Environnement dissuasif, risques et stratégies délinquantes

L‟utilité de la théorie de la dissuasion est régulièrement remise en question pour expliquer la relation entre les peines et la criminalité puisque les propriétés objectives de la peine ne semblent pas affecter les taux de criminalité, les perceptions que s‟en font les individus et la récidive des délinquants. Trois limites conceptuelles des auteurs qui remettent en question la dissuasion sont soulevées. Premièrement, les unités spatiales utilisées sont des territoires sur lesquels plusieurs corps policiers sont en fonction. Il y a donc peu de chances que tous les citoyens présents soient exposés au même message pénal. Deuxièmement, les chercheurs ont mesuré le risque objectif d‟être arrêté à l‟aide d‟un ratio entre le nombre d‟arrestations et le nombre de crimes rapportés. Cette conceptualisation est problématique puisque les résultats d‟autres études suggèrent que les citoyens ont peu de connaissances des propriétés objectives et qu‟il serait, ainsi, intéressant de se référer aux stimuli dissuasifs pour conceptualiser la notion de risques. Troisièmement, pour plusieurs chercheurs, la délinquance est considérée comme une activité pour laquelle les délits impunis découlent du hasard. Pourtant, les délinquants utilisent fréquemment des stratégies pour éviter les autorités policières. Ils sont donc proactifs dans leur impunité. De ces limites découlent quatre propositions : 1) afin de détecter les réels effets des propriétés de la peine sur la criminalité, les territoires utilisés dans les études doivent représenter des juridictions sur lesquelles un seul corps policier opère; 2) afin de détecter les réels effets des propriétés de la peine sur la criminalité, les études doivent être effectuées avec des données provenant d‟une juridiction dans laquelle les activités de répression sont augmentées significativement par rapport à leur seuil antérieur et maintenue sur une période de temps suffisamment longue; 3) les stimuli dissuasifs observés doivent être considérés comme des expériences vicariantes ; 4) l‟impunité doit être définie comme étant une expérience recherchée par les délinquants. Deux études ont été réalisées dans le cadre de cette thèse. D‟abord, une étude a été réalisée à l‟aide de données issues des rapports policiers de collisions et des constats d‟infraction rendus. Les résultats montrent que l‟augmentation de la répression policière ii sur le territoire du Service de Police de la Ville de Montréal a fait diminuer le nombre de collisions. Au même moment, les collisions sont demeurées stables sur le territoire desservis par le Service de police de la Ville de Québec. Dans un deuxième temps, une étude perceptuelle a été réalisée avec un échantillon d‟étudiants universitaires. Les résultats démontrent des effets mitigés des stimuli dissuasifs sur les perceptions que se font les individus de leurs risques d‟être arrêté et sur leurs comportements délinquants. Chez les moins délinquants, les stimuli dissuasifs font augmenter la perception que les délinquants se font de leurs risques. Par contre, les plus motivés à commettre des délits de la route développent des stratégies en réaction aux opérations policières plutôt que d‟en craindre les représailles. Ces tactiques d‟évitement n‟assurent pas une impunité totale, ni une perception moins élevée des risques de recevoir une contravention, mais elles retardent le moment où le délinquant sera confronté à la punition.

Efficacia della formazione alla salute e sicurezza sul lavoro: fattori di successo e criticità

