque

Using a canonical formulation, the stability of the rotational motion of artificial satellites is analyzed considering perturbations due to the gravity gradient torque. Here Andoyer's variables are used to describe the rotational motion. One of the approaches that allow the analysis of the stability of Hamiltonian systems needs the reduction of the Hamiltonian to a normal form. Firstly equilibrium points are found. Using generalized coordinates, the Hamiltonian is expanded in the neighborhood of the linearly stable equilibrium points. In a next step a canonical linear transformation is used to diagonalize the matrix associated to the linear part of the system. The quadratic part of the Hamiltonian is normalized. Based in a Lie-Hori algorithm a semi-analytic process for normalization is applied and the Hamiltonian is normalized up to the fourth order. Once the Hamiltonian is normalized up to order four, the analysis of stability of the equilibrium point is performed using the theorem of Kovalev and Savichenko. This semi-analytical approach was applied considering some data sets of hypothetical satellites. For the considered satellites it was observed few cases of stable motion. This work contributes for space missions where the maintenance of spacecraft attitude stability is required.