Analyse en identification partielle de la décision d'émigrer des étudiants africains

La migration internationale d’étudiants est un investissement couteux pour les familles dans beaucoup de pays en voie de développement. Cependant, cet investissement est susceptible de générer des bénéfices financiers et sociaux relativement importants aux investisseurs, tout autant que des externalités pour d’autres membres de la famille. Cette thèse s’intéresse à deux aspects importants de la migration des étudiants internationaux : (i) Qui part? Quels sont les déterminants de la probabilité de migration? (ii) Qui paie? Comment la famille s’organise-t-elle pour couvrir les frais de la migration? (iii) Qui y gagne? Ce flux migratoire est-il au bénéfice du pays d’origine? Entreprendre une telle étude met le chercheur en face de défis importants, notamment, l’absence de données complètes et fiables; la dispersion géographique des étudiants migrants en étant la cause première. La première contribution importante de ce travail est le développement d’une méthode de sondage en « boule de neige » pour des populations difficiles à atteindre, ainsi que d’estimateurs corrigeant les possibles biais de sélection. A partir de cette méthodologie, j’ai collecté des données incluant simultanément des étudiants migrants et non-migrants du Cameroun en utilisant une plateforme internet. Un second défi relativement bien documenté est la présence d’endogénéité du choix d’éducation. Nous tirons avantage des récents développements théoriques dans le traitement des problèmes d’identification dans les modèles de choix discrets pour résoudre cette difficulté, tout en conservant la simplicité des hypothèses nécessaires. Ce travail constitue l’une des premières applications de cette méthodologie à des questions de développement. Le premier chapitre de la thèse étudie la décision prise par la famille d’investir dans la migration étudiante. Il propose un modèle structurel empirique de choix discret qui reflète à la fois le rendement brut de la migration et la contrainte budgétaire liée au problème de choix des agents. Nos résultats démontrent que le choix du niveau final d’éducation, les résultats académiques et l’aide de la famille sont des déterminants importants de la probabilité d’émigrer, au contraire du genre qui ne semble pas affecter très significativement la décision familiale. Le second chapitre s’efforce de comprendre comment les agents décident de leur participation à la décision de migration et comment la famille partage les profits et décourage le phénomène de « passagers clandestins ». D’autres résultats dans la littérature sur l’identification partielle nous permettent de considérer des comportements stratégiques au sein de l’unité familiale. Les premières estimations suggèrent que le modèle « unitaire », où un agent représentatif maximise l’utilité familiale ne convient qu’aux familles composées des parents et de l’enfant. Les aidants extérieurs subissent un cout strictement positif pour leur participation, ce qui décourage leur implication. Les obligations familiales et sociales semblent expliquer les cas de participation d’un aidant, mieux qu’un possible altruisme de ces derniers. Finalement, le troisième chapitre présente le cadre théorique plus général dans lequel s’imbriquent les modèles développés dans les précédents chapitres. Les méthodes d’identification et d’inférence présentées sont spécialisées aux jeux finis avec information complète. Avec mes co-auteurs, nous proposons notamment une procédure combinatoire pour une implémentation efficace du bootstrap aux fins d’inférences dans les modèles cités ci-dessus. Nous en faisons une application sur les déterminants du choix familial de soins à long terme pour des parents âgés.

Ciencias de la complejidad: estado actual

Los aportes teóricos y aplicados de la complejidad en economía han tomado tantas direcciones y han sido tan frenéticos en las últimas décadas, que no existe un trabajo reciente, hasta donde conocemos, que los compile y los analice de forma integrada. El objetivo de este proyecto, por tanto, es desarrollar un estado situacional de las diferentes aplicaciones conceptuales, teóricas, metodológicas y tecnológicas de las ciencias de la complejidad en la economía. Asimismo, se pretende analizar las tendencias recientes en el estudio de la complejidad de los sistemas económicos y los horizontes que las ciencias de la complejidad ofrecen de cara al abordaje de los fenómenos económicos del mundo globalizado contemporáneo.

