Decision support system architecture for consultant selection

Decision Support System (DSS) has played a significant role in construction project management. This has been proven that a lot of DSS systems have been implemented throughout the whole construction project life cycle. However, most research only concentrated in model development and left few fundamental aspects in Information System development. As a result, the output of researches are complicated to be adopted by lay person particularly those whom come from a non-technical background. Hence, a DSS should hide the abstraction and complexity of DSS models by providing a more useful system which incorporated user oriented system. To demonstrate a desirable architecture of DSS particularly in public sector planning, we aim to propose a generic DSS framework for consultant selection. It will focus on the engagement of engineering consultant for irrigation and drainage infrastructure. The DSS framework comprise from operational decision to strategic decision level. The expected result of the research will provide a robust framework of DSS for consultant selection. In addition, the paper also discussed other issues that related to the existing DSS framework by integrating enabling technologies from computing. This paper is based on the preliminary case study conducted via literature review and archival documents at Department of Irrigation and Drainage (DID) Malaysia. The paper will directly affect to the enhancement of consultant pre-qualification assessment and selection tools. By the introduction of DSS in this area, the selection process will be more efficient in time, intuitively aided qualitative judgment, and transparent decision through aggregation of decision among stakeholders.

An initial technology roadmap for home automation : home and personal life management

Home Automation (HA) has emerged as a prominent ¯eld for researchers and in- vestors confronting the challenge of penetrating the average home user market with products and services emerging from technology based vision. In spite of many technology contri- butions, there is a latent demand for a®ordable and pragmatic assistive technologies for pro-active handling of complex lifestyle related problems faced by home users. This study has pioneered to develop an Initial Technology Roadmap for HA (ITRHA) that formulates a need based vision of 10-15 years, identifying market, product and technology investment opportunities, focusing on those aspects of HA contributing to e±cient management of home and personal life. The concept of Family Life Cycle is developed to understand the temporal needs of family. In order to formally describe a coherent set of family processes, their relationships, and interaction with external elements, a reference model named Fam- ily System is established that identi¯es External Entities, 7 major Family Processes, and 7 subsystems-Finance, Meals, Health, Education, Career, Housing, and Socialisation. Anal- ysis of these subsystems reveals Soft, Hard and Hybrid processes. Rectifying the lack of formal methods for eliciting future user requirements and reassessing evolving market needs, this study has developed a novel method called Requirement Elicitation of Future Users by Systems Scenario (REFUSS), integrating process modelling, and scenario technique within the framework of roadmapping. The REFUSS is used to systematically derive process au- tomation needs relating the process knowledge to future user characteristics identi¯ed from scenarios created to visualise di®erent futures with richly detailed information on lifestyle trends thus enabling learning about the future requirements. Revealing an addressable market size estimate of billions of dollars per annum this research has developed innovative ideas on software based products including Document Management Systems facilitating automated collection, easy retrieval of all documents, In- formation Management System automating information services and Ubiquitous Intelligent System empowering the highly mobile home users with ambient intelligence. Other product ideas include robotic devices of versatile Kitchen Hand and Cleaner Arm that can be time saving. Materialisation of these products require technology investment initiating further research in areas of data extraction, and information integration as well as manipulation and perception, sensor actuator system, tactile sensing, odour detection, and robotic controller. This study recommends new policies on electronic data delivery from service providers as well as new standards on XML based document structure and format.

Studies on coordination of systems development process

This thesis examines coordination of systems development process in a contemporary software producing organization. The thesis consists of a series of empirical studies in which the actions, conceptions and artifacts of practitioners are analyzed using a theory-building case study research approach. The three phases of the thesis provide empirical observations on different aspects of systemsdevelopment. In the first phase is examined the role of architecture in coordination and cost estimation in multi-site environment. The second phase involves two studies on the evolving requirement understanding process and how to measure this process. The third phase summarizes the first two phases and concentrates on the role of methods and how practitioners work with them. All the phases provide evidence that current systems development method approaches are too naïve in looking at the complexity of the real world. In practice, development is influenced by opportunity and other contingent factors. The systems development processis not coordinated using phases and tasks defined in methods providing universal mechanism for managing this process like most of the method approaches assume.Instead, the studies suggest that managing systems development process happens through coordinating development activities using methods as tools. These studies contribute to the systems development methods by emphasizing the support of communication and collaboration between systems development participants. Methods should not describe the development activities and phases in a detail level, butshould include the higher level guidance for practitioners on how to act in different systems development environments.

