Geochemistry and risk assessment of street dust in Luanda, Angola, a tropical urban environment

A total of 92 samples of street dust were collected in Luanda, Angola, were sieved below 100 μm, and analysed by ICP-MS for 35 elements after an aqua-regia digestion. The concentration and spatial heterogeneity of trace elements in the street dust of Luanda are generally lower than in most industrialized cities in the Northern hemisphere. These observations reveal a predominantly “natural” origin for the street dust in Luanda, which is also manifested in that some geochemical processes that occur in natural soils are preserved in street dust: the separation of uranium from thorium, and the retention of the former by carbonate materials, or the high correlation between arsenic and vanadium due to their common mode of adsorption on solid particles in the form of oxyanions. The only distinct anthropogenic fingerprint in the composition of Luanda's street dust is the association Pb–Cd–Sb–Cu (and to a lesser extent, Ba–Cr–Zn). The use of risk assessment strategies has proved helpful in identifying the routes of exposure to street dust and the trace elements therein of most concern in terms of potential adverse health effects. In Luanda the highest levels of risk seem to be associated (a) with the presence of As and Pb in the street dust and (b) with the route of ingestion of dust particles, for all the elements included in the study except Hg, for which inhalation of vapours presents a slightly higher risk than ingestion. However, given the large uncertainties associated with the estimates of toxicity values and exposure factors, and the absence of site-specific biometric factors, these results should be regarded as preliminary and further research should be undertaken before any definite conclusions regarding potential health effects are drawn.

Risk assessment and preventive strategies for herbicide resistance in NR (phase III)

The threat and management of glyphosate# resistant weeds are major issues facing northern region growers. At present five weeds are confirmed glyphosate-resistant: barnyard grass, liverseed grass, windmill grass, annual ryegrass and flaxleaf fleabane. This project used 25 experiments to investigate the ecology of the grass weeds, plus new or improved chemical and non-chemical control tactics for them. The refined glyphosate resistance model developed in this project used the experiments' findings to predict the long-term impacts on evolution of resistance and on seed bank numbers of resistant weeds. These data led to revised management and resistance avoidance strategies, which were published in the Reporter newsletter, and via an on-line risk assessment tool. - See more at: http://finalreports.grdc.com.au/UQ00054#sthash.oTkCN4Sk.dpuf

Risk-assessment practices in the private rental sector : implications for low-income renters (Final Report)

