A panel vector error correction approach to forecasting demand in regional construction markets

Reliable forecasting as to the level of aggregate demand for construction is of vital importance to developers, builders and policymakers. Previous construction demand forecasting studies mainly focused on temporal estimating using national aggregate data. The construction market can be better represented by a group of interconnected regions or local markets rather than a national aggregate, and yet regional forecasting techniques have rarely been applied. Furthermore, limited research has applied regional variations in construction markets to construction demand modelling and forecasting. A new comprehensive method is used, a panel vector error correction approach, to forecast regional construction demand using Australia’s state-level data. The links between regional construction demand and general economic indicators are investigated by panel cointegration and causality analysis. The empirical results suggest that both long-run and causal links are found between regional construction demand and construction price, state income, population, unemployment rates and interest rates. The panel vector error correction model can provide reliable and robust forecasting with less than 10% of the mean absolute percentage error for a medium-term trend of regional construction demand and outperforms the conventional forecasting models (panel multiple regression and time series multiple regression model). The key macroeconomic factors of construction demand variations across regions in Australia are also presented. The findings and robust econometric techniques used are valuable to construction economists in examining future construction markets at a regional level.

Consumers’ intentions to adopt 3G in regional cities in China : a comparative study

Rapid mobile technological evolution and the large economic stake in commercial development of mobile technological innovation make it necessary to understand consumers' motivations towards the latest advanced and updated technologies and services. 3G (the third generation of mobile communication technology) recently started its commercial development in the world‘s largest mobile communication market, China, after being delayed for a few years. Although China fell behind in commercially developing 3G, it is difficult to ignore studying this area, given the size of the market and promising future developments. This market deserves focused research attention, especially in terms of consumer behaviour towards the adoption of mobile technological innovation. Thus, the program of research in this thesis was designed to investigate how Chinese consumers respond to the use of this newly launched mobile technological innovation, with a focus on what factors affect their 3G adoption intentions. It aimed to yield important insights into Chinese consumers‘ innovation adoption behaviours and to contribute to marketing and innovation adoption research. Furthermore, it has been documented that Chinese consumers vary widely between regions in dialect, lifestyle, culture, purchasing power and consumption attitudes. Based on economic development and local culture, China can be divided geographically into distinctive regional consumer markets. Consequently, the results of consumer behaviour research in one region may not necessarily be extrapolated to other regions. In order to better understand Chinese consumers, the disparities between regions should not be overlooked. Therefore, another objective of this program of research was to examine regional variances in consumers' innovation adoption, specifically to identify the similarities and differences in factors influencing 3G adoption, contributing to intra-cultural studies. An extensive literature review identified two gaps: current China-based innovation adoption research studies are limited in providing adequate prediction and explanation of Chinese consumers' intentions to adopt 3G; and there was limited knowledge about the differences between regional Chinese consumers in innovation adoption. Two research questions therefore were developed to address these gaps: 1) What factors influence Chinese consumers' intentions to adopt 3G? 2) How do Chinese consumers differ between regional markets in the relative influence of the factors in determining their intentions to adopt 3G? In accordance with postpositivist research philosophy, two studies were designed to answer the research questions, using mixed methods. To meet the research objectives, the two studies were both conducted in three regional cities, namely Beijing, Shanghai and Wuhan, centred in the three regions of North China, East China and Central China respectively, with sufficient cultural and economical regional variances. Study One was an exploratory study with qualitative research methods. It involved 45 in-depth interviews in the three research cities to gain rich insights into the research context from natural settings. Eight important concepts related to 3G adoption were generated from analysis of the interview data, namely utilitarian expectation, hedonic expectation, status gains, status loss avoidance, normative influence, external influence, cost and quality concern. The concepts of social loss avoidance and quality concern were two unique findings, whereas the other concepts were similar to the findings in Western innovation adoption studies. Moreover, variances in 3G adoption between three groups of regional consumers were also identified, focusing on the perceptions of two concepts, namely status gains and normative influence. The conceptual research model was then developed incorporating the eight concepts plus the dependent variable of adoption intention. The hypothesized relationships between the nine constructs and hypotheses about the differences between regional consumers in 3G adoption were informed by the findings of Study One and the literature reviewed. Study Two was a quantitative study involving a web-based survey and statistical analysis procedure. The web-based survey attracted 800 residents from the three research cities, 270 from Beijing, 265 from Shanghai and 265 from Wuhan. They comprised three research samples for this study and consequently three sets of data were obtained. The data was analysed by Structural Equation Modelling together with Multi-group Analysis. The analysis confirmed that the concepts generated in Study One were influential factors affecting Chinese consumers' 3G adoption intention, with the exception of the concept external influence. Differences were found between the samples in the three research cities in the effect of hedonic expectation, status gains, status loss avoidance and normative influence on 3G adoption intention. The two Studies undertaken in this thesis contributed a better understanding of Chinese consumers' intentions to adopt advanced mobile technological innovation, namely 3G, in three regional markets. This knowledge contributes to innovation adoption and intra-cultural research, as well as consumer behaviour theory. It is also able to inform international and domestic telecommunication companies to develop and deliver more effective marketing strategies across Chinese regional markets. Limitations in the research were identified in terms of the sampling techniques used and the design of the two Studies. Future research was suggested in other Chinese regional markets and into consumer adoption of other types of mobile technological innovations.

