Future change of precipitation extremes in Europe: intercomparison of scenarios from regional climate mode

An analysis of the climate of precipitation extremes as simulated by six European regional climate models (RCMs) is undertaken in order to describe/quantify future changes and to examine/interpret differences between models. Each model has adopted boundary conditions from the same ensemble of global climate model integrations for present (1961–1990) and future (2071–2100) climate under the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change A2 emission scenario. The main diagnostics are multiyear return values of daily precipitation totals estimated from extreme value analysis. An evaluation of the RCMs against observations in the Alpine region shows that model biases for extremes are comparable to or even smaller than those for wet day intensity and mean precipitation. In winter, precipitation extremes tend to increase north of about 45°N, while there is an insignificant change or a decrease to the south. In northern Europe the 20-year return value of future climate corresponds to the 40- to 100-year return value of present climate. There is a good agreement between the RCMs, and the simulated change is similar to a scaling of present-day extremes by the change in average events. In contrast, there are large model differences in summer when RCM formulation contributes significantly to scenario uncertainty. The model differences are well explained by differences in the precipitation frequency and intensity process, but in all models, extremes increase more or decrease less than would be expected from the scaling of present-day extremes. There is evidence for a component of the change that affects extremes specifically and is consistent between models despite the large variation in the total response.

The application of Regional Climate Model output for the simulation of high-mountain permafrost scenarios

This study investigates the possibilities and limitations of using Regional Climate Model (RCM) output for the simulation of alpine permafrost scenarios. It focuses on the general problem of scale mismatch between RCMs and impact models and, in particular, the special challenges that arise when driving an impact model in topographically complex high-mountain environments with the output of an RCM. Two approaches are introduced that take into account the special difficulties in such areas, and thus enable the use of RCM for alpine permafrost scenario modelling. Intended as an initial example, they are applied at the area of Corvatsch (Upper Engadine, Switzerland) in order to demonstrate and discuss the application of the two approaches, rather than to provide an assessment of future changes in permafrost occurrence. There are still many uncertainties and inaccuracies inherent in climate and impact models, which increase when driving one model with the output of the other. Nevertheless, our study shows that the use of RCMs offers new and promising perspectives for the simulation of high-mountain permafrost scenarios

Future change of climate in South America in the late twenty-first century: intercomparison of scenarios from three regional climate models

Regional climate change projections for the last half of the twenty-first century have been produced for South America, as part of the CREAS (Cenarios REgionalizados de Clima Futuro da America do Sul) regional project. Three regional climate models RCMs (Eta CCS, RegCM3 and HadRM3P) were nested within the HadAM3P global model. The simulations cover a 30-year period representing present climate (1961-1990) and projections for the IPCC A2 high emission scenario for 2071-2100. The focus was on the changes in the mean circulation and surface variables, in particular, surface air temperature and precipitation. There is a consistent pattern of changes in circulation, rainfall and temperatures as depicted by the three models. The HadRM3P shows intensification and a more southward position of the subtropical Pacific high, while a pattern of intensification/weakening during summer/winter is projected by the Eta CCS/RegCM3. There is a tendency for a weakening of the subtropical westerly jet from the Eta CCS and HadRM3P, consistent with other studies. There are indications that regions such of Northeast Brazil and central-eastern and southern Amazonia may experience rainfall deficiency in the future, while the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador and northern Argentina may experience rainfall excesses in a warmer future, and these changes may vary with the seasons. The three models show warming in the A2 scenario stronger in the tropical region, especially in the 5A degrees N-15A degrees S band, both in summer and especially in winter, reaching up to 6-8A degrees C warmer than in the present. In southern South America, the warming in summer varies between 2 and 4A degrees C and in winter between 3 and 5A degrees C in the same region from the 3 models. These changes are consistent with changes in low level circulation from the models, and they are comparable with changes in rainfall and temperature extremes reported elsewhere. In summary, some aspects of projected future climate change are quite robust across this set of model runs for some regions, as the Northwest coast of Peru-Ecuador, northern Argentina, Eastern Amazonia and Northeast Brazil, whereas for other regions they are less robust as in Pantanal region of West Central and southeastern Brazil.