This report focuses on risk-assessment practices in the private rental market, with particular consideration of their impact on low-income renters. It is based on the fieldwork undertaken in the second stage of the research process that followed completion of the Positioning Paper. The key research question this study addressed was: What are the various factors included in ‘risk-assessments’ by real estate agents in allocating ‘affordable’ tenancies? How are these risks quantified and managed? What are the key outcomes of their decision-making? The study builds on previous research demonstrating that a relatively large proportion of low-cost private rental accommodation is occupied by moderate- to high-income households (Wulff and Yates 2001; Seelig 2001; Yates et al. 2004). This is occurring in an environment where the private rental sector is now the de facto main provider of rental housing for lower-income households across Australia (Seelig et al. 2005) and where a number of factors are implicated in patterns of ‘income–rent mismatching’. These include ongoing shifts in public housing assistance; issues concerning eligibility for rent assistance; ‘supply’ factors, such as loss of low-cost rental stock through upgrading and/or transfer to owner-occupied housing; patterns of supply and demand driven largely by middle- to high-income owner-investors and renters; and patterns of housing need among low-income households for whom affordable housing is not appropriate. In formulating a way of approaching the analysis of ‘risk-assessment’ in rental housing management, this study has applied three sociological perspectives on risk: Beck’s (1992) formulation of risk society as entailing processes of ‘individualisation’; a socio-cultural perspective which emphasises the situated nature of perceptions of risk; and a perspective which has drawn attention to different modes of institutional governance of subjects, as ‘carriers of specific indicators of risk’. The private rental market was viewed as a social institution, and the research strategy was informed by ‘institutional ethnography’ as a method of enquiry. The study was based on interviews with property managers, real estate industry representatives, tenant advocates and community housing providers. The primary focus of inquiry was on ‘the moment of allocation’. Six local areas across metropolitan and regional Queensland, New South Wales, and South Australia were selected as case study localities. In terms of the main findings, it is evident that access to private rental housing is not just a matter of ‘supply and demand’. It is also about assessment of risk among applicants. Risk – perceived or actual – is thus a critical factor in deciding who gets housed, and how. Risk and its assessment matter in the context of housing provision and in the development of policy responses. The outcomes from this study also highlight a number of salient points: 1.There are two principal forms of risk associated with property management: financial risk and risk of litigation. 2. Certain tenant characteristics and/or circumstances – ability to pay and ability to care for the rented property – are the main factors focused on in assessing risk among applicants for rental housing. Signals of either ‘(in)ability to pay’ and/or ‘(in)ability to care for the property’ are almost always interpreted as markers of high levels of risk. 3. The processing of tenancy applications entails a complex and variable mix of formal and informal strategies of risk-assessment and allocation where sorting (out), ranking, discriminating and handing over characterise the process. 4. In the eyes of property managers, ‘suitable’ tenants can be conceptualised as those who are resourceful, reputable, competent, strategic and presentable. 5. Property managers clearly articulated concern about risks entailed in a number of characteristics or situations. Being on a low income was the principal and overarching factor which agents considered. Others included: - unemployment - ‘big’ families; sole parent families - domestic violence - marital breakdown - shift from home ownership to private rental - Aboriginality and specific ethnicities - physical incapacity - aspects of ‘presentation’. The financial vulnerability of applicants in these groups can be invoked, alongside expressed concerns about compromised capacities to manage income and/or ‘care for’ the property, as legitimate grounds for rejection or a lower ranking. 6. At the level of face-to-face interaction between the property manager and applicants, more intuitive assessments of risk based upon past experience or ‘gut feelings’ come into play. These judgements are interwoven with more systematic procedures of tenant selection. The findings suggest that considerable ‘risk’ is associated with low-income status, either directly or insofar as it is associated with other forms of perceived risk, and that such risks are likely to impede access to the professionally managed private rental market. Detailed analysis suggests that opportunities for access to housing by low-income householders also arise where, for example: - the ‘local experience’ of an agency and/or property manager works in favour of particular applicants - applicants can demonstrate available social support and financial guarantors - an applicant’s preference or need for longer-term rental is seen to provide a level of financial security for the landlord - applicants are prepared to agree to specific, more stringent conditions for inspection of properties and review of contracts - the particular circumstances and motivations of landlords lead them to consider a wider range of applicants - In particular circumstances, property managers are prepared to give special consideration to applicants who appear worthy, albeit ‘risky’. The strategic actions of demonstrating and documenting on the part of vulnerable (low-income) tenant applicants can improve their chances of being perceived as resourceful, capable and ‘savvy’. Such actions are significant because they help to persuade property managers not only that the applicant may have sufficient resources (personal and material) but that they accept that the onus is on themselves to show they are reputable, and that they have valued ‘competencies’ and understand ‘how the system works’. The parameters of the market do shape the processes of risk-assessment and, ultimately, the strategic relation of power between property manager and the tenant applicant. Low vacancy rates and limited supply of lower-cost rental stock, in all areas, mean that there are many more tenant applicants than available properties, creating a highly competitive environment for applicants. The fundamental problem of supply is an aspect of the market that severely limits the chances of access to appropriate and affordable housing for low-income rental housing applicants. There is recognition of the impact of this problem of supply. The study indicates three main directions for future focus in policy and program development: providing appropriate supports to tenants to access and sustain private rental housing, addressing issues of discrimination and privacy arising in the processes of selecting suitable tenants, and addressing problems of supply.