Elicitation techniques for the evaluation of speech under stress: Towards a framework for use in a controlled environment

Existing work in Computer Science and Electronic Engineering demonstrates that Digital Signal Processing techniques can effectively identify the presence of stress in the speech signal. These techniques use datasets containing real or actual stress samples i.e. real-life stress such as 911 calls and so on. Studies that use simulated or laboratory-induced stress have been less successful and inconsistent. Pervasive, ubiquitous computing is increasingly moving towards voice-activated and voice-controlled systems and devices. Speech recognition and speaker identification algorithms will have to improve and take emotional speech into account. Modelling the influence of stress on speech and voice is of interest to researchers from many different disciplines including security, telecommunications, psychology, speech science, forensics and Human Computer Interaction (HCI). The aim of this work is to assess the impact of moderate stress on the speech signal. In order to do this, a dataset of laboratory-induced stress is required. While attempting to build this dataset it became apparent that reliably inducing measurable stress in a controlled environment, when speech is a requirement, is a challenging task. This work focuses on the use of a variety of stressors to elicit a stress response during tasks that involve speech content. Biosignal analysis (commercial Brain Computer Interfaces, eye tracking and skin resistance) is used to verify and quantify the stress response, if any. This thesis explains the basis of the author’s hypotheses on the elicitation of affectively-toned speech and presents the results of several studies carried out throughout the PhD research period. These results show that the elicitation of stress, particularly the induction of affectively-toned speech, is not a simple matter and that many modulating factors influence the stress response process. A model is proposed to reflect the author’s hypothesis on the emotional response pathways relating to the elicitation of stress with a required speech content. Finally the author provides guidelines and recommendations for future research on speech under stress. Further research paths are identified and a roadmap for future research in this area is defined.

Computational support for the process of software requirement specification

The software industry has become more and more concerned with the appropriate application of activities that composes requirement engineering as a way to improve the quality of its products. In order to support these activities, several computational tools have been available in the market, although it is still possible to find a lack of resources related to some activities. In this context, this paper proposes the inclusion of a module to aid in the requirements specification to a tool called Requirements Elicitation Support Tool. This module allows to specify requirements in accordance with IEEE 830 standard, thus contributing to the documentation of the requirements established for a software system, besides supporting the learning of concepts related to the requirements specification, which improves the skills of users of the tool. © 2012 IEEE.

Web based expert elicitation of uncertainties in environmental model inputs

When constructing and using environmental models, it is typical that many of the inputs to the models will not be known perfectly. In some cases, it will be possible to make observations, or occasionally physics-based uncertainty propagation, to ascertain the uncertainty on these inputs. However, such observations are often either not available or even possible, and another approach to characterising the uncertainty on the inputs must be sought. Even when observations are available, if the analysis is being carried out within a Bayesian framework then prior distributions will have to be specified. One option for gathering or at least estimating this information is to employ expert elicitation. Expert elicitation is well studied within statistics and psychology and involves the assessment of the beliefs of a group of experts about an uncertain quantity, (for example an input / parameter within a model), typically in terms of obtaining a probability distribution. One of the challenges in expert elicitation is to minimise the biases that might enter into the judgements made by the individual experts, and then to come to a consensus decision within the group of experts. Effort is made in the elicitation exercise to prevent biases clouding the judgements through well-devised questioning schemes. It is also important that, when reaching a consensus, the experts are exposed to the knowledge of the others in the group. Within the FP7 UncertWeb project (http://www.uncertweb.org/), there is a requirement to build a Webbased tool for expert elicitation. In this paper, we discuss some of the issues of building a Web-based elicitation system - both the technological aspects and the statistical and scientific issues. In particular, we demonstrate two tools: a Web-based system for the elicitation of continuous random variables and a system designed to elicit uncertainty about categorical random variables in the setting of landcover classification uncertainty. The first of these examples is a generic tool developed to elicit uncertainty about univariate continuous random variables. It is designed to be used within an application context and extends the existing SHELF method, adding a web interface and access to metadata. The tool is developed so that it can be readily integrated with environmental models exposed as web services. The second example was developed for the TREES-3 initiative which monitors tropical landcover change through ground-truthing at confluence points. It allows experts to validate the accuracy of automated landcover classifications using site-specific imagery and local knowledge. Experts may provide uncertainty information at various levels: from a general rating of their confidence in a site validation to a numerical ranking of the possible landcover types within a segment. A key challenge in the web based setting is the design of the user interface and the method of interacting between the problem owner and the problem experts. We show the workflow of the elicitation tool, and show how we can represent the final elicited distributions and confusion matrices using UncertML, ready for integration into uncertainty enabled workflows.We also show how the metadata associated with the elicitation exercise is captured and can be referenced from the elicited result, providing crucial lineage information and thus traceability in the decision making process.

Elicitator : an expert elicitation tool for regression in ecology

Expert elicitation is the process of retrieving and quantifying expert knowledge in a particular domain. Such information is of particular value when the empirical data is expensive, limited, or unreliable. This paper describes a new software tool, called Elicitator, which assists in quantifying expert knowledge in a form suitable for use as a prior model in Bayesian regression. Potential environmental domains for applying this elicitation tool include habitat modeling, assessing detectability or eradication, ecological condition assessments, risk analysis, and quantifying inputs to complex models of ecological processes. The tool has been developed to be user-friendly, extensible, and facilitate consistent and repeatable elicitation of expert knowledge across these various domains. We demonstrate its application to elicitation for logistic regression in a geographically based ecological context. The underlying statistical methodology is also novel, utilizing an indirect elicitation approach to target expert knowledge on a case-by-case basis. For several elicitation sites (or cases), experts are asked simply to quantify their estimated ecological response (e.g. probability of presence), and its range of plausible values, after inspecting (habitat) covariates via GIS.

