Application of a digital elevation model for flood modeling for the Pagsangaan River in Leyte

Flood related scientific and community-based data are rarely systematically collected and analysed in the Philippines. Over the last decades the Pagsangaan River Basin, Leyte, has experienced several flood events. However, documentation describing flood characteristics such as extent, duration or height of these floods are close to non-existing. To address this issue, computerized flood modelling was used to reproduce past events where there was data available for at least partial calibration and validation. The model was also used to provide scenario-based predictions based on A1B climate change assumptions for the area. The most important input for flood modelling is a Digital Elevation Model (DEM) of the river basin. No accurate topographic maps or Light Detection And Ranging (LIDAR)-generated data are available for the Pagsangaan River. Therefore, the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) Global Digital Elevation Map (GDEM), Version 1, was chosen as the DEM. Although the horizontal spatial resolution of 30 m is rather desirable, it contains substantial vertical errors. These were identified, different correction methods were tested and the resulting DEM was used for flood modelling. The above mentioned data were combined with cross-sections at various strategic locations of the river network, meteorological records, river water level, and current velocity to develop the 1D-2D flood model. SOBEK was used as modelling software to create different rainfall scenarios, including historic flooding events. Due to the lack of scientific data for the verification of the model quality, interviews with local stakeholders served as the gauge to judge the quality of the generated flood maps. According to interviewees, the model reflects reality more accurately than previously available flood maps. The resulting flood maps are now used by the operations centre of a local flood early warning system for warnings and evacuation alerts. Furthermore these maps can serve as a basis to identify flood hazard areas for spatial land use planning purposes.

Development of a computer based 1D-2D dynamic flood model. Case study of the Pagsangaan river basin in Leyte, the Philippines

Floods are among the most devastating events that affect primarily tropical, archipelagic countries such as the Philippines. With the current predictions of climate change set to include rising sea levels, intensification of typhoon strength and a general increase in the mean annual precipitation throughout the Philippines, it has become paramount to prepare for the future so that the increased risk of floods on the country does not translate into more economic and human loss. Field work and data gathering was done within the framework of an internship at the former German Technical Cooperation (GTZ) in cooperation with the Local Government Unit of Ormoc City, Leyte, The Philippines, in order to develop a dynamic computer based flood model for the basin of the Pagsangaan River. To this end, different geo-spatial analysis tools such as PCRaster and ArcGIS, hydrological analysis packages and basic engineering techniques were assessed and implemented. The aim was to develop a dynamic flood model and use the development process to determine the required data, availability and impact on the results as case study for flood early warning systems in the Philippines. The hope is that such projects can help to reduce flood risk by including the results of worst case scenario analyses and current climate change predictions into city planning for municipal development, monitoring strategies and early warning systems. The project was developed using a 1D-2D coupled model in SOBEK (Deltares Hydrological modelling software package) and was also used as a case study to analyze and understand the influence of different factors such as land use, schematization, time step size and tidal variation on the flood characteristics. Several sources of relevant satellite data were compared, such as Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) from ASTER and SRTM data, as well as satellite rainfall data from the GIOVANNI server (NASA) and field gauge data. Different methods were used in the attempt to partially calibrate and validate the model to finally simulate and study two Climate Change scenarios based on scenario A1B predictions. It was observed that large areas currently considered not prone to floods will become low flood risk (0.1-1 m water depth). Furthermore, larger sections of the floodplains upstream of the Lilo- an’s Bridge will become moderate flood risk areas (1 - 2 m water depth). The flood hazard maps created for the development of the present project will be presented to the LGU and the model will be used to create a larger set of possible flood prone areas related to rainfall intensity by GTZ’s Local Disaster Risk Management Department and to study possible improvements to the current early warning system and monitoring of the basin section belonging to Ormoc City; recommendations about further enhancement of the geo-hydro-meteorological data to improve the model’s accuracy mainly on areas of interest will also be presented at the LGU.