Risk assessment for airborne infectious diseases between natural ventilation and split-system air conditioner in a university classroom

Indoor air quality is a critical factor in the classroom due to high people concentration in a unique space. Indoor air pollutant might increase the chance of both long and short-term health problems among students and staff, reduce the productivity of teachers and degrade the student’s learning environment and comfort. Adequate air distribution strategies may reduce risk of infection in classroom. So, the purpose of air distribution systems in a classroom is not only to maximize conditions for thermal comfort, but also to remove indoor contaminants. Natural ventilation has the potential to play a significant role in achieving improvements in IAQ. The present study compares the risk of airborne infection between Natural Ventilation (opening windows and doors) and a Split-System Air Conditioner in a university classroom. The Wells-Riley model was used to predict the risk of indoor airborne transmission of infectious diseases such as influenza, measles and tuberculosis. For each case, the air exchange rate was measured using a CO2 tracer gas technique. It was found that opening windows and doors provided an air exchange rate of 2.3 air changes/hour (ACH), while with the Split System it was 0.6 ACH. The risk of airborne infection ranged between 4.24 to 30.86 % when using the Natural Ventilation and between 8.99 to 43.19% when using the Split System. The difference of airborne infection risk between the Split System and the Natural Ventilation ranged from 47 to 56%. Opening windows and doors maximize Natural Ventilation so that the risk of airborne contagion is much lower than with Split System.

Human health risk assessment of heavy metals in urban stormwater

Toxic chemical pollutants such as heavy metals (HMs) are commonly present in urban stormwater. These pollutants can pose a significant risk to human health and hence a significant barrier for urban stormwater reuse. The primary aim of this study was to develop an approach for quantitatively assessing the risk to human health due to the presence of HMs in stormwater. This approach will lead to informed decision making in relation to risk management of urban stormwater reuse, enabling efficient implementation of appropriate treatment strategies. In this study, risks to human health from heavy metals were assessed as hazard index (HI) and quantified as a function of traffic and land use related parameters. Traffic and land use are the primary factors influencing heavy metal loads in the urban environment. The risks posed by heavy metals associated with total solids and fine solids (<150µm) were considered to represent the maximum and minimum risk levels, respectively. The study outcomes confirmed that Cr, Mn and Pb pose the highest risks, although these elements are generally present in low concentrations. The study also found that even though the presence of a single heavy metal does not pose a significant risk, the presence of multiple heavy metals could be detrimental to human health. These findings suggest that stormwater guidelines should consider the combined risk from multiple heavy metals rather than the threshold concentration of an individual species. Furthermore, it was found that risk to human health from heavy metals in stormwater is significantly influenced by traffic volume and the risk associated with stormwater from industrial areas is generally higher than that from commercial and residential areas.

Clinical utility of a Web-enabled risk-assessment and clinical decision support program.

PURPOSE: Risk-stratified guidelines can improve quality of care and cost-effectiveness, but their uptake in primary care has been limited. MeTree, a Web-based, patient-facing risk-assessment and clinical decision support tool, is designed to facilitate uptake of risk-stratified guidelines. METHODS: A hybrid implementation-effectiveness trial of three clinics (two intervention, one control). PARTICIPANTS: consentable nonadopted adults with upcoming appointments. PRIMARY OUTCOME: agreement between patient risk level and risk management for those meeting evidence-based criteria for increased-risk risk-management strategies (increased risk) and those who do not (average risk) before MeTree and after. MEASURES: chart abstraction was used to identify risk management related to colon, breast, and ovarian cancer, hereditary cancer, and thrombosis. RESULTS: Participants = 488, female = 284 (58.2%), white = 411 (85.7%), mean age = 58.7 (SD = 12.3). Agreement between risk management and risk level for all conditions for each participant, except for colon cancer, which was limited to those <50 years of age, was (i) 1.1% (N = 2/174) for the increased-risk group before MeTree and 16.1% (N = 28/174) after and (ii) 99.2% (N = 2,125/2,142) for the average-risk group before MeTree and 99.5% (N = 2,131/2,142) after. Of those receiving increased-risk risk-management strategies at baseline, 10.5% (N = 2/19) met criteria for increased risk. After MeTree, 80.7% (N = 46/57) met criteria. CONCLUSION: MeTree integration into primary care can improve uptake of risk-stratified guidelines and potentially reduce "overuse" and "underuse" of increased-risk services.Genet Med 18 10, 1020-1028.

