Spatiotemporal clustering analysis and risk assessments of human cutaneous anthrax in China, 2005–2012

Objective To investigate the epidemic characteristics of human cutaneous anthrax (CA) in China, detect the spatiotemporal clusters at the county level for preemptive public health interventions, and evaluate the differences in the epidemiological characteristics within and outside clusters. Methods CA cases reported during 2005–2012 from the national surveillance system were evaluated at the county level using space-time scan statistic. Comparative analysis of the epidemic characteristics within and outside identified clusters was performed using using the χ2 test or Kruskal-Wallis test. Results The group of 30–39 years had the highest incidence of CA, and the fatality rate increased with age, with persons ≥70 years showing a fatality rate of 4.04%. Seasonality analysis showed that most of CA cases occurred between May/June and September/October of each year. The primary spatiotemporal cluster contained 19 counties from June 2006 to May 2010, and it was mainly located straddling the borders of Sichuan, Gansu, and Qinghai provinces. In these high-risk areas, CA cases were predominantly found among younger, local, males, shepherds, who were living on agriculture and stockbreeding and characterized with high morbidity, low mortality and a shorter period from illness onset to diagnosis. Conclusion CA was geographically and persistently clustered in the Southwestern China during 2005–2012, with notable differences in the epidemic characteristics within and outside spatiotemporal clusters; this demonstrates the necessity for CA interventions such as enhanced surveillance, health education, mandatory and standard decontamination or disinfection procedures to be geographically targeted to the areas identified in this study.

Anthelmintic drug residues in beef: UPLC-MS/MS method validation, European retail beef survey, and associated exposure and risk assessments

Anthelmintic drugs are widely used to control parasitic infections in cattle. The ProSafeBeef project addressed the need for data on the exposure of European consumers of beef to potentially harmful drug residues. A novel analytical method based on matrix solid-phase dispersive extraction and ultra-performance liquid chromatography-tandem mass spectrometry was validated for 37 anthelmintic drugs and metabolites in muscle (assay decision limits, CCa, = 0.15-10.2 µg kg -1). Seven European countries (France, Spain, Slovenia, Ireland, Italy, Belgium and Portugal) participated in a survey of retail beef purchased in local shops. Of 1061 beef samples analysed, 26 (2.45%) contained detectable residues of anthelmintic drugs (0.2-171 µg kg -1), none above its European Union maximum residue limit (MRL) or action level. Residues detected included closantel, levamisole, doramectin, eprinomectin, moxidectin, ivermectin, albendazole and rafoxanide. In a risk assessment applied to mean residue concentrations across all samples, observed residues accounted for less than 0.1% of the MRL for each compound. An exposure assessment based on the consumption of meat at the 99th percentile of consumption of adults in 14 European countries demonstrated that beef accounted for less than 0.02% of the acceptable daily intake for each compound in each country. This study is the first of its kind to apply such a risk-based approach to an extensive multi-residue survey of veterinary drug residues in food. It has demonstrated that the risk of exposure of the European consumer to anthelmintic drug residues in beef is negligible, indicating that regulation and monitoring is having the desired effect of limiting residues to non-hazardous concentrations. © 2012 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

Combining environmental and medical datasets to explore potential associations between environmental factors and health: Policy implications for human health risk assessments

This review paper discusses the use of Tellus and Tellus Border soil and stream geochemistry data to investigate the relationship between medical data and naturally occurring background levels of potentially toxic elements (PTEs) such as heavy metals in soils and water. The research hypothesis is that long-term low level oral exposure of PTEs via soil and water may result in cumulative exposures that may act as risk factors for progressive diseases including cancer and chronic kidney disease. A number of public policy implications for regional human health risk assessments, public health policy and education are also explored alongside the argument for better integration of multiple data sets to enhance ongoing medical and social research. This work presents a partnership between the School of Geography, Archaeology and Palaeoecology, Northern Ireland Cancer Registry, Queen’s University Belfast, and the nephrology (kidney medicine) research group.

Nurses' critical event risk assessments : a judgement analysis

Aims. To explore and explain nurses' use of readily available clinical information when deciding whether a patient is at risk of a critical event.

Background. Half of inpatients who suffer a cardiac arrest have documented but unacted upon clinical signs of deterioration in the 24 hours prior to the event. Nurses appear to be both misinterpreting and mismanaging the nursing-knowledge 'basics' such as heart rate, respiratory rate and oxygenation. Whilst many medical interventions originate from nurses, up to 26% of nurses' responses to abnormal signs result in delays of between one and three hours.

Methods. A double system judgement analysis using Brunswik's lens model of cognition was undertaken with 245 Dutch, UK, Canadian and Australian acute care nurses. Nurses were asked to judge the likelihood of a critical event, 'at-risk' status, and whether they would intervene in response to 50 computer-presented clinical scenarios in which data on heart rate, systolic blood pressure, urine output, oxygen saturation, conscious level and oxygenation support were varied. Nurses were also presented with a protocol recommendation and also placed under time pressure for some of the scenarios. The ecological criterion was the predicted level of risk from the Modified Early Warning Score assessments of 232 UK acute care inpatients.