Background: sulla base delle evidenze emerse dalle rassegne sistematiche in materia (Johnstone, 1994; Cohen et al.,1998; Robson et al., 2012; Burke et al., 2006; Ricci et al., 2015) si è ipotizzato che la formazione alla salute e sicurezza sul lavoro sia maggiormente efficace quando non è presentata come obbligatoria e venga articolata su più livelli di apprendimento, attraverso metodologie adeguate per ogni livello, con docenti che abbiano caratteristiche corrispondenti allo specifico obiettivo di apprendimento e la cui durata sia parametrata all’obiettivo stesso. Obiettivo di questa ricerca è valutare se esista e quanto sia intensa la relazione causale tra la formazione alla sicurezza sul lavoro e i suoi effetti sul miglioramento delle conoscenze, degli atteggiamenti, dei comportamenti, degli esiti per la salute, del clima di sicurezza aziendale, del controllo comportamentale percepito dai lavoratori, delle condizioni operative e procedure interne, oltre l’eventuale effetto di moderazione determinato da caratteristiche socio-demografiche dei partecipanti e dal gradimento della formazione. Metodo: la variabile indipendente è costituita dell’intervento formativo erogato, articolato in tre condizioni: formazione obbligatoria, formazione non obbligatoria, gruppo di controllo: sono stati posti a confronto due interventi di pari durata (16 settimane, per 10h complessive), realizzati con identiche modalità (step1 audio-visivo; step2 affiancamento su lavoro da parte del preposto; step3 discussione di auto-casi), ma differenziati rispetto all’essere presentati uno come formazione obbligatoria, l’altro come non obbligatoria. I due gruppi sono anche stati confrontati con un gruppo di controllo per il quale la formazione è prevista successivamente. I partecipanti sono stati assegnati in modo casuale al gruppo con obbligo formativo, senza obbligo formativo, di controllo. Sono stati presi come indicatori (variabili dipendenti) per valutare l’effetto della formazione: I livello – conoscenze: riconoscimento o produzione di un maggior numero di risposte corrette. II livello – atteggiamenti e credenze: maggiore propensione a mettere in atto comportamenti auto ed etero protettivi. III livello – comportamenti: comportamenti osservati più adeguati per la tutela della salute propria e altrui. IV livello – salute: maggior grado di benessere bio-psico-sociale auto-riferito. Le misure di esito consistono nella variazione tra la rilevazione iniziale e ogni rilevazione successiva, sulla base delle diverse misure registrate per ognuno dei quattro livelli dell’intervento formativo. Lo stesso confronto del tempo è stato realizzato per le misure del clima di sicurezza aziendale, del controllo comportamentale percepito dai lavoratori, delle condizioni operative e procedure interne, oltre l’eventuale effetto di moderazione determinato da caratteristiche socio-demografiche dei partecipanti e dal gradimento della formazione, quest’ultimo misurato solo immediatamente al termine dell’intervento. Risultati: le condizioni di intervento non differiscono in termini di efficacia, la formazione determina infatti gli stessi risultati per i partecipanti del gruppo obbligo formativo e di quello non obbligo, con una significativa differenza post-intervento rispetto al gruppo di controllo. La formazione ha un effetto forte nel miglioramento delle conoscenze che solo parzialmente decade nel tempo, ma comunque mantenendo un livello maggiore rispetto ai valori iniziali. In relazione al miglioramento di atteggiamenti e comportamenti sicuri nel lavoro al Videoterminale, l’effetto della formazione è modesto: per gli atteggiamenti si registra solo un miglioramento verso l’applicazione delle procedure come utili realmente e non come mero adempimento, ma tale effetto decade entro quattro mesi riportando i partecipanti su valori iniziali; i comportamenti invece migliorano nel tempo, ma con deboli differenze tra partecipanti alla formazione e gruppo di controllo, tuttavia tale miglioramento non decade in seguito. Non si registrano invece effetti della formazione nella direzione attesa in termini di esiti per la salute, per il miglioramento del clima di sicurezza e come maggior controllo comportamentale percepito, non risultano nemmeno dati evidenti di moderazione degli effetti dovuti a caratteristiche socio-demografiche dei partecipanti. Inoltre emerge che il gradimento per la formazione è correlato con migliori atteggiamenti (strumento audio-visivo), il miglioramento del clima di sicurezza e un maggior controllo comportamentale percepito (studio di auto-casi), ovvero gli step che hanno visto l’intervento di formatori qualificati. Infine, la formazione ha determinato migliori condizioni operative e l’adeguamento delle procedure interne. Conclusioni: la presente ricerca ci consente di affermare che la formazione erogata è stata efficace, oltre che molto gradita dai partecipanti, in particolare quando il formatore è qualificato per questa attività (step1 e 3). L’apprendimento prodotto è tanto più stabile nel tempo quanto più i contenuti sono in stretta relazione con l’esperienza lavorativa quotidiana dei partecipanti, mentre negli altri casi il decremento degli effetti è alquanto rapido, di conseguenza ribadiamo la necessità di erogare la formazione con continuità nel tempo. E’ risultato comunque modesto l’effetto della formazione per migliorare gli atteggiamenti e i comportamenti nel lavoro al VDT, ma, al di là di alcuni limiti metodologici, sono obiettivi ambiziosi che richiedono più tempo di quanto abbiamo potuto disporre in questa occasione e il cui conseguimento risente molto delle prassi reali adottate nel contesto lavorativo dopo il termine della formazione. Le evidenze finora prodotte non hanno poi chiarito in modo definitivo se attraverso la formazione si possano determinare effetti significativi nel miglioramento di esiti per la salute, anche eventualmente attraverso interventi di supporto individuale. Inoltre l’assenza di differenze significative negli effetti tra i partecipanti assegnati alla condizione di obbligo e quelli di non obbligo, eccezion fatta in direzione opposta alle attese per la misura del danno da lavoro, suggeriscono che nell’erogare la formazione, occorre sottolineare in misura molto rilevante l’importanza dell’intervento che viene realizzato, anche qualora esistesse una prescrizione normativa cogente. Infine, la ricerca ci ha fornito anche indicazioni metodologiche e misure valide che invitano ad estendere questa formazione, e la sua valutazione di efficacia, a diversi comparti economici e svariate mansioni. Nel fare questo è possibile fare riferimento, e testare nuovamente, un modello che indica la corretta percezione del rischio (conoscenza) come fattore necessario, ma non sufficiente per ottenere, con la mediazione di atteggiamenti favorevoli allo specifico comportamento, azioni sicure, attraverso le quali si rinforza l’atteggiamento e migliorano le conoscenze. La formazione, per raggiungere i propri obiettivi, deve tuttavia agire anche sui meccanismi di conformismo sociale favorevoli alla safety, questi originano da conoscenze e azioni sicure e reciprocamente le rinforzano.

