Demand aggregation and credit risk effects in pooled procurement: evidence from the Brazilian public purchases of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies

Pooled procurement has an important role in reducing acquisition prices of goods. A pool of buyers, which aggregates demand for its members, increases bargaining power and allows suppliers to achieve economies of scale and scope in the production. Such aggregation demand e ect lowers prices paid for buyers. However, when a buyer with a good reputation for paying suppliers in a timely manner is joined in the pool by a buyer with bad reputation may have its price paid increased due to the credit risk e ect on prices. This will happen because prices paid in a pooled procurement should refect the (higher) average buyers' credit risk. Using a data set on Brazilian public purchases of pharmaceuticals and medical supplies, we nd evidence supporting both e ects. We show that the prices paid by public bodies in Brazil are lower when they buy through pooled procurement than individually. On the other hand, federal agencies (i.e. good buyers) pay higher prices for products when they are joined by state agencies (i.e. bad buyers) in a pool. Such evidence suggests that pooled procurement should be carefully designed to avoid that prices paid increase for its members.

A Meta-Analysis of Predation Risk Effects on Pollinator Behaviour

Conselho Nacional de Desenvolvimento Científico e Tecnológico (CNPq)

Predation-risk effects of predator identity on the foraging behaviors of frugivorous bats

Predators directly and indirectly affect the density and the behavior of prey. These effects may potentially cascade down to lower trophic levels. In this study, we tested the effects of predator calls (playbacks of bird vocalizations: Tyto alba, Speotyto cunicularia, and Vanellus chilensis), predator visual stimuli (stuffed birds) and interactions of visual and auditory cues, on the behavior of frugivore phyllostomid bats in the field. In addition, we tested if the effects of predation risk cascade down to other trophic levels by measuring rates of seed dispersal of the tree Muntingia calabura. Using video recording, we found that bats significantly decreased the foraging frequency on trees when a visual cue of T. alba was present. However, no stimuli of potential predatory birds, including vocalization of T. alba, affected bat foraging frequency. There was a change in bat behavior during 7 min, but then their frequency of activity gradually increased. Consequently, the presence of T. alba decreased by up to ten times the rate of seed removal. These results indicate that risk sensitivity of frugivorous phyllostomid bats depends on predator identity and presence. Among the predators used in this study, only T. alba is an effective bat predator in the Neotropics. Sound stimuli of T. alba seem not to be a cue of predation risk, possibly because their vocalizations are used only for intraspecific communication. This study emphasizes the importance of evaluating different predator stimuli on the behavior of vertebrates, as well as the effects of these stimuli on trait-mediated trophic cascades. © 2013 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

Diversification, size and risk: The case of bank acquisitions of nonbank financial firms

We investigate the risk effects of bank acquisitions of insurance companies and securities firms between 1991 and 2012 using a newly constructed dataset of M&A deals. We examine risk changes before and after deal announcements by decomposing risk into systematic and idiosyncratic components. Subsequently, we investigate the relationship between risk and diversification by modelling the determinants of risks. We find that bank combinations with securities firms yield higher risks than combinations with insurance companies. Bank size is an important and consistent determinant of risk whereas diversification is not. Our results inform the continuing debate on diversification versus functional separation of bank activities.

Bt cotton and production risk: Panel data evidence

The farm-level success of Bt-cotton in developing countries is well documented. However, the literature has only recently begun to recognise the importance of accounting for the effects of the technology on production risk, in addition to the mean effect estimated by previous studies. The risk effects of the technology are likely very important to smallholder farmers in the developing world due to their risk-aversion. We advance the emergent literature on Bt-cotton and production risk by using panel data methods to control for possible endogeneity of Bt-adoption. We estimate two models, the first a fixed-effects version of the Just and Pope model with additive individual and time effects, and the second a variation of the model in which inputs and variety choice are allowed to affect the variance of the time effect and its correlation with the idiosyncratic error. The models are applied to panel data on smallholder cotton production in India and South Africa. Our results suggest a risk-reducing effect of Bt-cotton in India, but an inconclusive picture in South Africa.

Perceived Risk of Predation Affects Reproductive Life - History Traits in Gambusia holbrooki, but Not in Heterandria formosa

Key to predicting impacts of predation is understanding the mechanisms through which predators impact prey populations. While consumptive effects are well-known, non-consumptive predator effects (risk effects) are increasingly being recognized as important. Studies of risk effects, however, have focused largely on how trade-offs between food and safety affect fitness. Less documented, and appreciated, is the potential for predator presence to directly suppress prey reproduction and affect life-history characteristics. For the first time, we tested the effects of visual predator cues on reproduction of two prey species with different reproductive modes, lecithotrophy (i.e. embryonic development primarily fueled by yolk) and matrotrophy (i.e. energy for embryonic development directly supplied by the mother to the embryo through a vascular connection). Predation risk suppressed reproduction in the lecithotrophic prey (Gambusia holbrokii) but not the matrotroph (Heterandria formosa). Predator stress caused G. holbrooki to reduce clutch size by 43%, and to produce larger and heavier offspring compared to control females. H. formosa, however, did not show any such difference. In G. holbrooki we also found a significantly high percentage (14%) of stillbirths in predator-exposed treatments compared to controls (2%). To the best of our knowledge, this is the first direct empirical evidence of predation stress affecting stillbirths in prey. Our results suggest that matrotrophy, superfetation (clutch overlap), or both decrease the sensitivity of mothers to environmental fluctuation in resource (food) and stress (predation risk) levels compared to lecithotrophy. These mechanisms should be considered both when modeling consequences of perceived risk of predation on prey-predator population dynamics and when seeking to understand the evolution of reproductive modes.

GPRA and the asthma locus on chromosome 7p14-p15

The basis of this work was the identification of a genomic region on chromosome 7p14-p15 that strongly associated with asthma and high serum total immunoglobulin E in a Finnish founder population from Kainuu. Using a hierarchical genotyping approach the linkage region was narrowed down until an evolutionary collectively inherited 133-kb haplotype block was discovered. The results were confirmed in two independent data sets: Asthma families from Quebec and allergy families from North-Karelia. In all the three cohorts studied, single nucleotide polymorphisms tagging seven common gene variants (haplotypes) were identified. Over half of the asthma patients carried three evolutionary closely related susceptibility haplotypes as opposed to approximately one third of the healthy controls. The risk effects of the gene variants varied from 1.4 to 2.5. In the disease-associated region, there was one protein-coding gene named GPRA (G Protein-coupled Receptor for Asthma susceptibility also known as NPSR1) which displayed extensive alternative splicing. Only the two isoforms with distinct intracellular tail sequences, GPRA-A and -B, encoded a full-length G protein-coupled receptor with seven transmembrane regions. Using various techniques, we showed that GPRA is expressed in multiple mucosal surfaces including epithelial cells throughout the respiratory tract. GPRA-A has additional expression in respiratory smooth muscle cells. However, in bronchial biopsies with unknown haplotypes, GPRA-B was upregulated in airways of all patient samples in contrast to the lack of expression in controls. Further support for GPRA as a common mediator of inflammation was obtained from a mouse model of ovalbumin-induced inflammation, where metacholine-induced airway hyperresponsiveness correlated with elevated GPRA mRNA levels in the lung and increased GPRA immunostaining in pulmonary macrophages. A novel GPRA agonist, Neuropeptide S (NPS), stimulated phagocytosis of Esterichia coli bacteria in a mouse macrophage cell line indicating a role for GPRA in the removal of inhaled allergens. The suggested GPRA functions prompted us to study, whether GPRA haplotypes associate with respiratory distress syndrome (RDS) and bronchopulmonary dysplasia (BPD) in infants sharing clinical symptoms with asthma. According to the results, near-term RDS and asthma may also share the same susceptibility and protective GPRA haplotypes. As in asthma, GPRA-B isoform expression was induced in bronchial smooth muscle cells in RDS and BPD suggesting a role for GPRA in bronchial hyperresponsiveness. In conclusion, the results of the present study suggest that the dysregulation of the GPRA/NPS pathway may not only be limited to the individuals carrying the risk variants of the gene but is also involved in the regulation of immune functions of asthma.