Assessing the impact on chronic disease of incorporating the societal cost of greenhouse gases into the price of food: an econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study

Objectives To model the impact on chronic disease of a tax on UK food and drink that internalises the wider costs to society of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions and to estimate the potential revenue. Design An econometric and comparative risk assessment modelling study. Setting The UK. Participants The UK adult population. Interventions Two tax scenarios are modelled: (A) a tax of £2.72/tonne carbon dioxide equivalents (tCO2e)/100 g product applied to all food and drink groups with above average GHG emissions. (B) As with scenario (A) but food groups with emissions below average are subsidised to create a tax neutral scenario. Outcome measures Primary outcomes are change in UK population mortality from chronic diseases following the implementation of each taxation strategy, the change in the UK GHG emissions and the predicted revenue. Secondary outcomes are the changes to the micronutrient composition of the UK diet. Results Scenario (A) results in 7770 (95% credible intervals 7150 to 8390) deaths averted and a reduction in GHG emissions of 18 683 (14 665to 22 889) ktCO2e/year. Estimated annual revenue is £2.02 (£1.98 to £2.06) billion. Scenario (B) results in 2685 (1966 to 3402) extra deaths and a reduction in GHG emissions of 15 228 (11 245to 19 492) ktCO2e/year. Conclusions Incorporating the societal cost of GHG into the price of foods could save 7770 lives in the UK each year, reduce food-related GHG emissions and generate substantial tax revenue. The revenue neutral scenario (B) demonstrates that sustainability and health goals are not always aligned. Future work should focus on investigating the health impact by population subgroup and on designing fiscal strategies to promote both sustainable and healthy diets.

Assessing risk post intervention for an acute coronary syndrome: a review of the risk assessment tools and their development

Considerable variability in survival rate after an acute myocardial infarction exists and accurate risk stratification is of significant importance. The American College of Cardiology and the American Heart Association has recommended early risk stratification using several clinical risk scoring instruments to identify high risk patients. The aim of this paper is to identify secondary cardiovascular risk scoring instruments that could be utilized at the time of intervention for acute coronary syndromes and compare their psychometric properties as they were developed. A search using Medline, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature and the Psychology and Behavioral Sciences Collection data-bases identified studies published between January 1990 and January 2010 used to measure risk after intervention for acute coronary syndrome. Four validated secondary risk prediction scoring instruments were identified for comparison.Secondary risk prediction scoring instruments for the acute coronary syndrome patient population are evidence based, valid and reliable. Use of the instruments by cardiac focused clinicians will aid in the determination of treatment strategies, and estimation of short and long term events and mortality.