Students’ perception of privacy risks in using social networking sites for learning: a study of Uganda Christian University

Although social networking sites (SNSs) present a great deal of opportunities to support learning, the privacy risk is perceived by learners as a friction point that affects their full use for learning. Privacy risks in SNSs can be divided into risks that are posed by the SNS provider itself and risks that result from user’s social interactions. Using an online survey questionnaire, this study explored the students’ perception of the benefits in using social networking sites for learning purposes and their perceived privacy risks. A sample of 214 students from Uganda Christian University in Africa was studied. The results show that although 88 % of participants indicated the usefulness of SNSs for learning, they are also aware of the risks associated with these sites. Most of the participants are concerned with privacy risks such as identity theft, cyber bullying, and impersonation that might influence their online learning participation in SNSs.

Suggestion of an inverse relationship between perception of occupational risks and work-related injuries

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Hierarchical modeling of perceived collision risks in port fairways

Navigational collisions are one of the major safety concerns in many seaports. Despite the extent of recent works done on port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in port fairways. This paper uses a hierarchical ordered probit model to investigate associations between perceived risks and the geometric and traffic characteristics of fairways and the pilot attributes. Perceived risk data, collected through a risk perception survey conducted among the Singapore port pilots, are used to calibrate the model. Intra-class correlation coefficient justifies use of the hierarchical model in comparison with an ordinary model. Results show higher perceived risks in fairways attached to anchorages, and in those featuring sharper bends and higher traffic operating speeds. Lesser risks are perceived in fairways attached to shoreline and confined waters, and in those with one-way traffic, traffic separation scheme, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Risk is also found to be perceived higher in night.

Perceived collision risks in anchorages : a hierarchical ordered probit analysis

Navigational collisions are a major safety concern in many seaports. Despite the recent advances in port navigational safety research, little is known about harbor pilot’s perception of collision risks in anchorages. This study attempts to model such risks by employing a hierarchical ordered probit model, which is calibrated by using data collected through a risk perception survey conducted on Singapore port pilots. The hierarchical model is found to be useful to account for correlations in risks perceived by individual pilots. Results show higher perceived risks in anchorages attached to intersection, local and international fairway; becoming more critical at night. Lesser risks are perceived in anchorages featuring shoreline in boundary, higher water depth, lower density of stationary ships, cardinal marks and isolated danger marks. Pilotage experience shows a negative effect on perceived risks. This study indicates that hierarchical modeling would be useful for treating correlations in navigational safety data.