Comparison of three expert elicitation methods for logistic regression on predicting the presence of the threatened brush-tailed rock-wallaby petrogale penicillata

Numerous expert elicitation methods have been suggested for generalised linear models (GLMs). This paper compares three relatively new approaches to eliciting expert knowledge in a form suitable for Bayesian logistic regression. These methods were trialled on two experts in order to model the habitat suitability of the threatened Australian brush-tailed rock-wallaby (Petrogale penicillata). The first elicitation approach is a geographically assisted indirect predictive method with a geographic information system (GIS) interface. The second approach is a predictive indirect method which uses an interactive graphical tool. The third method uses a questionnaire to elicit expert knowledge directly about the impact of a habitat variable on the response. Two variables (slope and aspect) are used to examine prior and posterior distributions of the three methods. The results indicate that there are some similarities and dissimilarities between the expert informed priors of the two experts formulated from the different approaches. The choice of elicitation method depends on the statistical knowledge of the expert, their mapping skills, time constraints, accessibility to experts and funding available. This trial reveals that expert knowledge can be important when modelling rare event data, such as threatened species, because experts can provide additional information that may not be represented in the dataset. However care must be taken with the way in which this information is elicited and formulated.

Expert elicitation and its interface with technology : a review with a view to designing Elicitator

Expert knowledge is valuable in many modelling endeavours, particularly where data is not extensive or sufficiently robust. In Bayesian statistics, expert opinion may be formulated as informative priors, to provide an honest reflection of the current state of knowledge, before updating this with new information. Technology is increasingly being exploited to help support the process of eliciting such information. This paper reviews the benefits that have been gained from utilizing technology in this way. These benefits can be structured within a six-step elicitation design framework proposed recently (Low Choy et al., 2009). We assume that the purpose of elicitation is to formulate a Bayesian statistical prior, either to provide a standalone expert-defined model, or for updating new data within a Bayesian analysis. We also assume that the model has been pre-specified before selecting the software. In this case, technology has the most to offer to: targeting what experts know (E2), eliciting and encoding expert opinions (E4), whilst enhancing accuracy (E5), and providing an effective and efficient protocol (E6). Benefits include: -providing an environment with familiar nuances (to make the expert comfortable) where experts can explore their knowledge from various perspectives (E2); -automating tedious or repetitive tasks, thereby minimizing calculation errors, as well as encouraging interaction between elicitors and experts (E5); -cognitive gains by educating users, enabling instant feedback (E2, E4-E5), and providing alternative methods of communicating assessments and feedback information, since experts think and learn differently; and -ensuring a repeatable and transparent protocol is used (E6).

Combining expert opinions in prior elicitation

A method of eliciting prior distributions for Bayesian models using expert knowledge is proposed. Elicitation is a widely studied problem, from a psychological perspective as well as from a statistical perspective. Here, we are interested in combining opinions from more than one expert using an explicitly model-based approach so that we may account for various sources of variation affecting elicited expert opinions. We use a hierarchical model to achieve this. We apply this approach to two problems. The first problem involves a food risk assessment problem involving modelling dose-response for Listeria monocytogenes contamination of mice. The second concerns the time taken by PhD students to submit their thesis in a particular school.

The requirement to 'Start a Proceeding' to prevent the lapse of a caveat

Section 126 of the Land Title Act 1994 (Qld) regulates whether, and if so, when a caveat will lapse. While certain caveats will not lapse due to the operation of s 126(1), if a caveator does not wish a caveat to which the section applies to lapse, the caveator must start a proceeding in a court of competent jurisdiction to establish the interest claimed under the caveat within the time limits specified in, and otherwise comply with the obligations imposed by, s 126(4). The requirement, in s 126(4), to “start a proceeding” was the subject of judicial examination by the Court of Appeal (McMurdo P, Holmes JA and MacKenzie J) in Cousins Securities Pty Ltd v CEC Group Ltd [2007] QCA 192.

Elicitator : a user-friendly, interactive tool to support scenario-based elicitation of expert knowledge

Expert elicitation is the process of determining what expert knowledge is relevant to support a quantitative analysis and then eliciting this information in a form that supports analysis or decision-making. The credibility of the overall analysis, therefore, relies on the credibility of the elicited knowledge. This, in turn, is determined by the rigor of the design and execution of the elicitation methodology, as well as by its clear communication to ensure transparency and repeatability. It is difficult to establish rigor when the elicitation methods are not documented, as often occurs in ecological research. In this chapter, we describe software that can be combined with a well-structured elicitation process to improve the rigor of expert elicitation and documentation of the results