Iolo Morganwg and the Welsh rural landscape

Jones, David. 'Iolo Morganwg and the Welsh rural landscape', In: A rattleskull genius: the many faces of Iolo Morganwg (Cardiff: University of Wales Press, 2005), pp.227-250 RAE2008

Willingness to Pay for Rural Landscape Improvements: Combining Mixed Logit and Random-Effects Models

This paper reports the findings from a discrete-choice experiment designed to estimate the economic benefits associated with rural landscape improvements in Ireland. Using a mixed logit model, the panel nature of the dataset is exploited to retrieve willingness-to-pay values for every individual in the sample. This departs from customary approaches in which the willingness-to-pay estimates are normally expressed as measures of central tendency of an a priori distribution. Random-effects models for panel data are subsequently used to identify the determinants of the individual-specific willingness-to-pay estimates. In comparison with the standard methods used to incorporate individual-specific variables into the analysis of discrete-choice experiments, the analytical approach outlined in this paper is shown to add considerable explanatory power to the welfare estimates.

Using choice experiments to explore the spatial distribution of willingness to pay for rural landscape improvements

We report findings from a choice experiment survey designed to estimate the economic benefits of policy measures to improve the rural landscape in the Republic of Ireland. Using a panel mixed logit specification to account for unobserved taste heterogeneity we derived individual-specific willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimates for each respondent in the sample. We subsequently investigated the spatial dependence of these estimates. Results suggest the existence of positive spatial autocorrelation for all rural landscape attributes. As a means of benefit transfer, kriging methods were employed to interpolate WTP estimates across the whole of the Republic of Ireland. The kriged WTP surfaces confirm the existence of spatial dependence and illustrate the implied spatial variation and regional disparities in WTP for all the rural landscape improvements investigated.

Modelling attribute non-attendance in choice experiments for rural landscape valuation

Non-market effects of agriculture are often estimated using discrete choice models from stated preference surveys. In this context we propose two ways of modelling attribute non-attendance. The first involves constraining coefficients to zero in a latent class framework, whereas the second is based on stochastic attribute selection and grounded in Bayesian estimation. Their implications are explored in the context of a stated preference survey designed to value landscapes in Ireland. Taking account of attribute non-attendance with these data improves fit and tends to involve two attributes one of which is likely to be cost, thereby leading to substantive changes in derived welfare estimates.

The assessment of change in rural landscape and the analysis of the driving forces. Proposal of a spatial model for the rural built environment