Truckee River Flood-Control Project, Truckee Meadows (Reno-Sparks Metropolitan Area), Nevada : hydraulic model investigation /

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Uses of airborne scanning laser altimetry for river flood modelling and coastal geomorphology

Two ongoing projects at ESSC that involve the development of new techniques for extracting information from airborne LiDAR data and combining this information with environmental models will be discussed. The first project in conjunction with Bristol University is aiming to improve 2-D river flood flow models by using remote sensing to provide distributed data for model calibration and validation. Airborne LiDAR can provide such models with a dense and accurate floodplain topography together with vegetation heights for parameterisation of model friction. The vegetation height data can be used to specify a friction factor at each node of a model’s finite element mesh. A LiDAR range image segmenter has been developed which converts a LiDAR image into separate raster maps of surface topography and vegetation height for use in the model. Satellite and airborne SAR data have been used to measure flood extent remotely in order to validate the modelled flood extent. Methods have also been developed for improving the models by decomposing the model’s finite element mesh to reflect floodplain features such as hedges and trees having different frictional properties to their surroundings. Originally developed for rural floodplains, the segmenter is currently being extended to provide DEMs and friction parameter maps for urban floods, by fusing the LiDAR data with digital map data. The second project is concerned with the extraction of tidal channel networks from LiDAR. These networks are important features of the inter-tidal zone, and play a key role in tidal propagation and in the evolution of salt-marshes and tidal flats. The study of their morphology is currently an active area of research, and a number of theories related to networks have been developed which require validation using dense and extensive observations of network forms and cross-sections. The conventional method of measuring networks is cumbersome and subjective, involving manual digitisation of aerial photographs in conjunction with field measurement of channel depths and widths for selected parts of the network. A semi-automatic technique has been developed to extract networks from LiDAR data of the inter-tidal zone. A multi-level knowledge-based approach has been implemented, whereby low level algorithms first extract channel fragments based mainly on image properties then a high level processing stage improves the network using domain knowledge. The approach adopted at low level uses multi-scale edge detection to detect channel edges, then associates adjacent anti-parallel edges together to form channels. The higher level processing includes a channel repair mechanism.

The impacts of climate change on river flood risk at the global scale

This paper presents an assessment of the implications of climate change for global river flood risk. It is based on the estimation of flood frequency relationships at a grid resolution of 0.5 × 0.5°, using a global hydrological model with climate scenarios derived from 21 climate models, together with projections of future population. Four indicators of the flood hazard are calculated; change in the magnitude and return period of flood peaks, flood-prone population and cropland exposed to substantial change in flood frequency, and a generalised measure of regional flood risk based on combining frequency curves with generic flood damage functions. Under one climate model, emissions and socioeconomic scenario (HadCM3 and SRES A1b), in 2050 the current 100-year flood would occur at least twice as frequently across 40 % of the globe, approximately 450 million flood-prone people and 430 thousand km2 of flood-prone cropland would be exposed to a doubling of flood frequency, and global flood risk would increase by approximately 187 % over the risk in 2050 in the absence of climate change. There is strong regional variability (most adverse impacts would be in Asia), and considerable variability between climate models. In 2050, the range in increased exposure across 21 climate models under SRES A1b is 31–450 million people and 59 to 430 thousand km2 of cropland, and the change in risk varies between −9 and +376 %. The paper presents impacts by region, and also presents relationships between change in global mean surface temperature and impacts on the global flood hazard. There are a number of caveats with the analysis; it is based on one global hydrological model only, the climate scenarios are constructed using pattern-scaling, and the precise impacts are sensitive to some of the assumptions in the definition and application.