Glacier shrinkage and climatic change in the Russian Altai from the mid-20th century: An assessment using remote sensing and PRECIS regional climate model

This paper examines changes in the surface area of glaciers in the North and South Chuya Ridges, Altai Mountains in 1952-2004 and their links with regional climatic variations. The glacier surface areas for 2004 were derived from the Advanced Spaceborne Thermal Emission and Reflection Radiometer (ASTER) imagery. Data from the World Glacier Inventory (WGI)dating to 1952 and aerial photographs from 1952 were used to estimate the changes. 256 glaciers with a combined area of 253±5.1 km2 have been identified in the region in 2004. Estimation of changes in extent of 126 glaciers with the individual areas not less than 0.5 km2 in 1952 revealed a 19.7±5.8% reduction. The observed glacier retreat is primarily driven by an increase in summer temperatures since the 1980s when air temperatures were increasing at a rate of 0.10 - 0.13oC a-1 at the glacier tongue elevation. The regional climate projections for A2 and B2 CO2 emission scenarios developed using PRECIS regional climate model indicate that summer temperatures will increase in the Altai in 2071-2100 by 6-7oC and 3-5oC respectively in comparison with 1961-1990 while annual precipitation will increase by 15% and 5%. The length of the ablation season will extend from June-August to the late April – early October. The projected increases in precipitation will not compensate for the projected warming and glaciers will continue to retreat in the 21st century under both B2 and A2 scenarios.

A comparison of extreme European daily precipitation simulated by a global and a regional climate model for present and future climates

The intensity and distribution of daily precipitation is predicted to change under scenarios of increased greenhouse gases (GHGs). In this paper, we analyse the ability of HadCM2, a general circulation model (GCM), and a high-resolution regional climate model (RCM), both developed at the Met Office's Hadley Centre, to simulate extreme daily precipitation by reference to observations. A detailed analysis of daily precipitation is made at two UK grid boxes, where probabilities of reaching daily thresholds in the GCM and RCM are compared with observations. We find that the RCM generally overpredicts probabilities of extreme daily precipitation but that, when the GCM and RCM simulated values are scaled to have the same mean as the observations, the RCM captures the upper-tail distribution more realistically. To compare regional changes in daily precipitation in the GHG-forced period 2080-2100 in the GCM and the RCM, we develop two methods. The first considers the fractional changes in probability of local daily precipitation reaching or exceeding a fixed 15 mm threshold in the anomaly climate compared with the control. The second method uses the upper one-percentile of the control at each point as the threshold. Agreement between the models is better in both seasons with the latter method, which we suggest may be more useful when considering larger scale spatial changes. On average, the probability of precipitation exceeding the 1% threshold increases by a factor of 2.5 (GCM and RCM) in winter and by I .7 (GCM) or 1.3 (RCM) in summer.

Evaluation of regional climate simulations for air quality modelling purposes

In order to evaluate the future potential benefits of emission regulation on regional air quality, while taking into account the effects of climate change, off-line air quality projection simulations are driven using weather forcing taken from regional climate models. These regional models are themselves driven by simulations carried out using global climate models (GCM) and economical scenarios. Uncertainties and biases in climate models introduce an additional “climate modeling” source of uncertainty that is to be added to all other types of uncertainties in air quality modeling for policy evaluation. In this article we evaluate the changes in air quality-related weather variables induced by replacing reanalyses-forced by GCM-forced regional climate simulations. As an example we use GCM simulations carried out in the framework of the ERA-interim programme and of the CMIP5 project using the Institut Pierre-Simon Laplace climate model (IPSLcm), driving regional simulations performed in the framework of the EURO-CORDEX programme. In summer, we found compensating deficiencies acting on photochemistry: an overestimation by GCM-driven weather due to a positive bias in short-wave radiation, a negative bias in wind speed, too many stagnant episodes, and a negative temperature bias. In winter, air quality is mostly driven by dispersion, and we could not identify significant differences in either wind or planetary boundary layer height statistics between GCM-driven and reanalyses-driven regional simulations. However, precipitation appears largely overestimated in GCM-driven simulations, which could significantly affect the simulation of aerosol concentrations. The identification of these biases will help interpreting results of future air quality simulations using these data. Despite these, we conclude that the identified differences should not lead to major difficulties in using GCM-driven regional climate simulations for air quality projections.

Regional climate impacts of a possible future grand solar minimum

Any reduction in global mean near-surface temperature due to a future decline in solar activity is likely to be a small fraction of projected anthropogenic warming. However, variability in ultraviolet solar irradiance is linked to modulation of the Arctic and North Atlantic Oscillations, suggesting the potential for larger regional surface climate effects. Here, we explore possible impacts through two experiments designed to bracket uncertainty in ultraviolet irradiance in a scenario in which future solar activity decreases to Maunder Minimum-like conditions by 2050. Both experiments show regional structure in the wintertime response, resembling the North Atlantic Oscillation, with enhanced relative cooling over northern Eurasia and the eastern United States. For a high-end decline in solar ultraviolet irradiance, the impact on winter northern European surface temperatures over the late twenty-first century could be a significant fraction of the difference in climate change between plausible AR5 scenarios of greenhouse gas concentrations.

Regional Climate Modelling In The Caribbean

The information here represents a compilation of existing and ongoing regional and national climate modelling studies that could be useful in the execution of the regional project The Economics of Climate Change in Caribbean. The report is mainly focused on the sustainable regional efforts that represent opportunities for further developments in climate change scenarios. It describes the different techniques that have been used to model changes in temperature and precipitation in the Caribbean and compares the outputs of these models. Essentially, temperatures are expected to increase while precipitation may increase for countries in the more southerly latitudes, but decrease for more northerly countries (Bahamas, Cuba and Hispaniola) resulting in drought. These changes would present tremendous challenges for the Caribbean subregion and, despite significant progress made in recent years, there is a need for continuous development of climate research and modelling in the subregion, to produce more relevant information for regional and national studies and to overcome the limitations of existing results. This may well be realized through coordination of activities between the Caribbean Community Climate Change Centre (CCCCC), the Institute of Meteorology (INSMET) in Cuba and the University of the West Indies (UWI). These activities will address the implementation of further analyses using available information to generate best practices and to produce useful results. There are also new opportunities for climate research in the region with Coordinated Regional Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) which is planned to start early next year. It is expected that the participation of various Caribbean institutions like INSMET, UWI, CCCC and the Caribbean Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology in this global project will allow the generation of new and more abundant information.

Atlantic hurricanes and associated insurance loss potentials in future climate scenarios: limitations of high-resolution AGCM simulations

Potential future changes in tropical cyclone (TC) characteristics are among the more serious regional threats of global climate change. Therefore, a better understanding of how anthropogenic climate change may affect TCs and how these changes translate in socio-economic impacts is required. Here, we apply a TC detection and tracking method that was developed for ERA-40 data to time-slice experiments of two atmospheric general circulation models, namely the fifth version of the European Centre model of Hamburg model (MPI, Hamburg, Germany, T213) and the Japan Meteorological Agency/ Meteorological research Institute model (MRI, Tsukuba city, Japan, TL959). For each model, two climate simulations are available: a control simulation for present-day conditions to evaluate the model against observations, and a scenario simulation to assess future changes. The evaluation of the control simulations shows that the number of intense storms is underestimated due to the model resolution. To overcome this deficiency, simulated cyclone intensities are scaled to the best track data leading to a better representation of the TC intensities. Both models project an increased number of major hurricanes and modified trajectories in their scenario simulations. These changes have an effect on the projected loss potentials. However, these state-of-the-art models still yield contradicting results, and therefore they are not yet suitable to provide robust estimates of losses due to uncertainties in simulated hurricane intensity, location and frequency.

Impacts of projected maximum temperature extremes for C21 by an ensemble of regional climate models on cereal cropping systems in the Iberian Peninsula

Crops growing in the Iberian Peninsula may be subjected to damagingly high temperatures during the sensitive development periods of flowering and grain filling. Such episodes are considered important hazards and farmers may take insurance to offset their impact. Increases in value and frequency of maximum temperature have been observed in the Iberian Peninsula during the 20th century, and studies on climate change indicate the possibility of further increase by the end of the 21st century. Here, impacts of current and future high temperatures on cereal cropping systems of the Iberian Peninsula are evaluated, focusing on vulnerable development periods of winter and summer crops. Climate change scenarios obtained from an ensemble of ten Regional Climate Models (multimodel ensemble) combined with crop simulation models were used for this purpose and related uncertainty was estimated. Results reveal that higher extremes of maximum temperature represent a threat to summer-grown but not to winter-grown crops in the Iberian Peninsula. The study highlights the different vulnerability of crops in the two growing seasons and the need to account for changes in extreme temperatures in developing adaptations in cereal cropping systems. Finally, this work contributes to clarifying the causes of high-uncertainty impact projections from previous studies.

Regional climate change impacts on wild animals' living territory in Central Europe

In this paper the projected future impact of climate change has been analyzed for the quality of living conditions of the European terrestrial vertebrates (amphibians, reptiles, birds, mammals) in the Carpathian Basin. According to the climate scenarios, warmer and drier climatic conditions are likely to occur in the Carpathian Basin by end of this century. Simultaneous analysis of climate parameters, climate simulations and animal range datasets enables us to evaluate the vulnerability of different European species to regional warming and climate change. The spatial climate analogy technique is used to analyze the estimated rapid change of the wild animals’ habitats and their northward migration. For the reference climate data of Debrecen is considered, and three spatial analogue regions are compared. The results suggest that generally a significant decline in habitats is very likely for most of the analyzed animal groups by the end of the 21st century. The largest rate of decline is estimated for birds. However, living conditions for reptiles may improve in the future due to the warmer and drier climatic conditions, which are favourable for these species.

Moisture recycling in the Iberian Peninsula from a regional climate simulation: spatiotemporal analysis and impact on the precipitation regime

The contribution of the evapotranspiration from a certain region to the precipitation over the same area is referred to as water recycling. In this paper, we explore the spatiotemporal links between the recycling mechanism and the Iberian rainfall regime. We use a 9 km resolution Weather Research and Forecasting simulation of 18 years (1990-2007) to compute local and regional recycling ratios over Iberia, at the monthly scale, through both an analytical and a numerical recycling model. In contrast to coastal areas, the interior of Iberia experiences a relative maximum of precipitation in spring, suggesting a prominent role of land-atmosphere interactions on the inland precipitation regime during this period of the year. Local recycling ratios are the highest in spring and early summer, coinciding with those areas where this spring peak of rainfall represents the absolute maximum in the annual cycle. This confirms that recycling processes are crucial to explain the Iberian spring precipitation, particularly over the eastern and northeastern sectors. Average monthly recycling values range from 0.04 in December to 0.14 in June according to the numerical model and from 0.03 in December to 0.07 in May according to the analytical procedure. Our analysis shows that the highest values of recycling are limited by the coexistence of two necessary mechanisms: (1) the availability of sufficient soil moisture and (2) the occurrence of appropriate synoptic configurations favoring the development of convective regimes. The analyzed surplus of rainfall in spring has a critical impact on agriculture over large semiarid regions of the interior of Iberia.

Assessment of the ensembles regional climate models in the representation of precipitation variability and extremes over Portugal

A new data set of daily gridded observations of precipitation, computed from over 400 stations in Portugal, is used to assess the performance of 12 regional climate models at 25 km resolution, from the ENSEMBLES set, all forced by ERA-40 boundary conditions, for the 1961-2000 period. Standard point error statistics, calculated from grid point and basin aggregated data, and precipitation related climate indices are used to analyze the performance of the different models in representing the main spatial and temporal features of the regional climate, and its extreme events. As a whole, the ENSEMBLES models are found to achieve a good representation of those features, with good spatial correlations with observations. There is a small but relevant negative bias in precipitation, especially in the driest months, leading to systematic errors in related climate indices. The underprediction of precipitation occurs in most percentiles, although this deficiency is partially corrected at the basin level. Interestingly, some of the conclusions concerning the performance of the models are different of what has been found for the contiguous territory of Spain; in particular, ENSEMBLES models appear too dry over Portugal and too wet over Spain. Finally, models behave quite differently in the simulation of some important aspects of local climate, from the mean climatology to high precipitation regimes in localized mountain ranges and in the subsequent drier regions.

Assessment of touristical-recreation potential of Georgia on background regional climate change

The determination of the climatic potential of tourism to Tbilisi (the capital of Georgia) into the correspondence with that frequently utilized in other countries of the “tourism climate index” is carried out.