Spatial linkages among Australian construction markets

The linkages among different construction markets have recently attracted much attention from construction economists. The interactions among regional construction markets have been discussed in a few studies, most of which have been carried out by using input-output methods, and none of them investigated spatial effects on the regional construction markets. This study employed spatial econometric techniques, including spatial autocorrelation and convergence tests, to analyse interactions and linkages among construction price indices in Australian six states and two territories. The empirical results indicate the presence of significant positive spatial correlation among the construction prices in Australian eight construction markets and the degree of dependence decreasing sufficiently quickly as the space between regions increases. The results of convergence test further provide evidence of existence of a ripple effect in construction prices among the Australian regional markets and the changes in construction prices in a state would first positively influence neighbouring states, and then spread out into other non-neighbouring states or territories.

Are Chinese stock markets increasing integration with other markets in the greater China region and other major markets?

This paper investigates the cointegrating and long-term causal relationships between the Shanghai A and B-share market, and between these two markets and the Hong Kong, the Taiwanese, the Japanese and the US market of two sub periods between July 1993 and March 2007. On the basis of a new Granger non-causality test procedure developed by Toda-Yamamoto (1995) and Johansen’s (1988) cointegration test, my results suggest that a long-term equilibrium relationship measured by cointegration has been merged between
the Chinese A-share market and the other markets in greater China region as well as the US market during the post-crisis period which covers the period since Chinese A-share market was opened to the Qualified Foreign Institutional Investors (QFII) in 2002. I also found that the Shanghai A-share market uni-directionally Granger-causes the other regional markets after the Asian financial crisis, while the A-share market and Hong Kong H-share market have had a significant feedback relationship since then. However, I found no evidence there has been cointegrating relationship between Shanghai B-share market and any other market ever since the B-share market was opened to the local retail investors in 2001.

New Patterns in Global Television : Peripheral Vision

Over recent decades, the flow of television programmes and services between nations has prompted concerns about `Cultural Imperialism', the idea that the powerful metropolitan nations at the centre of the world system are breaking down the integrity and autonomy of the peripheral countries. New Patterns in Global Television challenges that notion by showing that some of the countries outside the traditionally dominant centres have now developed strong television industries of their own, and have been expanding into regional markets, especially - but not exclusively - where linguistic and cultural similarities exist. This book brings together contributions from specialist researchers on the most dynamic of these regions: Latin America, India, the Middle East, Greater China and, in the English-speaking world, Canada and Australia. It provides the first comprehensive overview of the new patterns of flow in international television programme exchange and service provision in the satellite era, patterns unrecognised by the perspective of the prevailing theoretical orthodoxies in international communication research and policy.

The micro-movie wave in a globalising China : adaptation, formalisation and commercialisation

While user-generated short online videos have existed since the emergence of video sharing sites in China, they have undergone a process of formalisation and commercialisation, culminating in the wave of micro-movies in recent years. By addressing the wider context of globalisation alongside relevant state policies and shifting viewing habits, this article analyses the local and global causes of this wave. It offers evidence that illustrates how online video service providers in China have adapted in a changing industry landscape as they negotiate state policies, advertiser interests and user preference. It then examines the production and distribution dynamics, where professional producers draw on social media, grassroots creativity and creative talents in regional markets. Finally, it discusses the cultural implications of this process in terms of both the nature and flow of creativity. Based on these analyses, the article also sheds light on the interplay between the state and the market in the context of globalisation and marketisation of media sectors, which becomes more complicated when the state-owned or controlled media enter the emerging market sectors.

National Agricultural Research Organisation. Fisheries Resources Research Institute Annual Report 2002/2003

One of the avenues through which the Government objective of poverty eradication in Uganda can be achieved is Fisheries development and management. Up to 20% of Uganda’s surface area is covered by aquatic systems i.e. lakes, rivers, streams and swamps and to a large extent, all these are interconnected. The large lakes: Victoria, Albert, Kyoga, George and Edward are sites of the more important commercial fisheries, but even the smaller water bodies, rivers (e.g. the Rivers Nile and Kagera) and the surrounding swamps provide sources of livelihood to rural areas. Fish is an important source of high quality food, employment revenue and is currently the second most important export commodity next to coffee generating approximately US $ 80 million annually. Fish exports to regional markets are worth at least US $ 20 million annually. Fish flesh is rich in proteins, which are superior to those of beef and poultry. Fish flesh contains an anticholesterol which assists in reducing heart diseases. Some fishes are of medicinal value e.g. haplochromines (Nkejje) are used to treat measles. Most of the fish in Uganda is got from lakes Victoria, Kyoga, Albert and Albert Nile, Edward and George production systems as well as from the 160 minor lakes and rivers and the associated wetland systems. Capture fisheries based in these systems contribute up to 99% of the fish production in Uganda but aquaculture is also picking up. The fishing industry employs up to one million Ugandans

National Agricultural Research Organisation. Fisheries Resources Research Institute Annual Report 2003/2004

About 18% of Uganda’s surface area is covered with water from which 300,000 metric tonnes of fish are produced. Fish are currently the second most important export commodity generating approximately US$100 million. Fish provides 50% of protein diet for the 20 million people translating into per capita consumption of 12 kg. Close to the production system, this figure rises to 50 – 100 kg. It is estimated that fishery-related activities employ at least one million people countrywide (i.e. 5% of the population). Fish is an important source of high quality food, employment, and revenue and it is currently the second most important export commodity next to coffee generating approximately US $ 80 million annually. Fish exports to regional markets are worth at least US $ 20 million annually. Fish flesh is rich in proteins, which are superior to those of beef and poultry. Fish flesh contains an anticholesterol which assists in reducing heart diseases. Some fishes are of medicinal value e.g. haplochromines (Nkejje) are used to treat measles. Most of the fish in Uganda is got from lakes Victoria, Kyoga, Albert and Albert Nile, Edward and George production systems as well as from the 160 minor lakes and rivers and the associated wetland systems. Capture fisheries based in these systems contribute up to 99% of the fish production in Uganda but aquaculture is also picking up. The fishing industry employs up to one million Ugandans.

National Agricultural Research Organisation. Fisheries Resources Research Institute Annual Report 2004/2005

About 18% of Uganda’s surface area is covered with water from which about 300,000 metric tonnes of fish are produced. Fish are currently the second most important export commodity generating approximately US$100 million annually. Fish provides 50% of protein diet for the 20 million people translating into per capita consumption of 12 kg. Close to the production system, this figure rises to 50 – 100 kg. It is estimated that fishery-related activities employ at least one million people countrywide (i.e. 5% of the population). Fish exports to regional markets are worth at least US $ 20 million annually. Fish flesh contains an anticholesterol which assists in reducing heart diseases. Some fishes are of medicinal value e.g. haplochromines (Nkejje) are used to treat measles. Most of the fish in Uganda is got from lakes Victoria, Kyoga, Albert and Albert Nile, Edward and George production systems as well as from the 160 minor lakes and rivers and the associated wetland systems. Capture fisheries based in these systems contribute up to 99% of the fish production in Uganda but aquaculture is also picking up. The fishing industry employs up to one million Ugandans

A study on stock enhancement/restocking of the Kyoga basin lakes

Increased management attention to the fisheries tn Uganda is fuelled by five major factors:socio-economic demands, human population increase,stock depletion, biodiversity loss and,environmental degradation.Fish exports from Uganda to overseas and regional markets have rapidly increased since the mid 1990s and it is estimated that total exports are worth at least US$ 200m three quarters of the value due mostly to Nile perch exports to overseas markets.Exports to regional markets are dominated by variously processed tilapia "mukene" (Rastrineobo/a argentea),Nile perch "angara"(A/estes baremose) and cat fishes.Virtually all major water bodies contribute to this trade. A combinatilm of exports and an increased human population has seen the per capita fish consumption in Uganda drop from 15kg in the early 1990s to almost 10kg by 2005.this figure is below the WHO recommended fish protein intake of 17kg. the apparent fish gap in a liberalised economic framework has stimulated interest in commercial fish farming

Factors influencing a conversion to organic farming in Nepalese tea farms

Organic agriculture in developing countries has increased in past decades especially due to the high demand of organic products in developed countries. The rate of conversion to organic production in Nepal, however, is observed much slower than expected. This study investigates factors that determine the conversion to organic production using Nepalese tea producers as a case study. A survey of 181 farmers was conducted in the Ilam and Panchthar district of Nepal, among which 86 were organic farmers and 95 were conventional farmers. A discriminant analysis was used to identify socio-economic characteristics that distinguish conventional and organic farmers. Results from the estimated discriminant function suggest that farmers located in a distance from regional markets, older in age, better trained, affiliated with institutions and having larger farms are more likely to adopt organic production. Similarly, a factor analysis shows that environmental awareness, bright market prospects, observable economic benefit and health consciousness are the major factors influencing farmers’ decisions on the conversion to organic production. While planning programs for the development of the organic tea sector in Nepal, policy makers should consider the support of farmers’ institutions, provision of training to farmers and raise farmers’ awareness about the environmental, economic and health benefits of organic farming.

Seafood safety and quality: an analysis of the supply chain in the Sultanate of Oman

The globalization of trade in fish has created many challenges for the developing world specifically with regard to food safety and quality. International organisations have established a good basis for standards in international trade. Whilst these requirements are frequently embraced by the major importers (such as Japan, the EU and the USA), they often impose additional safety requirements and regularly identify batches which fail to meet their strict standards. Creating an effective national seafood control system which meets both the internal national needs as well the requirements for the export market can be challenging. Many countries adopt a dual system where seafood products for the major export markets are subject to tight control whilst the majority of the products (whether for the local market or for more regional trade) are less tightly controlled. With regional liberalization also occurring, deciding on appropriate controls is complex. In the Sultanate of Oman, fisheries production is one of the countries' chief sources of economic revenue after oil production and is a major source of the national food supply. In this paper the structure of the fish supply chain has been analysed and highlighted the different routes operating for the different markets. Although much of the fish are consumed within Oman, there is a major export trade to the local regional markets. Much smaller quantities meet the more stringent standards imposed by the major importing countries and exports to these are limited. The paper has considered the development of the Omani fish control system including the key legislative documents and the administrative structures that have been developed. Establishing modern controls which satisfy the demands of the major importers is possible but places additional costs on businesses. Enhanced controls such as HACCP and other management standards are required but can be difficult to justify when alternative markets do not specify these. These enhanced controls do however provide additional consumer protection and can bring benefits to local consumers. The Omani government is attempting to upgrade the system of controls and has made tremendous progress toward the implementation of HACCP and introducing enhanced management systems into its industrial sector. The existence of strengthened legislative and government support, including subsidies, has encouraged some businesses to implement HACCP. The current control systems have been reviewed and a SWOT analysis approach used to identify key factors for their future development. The study shows that seafood products in the supply chain are often exposed to lengthy handling and distribution process before reaching the consumers, a typical issue faced by many developing countries. As seafood products are often perishable, they safety is compromised if not adequately controlled. The enforcement of current food safety laws in the Sultanate of Oman is shared across various government agencies. Consequently, there is a need to harmonize all regulatory requirements, enhancing the domestic food protection and to continue to work towards a fully risk-based approach in order to compete successfully in the global market.

Empirical applications of economic principles in producer price index analysis

The research analyses economic linkages of producer price indices of the construction industry in Australia and relationships between construction and house prices. A range of econometric techniques are applied to analyse construction and house prices. The economic equilibrium and dynamic relationships among regional markets are investigated based on producer price index analysis.

Investigating relationships of construction prices in Australia using cointegration analysis

Research on construction prices is significant for contractors and traders. A comprehensive understanding of construction prices may influence crucial decisions in business operation and arbitrage activities. This study focuses on the cointegration relationships of regional construction prices in Australia by using a range of econometric techniques including the stationarity test, the Engle-Granger cointegration approach examines the long run equilibrium relationships within the regional markets, and the error correction models explore the short run disequilibrium relationships. Finds of this study reveal that the economic system in which the construction industry participants operate is characterized by a highly competitive, integrated marketplace, Especially in Melbourne and Sydney. But exclude Northern Territory and Queensland. Furthermore, the results of long term relationships estimation suggest that there are 15 pairs of regional construction prices have long term equilibrium relationships. Additionally, the causalities and diffusion among the construction price indices in six states and two territories of Australia are estimated in this study. These outcomes suggest that causal links between regions mainly exist among adjoining states.

An economic analysis of construction industries producer prices in Australia

Research on construction prices is significant for contractors and traders. A comprehensive understanding of construction prices may influence crucial decisions in business operation and arbitrage activities. This study focuses on the cointegration relationships of regional construction prices in Australia by using a range of econometric techniques including the stationarity test, the Engle-Granger cointegration approach and error correction model. The cointegration relationships amongst the regional construction prices are detected in this study. The application of the Engle-Granger cointegration approach examines the long run equilibrium relationships within the regional markets, and the error correction models explore the short run disequilibrium relationships. Results of this study suggest that the economic system in which construction industry participants operate is characterised by a highly competitive integrated marketplace. Furthermore, the causalities and diffusion patterns among the construction price indices in six states and two territories of Australia are drawn by the cointegration analysis. These outcomes reveal a pattern of diffusion paths and network linkages among the six states and two territories, and then expose the regional price linkages.