The presented study carried out an analysis on rural landscape changes. In particular the study focuses on the understanding of driving forces acting on the rural built environment using a statistical spatial model implemented through GIS techniques. It is well known that the study of landscape changes is essential for a conscious decision making in land planning. From a bibliography review results a general lack of studies dealing with the modeling of rural built environment and hence a theoretical modelling approach for such purpose is needed. The advancement in technology and modernity in building construction and agriculture have gradually changed the rural built environment. In addition, the phenomenon of urbanization of a determined the construction of new volumes that occurred beside abandoned or derelict rural buildings. Consequently there are two types of transformation dynamics affecting mainly the rural built environment that can be observed: the conversion of rural buildings and the increasing of building numbers. It is the specific aim of the presented study to propose a methodology for the development of a spatial model that allows the identification of driving forces that acted on the behaviours of the building allocation. In fact one of the most concerning dynamic nowadays is related to an irrational expansion of buildings sprawl across landscape. The proposed methodology is composed by some conceptual steps that cover different aspects related to the development of a spatial model: the selection of a response variable that better describe the phenomenon under study, the identification of possible driving forces, the sampling methodology concerning the collection of data, the most suitable algorithm to be adopted in relation to statistical theory and method used, the calibration process and evaluation of the model. A different combination of factors in various parts of the territory generated favourable or less favourable conditions for the building allocation and the existence of buildings represents the evidence of such optimum. Conversely the absence of buildings expresses a combination of agents which is not suitable for building allocation. Presence or absence of buildings can be adopted as indicators of such driving conditions, since they represent the expression of the action of driving forces in the land suitability sorting process. The existence of correlation between site selection and hypothetical driving forces, evaluated by means of modeling techniques, provides an evidence of which driving forces are involved in the allocation dynamic and an insight on their level of influence into the process. GIS software by means of spatial analysis tools allows to associate the concept of presence and absence with point futures generating a point process. Presence or absence of buildings at some site locations represent the expression of these driving factors interaction. In case of presences, points represent locations of real existing buildings, conversely absences represent locations were buildings are not existent and so they are generated by a stochastic mechanism. Possible driving forces are selected and the existence of a causal relationship with building allocations is assessed through a spatial model. The adoption of empirical statistical models provides a mechanism for the explanatory variable analysis and for the identification of key driving variables behind the site selection process for new building allocation. The model developed by following the methodology is applied to a case study to test the validity of the methodology. In particular the study area for the testing of the methodology is represented by the New District of Imola characterized by a prevailing agricultural production vocation and were transformation dynamic intensively occurred. The development of the model involved the identification of predictive variables (related to geomorphologic, socio-economic, structural and infrastructural systems of landscape) capable of representing the driving forces responsible for landscape changes.. The calibration of the model is carried out referring to spatial data regarding the periurban and rural area of the study area within the 1975-2005 time period by means of Generalised linear model. The resulting output from the model fit is continuous grid surface where cells assume values ranged from 0 to 1 of probability of building occurrences along the rural and periurban area of the study area. Hence the response variable assesses the changes in the rural built environment occurred in such time interval and is correlated to the selected explanatory variables by means of a generalized linear model using logistic regression. Comparing the probability map obtained from the model to the actual rural building distribution in 2005, the interpretation capability of the model can be evaluated. The proposed model can be also applied to the interpretation of trends which occurred in other study areas, and also referring to different time intervals, depending on the availability of data. The use of suitable data in terms of time, information, and spatial resolution and the costs related to data acquisition, pre-processing, and survey are among the most critical aspects of model implementation. Future in-depth studies can focus on using the proposed model to predict short/medium-range future scenarios for the rural built environment distribution in the study area. In order to predict future scenarios it is necessary to assume that the driving forces do not change and that their levels of influence within the model are not far from those assessed for the time interval used for the calibration.

Effects of the current financial and economic crisis on the rural landscape as well as the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia

This paper reviews the expected effects of the current financial crisis and subsequent recession on the rural landscape, in particular the agri-food sector in Europe and Central Asia (ECA) on the basis of the structure of the rural economy and of different organisations and institutions. Empirical evidence suggests that the crisis has hit the ECA region the hardest. Agriculture contributes about 9% to gross domestic product (GDP) for the ECA region as a whole with 16% of the population being employed in the agricultural sector. As far as the impact of the financial crisis on the agri-food sector is concerned, there are a few interconnected issues: (1) reduction in income elastic food demand and commodity price decline, (2) loss of employment and earnings of rural people working in urban centres, implying also costly labour reallocation, (3) rising rural poverty originating mainly from lack of opportunities in the non-farm sector and a sizable decline of international remittances, (4) tightening of agricultural credit markets, and the (5) collapse of sectoral government support programs and social safety-net measures in many countries. The paper reveals how the crisis hit farming and broader agri-business differently in general and in the ECA sub-regions.

An investigation into the techniques for detecting hedgehogs in a rural landscape

Various techniques and devices have been developed for the purpose of detecting wildlife but many only provide optimum results in particular habitats, for certain species or under ideal weather conditions. It is therefore advantageous to understand the efficiency and suitability of techniques under different scenarios. The effectiveness of methods for detecting rural Irish hedgehogs was investigated as part of a larger study in April 2008. Road kill sightings and questionnaires were employed to locate possible hedgehog sites. Six sites were subsequently selected, and in these areas trapping, spotlighting and foot print tunnels were employed to investigate whether hedgehogs were indeed in the surrounding landscape. Infrared thermal imagery was examined as a detection device. Trapping and infrared imagery failed to detect hedgehogs in areas where they had previously been recorded. Footprint tunnels proved to be unsuccessful in providing absolute proof of hedgehogs in an area. No single method of detection technique could be relied upon to conclude the presence of hedgehogs in an area. A combination of methods is therefore recommended. However, spotlighting was the most effective method, taking a mean of 4 nights to detect a hedgehog, in comparison to 48 nights if footprint tunnels were used as a sole method of detection. This was also suggested by rarefaction curves of these two detection techniques, where over a 48 night period hedgehogs were expected to be recorded 27 times through spotlighting and just 5 times in an equivalent period of footprint tunnel nights.

Courtship behaviour of western hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) in a rural landscape in Ireland and the first appearance of offspring

A study was conducted to investigate the timing of the breeding season of western hedgehogs (Erinaceus europaeus) in a rural landscape in Ireland, their courtship activity and the first appearance and possible dispersal of juveniles. Between June 2008 and June 2010, 24 hedgehogs (18 ♂ and 6 ♀) were caught and monitored by radio tracking and direct following. A preponderance of males was recorded in both adults and juveniles at the study site and the sex ratio deviated significantly from a 1:1 ratio. Courtship behaviour took place between April and July and occurred almost exclusively in a nine ha pasture. An individual female paired with up to seven males in a season. The first appearance of juveniles was recorded in September (2008) and July (2009). The majority (n=22) of juvenile sightings, both alive and as road kill, occurred in July but they continued to be recorded up until November (n=3). The presence of juveniles at the study site in October 2008 and a pregnant female being found in September 2009 indicated that late litters occur in Ireland.

Key Facts in Rural Health : Vulnerable Rural Counties : The Changing Rural Landscape, 2000-2010

In 2008, the U.S. experienced its worst recession since the Great Depression, particularly affecting rural America. The South Carolina Rural Health Research Center used county-level data to examine rural demographic changes over the last decade. Most counties experienced increased levels of poverty between 2000-2010. Rural counties were disproportionately affected. Rural counties experienced a growth in the 65 and older population while losing children. Rural counties gained in racial/ethnic diversity.

Vulnerable Rural Counties: The Changing Rural Landscape, 2000–2010

Understanding the demography of rural America is vital to understanding what programs, interventions and policy initiatives are needed to improve health care access, delivery and outcomes. Overall findings suggest that rural America experienced the recession that ended the 2000–2010 decade more severely than did urban America. Loss of income, declining population and reduced health care resources marked the period for most rural counties. Rural counties will need continued monitoring in the present decade to ascertain whether these adverse trends continue and to identify any policy approaches that can serve to ameliorate losses in health care services.

Measuring societal awareness of the rural agrarian landscape: indicators and scale issues

The work presented in this report is part of the effort to define the landscape state and diversity indicator in the frame of COM (2006) 508 “Development of agri-environmental indicators for monitoring the integration of environmental concerns into the common agricultural policy”. The Communication classifies the indicators according to their level of development, which, for the landscape indicator is “in need of substantial improvements in order to become fully operational”. For this reason a full re-definition of the indicator has been carried out, following the initial proposal presented in the frame of the IRENA operation (“Indicator Reporting on the Integration of Environmental Concerns into Agricultural Policy”). The new proposal for the landscape state and diversity indicator is structured in three components: the first concerns the degree of naturalness, the second landscape structure, the third the societal appreciation of the rural landscape. While the first two components rely on a strong bulk of existing literature, the development of the methodology has made evident the need for further analysis of the third component, which is based on a newly proposed top-down approach. This report presents an in-depth analysis of such component of the indicator, and the effort to include a social dimension in large scale landscape assessment.

The culture of the journey as structure of the landscape: an inquiry on mobility facilities and identity of place

The structure of the travel, meant as cultural activity, is proposed as a key to read and design the urban or rural landscape.

The Medway Valley: a Kent landscape transformed

In 1750 the lower Medway Valley, the area between the towns of Maidstone and Rochester, was firmly part of Kent's 'Garden of England'. A century later, this tranquil, agrarian landscape had been transformed into a hive of industry and commerce, through the emergence of papermaking, cement manufacture, brickmaking, brewing, ship and barge building, seed crushing and engineering. The lower Medway Valley became synonymous with the production of Portland cement, stock bricks and the steam engines of Aveling and Porter, yet, by the end of the Second World War, much of this industry was gone. "The Medway Valley: A Kent Landscape Transformed", the first Victoria County History publication in Kent for over 75 years, charts this cyclical story of landscape change. It explores how the quiet, rural landscape of a collection of eight riverside parishes around Rochester was dramatically transformed during industrialization, before returning to its formal rural state. This volume traces the impact of industrial development and decline on the valley and its people. It details changing patterns of work and society, the creation of new settlements and the pivotal role of the river in all aspects of village life reflecting two centuries of change and upheaval.