Comparison of Motorists’ and Cyclists’ perception of bicycle safety

Increasing the modal share of public transit systems has become paramount in aiding the reduction on the excessive reliance of personal motor vehicles. More so the need to increase the share of active modes of transport such as the use of bicycles, therefore there is an ever increasing need to use bicycles both on shared pedestrian paths and on-road cycling. The risk to cyclist, or consequently the perception of the risk from both cyclists and motorists alike, is an important factor to increase the use of this transport mode. This paper investigates perception of bicycle safety by conducting a survey and analysing the survey data to understand how participants with different backgrounds perceive the risks of cycling for transport. Contributing factors to people’s perception of bicycle safety were identified and compared across different road user groups, based upon which recommendations were made on how to improve bicycle safety.

Prior storm experience moderates water surge perception and risk

Background How accurately do people perceive extreme water speeds and how does their perception affect perceived risk? Prior research has focused on the characteristics of moving water that can reduce human stability or balance. The current research presents the first experiment on people's perceptions of risk and moving water at different speeds and depths. Methods Using a randomized within-person 2 (water depth: 0.45, 0.90 m) ×3 (water speed: 0.4, 0.8, 1.2 m/s) experiment, we immersed 76 people in moving water and asked them to estimate water speed and the risk they felt. Results Multilevel modeling showed that people increasingly overestimated water speeds as actual water speeds increased or as water depth increased. Water speed perceptions mediated the direct positive relationship between actual water speeds and perceptions of risk; the faster the moving water, the greater the perceived risk. Participants' prior experience with rip currents and tropical cyclones moderated the strength of the actual–perceived water speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced no rip currents or fewer storms. Conclusions These findings provide a clearer understanding of water speed and risk perception, which may help communicate the risks associated with anticipated floods and tropical cyclones.

Wind speed perception and risk

Background How accurately do people perceive extreme wind speeds and how does that perception affect the perceived risk? Prior research on human–wind interaction has focused on comfort levels in urban settings or knock-down thresholds. No systematic experimental research has attempted to assess people's ability to estimate extreme wind speeds and perceptions of their associated risks. Method We exposed 76 people to 10, 20, 30, 40, 50, and 60 mph (4.5, 8.9, 13.4, 17.9, 22.3, and 26.8 m/s) winds in randomized orders and asked them to estimate wind speed and the corresponding risk they felt. Results Multilevel modeling showed that people were accurate at lower wind speeds but overestimated wind speeds at higher levels. Wind speed perceptions mediated the direct relationship between actual wind speeds and perceptions of risk (i.e., the greater the perceived wind speed, the greater the perceived risk). The number of tropical cyclones people had experienced moderated the strength of the actual–perceived wind speed relationship; consequently, mediation was stronger for people who had experienced fewer storms. Conclusion These findings provide a clearer understanding of wind and risk perception, which can aid development of public policy solutions toward communicating the severity and risks associated with natural disasters.

Risk perception and the public acceptance of drones

Unmanned aircraft, or drones, are a rapidly emerging sector of the aviation industry. There has been limited substantive research, however, into the public perception and acceptance of drones. This paper presents the results from two surveys of the Australian public designed to investigate (a) whether the public perceive drones to be riskier than existing manned aviation, (b) whether the terminology used to describe the technology influences public perception, and (c) what the broader concerns are that may influence public acceptance of the technology. We find that the Australian public currently hold a relatively neutral attitude towards drones. Respondents did not consider the technology to be overly unsafe, risky, beneficial, or threatening. Drones are largely viewed as being of comparable risk to that of existing manned aviation. Further, terminology had a minimal effect on the perception of the risks or acceptability of the technology. The neutral response is likely due to a lack of knowledge about the technology, which was also identified as the most prevalent public concern as opposed to the risks associated with its use. Privacy, military use and misuse (e.g., terrorism) were also significant public concerns. The results suggest that society is yet to form an opinion of drones. As public knowledge increases, the current position is likely to change. Industry communication and media coverage will likely influence the ultimate position adopted by the public, which can be difficult to change once established.

