Choice under Risk : Theory and Applications

Es útil para estudiantes de postgrado (Master y Doctorado) en cursos de Economía o de Microeconomía en los que se analicen problemas de Decisión en condiciones de Riesgo o Incertidumbre. El documento comienza explicando la Teoría de la Utilidad Esperada. A continuación se estudian la aversión al riesgo, los coeficientes de aversión absoluta y relativa al riesgo, la relación “más averso que” entre agentes económicos y los efectos riqueza sobre las decisiones en algunas relaciones de preferencia utilizadas frecuentemente en el análisis económico. La sección 4 se centra en la comparación entre alternativas arriesgadas en términos de rendimiento y riesgo, considerando la dominancia estocástica de primer y segundo orden y algunas extensiones posteriores de esas relaciones de orden. El documento concluye con doce ejercicios resueltos en los que se aplican los conceptos y resultados expuestos en las secciones anteriores a problemas de decisión en varios contextos

Parents’ risky choices around the IB Diploma

In recent years there has been a rapid growth in the International Baccalaureate Diploma(IBD), a secondary curriculum administered by the International Baccalaureate Organisation(IBO), as an alternative to the local curriculum in Australian schools in some schools. This growth is indicative of an increasing demand from Australian families for new educational structures, practices and processes. With more curriculum options and pathways such as the IBD available in the secondary education system, parents are faced with a more complex high stakes decision when it comes to choosing the optimal education path for their offspring, one which requires a careful assessment of potential outcomes and risks. This paper reports on the responses of 184 parents to an online survey conducted in 26 Australian schools that offer the IBD as a curricular alternative. It examines which parents either chose, or chose not to, enrol their children in the program, why, and what risks they perceived to be associated with that choice. The paper will compare the choice behaviour of the two groups of parents from a sociological perspective, framing the enquiry with reference to globalisation and neo-liberal education policy and its effect on parental choice of schooling. This paper will make evident how parental choice of educational alternatives has become a more complicated process for Australian families.

Friends looking out for friends as an intervention strategy for young adults' risky driving

Young adults are at the greatest risk of experiences road trauma disproportionately to those in other age groups. While the influence of peers is commonly associated with motor vehicle crashes and injury few studies examine whether their influence can be positive. In particular friends may be able to actively intervene to reduce the likelihood of risky driving (e.g. speeding, drink driving or drug driving) and alcohol use. The aim of this paper is to conduct a systematic review on intervening in risky driving behaviour including the situations in which it is likely or unlikely to occur, factors associated with individuals who might or report having intervened and any evaluated programs that make use of such strategies. In addition a study was conducted with 247 first year university students (32% males) to examine whether young adults report engaging in protective behaviour with their peers in South-east Queensland. In particular, if they intervene if their friends are about to drive after drinking, drive after taking illicit drugs or when speeding. It examines any differences in reported likelihood of discouraging such illegal and dangerous behaviour (in the past 12 months prior to the survey). Findings showed that young adults (17-25 years) did indeed report protective behaviour in relation to friends’ drink driving, drug driving, speeding and binge drinking. Conclusions will be drawn regarding important considerations in developing positive strategies and advertising campaigns that encourage positive behaviours (e.g. ‘don’t let mates drink and drive’).

Understanding the psychosocial factors influencing the risky behaviour of young drivers

Young people aged 17–24 years are at high risk of being killed in road crashes around the world. Road safety interventions consider some influences upon young driver behaviour; for example, imposing passenger restrictions on young novice drivers indirectly minimises the potential negative social influences of peers as passengers. To change young driver risky behaviour, the multitude of psychosocial influences upon its initiation and maintenance must be identified. A study questionnaire was developed to investigate the relationships between risky driving and Akers’ social learning theory, social identity theory, and thrill seeking variables. The questionnaire was completed by 165 participants (105 women,60 men) residing in south-east Queensland, Australia. The sociodemographic variables of age, gender, and exposure explained 19% of the variance in self-reported risky driving behaviour, whilst Akers’ social learning variables explained an additional 42%. Thrill seeking and social identity variables did not explain any significant additional variance. Significant predictors of risky driving included imitation of the driving behaviours of, and anticipated rewards and punishments administered by, parents and peers. Road safety policy that directly considers and incorporates these factors in their design, implementation, and enforcement of young driver road safety interventions should prove more efficacious than current approaches.

Identifiable, queer and risky : the role of the body in policing experiences for LGBT young people

This paper explores how visibly non-heteronormative bodies mediate policing experiences of LGBT (lesbian, gay, bisexual, transgender) young people, an area that has been mostly ignored in research about policing young people. Informed by interviews with 35 LGBT young people in Brisbane, Queensland, this paper addresses this gap by exploring how the non-heteronormative body mediates policing experiences of LGBT young people. Drawing on Foucault (1984), Butler (1990a), and other queer theory, the paper argues young non-heteronormative bodies visibly perform ‘queerness’, are read by police, and shape police-LGBT youth interactions. While this is complicated by looking at-risk (in terms of risk factors like homelessness, substance abuse), and looking risky (in terms of risk-taking or criminalised activities), the paper concludes noting how youthful LGBT bodies are regulated by police as non-heteronormative and deviant.

Safeguarding rural Australia : addressing masculinity and violence in rural settings. Data report No. 4 - Risky behaviour - misuse of alcohol, illicit drugs, firearms use and abuse, other risky behaviour

This report focuses on our examination of extant data which have been sourced with respect to personally and socially risky behaviour associated with males living in regional and remote Australia . The AIHW (2008: PHE 97:89) defines personally risky behaviour, on the one hand, as working, swimming, boating, driving or operating hazardous machinery while intoxicated with alcohol or an illicit drug. Socially risky behaviour, on the other hand, is defined as creating a public disturbance, damaging property, stealing or verbally or physically abusing someone while intoxicated with alcohol or an illicit drug. Additional commentary resulting from exploration, examination and analyses of secondary data is published online in complementary reports in this series.

The risky behaviour of young drivers : developing a measurement tool

The contribution of risky behaviour to the increased crash and fatality rates of young novice drivers is recognised in the road safety literature around the world. Exploring such risky driver behaviour has led to the development of tools like the Driver Behaviour Questionnaire (DBQ) to examine driving violations, errors, and lapses [1]. Whilst the DBQ has been utilised in young novice driver research, some items within this tool seem specifically designed for the older, more experienced driver, whilst others appear to asses both behaviour and related motives. The current study was prompted by the need for a risky behaviour measurement tool that can be utilised with young drivers with a provisional driving licence. Sixty-three items exploring young driver risky behaviour developed from the road safety literature were incorporated into an online survey. These items assessed driver, passenger, journey, car and crash-related issues. A sample of 476 drivers aged 17-25 years (M = 19, SD = 1.59 years) with a provisional driving licence and matched for age, gender, and education were drawn from a state-wide sample of 761 young drivers who completed the survey. Factor analysis based upon a principal components extraction of factors was followed by an oblique rotation to investigate the underlying dimensions to young novice driver risky behaviour. A five factor solution comprising 44 items was identified, accounting for 55% of the variance in young driver risky behaviour. Factor 1 accounted for 32.5% of the variance and appeared to measure driving violations that were transient in nature - risky behaviours that followed risky decisions that occurred during the journey (e.g., speeding). Factor 2 accounted for 10.0% of variance and appeared to measure driving violations that were fixed in nature; the risky decisions being undertaken before the journey (e.g., drink driving). Factor 3 accounted for 5.4% of variance and appeared to measure misjudgment (e.g., misjudged speed of oncoming vehicle). Factor 4 accounted for 4.3% of variance and appeared to measure risky driving exposure (e.g., driving at night with friends as passengers). Factor 5 accounted for 2.8% of variance and appeared to measure driver emotions or mood (e.g., anger). Given that the aim of the study was to create a research tool, the factors informed the development of five subscales and one composite scale. The composite scale had a very high internal consistency measure (Cronbach’s alpha) of .947. Self-reported data relating to police-detected driving offences, their crash involvement, and their intentions to break road rules within the next year were also collected. While the composite scale was only weakly correlated with self-reported crashes (r = .16, p < .001), it was moderately correlated with offences (r = .26, p < .001), and highly correlated with their intentions to break the road rules (r = .57, p < .001). Further application of the developed scale is needed to confirm the factor structure within other samples of young drivers both in Australia and in other countries. In addition, future research could explore the applicability of the scale for investigating the behaviour of other types of drivers.