Cellular and Molecular Biomarkers for Risk Assessment of Colorectal cancer

The detection of Colorectal Cancer (CRC), at early stages, is one of the proven strategies resulting in a higher cure rate. In recent years, several studies have appeared identifying potential cancer markers in serum, plasma and stool in an attempt to improve actual screening procedures. Thus, the aim of the study was (1) Evaluate MN frequency, (2) Evaluate plasma ultrafiltrate capacity to induce MN formation, (3) Evaluate SEPT9 and NOTCH3 promoter methylation profile in peripheral blood lymphocytes from subjects resulted positive to fecal occult blood test and examined by colonoscopy. MN frequency was significantly higher in subjects with histological diagnosis of CRC and adenoma than control (p ≤ 0.001 and p ≤ 0.01, respectively). About, CF-MN analysis, a statistically significant difference was observed between CRC and control (p ≤ 0.05). On the other hand, SEPT9 and NOTCH3 promoter methylation status was significantly lower in CRC subjects than controls; additionally, NOTCH3 promoter methylation status was significantly lower in CRC subjects than adenoma subjects (p ≤ 0.01). The results obtained allow conclude that MN frequency varies according CRC pathologic status and, together with other variables, is a valid biomarker for adenoma and CRC risk. Additionally, the plasma of patients affected with CRC not only serve as a biomarker for oxidative stress but also as biomarker of genetic damage correlated with the carcinogenic process that verifies in colon-rectum. SEPT9 and NOTCH3 promoter methylation status, at peripheral blood level, varies according hystopathological changes observed in colon-rectum, suggesting that promoter methylation profile of these genes could be a reliable biomarker for CRC risk.

From fall-risk assessment to fall detection: inertial sensors in the clinical routine and daily life

Falls are caused by complex interaction between multiple risk factors which may be modified by age, disease and environment. A variety of methods and tools for fall risk assessment have been proposed, but none of which is universally accepted. Existing tools are generally not capable of providing a quantitative predictive assessment of fall risk. The need for objective, cost-effective and clinically applicable methods would enable quantitative assessment of fall risk on a subject-specific basis. Tracking objectively falls risk could provide timely feedback about the effectiveness of administered interventions enabling intervention strategies to be modified or changed if found to be ineffective. Moreover, some of the fundamental factors leading to falls and what actually happens during a fall remain unclear. Objectively documented and measured falls are needed to improve knowledge of fall in order to develop more effective prevention strategies and prolong independent living. In the last decade, several research groups have developed sensor-based automatic or semi-automatic fall risk assessment tools using wearable inertial sensors. This approach may also serve to detect falls. At the moment, i) several fall-risk assessment studies based on inertial sensors, even if promising, lack of a biomechanical model-based approach which could provide accurate and more detailed measurements of interests (e.g., joint moments, forces) and ii) the number of published real-world fall data of older people in a real-world environment is minimal since most authors have used simulations with healthy volunteers as a surrogate for real-world falls. With these limitations in mind, this thesis aims i) to suggest a novel method for the kinematics and dynamics evaluation of functional motor tasks, often used in clinics for the fall-risk evaluation, through a body sensor network and a biomechanical approach and ii) to define the guidelines for a fall detection algorithm based on a real-world fall database availability.

Towards dynamics in flood risk assessment

As a consequence of flood impacts, communities inhabiting mountain areas are increasingly affected by considerable damage to infrastructure and property. The design of effective flood risk mitigation strategies and their subsequent implementation is crucial for a sustainable development in mountain areas. The assessment of the dynamic evolution of flood risk is the pillar of any subsequent planning process that is targeted at a reduction of the expected adverse consequences of the hazard impact. Given these premises, firstly, a comprehensive method to derive flood hazard process scenarios for well-defined areas at risk is presented. Secondly, conceptualisations of a static and dynamic flood risk assessment are provided. These are based on formal schemes to compute the risk mitigation performance of devised mitigation strategies within the framework of economic cost-benefit analysis. In this context, techniques suitable to quantify the expected losses induced by the identified flood impacts are provided.

Risk assessment and preventive measures

A prerequisite for preventive measures is to diagnose erosive tooth wear and to evaluate the different etiological factors in order to identify persons at risk. No diagnostic device is available for the assessment of erosive defects. Thus, they can only be detected clinically. Consequently, erosion not diagnosed in the early stage may render timely preventive measures difficult. In order to assess the risk factors, patient should record their dietary intake for a distinct period of time. Then a dentist can determine the erosive potential of the diet. Particularly, patients with more than four dietary acid intakes have a higher risk for erosion when other risk factors (such as holding the drink in the mouth) are present. Regurgitation of gastric acids (reflux, vomiting, alcohol abuse, etc.) is a further important risk factor for the development of erosion which has to be taken into account. Based on these analyses, an individually tailored preventive program may be suggested to the patients. It may comprise dietary advice, optimization of fluoride regimes, stimulation of salivary flow rate, use of buffering medicaments and particular motivation for nondestructive toothbrushing habits with a low abrasive toothpaste. The frequent use of fluoride gel and fluoride solution in addition to fluoride toothpaste offers the opportunity to reduce somewhat abrasion of tooth substance. It is also advisable to avoid abrasive tooth cleaning and whitening products, since they may remove the pellicle and may render teeth more susceptible to erosion. Since erosion, attrition and abrasion often occur simultaneously all causative components must be taken into consideration when planning preventive strategies.