The influence of financial risk tolerance and risk perception on individual investment decision-making in a financial advice context

The aim of this thesis is to examine how risk tolerance and risk perception, two important but often misunderstood constructs, jointly influence client investment decisions in a financial advice context. By distinguishing the roles of these two risk constructs in client decision-making, in this thesis a new direction in studying financial/investment risks is provided while practice and regulation in the financial services industry is potentially informed. Based on the literature relating to risks and individual decision-making, a theoretical framework is developed and relevant hypotheses are tested in two studies with financial adviser clients in Australia. Results reveal that financial risk tolerance influences asset allocation both directly and indirectly through risk perception. The intervening role of risk perception suggests that risk tolerance affects how clients perceive the riskiness of an investment product which influences client decision-making.

Precarious Pregnancies : Alcohol, drugs and the regulation of risks

Since the 1970s alcohol and drug use by pregnant women has become a target of political, professional and personal concern. The present study focuses on prenatal substance use and the regulation of risks by examining different kinds of societal responses to prenatal alcohol and drug use. The study analyses face-to-face encounters between professionals and service users at a specialised maternity clinic for pregnant women with substance abuse problems, medical and political discourses on the compulsory treatment of pregnant women as a means of FAS prevention and official recommendations on alcohol intake during pregnancy. Moreover, the study addresses the women s perspective by asking how women who have used illicit drugs during pregnancy perceive and rank the dangers linked to drug use. The study consists of five empirical sub-studies and a summary article. Sub-study I was written in collaboration with Dorte Hecksher and Sub-study IV with Riikka Perälä. Theoretically the study builds on the one hand, on the socio-cultural approach to the selection and perception of risks and on the other on governmentality studies which focus on the use of power in contemporary Western societies. The study is based on an ethnographic approach and makes use of the principles of multi-sited ethnography. The empirical sub-studies are based on three different types of qualitative data: ethnographic field notes from a maternity clinic from a period of 7 months, documentary material (medical journals, political documents, health education materials, government reports) and 3) interviews from maternity clinics with clients and members of staff. The study demonstrates that the logic of the regulation of prenatal alcohol use in Finland is characterised by the rise of the foetus , a process in which the urgency of protecting the foetus has gradually gained a more prominent role in the discourses on alcohol-related foetal damage. An increasing unwillingness to accept any kinds of risks when foetal health is at stake is manifested in the public debate on the compulsory treatment of pregnant women with alcohol problems and in the health authorities decision to advise pregnant women to refrain from alcohol use during pregnancy (Sub-studies I and II). Secondly, the study suggests that maternity care professionals have an ambivalent role in their mundane encounters with their pregnant clients: on the one hand professionals focus on the well-being of the foetus, but on the other, they need to take into account the women s needs and agency. The professionals daily encounters with their clients are thus characterised by hybridisation: the simultaneous use of technologies of domination and technologies of agency (Sub-studies III and IV). Finally, the study draws attention to the women s understanding of the risks of illicit drug during pregnancy, and shows that the women s understanding of risk differs from the bio-medical view. The study suggests that when drug-using pregnant women seek professional help they can feel that their moral worth is threatened by professionals negative attitudes which can make service-use challenging.

Red meat consumption: An overview of the risks and benefits

Red meat is long established as an important dietary source of protein and essential nutrients including iron, zinc and vitamin B12, yet recent reports that its consumption may increase the risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) and colon cancer have led to a negative perception of the role of red meat in health. The aim of this paper is to review existing literature for both the risks and benefits of red meat consumption, focusing on case-control and prospective studies. Despite many studies reporting an association between red meat and the risk of CVD and colon cancer, several methodological limitations and inconsistencies were identified which may impact on the validity of their findings. Overall, there is no strong evidence to support the recent conclusion from the World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF) report that red meat has a convincing role to play in colon cancer. A substantial amount of evidence supports the role of lean red meat as a positive moderator of lipid profiles with recent Studies identifying it as a dietary source of the anti-inflammatory long chain (LC) n-3 PUFAs and conjugated linoleic acid (CIA). In conclusion. moderate consumption of lean red meat as part of a balanced diet is unlikely to increase risk for CVD or colon cancer, but may positively influence nutrient intakes and fatty acid profiles, thereby impacting positively on long-term health. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved