Rethinking the security of the European Union’s gas supply. Bruegel Policy Contribution, Issue 2016/01 January 2016

Highlights: • The security of the European Union’s gas supplies is crucial to ensuring that supplies to households are not disrupted in freezing winters, that industry can flourish and that the EU cannot be blackmailed in vital foreign policy questions. • Gas supply security should be addressed at EU level because a joint solution would be cheaper, national approaches could undermine the internal energy market and have adverse effects on other countries, and the EU Treaty explicitly calls for energy solidarity. • The current focus on supply diversification and reduction of dependence on imported gas is expensive and does not constitute a systemic response. • Instead of doing everything to reduce gas supplies from key suppliers, gas supply security could more effectively be safeguarded by ensuring that unused alternatives are maintained so that they can be tapped into for an indefinite period in case of supply disruption from a key supplier.This Policy Contribution outlines a market approach that could safeguard gas supply security at very low cost.

An heuristic approach for optimal location of gas supply units in transportation system

The best places to locate the Gas Supply Units (GSUs) on a natural gas systems and their optimal allocation to loads are the key factors to organize an efficient upstream gas infrastructure. The number of GSUs and their optimal location in a gas network is a decision problem that can be formulated as a linear programming problem. Our emphasis is on the formulation and use of a suitable location model, reflecting real-world operations and constraints of a natural gas system. This paper presents a heuristic model, based on lagrangean approach, developed for finding the optimal GSUs location on a natural gas network, minimizing expenses and maximizing throughput and security of supply.The location model is applied to the Iberian high pressure natural gas network, a system modelised with 65 demand nodes. These nodes are linked by physical and virtual pipelines – road trucks with gas in liquefied form. The location model result shows the best places to locate, with the optimal demand allocation and the most economical gas transport mode: by pipeline or by road truck.

Impact of wind power generation on the electricity supply industry

The objective of this dissertation is to investigate the effect wind energy has on the Electricity Supply Industry in Ireland. Wind power generation is a source of renewable energy that is in abundant supply in Ireland and is fast becoming a resource that Ireland is depending on as a diverse and secure of supply of energy. However, wind is an intermittent resource and coupled with a variable demand, there are integration issues with balancing demand and supply effectively. To maintain a secure supply of electricity to customers, it is necessary that wind power has an operational reserve to ensure appropriate backup for situations where there is low wind but high demand. This dissertation examines the affect of this integration by comparing wind generation to that of conventional generation in the national grid. This is done to ascertain the cost benefits of wind power generation against a scenario with no wind generation. Then, the analysis examines to see if wind power can meet the pillars of sustainability. This entails looking at wind in a practical scenario to observe how it meets these pillars under the criteria of environmental responsibility, displacement of conventional fuel, cost competitiveness and security of supply.

Energy security of the Baltic States

Energy security is an important topic on the world agenda and has augmented its importance since the term “peak oil” was coined. Energy security is a crucial issue for most countries but some are more dependent on foreign supply than others. Traditionally, the Baltic States have been dependent on Russia for much of their oil and gas supplies, which makes them vulnerable to political pressure. Therefore, energy security, that is ensuring sufficient supply and safe delivery and in this case reduce dependency on a single provider – Russia, entails a conspicuous foreign policy dimension. Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania have been described as energy islands within the EU. This paper tries to answer the question if energy security of the Baltic States has improved since their accession to the EU in 2004. Additionally, it will analyse the prospects of energy security, noting that one of the Lithuanian aims during its European presidency in 2013 is to improve energy security of the Baltic States by fostering cooperation with EU member states.

Impact of reliability of supply on long-term development approaches to electricity distribution networks

The Finnish electricity distribution sector, rural areas in particular, is facing major challenges because of the economic regulation, tightening supply security requirements and the ageing network asset. Therefore, the target in the distribution network planning and asset management is to develop and renovate the networks to meet these challenges in compliance with the regulations in an economically feasible way. Concerning supply security, the new Finnish Electricity Market Act limits the maximum duration of electricity supply interruptions to six hours in urban areas and 36 hours in rural areas. This has a significant impact on distribution network planning, especially in rural areas where the distribution networks typically require extensive modifications and renovations to meet the supply security requirements. This doctoral thesis introduces a methodology to analyse electricity distribution system development. The methodology is based on and combines elements of reliability analysis, asset management and economic regulation. The analysis results can be applied, for instance, to evaluate the development of distribution reliability and to consider actions to meet the tightening regulatory requirements. Thus, the methodology produces information for strategic decision-making so that DSOs can respond to challenges arising in the electricity distribution sector. The key contributions of the thesis are a network renovation concept for rural areas, an analysis to assess supply security, and an evaluation of the effects of economic regulation on the strategic network planning. In addition, the thesis demonstrates how the reliability aspect affects the placement of automation devices and how the reserve power can be arranged in a rural area network.