Probabilistic-based hurricane risk assessment and mitigation considering the potential impacts of climate change

Studies are suggesting that hurricane hazard patterns (e.g. intensity and frequency) may change as a consequence of the changing global climate. As hurricane patterns change, it can be expected that hurricane damage risks and costs may change as a result. This indicates the necessity to develop hurricane risk assessment models that are capable of accounting for changing hurricane hazard patterns, and develop hurricane mitigation and climatic adaptation strategies. This thesis proposes a comprehensive hurricane risk assessment and mitigation strategies that account for a changing global climate and that has the ability of being adapted to various types of infrastructure including residential buildings and power distribution poles. The framework includes hurricane wind field models, hurricane surge height models and hurricane vulnerability models to estimate damage risks due to hurricane wind speed, hurricane frequency, and hurricane-induced storm surge and accounts for the timedependant properties of these parameters as a result of climate change. The research then implements median insured house values, discount rates, housing inventory, etc. to estimate hurricane damage costs to residential construction. The framework was also adapted to timber distribution poles to assess the impacts climate change may have on timber distribution pole failure. This research finds that climate change may have a significant impact on the hurricane damage risks and damage costs of residential construction and timber distribution poles. In an effort to reduce damage costs, this research develops mitigation/adaptation strategies for residential construction and timber distribution poles. The costeffectiveness of these adaptation/mitigation strategies are evaluated through the use of a Life-Cycle Cost (LCC) analysis. In addition, a scenario-based analysis of mitigation strategies for timber distribution poles is included. For both residential construction and timber distribution poles, adaptation/mitigation measures were found to reduce damage costs. Finally, the research develops the Coastal Community Social Vulnerability Index (CCSVI) to include the social vulnerability of a region to hurricane hazards within this hurricane risk assessment. This index quantifies the social vulnerability of a region, by combining various social characteristics of a region with time-dependant parameters of hurricanes (i.e. hurricane wind and hurricane-induced storm surge). Climate change was found to have an impact on the CCSVI (i.e. climate change may have an impact on the social vulnerability of hurricane-prone regions).

Risk assessment and causal preventive measures.

A prerequisite for preventive measures is to diagnose erosive tooth wear and to evaluate the different etiological factors in order to identify persons at risk. No diagnostic device is available for the assessment of erosive defects. Thus, they can only be detected clinically. Consequently, erosion not diagnosed at an early stage may render timely preventive measures difficult. In order to assess the risk factors, patients should record their dietary intake for a distinct period of time. Then a dentist can determine the erosive potential of the diet. A table with common beverages and foodstuffs is presented for judging the erosive potential. Particularly, patients with more than 4 dietary acid intakes have a higher risk for erosion when other risk factors are present. Regurgitation of gastric acids is a further important risk factor for the development of erosion which has to be taken into account. Based on these analyses, an individually tailored preventive program may be suggested to the patients. It may comprise dietary advice, use of calcium-enriched beverages, optimization of prophylactic regimes, stimulation of salivary flow rate, use of buffering medicaments and particular motivation for nondestructive toothbrushing habits with an erosive-protecting toothpaste as well as rinsing solutions. Since erosion and abrasion often occur simultaneously, all of the causative components must be taken into consideration when planning preventive strategies but only those important and feasible for an individual should be communicated to the patient.