Hisendes locals i turisme: tres assaigs

Aquesta tesi utilitza l'anàlisi econòmica per a estudiar les hisendes locals, especialment els aspectes relacionats amb la provisió i finançament dels béns i serveis públics locals. Les hisendes locals, tant a Catalunya com a la resta d'Espanya, pateixen diversos problemes. Dos són especialment rellevants per a aquesta tesi. El primer és la reduïda dimensió dels municipis, l'altre la seva insuficient dotació financera. A la tesi es tracten aquestes dues qüestions en cinc capítols. Primer s'introdueix la problemàtica, exposant-ne els antecedents, la situació actual i la metodologia per al seu anàlisi. A continuació s'aborda la relació entre la grandària dels municipis i la seva capacitat per a proveir béns i serveis públics. De manera recurrent es produeixen debats sobre els problemes que pateixen els municipis petits. El problema més evident d'aquests municipis és el dèficit de serveis públics. Es sol argumentar que els municipis petits pateixen aquests dèficits en la provisió de serveis públics a causa de la manca d'un nombre crític d'habitants. Normalment es presenta la consolidació municipal com a solució a aquest problema. En aquest treball analitzem les diferents vessants de la qüestió dels dèficits de serveis municipals. Es continua analitzant com influeix sobre el sector privat la incapacitat per part dels municipis de prestar la quantitat i/o qualitat correcta de béns i serveis públics. Sembla clar que l'atractiu d'un hotel per als seus clients depèn tant dels serveis que ofereix com de l'entorn en què es troba. Com s'ha dit sovint "un hotel de quatre estrelles necessita un entorn de quatre estrelles". Aquests atributs que configuren l'entorn són complementaris a l'oferta privada dels serveis hotelers i són essencials a l'hora de definir les opcions de comercialització, ja que sembla raonable que diferències en les dotacions de serveis públics, capital natural i imatge de la localitat generaran diferències en els preus d'hotels que altrament són idèntics. A la següent etapa s'estudia la situació financera a la qual s'enfronten els municipis a l'hora de proveir els béns i serveis públics, especialment en el cas de les localitats amb forta implantació de l'activitat turística. L'objectiu d'aquest estudi és doble. Primer, realitzar una anàlisi i un diagnòstic del finançament als municipis turístics i, segon, discutir diferents vies de millora. En una primera part s'exposa el marc que cal tenir en compte a l'hora de considerar les qüestions de provisió de serveis públics i els consegüents aspectes pressupostaris. Després es presenta un model estilitzat de provisió de béns públics i d'estructura pressupostària que explicita, amb la intenció de portar a terme l'anàlisi economètrica, les interrelacions rellevants entre provisió de serveis públics, ingressos fiscals i despeses. Tot seguit es presenten les dades que han de servir per a una anàlisi empírica que té dues vessants. Primer, estudiar si realment els municipis amb un fort pes de l'activitat turística presenten diferències en l'àmbit pressupostari i, segon, concretar quantificar en què consisteixen i de què depenen les diferències. El sisè apartat tracta la complementarietat entre béns i serveis públics des d'un marc normatiu, posant de manifest els aspectes que ha de tenir en compte un municipi turístic en les qüestions de provisió i finançament dels béns públics i que fan que tingui un comportament diferent d'un municipi no turístic. El penúltim apartat del treball inclou la discussió i l'avaluació d'algunes propostes correctores dels problemes detectats a l'anàlisi estadística i economètrica. El treball conclou amb un resum de les principals conclusions. La tesi conclou amb una discussió dels resultats obtinguts.

A new look at stratospheric sudden warmings. Part III. Polar vortex evolution and vertical structure

The evolution of the Arctic polar vortex during observed major mid-winter stratospheric sudden warmings (SSWs) is investigated for the period 1957-2002, using European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) ERA-40 Ertel’s potential vorticity (PV) and temperature fields. Time-lag composites of vertically weighted PV, calculated relative to the SSW onset time, are derived for both vortex displacement SSWs and vortex splitting SSWs, by averaging over the 15 recorded displacement and 13 splitting events. The evolving vertical structure of the polar vortex during a typical SSW of each type is clearly illustrated by plotting an isosurface of the composite PV field, and is shown to be very close to that observed during representative individual events. Results are verified by comparison with an elliptical diagnostic vortex moment technique. For both types of SSW, little variation is found between individual events in the orientation of the developing vortex relative to the underlying topography, i.e. the location of the vortex during SSWs of each type is largely fixed in relation to the Earth’s surface. During each type of SSW, the vortex is found to have a distinctive vertical structure. Vortex splitting events are typically barotropic, with the vortex split occurring near-simultaneously over a large altitude range (20-40 km). In the majority of cases, of the two daughter vortices formed, it is the ‘Siberian’ vortex that dominates over its ‘Canadian’ counterpart. In contrast, displacement events are characterized by a very clear baroclinic structure; the vortex tilts significantly westward with height, so that the top and bottom of the vortex are separated by nearly 180◦ longitude before the upper vortex is sheared away and destroyed.

Considerações sobre o indivíduo representativo

Neste artigo são elaboradas considerações a propósito da importância teórica e metodológica de contextualizar o indivíduo, sob uma abordagem sócio-histórica. Registra-se uma dupla concepção desse objeto de estudo: os homens reais, indivíduos concretos, vivendo no mundo da alienação que os deforma, mutila e limita sua evolução; e o homem representativo, total ou verdadeiro, que corresponde à imagem de suas possibilidades históricas. Tenta-se aqui, apenas iniciar a discussão sobre tal objeto, sem nenhuma intenção de esgotá-lo, ou mesmo de dar conta da infinidade de facetas que o compõem.

An endogenous rate of time preference, the Penrose effect, and dynamic optimality of environmental quality.

In the present paper, the endogenous theory of time preference is extended to analyze those processes of capital accumulation and changes in environmental quality that are dynamically optimum with respect to the intertemporal preference ordering of the representative individual of the society in question. The analysis is carried out within the conceptual framework of the dynamic analysis of environmental quality, as has been developed by a number of economists for specific cases of the fisheries and forestry commons. The duality principles on intertemporal preference ordering and capital accumulation are extended to the situation where processes of capital accumulation are subject to the Penrose effect, which exhibit the marginal decrease in the effect of investment in private and social overhead capital upon the rate at which capital is accumulated. The dynamically optimum time-path of economic activities is characterized by the proportionality of two systems of imputed, or efficient, prices, one associated with the given intertemporal ordering and another associated with processes of accumulation of private and social overhead capital. It is particularly shown that the dynamically optimality of the processes of capital accumulation involving both private and social overhead capital is characterized by the conditions that are identical with those involving private capital, with the role of social overhead capital only indirectly exhibited.

Extended theory about the allocation of time: Description and application to the increase in the retirement age policies

This paper revises mainstream economic models which include time use in an explicit and endogenous manner, suggesting a extended theory which escape from the main problem existing in the literature. In order to do it, we start by presenting in section 2 the mainstream time use models in economics, showing their main features. Once this is done, we introduce the reader in the main problems this kind of well established models imply, within section 3, being the most highlighted the problem of joint production. Subsequently, we propose an extended theory which solves the problem of joint production; this is extensively described in section 4. Last, but not least, we apply this model to offer a time use analysis of the effect of a policy which increases the retirement age in a life-cycle perspective for a representative individual.

Bond strength of a pit-and-fissure sealant associated to etch-and-rinse and self-etching adhesive systems to saliva-contaminated enamel: individual vs. simultaneous light curing