The Efficient Use of Multiple Sources of a Nonrenewable Resource under Supply Cost Uncertainty

Uncertainties as to future supply costs of nonrenewable natural resources, such as oil and gas, raise the issue of the choice of supply sources. In a perfectly deterministic world, an efficient use of multiple sources of supply requires that any given market exhausts the supply it can draw from a low cost source before moving on to a higher cost one; supply sources should be exploited in strict sequence of increasing marginal cost, with a high cost source being left untouched as long as a less costly source is available. We find that this may not be the efficient thing to do in a stochastic world. We show that there exist conditions under which it can be efficient to use a risky supply source in order to conserve a cheaper non risky source. The benefit of doing this comes from the fact that it leaves open the possibility of using it instead of the risky source in the event the latter’s future cost conditions suddenly deteriorate. There are also conditions under which it will be efficient to use a more costly non risky source while a less costly risky source is still available. The reason is that this conserves the less costly risky source in order to use it in the event of a possible future drop in its cost.

Evaluating sustainability and food security of peasant farming systems in Mesoamerican highlands

En las últimas décadas, la agricultura sostenible ha sido objeto de gran interés y debate académico, no sólo en términos conceptuales, sino también en términos metodológicos. La persistencia de la inseguridad alimentaria y el deterioro de los recursos naturales en muchas regiones del mundo, ha provocado el surgimiento de numerosas iniciativas centradas en revitalizar la agricultura campesina así como renovadas discusiones sobre el rol que juega la agricultura como motor de desarrollo y principal actividad para alivio de la pobreza. Por ello, cuando hablamos de evaluar sistemas campesinos de montaña, debemos considerar tanto la dimensión alimentaria como las especificidades propias de los sistemas montañosos como base fundamental de la sostenibilidad. Al evaluar la contribución que han hecho alternativas tecnológicas y de manejo en la mejora de la sostenibilidad y la seguridad alimentaria de los sistemas campesinos de montaña en Mesoamérica, surgen tres preguntas de investigación: • ¿Se está evaluando la sostenibilidad de los sistemas campesinos teniendo en cuenta la variabilidad climática, la participación de los agricultores y las dinámicas temporales? • ¿Podemos rescatar tendencias comunes en estos sistemas y extrapolar los resultados a otras zonas? • ¿Son inequívocamente positivas las alternativas propuestas que se han llevado a cabo? En este trabajo se presentan tres evaluaciones de sostenibilidad que tratan de poner de manifiesto cuáles son los retos y oportunidades que enfrentan actualmente los sistemas campesinos de montaña. En primer lugar, se evalúan tres sistemas de manejo agrícola bajo dos años meteorológicamente contrastantes. Se determinó que durante el año que experimentó lluvias abundantes y temperaturas moderadas, los sistemas de bajos insumos, basados en el uso de abonos orgánicos y rotación de cultivos, obtuvieron los mejores resultados en indicadores ecológicos y similares resultados en los económicos y sociales que el sistema de altos insumos químicos. En el segundo año, con heladas tempranas y sequía invernal, la productividad se redujo para todos los sistemas pero los sistemas más diversificados (en variedades de maíz y/o siembra de otros cultivos) pudieron resistir mejor los contratiempos climáticos. En segundo lugar, se evalúa el grado de conocimiento (percepción) campesino para determinar los factores claves que determinan la sostenibilidad de sus sistemas y su seguridad alimentaria. Se determinó que los principales puntos críticos identificados por los campesinos (tamaño de parcela y pendiente del terreno) afectan de forma significativa a cuestiones de índole económica, pero no son capaces de explicar los desequilibrios alimenticios existentes. Realizando un análisis comparativo entre comunidades que presentaban buenos y malos resultados en cuanto a aporte energético y proteico, se determinó que la seguridad alimentaria estaba relacionada con la sostenibilidad de los sistemas y que concretamente estaba ligada a los atributos de equidad y autonomía. Otro resultado destacable fue que las comunidades más marginales y con mayor dificultad de acceso mostraron mayores niveles de inseguridad alimentaria, pero la variabilidad intergrupal fue muy alta. Eso demuestra que la seguridad alimentaria y nutricional forma parte de un complejo sistema de estrategias de autoabastecimiento ligada a la idiosincrasia misma de cada uno de los hogares. En tercer lugar, se evaluó el desempeño de las escuelas de campo de agricultores (ECAs) en la mejora de la sostenibilidad y la seguridad alimentaria de un sistema campesino de montaña. Para ver el efecto del impacto de estas metodologías a largo plazo, se estudiaron tres comunidades donde se habían implementado ECAs hace 8, 5 y 3 años. Encontramos que el impacto fue progresivo ya que fue la comunidad más antigua la que mejores valores obtuvo. El impacto de las ECAs fue rápido y persistente en los indicadores relacionados con la participación, el acceso a servicios básicos y la conservación de los recursos naturales. El estudio demostró un claro potencial de las ECAs en la mejora general de la sostenibilidad y la seguridad alimentaria de estos sistemas, sin embargo se observó una relación directa entre el aumento de producción agrícola y el uso de insumos externos, lo que puede suponer un punto crítico para los ideales sostenibles. ABSTRACT During the last decades, sustainable agriculture has been the subject of considerable academic interest and debate, not only in conceptual terms, but also in methodological ones. The persistence of high levels of environmental degradation and food insecurity in many regions has led to new initiatives focused on revitalizing peasant agriculture and renewed discussions of the role of sustainable agriculture as an engine for development, environmental conservation and poverty alleviation. Therefore, to assess mountain farming systems, we must consider food dimension and taking into account the specificities of the mountain systems as the foundation of sustainability. When evaluating contribution of technological and management alternative proposals in achieving sustainability and food security for peasant farming systems in Mesoamerican highlands, three research questions arise: • Is sustainability of peasant-farming systems being evaluated taking into account climate variability, participation of farmers and temporal dynamics? • Can we rescue common trends in these systems and extrapolate the results to other areas? • What alternative proposals that have been conducted are unequivocally positives? In this document, we present three evaluations of sustainability that try to highlight the challenges and opportunities that currently face mountain farming systems in Mesoamerica. First, we evaluate the sustainability of three agricultural management systems in two contrasting weather years. We determined that during the first year that exposed heavy rains and moderate temperatures, low-input systems, which are based on the use of organic fertilizers and crop rotation, provided better results in terms of ecological indicators and equal results in terms of economic and social indicators than those achieved using a high chemical input system. In the second year, which featured early frosts and a winter drought, productivity declined in all systems; however, the most diversified systems (in terms of the maize varieties grown and the sowing of other crops) more successfully resisted these climatic adversities. Second, we evaluate the farmers’ perception to determine the key drivers for achieving their sustainability and food and nutritional security. We determined that the key factors identified by farmers (landholding size and slope of cropland) exerted significant impacts on economic disparities but did not explain the malnutrition levels. We compared two contrasting hamlets according to their energy and protein supply, one namely Limón Timoté (LT), which did not present food problems and Limón Peña Blanca (LP), which did exhibit food insecurity. The results showed that FNS is linked to sustainability, and it is primarily related to the sustainability attributes of self-reliance and equity. Although the more marginated and inaccessible community exhibited more food insecurity, food and nutritional security depend upon a complex array of self-sufficiency strategies that remain linked to individual household idiosyncrasies. Third, we evaluated the impact of farmer field schools for improving the sustainability and food security of peasant mountain systems. In order to appreciate the long-term impact, we studied three communities where FFSs were implemented eight, five and three years ago, respectively. We found that FFSs have a gradual impact, as the community that first implemented FFSs scores highest. The impact of FFSs was broad and long-lasting for indicators related to participation, access to basic services and conservation of natural resources. This study demonstrates the potential of FFSs, but more attention will have to be paid to critical indicators in order to scale up their potential in the future. We observed a direct relationship between the increase in agricultural production and the use of external inputs, which is a critical point for sustainable ideals.