Positional cloning and pathway analysis of the asthma susceptibility gene, NPSR1

In the present study, we identified a novel asthma susceptibility gene, NPSR1 (neuropeptide S receptor 1) on chromosome 7p14.3 by the positional cloning strategy. An earlier significant linkage mapping result among Finnish Kainuu asthma families was confirmed in two independent cohorts: in asthma families from Quebec, Canada and in allergy families from North Karelia, Finland. The linkage region was narrowed down to a 133-kb segment by a hierarchial genotyping method. The observed 77-kb haplotype block showed 7 haplotypes and a similar risk and nonrisk pattern in all three populations studied. All seven haplotypes occur in all three populations at frequences > 2%. Significant elevated relative risks were detected for elevated total IgE (immunoglobulin E) or asthma. Risk effects of the gene variants varied from 1.4 to 2.5. NPSR1 belongs to the G protein-coupled receptor (GPCR) family with a topology of seven transmembrane domains. NPSR1 has 9 exons, with the two main transcripts, A and B, encoding proteins of 371 and 377 amino acids, respectively. We detected a low but ubiquitous expression level of NPSR1-B in various tissues and endogenous cell lines while NPSR1-A has a more restricted expression pattern. Both isoforms were expressed in the lung epithelium. We observed aberrant expression levels of NPSR1-B in smooth muscle in asthmatic bronchi as compared to healthy. In an experimental mouse model, the induced lung inflammation resulted in elevated Npsr1 levels. Furthermore, we demonstrated that the activation of NPSR1 with its endogenous agonist, neuropeptide S (NPS), resulted in a significant inhibition of the growth of NPSR1-A overexpressing stable cell lines (NPSR1-A cells). To determine which target genes were regulated by the NPS-NPSR1 pathway, NPSR1-A cells were stimulated with NPS, and differentially expressed genes were identified using the Affymetrix HGU133Plus2 GeneChip. A total of 104 genes were found significantly up-regulated and 42 down-regulated 6 h after NPS administration. The up-regulated genes included many neuronal genes and some putative susceptibility genes for respiratory disorders. By Gene Ontology enrichment analysis, the biological process terms, cell proliferation, morphogenesis and immune response were among the most altered. The expression of four up-regulated genes, matrix metallopeptidase 10 (MMP10), INHBA (activin A), interleukin 8 (IL8) and EPH receptor A2 (EPHA2), were verified and confirmed by quantitative reverse-transcriptase-PCR. In conclusion, we identified a novel asthma susceptibility gene, NPSR1, on chromosome 7p14.3. NPS-NPSR1 represents a novel pathway that regulates cell proliferation and immune responses, and thus may have functional relevance in the pathogenesis of asthma.

Simulative Risikoanalyse von Biomethanprojekten

Im Zuge der Novellierung der Gasnetzzugangsverordnung sowie des Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetzes entwickelte sich die Einspeisung von Biomethan in das Erdgasnetz als alternative Investitionsmöglichkeit der Erneuerbare-Energien-Branche. Als problematisch erweist sich dabei die Identifikation und Strukturierung einzelner Risikofaktoren zu einem Risikobereich, sowie die anschließende Quantifizierung dieser Risikofaktoren innerhalb eines Risikoportfolios. Darüber hinaus besteht die Schwierigkeit, diese Risikofaktoren in einem cashflowbasierten und den Ansprüchen der Investoren gewachsenem Risikomodell abzubilden. Zusätzlich müssen dabei Wechselwirkungen zwischen einzelnen Risikofaktoren berücksichtigt werden. Aus diesem Grund verfolgt die Dissertation das Ziel, die Risikosituation eines Biomethanprojektes anhand aggregierter und isolierter Risikosimulationen zu analysieren. Im Rahmen einer Diskussion werden Strategien und Instrumente zur Risikosteuerung angesprochen sowie die Implementierungsfähigkeit des Risikomodells in das Risikomanagementsystem von Investoren. Die Risikomaße zur Beschreibung der Risikoauswirkung betrachten die Shortfälle einer Verteilung. Dabei beziehen sich diese auf die geplanten Ausschüttungen sowie interne Verzinsungsansprüche der Investoren und die von Kreditinstituten geforderte minimale Schuldendienstdeckungsrate. Im Hinblick auf die Risikotragfähigkeit werden liquiditätsorientierte Kennzahlen hinzugezogen. Investoren interessieren sich vor dem Hintergrund einer gezielten Risikosteuerung hauptsächlich für den gefahrvollsten Risikobereich und innerhalb dessen für den Risikofaktor, der die größten Risikoauswirkungen hervorruft. Zudem spielt der Zeitpunkt maximaler Risikoauswirkung eine große Rolle. Als Kernaussage dieser Arbeit wird festgestellt, dass in den meisten Fällen die Aussagefähigkeit aggregierter Risikosimulationen durch Überlagerungseffekte negativ beeinträchtigt wird. Erst durch isoliert durchgeführte Risikoanalysen können diese Effekte eliminiert werden. Besonders auffällig gestalten sich dabei die Ergebnisse der isoliert durchgeführten Risikoanalyse des Risikobereichs »Politik«. So verursacht dieser im Vergleich zu den übrigen Risikobereichen, wie »Infrastruktur«, »Rohstoffe«, »Absatzmarkt« und »Finanzmarkt«, die geringsten Wahrscheinlichkeiten avisierte Planwerte der Investoren zu unterschreiten. Kommt es jedoch zu einer solchen Planwert-Unterschreitung, nehmen die damit verbundenen Risikoauswirkungen eine überraschende Position im Risikoranking der Investoren ein. Hinsichtlich der Aussagefähigkeit des Risikomodells wird deutlich, dass spezifische Risikosichtweisen der Investoren ausschlaggebend dafür sind, welche Strategien und Instrumente zur Risikosenkung umgesetzt werden. Darüber hinaus wird festgestellt, dass die Grenzen des Risikomodells in der Validität der Expertenmeinungen und dem Auffinden einer Optimallösung zu suchen sind.

Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) Territory Placement Near Seismic Lines is Influenced by Forest Regeneration and Conspecific Density

The boreal forest of western Canada is being dissected by seismic lines used for oil and gas exploration. The vast amount of edge being created is leading to concerns that core habitat will be reduced for forest interior species for extended periods of time. The Ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla) is a boreal songbird known to be sensitive to newly created seismic lines because it does not include newly cut lines within its territory. We examined multiple hypotheses to explain potential mechanisms causing this behavior by mapping Ovenbird territories near lines with varying states of vegetation regeneration. The best model to explain line exclusion behavior included the number of neighboring conspecifics, the amount of bare ground, leaf-litter depth, and canopy closure. Ovenbirds exclude recently cut seismic lines from their territories because of lack of protective cover (lower tree and shrub cover) and because of reduced food resources due to large areas of bare ground. Food reduction and perceived predation risk effects seem to be mitigated once leaf litter (depth and extent of cover) and woody vegetation cover are restored to forest interior levels. However, as conspecific density increases, lines are more likely to be used as landmarks to demarcate territorial boundaries, even when woody vegetation cover and leaf litter are restored. This behavior can reduce territory density near seismic lines by changing the spatial distribution of territories. Landmark effects are longer lasting than the effects from reduced food or perceived predation risk because canopy height and tree density take >40 years to recover to forest interior levels. Mitigation of seismic line impacts on Ovenbirds should focus on restoring forest cover as quickly as possible after line cutting.

Patterns and ecosystem consequences of shark declines in the ocean

Whereas many land predators disappeared before their ecological roles were studied, the decline of marine apex predators is still unfolding. Large sharks in particular have experienced rapid declines over the last decades. In this study, we review the documented changes in exploited elasmobranch communities in coastal, demersal, and pelagic habitats, and synthesize the effects of sharks on their prey and wider communities. We show that the high natural diversity and abundance of sharks is vulnerable to even light fishing pressure. The decline of large predatory sharks reduces natural mortality in a range of prey, contributing to changes in abundance, distribution, and behaviour of small elasmobranchs, marine mammals, and sea turtles that have few other predators. Through direct predation and behavioural modifications, top-down effects of sharks have led to cascading changes in some coastal ecosystems. In demersal and pelagic communities, there is increasing evidence of mesopredator release, but cascading effects are more hypothetical. Here, fishing pressure on mesopredators may mask or even reverse some ecosystem effects. In conclusion, large sharks can exert strong top-down forces with the potential to shape marine communities over large spatial and temporal scales. Yet more empirical evidence is needed to test the generality of these effects throughout the ocean.

Using Stable Isotopes to Investigate Trophic Interactions of Bottlenose Dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the Coastal Everglades

Top predators are best known for their ability to affect their communities through inflicting mortality on prey and inducing behavioral modifications (e.g. risk effects). Recent scientific evidence suggests that predators may have additional roles in bottom-up processes such as transporting materials within and across habitat boundaries. The Florida Coastal Everglades (FCE) is an “upside-down” oligotrophic estuary where productivity decreases from the mouth of the estuary to freshwater marshes. Research in the FCE suggest that predators can act as mobile links between disparate habitats and can potentially affect nutrient and biogeochemical dynamics through localized behaviors (e.g. American alligators and juvenile bull sharks). To date, little is known about bottlenose dolphins (Tursiops truncatus) in the FCE beyond broad-scale patterns of abundance. Because they are highly mobile mammals commonly found in coastal waters, bottlenose dolphins are an interesting case study for investigating the influence of ecology on the evolution of local adaptations. Within this influence lies the potential for investigation of the related roles those adaptations play in coastal ecosystems due to their high metabolic rates, movement capabilities, and tendency to display specialized foraging behaviors. Stable isotope analysis of biopsy samples were used to investigate habitat use, trophic interactions, and patterns of individual specialization in bottlenose dolphins to gain functional insights into ecosystem dynamics. δ13 C isotopic values are used to differentiate the relative importance of a food web to the diet of an organism, while δ15 N values are used to evaluate the relative trophic position of an organism. Dolphin δ13 C isotopic values seem to suggest that dolphins are foraging within single ecosystems and may not be moving nutrients across ecosystem boundaries while their δ15 N isotopic values appear to be of a top predator, at a similar level to bull sharks and alligators in FCE. Further research is necessary to provide vital insight into the large predators’ role in affecting the evolution of local adaptations. Conducting this research should also provide information for predicting how future changes occurring due to restoration dynamics (see CERP: evergladesplan.org) and climate change will affect the ecological roles of these animals.