Results. Despite receiving identical information, nurses varied considerably in their risk assessments. The differences can be partly explained by variability in weightings given to information. Time and protocol recommendations were given more weighting than clinical information for key dichotomous choices such as classifying a patient as 'at risk' and deciding to intervene. Nurses' weighting of cues did not mirror the same information's contribution to risk in real patients. Nurses synthesized information in non-linear ways that contributed little to decisional accuracy. The low-moderate achievement (Ra) statistics suggests that nurses' assessments of risk were largely inaccurate; these assessments were applied consistently among 'patients' (scenarios). Critical care experience was statistically associated with estimates of risk, but not with the decision to intervene.

Conclusion. Nurses overestimated the risk and the need to intervene in simulated paper patients at risk of a critical event. This average response masked considerable variation in risk predictions, the need for action and the weighting afforded to the information they had available to them. Nurses did not make use of the linear reasoning required for accurate risk predictions in this task. They also failed to employ any unique knowledge that could be shown to make them more accurate. The influence of time pressure and protocol recommendations depended on the kind of judgement faced suggesting then that knowing more about the types of decisions nurses face may influence information use.

Relevance to clinical practice. Practice developers and educators need to pay attention to the quality of nurses' clinical experience as well as the quantity when developing judgement expertise in nurses. Intuitive unaided decision making in the assessment of risk may not be as accurate as supported decision making. Practice developers and educators should consider teaching nurses normative rules for revising probabilities (even subjective ones) such as Bayes' rule for diagnostic or assessment judgements and also that linear ways of thinking, in which decision support may help, may be useful for many choices that nurses face. Nursing needs to separate the rhetoric of 'holism' and 'expertise' from the science of predictive validity, accuracy and competence in judgement and decision making.

Recent research (N=9,305) underscores the importance of using age-stratified actuarial tables in sex offender risk assessments

A useful understanding of the relationship between age, actuarial scores, and sexual recidivism can be obtained by comparing the entries in equivalent cells from “agestratified” actuarial tables. This article reports the compilation of the first multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates, referred to as the “multisample age-stratified table of sexual recidivism rates (MATS-1),” from recent research on Static-99 and another actuarial known as the Automated Sexual Recidivism Scale. The MATS-1 validates the “age invariance effect” that the risk of sexual recidivism declines with advancing age and shows that age-restricted tables underestimate risk for younger offenders and overestimate risk for older offenders. Based on data from more than 9,000 sex offenders, our conclusion is that evaluators should report recidivism estimates from age-stratified tables when they are assessing sexual recidivism risk, particularly when evaluating the aging sex offender.

Towards a knowledge perspective in information security risk assessments - an illustrative case study

Many methodologies exist to assess the security risks associated with unauthorized leakage, modification and interruption of information for a given organisation. We argue that the traditional orientation of these methodologies, towards the identification and assessment of technical information assets, obscures key risks associated with the cultivation and deployment of organisational knowledge. Our argument is developed through an illustrative case study in which a well-documented methodology is applied to a complex data back-up process. This process is seen to depend, in subtle and often informal ways, on knowledge to sustain operational complexity, handle exceptions and make frequent interventions. Although typical information security methodologies identify people as critical assets, we suggest a new approach might draw on more detailed accounts of individual knowledge, collective knowledge, and their relationship to organisational processes. Drawing on the knowledge management literature, we suggest mechanisms to incorporate these knowledge-based considerations into the scope of information security risk methodologies.

Incorporating a knowledge perspective into security risk assessments

Purpose – Many methodologies exist to assess the security risks associated with unauthorized leakage, modification and interruption of information used by organisations. This paper argues that these methodologies have a traditional orientation towards the identification and assessment of technical information assets. This obscures key risks associated with the cultivation and deployment of organisational knowledge. The purpose of this paper is to explore how security risk assessment methods can more effectively identify and treat the knowledge associated with business processes.

Design/methodology/approach – The argument was developed through an illustrative case study in which a well-documented traditional methodology is applied to a complex data backup process. Follow-up interviews were conducted with the organisation’s security managers to explore the results of the assessment and the nature of knowledge “assets” within a business process.

Findings – It was discovered that the backup process depended, in subtle and often informal ways, on tacit knowledge to sustain operational complexity, handle exceptions and make frequent interventions. Although typical information security methodologies identify people as critical assets, this study suggests a new approach might draw on more detailed accounts of individual knowledge, collective knowledge and their relationship to organisational processes.

Originality/value – Drawing on the knowledge management literature, the paper suggests mechanisms to incorporate these knowledge-based considerations into the scope of information security risk methodologies. A knowledge protection model is presented as a result of this research. This model outlines ways in which organisations can effectively identify and treat risks around process knowledge critical to the business.