Micro-generation Evaluation of the Zero Emissions Technologies in the Portuguese Market

Micro-generation is the small scale production of heat and/or electricity from a low carbon source and can be a powerful driver for carbon reduction, behavior change, security of supply and economic value. The energy conversion technologies can include photovoltaic panels, micro combined heat and power, micro wind, heat pumps, solar thermal systems, fuel cells and micro hydro schemes. In this paper, a small research of the availability of the conversion apparatus and the prices for the micro wind turbines and photovoltaic systems is made and a comparison between these two technologies is performed in terms of the availability of the resource and costs. An analysis of the new legal framework published in Portugal is done to realize if the incentives to individualspsila investment in sustainable and local energy production is worth for their point of view. An economic evaluation for these alternatives, accounting with the governmentpsilas incentives should lead, in most cases, into attractive return rates for the investment. Apart from the attractiveness of the investment there are though other aspects that should be taken into account and those are the benefits that these choices have to us all. The idea is that micro-generation will not only make a significant direct contribution to carbon reduction targets, it will also trigger a multiplier effect in behavior change by engaging hearts and minds, and providing more efficient use of energy by householders. The diversified profile of power generation by micro-generators, both in terms of location and timing, should reduce the impact of intermittency or plant failures with significant gains for security of supply.

The effectiveness of supply chain management on firm's performance: A comparative case study

The purpose of the paper is to investigate the effectiveness of supply chain management (SCM) practices to increase a company’s performance based on a cross-border and cross-sector analysis. The paper follows a comparative case study approach which was achieved by interviewing supply chain management experts of three companies operating in different industries and positions in a supply chain. Practices that were mutually applied by the firms and their contribution to achieve quality, economic, cost, and time advantages were analyzed. The paper revealed practices, which contribute the most to increase specific performance areas.

The reasonant influence of supply chain management practices on organizational performance

A single supply chain management (SCM) practice will have a certain impact on organizational performance(OP). However, since it is placed in a system that many other practices are conducted simultaneously, the practice itself will interact with other ones and have a greater impact on OP. This mechanism is named the "resonant" influence. The technique of Structural equation modelling (SEM) was used to test the above mechanism with data collected from Vietnamese garment enterprises. The tcst results showed that the model without mutual interaction among SCM practices could explain 42.8%, 26.3% and 34% variance of operational performance, customer satisfaction and financial performance. While the one containing this interaction is capable to explain 69.5%, 33.1% and 57.3%, respectively.