Origin of the Grande Ronde Formation flows, Columbia River flood basalt group

Lavas belonging to the Grande Ronde Formation (GRB) constitute about 63% of the Columbia River Basalt Group (CRBG), a flood basalt province in the NW United States. A puzzling feature is the lack of phenocrysts (< 5%) in these chemically evolved lavas. Based mainly on this observation it has been hypothesized that GRB lavas were nearly primary melts generated by large-scale melting of eclogite. Another recent hypothesis holds that GRB magmas were extremely hydrous and rose rapidly from the mantle such that the dissolved water kept the magmas close to their liquidi. I present new textural and chemical evidence to show that GRB lavas were neither primary nor hydrous melts but were derived from other melts via efficient fractional crystallization and mixing in shallow intrusive systems. Texture and chemical features further suggest that the melt mixing process may have been exothermic, which forced variable melting of some of the existing phenocrysts. ^ Finally, reported here are the results of efforts to simulate the higher pressure histories of GRB using COMAGMAT and MELTS softwares. The intent was to evaluate (1) whether such melts could be derived from primary melts formed by partial melting of a peridotite source as an alternative to the eclogite model, or if bulk melting of eclogite is required; and (2) at what pressure such primary melts could have been in equilibrium with the mantle. I carried out both forward and inverse modeling. The best fit forward model indicates that most primitive parent melts related to GRB could have been multiply saturated at ∼1.5--2.0 GPa. I interpret this result to indicate that the parental melts last equilibrated with a peridotitic mantle at 1.5--2.0 GPa and such partial melts rose to ∼0.2 GPa where they underwent efficient mixing and fractionation before erupting. These models suggest that the source rock was not eclogitic but a fertile spinel lherzolite, and that the melts had ∼0.5% water. ^

Nitrite consumption and associated isotope changes during a river flood event in the Elbe river

In oceans, estuaries, and rivers, nitrification is an important nitrate source, and stable isotopes of nitrate are often used to investigate recycling processes (e.g. remineralisation, nitrification) in the water column. Nitrification is a two-step process, where ammonia is oxidised via nitrite to nitrate. Nitrite usually does not accumulate in natural environments, which makes it difficult to study the single isotope effect of ammonia oxidation or nitrite oxidation in natural systems. However, during an exceptional flood in the Elbe River in June 2013, we found a unique co-occurrence of ammonium, nitrite, and nitrate in the water column, returning towards normal summer conditions within 1 week. Over the course of the flood, we analysed the evolution of d15N-[NH4]+ and d15N-[NO2]- in the Elbe River. In concert with changes in suspended particulate matter (SPM) and d15N SPM, as well as nitrate concentration, d15N-NO3 - and d18O-[NO3] -, we calculated apparent isotope effects during net nitrite and nitrate consumption. During the flood event, > 97 % of total reactive nitrogen was nitrate, which was leached from the catchment area and appeared to be subject to assimilation. Ammonium and nitrite concentrations increased to 3.4 and 4.4 µmol/l, respectively, likely due to remineralisation, nitrification, and denitrification in the water column. d15N-[NH4]+ values increased up to 12 per mil, and d15N-[NO2]- ranged from -8.0 to -14.2 per mil. Based on this, we calculated an apparent isotope effect 15-epsilon of -10.0 ± 0.1 per mil during net nitrite consumption, as well as an isotope effect 15-epsilon of -4.0 ± 0.1 per mil and 18-epsilon of -5.3 ± 0.1 per mil during net nitrate consumption. On the basis of the observed nitrite isotope changes, we evaluated different nitrite uptake processes in a simple box model. We found that a regime of combined riparian denitrification and 22 to 36 % nitrification fits best with measured data for the nitrite concentration decrease and isotope increase.

Turbulent velocity and suspended sediment concentration measurements in an urban environment of the Brisbane River Flood Plain at Gardens Point on 12-13 January 2011

The flood flow in urbanised areas constitutes a major hazard to the population and infrastructure as seen during the summer 2010-2011 floods in Queensland (Australia). Flood flows in urban environments have been studied relatively recently, although no study considered the impact of turbulence in the flow. During the 12-13 January 2011 flood of the Brisbane River, some turbulence measurements were conducted in an inundated urban environment in Gardens Point Road next to Brisbane's central business district (CBD) at relatively high frequency (50 Hz). The properties of the sediment flood deposits were characterised and the acoustic Doppler velocimeter unit was calibrated to obtain both instantaneous velocity components and suspended sediment concentration in the same sampling volume with the same temporal resolution. While the flow motion in Gardens Point Road was subcritical, the water elevations and velocities fluctuated with a distinctive period between 50 and 80 s. The low frequency fluctuations were linked with some local topographic effects: i.e, some local choke induced by an upstream constriction between stairwells caused some slow oscillations with a period close to the natural sloshing period of the car park. The instantaneous velocity data were analysed using a triple decomposition, and the same triple decomposition was applied to the water depth, velocity flux, suspended sediment concentration and suspended sediment flux data. The velocity fluctuation data showed a large energy component in the slow fluctuation range. For the first two tests at z = 0.35 m, the turbulence data suggested some isotropy. At z = 0.083 m, on the other hand, the findings indicated some flow anisotropy. The suspended sediment concentration (SSC) data presented a general trend with increasing SSC for decreasing water depth. During a test (T4), some long -period oscillations were observed with a period about 18 minutes. The cause of these oscillations remains unknown to the authors. The last test (T5) took place in very shallow waters and high suspended sediment concentrations. It is suggested that the flow in the car park was disconnected from the main channel. Overall the flow conditions at the sampling sites corresponded to a specific momentum between 0.2 to 0.4 m2 which would be near the upper end of the scale for safe evacuation of individuals in flooded areas. But the authors do not believe the evacuation of individuals in Gardens Point Road would have been safe because of the intense water surges and flow turbulence. More generally any criterion for safe evacuation solely based upon the flow velocity, water depth or specific momentum cannot account for the hazards caused by the flow turbulence, water depth fluctuations and water surges.

Turbulence and suspended sediment measurements in an urban environment during the Brisbane River flood of January 2011

In urbanised areas, the flood flows constitute a hazard to populations and infrastructure as illustrated during major floods in 2011. During the 2011 Brisbane River flood, some turbulent velocity data were collected using acoustic Doppler velocimetry in an inundated street. The field deployment showed some unusual features of flood flow in the urban environment. That is, the water elevations and velocities fluctuated with distinctive periods between 50 and 100 s linked with some local topographic effects. The instantaneous velocity data were analysed using a triple decomposition. The velocity fluctuations included a large energy component in the slow fluctuation range, while the turbulent motion components were much smaller. The suspended sediment data showed some significant longitudinal flux. Altogether the results highlighted that the triple decomposition approach originally developed for period flows is well suited to complicated flows in an inundated urban environment.

Using airborne laser altimetry to improve river flood extents delineated from SAR data

Flood extent maps derived from SAR images are a useful source of data for validating hydraulic models of river flood flow. The accuracy of such maps is reduced by a number of factors, including changes in returns from the water surface caused by different meteorological conditions and the presence of emergent vegetation. The paper describes how improved accuracy can be achieved by modifying an existing flood extent delineation algorithm to use airborne laser altimetry (LiDAR) as well as SAR data. The LiDAR data provide an additional constraint that waterline (land-water boundary) heights should vary smoothly along the flooded reach. The method was tested on a SAR image of a flood for which contemporaneous aerial photography existed, together with LiDAR data of the un-flooded reach. Waterline heights of the SAR flood extent conditioned on both SAR and LiDAR data matched the corresponding heights from the aerial photo waterline significantly more closely than those from the SAR flood extent conditioned only on SAR data.

Using TerraSAR-X data for improved urban flood model validation.

Urban flood inundation models require considerable data for their parameterisation, calibration and validation. TerraSAR-X should be suitable for urban flood detection because of its high resolution in stripmap/spotlight modes. The paper describes ongoing work on a project to assess how well TerraSAR-X can detect flooded regions in urban areas, and how well these can constrain the parameters of an urban flood model. The study uses a TerraSAR-X image of a 1-in-150 year flood near Tewkesbury, UK , in 2007, for which contemporaneous aerial photography exists for validation. The DLR SETES SAR simulator was used in conjunction with LiDAR data to estimate regions of the image in which water would not be visible due to shadow or layover caused by buildings and vegetation. An algorithm for the delineation of flood water in urban areas is described, together with its validation using the aerial photographs.