A gestão baseada no valor: Métricas tradicionais e medidas de performance ajustada ao risco. Risk Adjusted Return on Capital (RAROC) - Aplicação prática à actividade bancária

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

Criação de valor, gestão de risco e as medidas de performance ajustadas ao risco: aplicação do RAROC - Risk Adjustment Return on Capital - ao grupo crédito agrícola

Mestrado em Contabilidade e Gestão das Instituições Financeiras

How often does direct real estate increase the risk-adjusted performance of the US mixed-asset portfolio?

The “case for real estate” in the mixed-asset portfolio is a topic of continuing interest to practitioners and academics. The argument is typically made by comparing efficient frontiers of portfolio with real estate to those that exclude real estate. However, most investors will have held inefficient portfolios. Thus, when analysing the real estate’s place in the mixed-asset portfolio it seems illogical to do so by comparing the difference in risk-adjusted performance between efficient portfolios, which few if any investor would have held. The approach adopted here, therefore, is to compare the risk-adjusted performance of a number of mixed-asset portfolios without real estate (which may or not be efficient) with a very large number of mixed-asset portfolios that include real estate (which again may or may not be efficient), to see the proportion of the time when there is an increase in risk-adjusted performance, significant or otherwise using appraisal-based and de-smoothed annual data from 1952-2003. So to the question how often does the addition of private real estate lead to increases the risk-adjusted performance compared with mixed-asset portfolios without real estate the answer is almost all the time. However, significant increases are harder to find. Additionally, a significant increase in risk-adjusted performance can come from either reductions in portfolio risk or increases in return depending on the investors’ initial portfolio structure. In other words, simply adding real estate to a mixed-asset portfolio is not enough to ensure significant increases in performance as the results are dependent on the percentage added and the proper reallocation of the initial portfolio mix in the expanded portfolio.

Pairs trading in the UK equity market: risk and return

In this paper, we provide the first comprehensive UK evidence on the profitability of the pairs trading strategy. Evidence suggests that the strategy performs well in crisis periods, so we control for both risk and liquidity to assess performance. To evaluate the effect of market frictions on the strategy, we use several estimates of transaction costs. We also present evidence on the performance of the strategy in different economic and market states. Our results show that pairs trading portfolios typically have little exposure to known equity risk factors such as market, size, value, momentum and reversal. However, a model controlling for risk and liquidity explains a far larger proportion of returns. Incorporating different assumptions about bid-ask spreads leads to reductions in performance estimates. When we allow for time-varying risk exposures, conditioned on the contemporaneous equity market return, risk-adjusted returns are generally not significantly different from zero.

Risk and return: The international expansion of EDP Renováveis

A Work Project, presented as part of the requirements for the Award of a Masters Degree in Finance from the NOVA – School of Business and Economics

Anatomy of the portuguese stock market risk and return in the 1977-2012 period

This paper analyses the Portuguese stock market since it reopened in 1977, with a special focus on the evolution of the statistic and stochastic characteristics of the market return throughout this 36 year period. The market return for the period of time between 1977 and 2012 (September 28th) is estimated and then compared with the return that would have been achieved with Government bonds and treasury bills, which allows us to confirm that the hierarchy of return / risk across the different financial instruments is verified. The market risk premium for this 36 year period is also estimated and a comparison with other markets is performed, suggesting that the Portuguese market’s risk has not been compensated by an adequate return. The study also examines the evolution of the Portuguese market’s volatility in the 1977-2012 period and compares it with other markets, showing the existence of extremely high peaks during the first 11 years, but indicating a downwards trend throughout the whole period under analysis. Finally, the correlation between market returns for Portugal and for other countries and the degree of integration are estimated and their evolution throughout time is assessed, leading to the conclusion that the performance of the Portuguese stock market has become increasingly correlated with major European markets – correlation with some markets close to 0.70 from 2000 onwards-, but that country-specific risk factors are still relevant.

Learning about Risk and Return: A Simple Model of Bubbles and Crashes

This paper demonstrates that an asset pricing model with least-squares learning can lead to bubbles and crashes as endogenous responses to the fundamentals driving asset prices. When agents are risk-averse they need to make forecasts of the conditional variance of a stock’s return. Recursive updating of both the conditional variance and the expected return implies several mechanisms through which learning impacts stock prices. Extended periods of excess volatility, bubbles and crashes arise with a frequency that depends on the extent to which past data is discounted. A central role is played by changes over time in agents’ estimates of risk.

Risk-adjusted poverty in Argentina: measurement and determinants

Includes bibliography

Pre- and posttransplant management of solid organ transplant recipients: risk-adjusted follow-up

Solid organ transplant recipients (SOTR) have an increased risk of skin cancer due to their long-term immunosuppressive state. As the number of these patients is increasing, as well as their life expectancy, it is important to discuss the screening and management of skin cancer in this group of patients. The role of the dermatologist, in collaboration with the transplant team, is important both before transplantation, where patients are screened for skin lesions and the individual risk for skin cancer development is assessed, and after transplantation. Posttransplant management consists of regular dermatological consultations (the frequency depends on different factors discussed below), where early skin cancer screening and management, as well as patient education on sun protective behavior is taught and enforced. Indeed, SOTR are very sensitive to sun damage due to their immunosuppressive state, leading to cumulative sun damage which results in field cancerization with numerous lesions such as in situ squamous cell carcinoma, actinic keratosis and Bowen's disease. These lesions should be recognized and treated as early as possible. Therapeutic options discussed will involve topical therapy, surgical management, adjustment of the patient's immunosuppressive therapy (i.e. reduction of immunosuppression and/or switch to mammalian target of rapamycin inhibitors) and chemoprevention with the retinoid acitretin, which reduces the recurrence rate of squamous cell carcinoma. The dermatological follow-up of SOTR should be integrated into the comprehensive posttransplant care.