Managing illegal street racing and associated risky driving behaviour : An Australian perspective

Illegal street racing has received increased attention in recent years from the media, governments and road safety professionals. At the same time, there has been a shift from treating illegal street racing as a public nuisance issue to a road safety problem in Australia, as this behaviour now attracts a penalty of increased periods of vehicle impoundment leading to permanent vehicle forfeiture for repeat offences. This severe vehicle sanction is typically applied to repeat drink driving offenders and drivers who breach suspensions and disqualifications in North American jurisdictions, but was first introduced in Australia to deal with illegal street racing and associated risky driving behaviours, grouped together under the label of ‘hooning’ in Australian jurisdictions. This paper describes how Australian jurisdictions are dealing with this issue. The research described in this paper drew on multiple data sources to explore illegal street racing and the management of this issue in Australia. First, the paper reviews the relevant legislation in each Australian state to describe the cross-jurisdictional similarities and differences in approaches. It also describes some results from focus group discussions and a quantitative online survey with drivers who self-report engaging in illegal street racing and associated behaviours in Queensland, Australia. It was found that approaches to dealing with illegal street racing and associated risky driving behaviours in each Australian state are similar, with increasing periods of vehicle impoundment (leading to vehicle forfeiture) applied to repeat hooning offences within prescribed periods. Participants in the focus groups and respondents to the questionnaire generally felt these penalty periods were severe, with perceptions of severity increasing with the length of the penalty period. It was concluded that there is a need for each jurisdiction to objectively evaluate the effectiveness of their vehicle impoundment and forfeiture programs for hooning. These evaluations should compare the relative costs of these programs (e.g., enforcement, unrecovered towing and storage fees, and court costs) to the observed benefits (e.g., reduction in target behaviours, reduction in community complaints, and reduction in the number and severity of associated crashes).

The influence of fatalistic beliefs on risky road use behavior in developing countries

There is little discussion of fatalism in the road safety literature, and limited research. However, fatalism is a potential barrier to participation in health-promoting behaviours, particularly among the populations of developing countries and to some extent in developed countries. Many people still believe in divine discretion and magical powers as causes of road crashes in different parts of the world. Fatalistic beliefs and beliefs in mystical powers and superstition appear to influence perceptions of crash risk and consequently lead people to take risks and neglect safety measures. Fatalistic beliefs may cause individuals to be resigned to risks because they cannot do anything to reduce these risks.

Risky business : making decisions off the cuff

In line with accepted decision making theory, individuals engage in rational decision making. Decisions made under conditions of bounded rationality may have serious adverse consequences. Employees making decisions on behalf of their employer are often faced with situations where perfect and complete information is not available, and time is limited. Under such conditions, we posit that employees will make decisions that are increasingly bounded. At its most extreme neither time nor information is available to make a decision and rational decision making, bounded or not, reaches its limits. Many authors suggest that this is the point at which improvisation takes place. Although opinion in the literature is mixed regarding the efficacy of improvised decisions, we argue that improvised decisions place the organisation at considerable risk and as a consequence are undesirable.