This study evaluated in vitro the shear bond strength (SBS) of a resin-based pit-and-fissure sealant [Fluroshield (F), Dentsply/Caulk] associated with either an etch-and-rinse [Adper Single Bond 2 (SB), 3M/ESPE] or a self-etching adhesive system [Clearfil S3 Bond (S3), Kuraray Co., Ltd.] to saliva-contaminated enamel, comparing two curing protocols: individual light curing of the adhesive system and the sealant or simultaneous curing of both materials. Mesial and distal enamel surfaces from 45 sound third molars were randomly assigned to 6 groups (n=15), according to the bonding technique: I - F was applied to 37% phosphoric acid etched enamel. The other groups were contaminated with fresh human saliva (0.01 mL; 10 s) after acid etching: II - SB and F were light cured separately; III - SB and F were light cured together; IV - S3 and F were light cured separately; V - S3 and F were light cured simultaneously; VI - F was applied to saliva-contaminated, acid-etched enamel without an intermediate bonding agent layer. SBS was tested to failure in a universal testing machine at 0.5 mm/min. Data were analyzed by one-way ANOVA and Fisher's test (α=0.05).The debonded specimens were examined with a stereomicroscope to assess the failure modes. Three representative specimens from each group were observed under scanning electron microscopy for a qualitative analysis. Mean SBS in MPa were: I-12.28 (±4.29); II-8.57 (±3.19); III-7.97 (±2.16); IV-12.56 (±3.11); V-11.45 (±3.77); and VI-7.47 (±1.99). In conclusion, individual or simultaneous curing of the intermediate bonding agent layer and the resin sealant did not seem to affect bond strength to saliva-contaminated enamel. S3/F presented significantly higher SBS than the that of the groups treated with SB etch-and-rinse adhesive system and similar SBS to that of the control group, in which the sealant was applied under ideal dry, noncontaminated conditions.

Discrepancies among ecological, household, and individual data on fruits and vegetables consumption in Brazil

Information on fruits and vegetables consumption in Brazil in the three levels of dietary data was analyzed and compared. Data about national supply came from Food Balance Sheets compiled by the FAO; household availability information was obtained from the Brazilian National Household Budget Survey (HBS); and actual intake information came from a large individual dietary intake survey that was representative of the adult population of São Paulo city. All sources of information were collected between 2002 and 2003. A subset of the HBS, representative of São Paulo city, was used in our analysis in order to improve the quality of the comparison with actual intake data. The ratio of national supply to household availability of fruits and vegetables was 2.6 while the ratio of national supply to actual intake was 4.0. The discrepancy ratio in the comparison between household availability and actual intake was smaller, 1.6. While the use of supply and availability data has advantages, as lower cost, must be taken into account that these sources tend to overestimate actual intake of fruits and vegetables.

Assessing Individual Interethnic Admixture and Population Substructure Using a 48-Insertion-Deletion (INSEL) Ancestry-Informative Marker (AIM) Panel

Estimating the proportions of different ancestries in admixed populations is very important in population genetics studies, and it is particularly important for detecting population substructure effects in case-control association studies. In this work, a set of 48 ancestry, informative insertion, deletion polymorphisms (INDELs) were selected with the goal of efficiently measuring the proportions of three different ancestries (sub-Saharan African, European, and Native American) in mixed populations. All selected markers can be easily analyzed via multiplex PCR and detected with standard capillary electrophoresis. A total of 593 unrelated individuals representative of European, African, and Native American parental populations were typed, as were 380 individuals from three Brazilian populations with known admixture patterns. As expected, the interethnic admixture estimates show that individuals from southern Brazil present an almost exclusively European ancestry; Afro-descendant communities in the Amazon region, apart from the major African contribution, present some degree of admixture with Europeans and Native Americans; and a sample from Belem, in the northeastern Amazon, shows a significant contribution of the three ethnic groups, although with a greater European proportion. In summary, a panel of ancestry-informative INDELs was optimized and proven to be a variable tool for estimating individual and global ancestry proportions in admixed populations. The ability to accurately infer interethnic admixtures highlights the usefulness of this marker set for assessing population substructure in association studies, particularly those conducted in Brazilian and other Latin American populations sharing trihybrid ancestry patterns. Hum Mutat 31:184-190, 2010. (C) 2009 Wiley-Liss, Inc.

Collective victimisation and collective guilt in the former Yugoslavia : the interplay between individual, local and societal levels

The thesis examines the impact of collective war victimization on individuals' readiness to accept or assign collective guilt for past war atrocities. As a complement to previous studies, its aim is to articulate an integrated approach to collective victimization, which distinguishes between individual-, communal-, and societal-level consequences of warfare. Building on a social representation approach, it is guided by the assumption that individuals form beliefs about a conflict through their personal experiences of victimization, communal experiences of warfare that occur in their proximal surrounding, and the mass- mediatised narratives that circulate in a society's public sphere. Four empirical studies test the hypothesis that individuals' beliefs about the conflict depend on the level and type of war experiences to which they have been exposed, that is, on informative and normative micro and macro contexts in which they are embedded. The studies have been conducted in the context of the Yugoslav wars that attended the breakup of Yugoslavia, a series of wars fought between 1991 and 2001 during which numerous war atrocities were perpetrated causing a massive victimisation of population. To examine the content and impact of war experiences at each level of analysis, the empirical studies employed various methodological strategies, from quantitative analyses of a representative public opinion survey, to qualitative analyses of media content and political speeches. Study 1 examines the impact of individual- and communal- level war experiences on individuals' acceptance and assignment of collective guilt. It further examines the impact of the type of communal level victimization: exposure to symmetric (i.e., violence that similarly affects members of different ethnic groups, including adversaries) and asymmetric violence. The main goal of Study 2 is to examine the structural and political circumstances that enhance collective guilt assignment. While the previous studies emphasize the role of past victimisation, Study 2 tests the assumption that the political demobilisation strategy employed by elites facing public discontent in the collective system-threatening circumstances can fuel out-group blame. Studies 3 and 4 have been conducted predominantly in the context of Croatia and examine rhetoric construction of the dominant politicized narrative of war in a public sphere (Study 3) and its maintenance through public delegitimization of alternative (critical) representations (Study 4). Study 4 further examines the likelihood that highly identified group members adhere to publicly delegitimized critical stances on war. - Cette thèse étudie l'impact de la victimisation collective de guerre sur la capacité des individus à accepter ou à attribuer une culpabilité collective liée à des atrocités commises en temps de guerre. En compléments aux recherches existantes, le but de ce travail est de définir une approche intégrative de la victimisation collective, qui distingue les conséquences de la guerre aux niveaux individuel, régional et sociétal. En partant de l'approche des représentations sociales, cette thèse repose sur le postulat que les individus forment des croyances sur un conflit au travers de leurs expériences personnelles de victimisation, de leurs expériences de guerre lorsque celle-ci se déroule près d'eux, ainsi qu'au travers des récits relayés par les mass media. Quatre études testent l'hypothèse que les croyances des individus dépendent des niveaux et des types d'expériences de guerre auxquels ils ont été exposés, c'est-à-dire, des contextes informatifs et normatifs, micro et macro dans lesquels ils sont insérés. Ces études ont été réalisées dans le contexte des guerres qui, entre 1991 et 2001, ont suivi la dissolution de la Yougoslavie et durant lesquelles de nombreuses atrocités de guerre ont été commises, causant une victimisation massive de la population. Afin d'étudier le contenu et l'impact des expériences de guerre sur chaque niveau d'analyse, différentes stratégies méthodologiques ont été utilisées, des analyses quantitatives sur une enquête représentative d'opinion publique aux analyses qualitatives de contenu de médias et de discours politiques. L'étude 1 étudie l'impact des expériences de guerre individuelles et régionales sur l'acceptation et l'attribution de la culpabilité collective par les individus. Elle examine aussi l'impact du type de victimisation régionale : exposition à la violence symétrique (i.e., violence qui touche les membres de différents groupes ethniques, y compris les adversaires) et asymétrique. L'étude 2 se penche sur les circonstances structurelles et politiques qui augmentent l'attribution de culpabilité collective. Alors que les recherches précédentes ont mis l'accent sur le rôle de la victimisation passée, l'étude 2 teste l'hypothèse que la stratégie de démobilisation politique utilisée par les élites pour faire face à l'insatisfaction publique peut encourager l'attribution de la culpabilité à l'exogroupe. Les études 3 et 4 étudient, principalement dans le contexte croate, la construction rhétorique du récit de guerre politisé dominant (étude 3) et son entretien à travers la délégitimation publique des représentations alternatives (critiques] (étude 4). L'étude 4 examine aussi la probabilité qu'ont les membres de groupe fortement identifiés d'adhérer à des points de vue sur la guerre critiques et publiquement délégitimés.

Individual monitoring of medical staff working in interventional radiology in Switzerland using double dosimetry

Physicians who frequently perform fluoroscopic examinations are exposed to high intensity radiation fields. The exposure monitoring is performed with a regular personal dosimeter under the apron in order to estimate the effective dose. However, large parts of the body are not protected by the apron (e.g. arms, head). Therefore, it is recommended to wear a supplemental dosimeter over the apron to obtain a better representative estimate of the effective dose. The over-apron dosimeter can also be used to estimate the eye lens dose. The goal of this study was to investigate the relevance of double dosimetry in interventional radiology. First the calibration procedure of the dosimeters placed over the apron was tested. Then, results of double dosimetry during the last five years were analyzed. We found that the personal dose equivalent measured over a lead apron was underestimated by ∼20% to ∼40% for X-ray beam qualities used in radiology. Measurements made over five-year period confirm that the use of a single under-apron dosimeter is inadequate for personnel monitoring. Relatively high skin dose (>10 mSv/month) would have remained undetected without a second dosimeter placed on the apron.

Change of individual BMI in Switzerland and the USA: a multilevel model for growth

Objective The aim is to analyze and compare individual BMI growth patterns of adults from Switzerland and the U.S. Methods The analyses are based on data from two population representative longitudinal household surveys, one from Switzerland, the other from the U.S. Each data set contains up to four data points for each adult individual. We use multilevel models for growth. Results It can be shown that growth patterns are different in different cohorts in the two countries: there are only small growth differences in the youngest and oldest, but large differences in the middle ages. The individual BMI increase of the middle age Swiss amounts to only half of that in the comparable U.S. individuals. Conclusion Given the much higher BMI level especially in the youngest cohort, this points to severe obesity problems in the U.S. middle aged population in the near future. A positive correlation between individual BMI level and growth may aggravate this fact.

Meaning in life and perceived quality of life in Switzerland: results of a representative survey in the German, French and Italian regions.

BACKGROUND: The concept of meaning in life (MIL) has become a central one in recent years, particularly in psycho-oncology and palliative care. The Schedule for Meaning in Life Evaluation (SMILE) has been developed to allow individuals to choose the life areas that they consider to be important for their own MIL. This approach relates to the "World Health Organisation" definition of quality of life (QOL) as an individual's perception of his own position. The aims of this study were (i) to assess MIL in a representative sample of the Swiss population according to the three linguistic regions and (ii) to evaluate whether MIL constitutes a significant determinant of the perceived QOL. METHODS: A telephone survey of the Swiss population, performed by a professional survey company, was conducted between November and December 2013. The interview included the SMILE, perceived QOL (0-10) and health status (1-5), and various sociodemographic variables. In the SMILE, an index of weighting (IOW, 20-100), an index of satisfaction (IOS, 0-100), and a total SMILE index (IOWS, 0-100) are calculated from the areas mentioned by the participants as providing MIL. RESULTS: Among the 6671 telephonic contacts realized, 1015 (15 %) participants completed the survey: 405 French, 400 German and 210 Italian participants. "Family" (80.2 %), "occupation/work" (51 %), and "social relations" (43.3 %) were the most cited MIL-relevant categories. Italian participants listed "health" more frequently than German and French participants (50.4 % vs 31.5 % and 24.8 % respectively, χ(2) = 12.229, p = .002). Age, gender, education, employment, and marital status significantly influenced either the MIL scores or the MIL-relevant categories. Linear regression analyses indicate that 24.3 % of the QOL variance (p = .000) is explained by health status (B = .609, IC = .490-.728, p = .000), MIL (B = .034, IC = .028-.041, p = .000) and socioeconomic status (F = 11.01, p = .000). CONCLUSION: The major finding of our analysis highlights the positive and significant influence of MIL on the perceived QOL in a representative sample of a general, multilingual and multicultural population. This result indicates that the existential dimension is not only determinant for QOL in some critical life events, as shown e.g. in psycho-oncology and palliative care, but also in everyday life.