On the Recursive Estimation of the Location and of the Size of the Mode of a Probability Density

2000 Mathematics Subject Classification: 62G07, 62L20.

H(infinity) filtering for rectangular discrete-time descriptor systems

This paper deals with the H(infinity) recursive estimation problem for general rectangular time-variant descriptor systems in discrete time. Riccati-equation based recursions for filtered and predicted estimates are developed based on a data fitting approach and game theory. In this approach, the nature determines a state sequence seeking to maximize the estimation cost, whereas the estimator tries to find an estimate that brings the estimation cost to a minimum. A solution exists for a specified gamma-level if the resulting cost is positive. In order to present some computational alternatives to the H(infinity) filters developed, they are rewritten in information form along with the respective array algorithms. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Stochastic stability analysis for the constant-modulus algorithm

We derive an easy-to-compute approximate bound for the range of step-sizes for which the constant-modulus algorithm (CMA) will remain stable if initialized close to a minimum of the CM cost function. Our model highlights the influence, of the signal constellation used in the transmission system: for smaller variation in the modulus of the transmitted symbols, the algorithm will be more robust, and the steady-state misadjustment will be smaller. The theoretical results are validated through several simulations, for long and short filters and channels.

Improving the tracking capability of adaptive filters via convex combination

As is well known, Hessian-based adaptive filters (such as the recursive-least squares algorithm (RLS) for supervised adaptive filtering, or the Shalvi-Weinstein algorithm (SWA) for blind equalization) converge much faster than gradient-based algorithms [such as the least-mean-squares algorithm (LMS) or the constant-modulus algorithm (CMA)]. However, when the problem is tracking a time-variant filter, the issue is not so clear-cut: there are environments for which each family presents better performance. Given this, we propose the use of a convex combination of algorithms of different families to obtain an algorithm with superior tracking capability. We show the potential of this combination and provide a unified theoretical model for the steady-state excess mean-square error for convex combinations of gradient- and Hessian-based algorithms, assuming a random-walk model for the parameter variations. The proposed model is valid for algorithms of the same or different families, and for supervised (LMS and RLS) or blind (CMA and SWA) algorithms.

Structural time series models and the Kalman filter: A concise review

The continued increase in availability of economic data in recent years and, more importantly, the possibility to construct larger frequency time series, have fostered the use (and development) of statistical and econometric techniques to treat them more accurately. This paper presents an exposition of structural time series models by which a time series can be decomposed as the sum of a trend, seasonal and irregular components. In addition to a detailled analysis of univariate speci fications we also address the SUTSE multivariate case and the issue of cointegration. Finally, the recursive estimation and smoothing by means of the Kalman filter algorithm is described taking into account its different stages, from initialisation to parameter s estimation.

Métodos estatísticos recursivos aplicados ao problema de estimação de vazão de gás em plantas de Plunger-lift

This work has as main objective to find mathematical models based on linear parametric estimation techniques applied to the problem of calculating the grow of gas in oil wells. In particular we focus on achieving grow models applied to the case of wells that produce by plunger-lift technique on oil rigs, in which case, there are high peaks in the grow values that hinder their direct measurement by instruments. For this, we have developed estimators based on recursive least squares and make an analysis of statistical measures such as autocorrelation, cross-correlation, variogram and the cumulative periodogram, which are calculated recursively as data are obtained in real time from the plant in operation; the values obtained for these measures tell us how accurate the used model is and how it can be changed to better fit the measured values. The models have been tested in a pilot plant which emulates the process gas production in oil wells

Design of a GNSS receiver for the ESEO mission

This thesis was carried out inside the ESA's ESEO mission and focus in the design of one of the secondary payloads carried on board the spacecraft: a GNSS receiver for orbit determination. The purpose of this project is to test the technology of the orbit determination in real time applications by using commercial components. The architecture of the receiver includes a custom part, the navigation computer, and a commercial part, the front-end, from Novatel, with COCOM limitation removed, and a GNSS antenna. This choice is motivated by the goal of demonstrating the correct operations in orbit, enabling a widespread use of this technology while lowering the cost and time of the device’s assembly. The commercial front-end performs GNSS signal acquisition, tracking and data demodulation and provides raw GNSS data to the custom computer. This computer processes this raw observables, that will be both transferred to the On-Board Computer and then transmitted to Earth and provided as input to the recursive estimation filter on-board, in order to obtain an accurate positioning of the spacecraft, using the dynamic model. The main purpose of this thesis, is the detailed design and development of the mentioned GNSS receiver up to the ESEO project Critical Design Review, including requirements definition, hardware design and breadboard preliminary test phase design.

Adaptive control of sinusoidal brushless DC motor actuators

Electrical Power Assisted Steering system (EPAS) will likely be used on future automotive power steering systems. The sinusoidal brushless DC (BLDC) motor has been identified as one of the most suitable actuators for the EPAS application. Motor characteristic variations, which can be indicated by variations of the motor parameters such as the coil resistance and the torque constant, directly impart inaccuracies in the control scheme based on the nominal values of parameters and thus the whole system performance suffers. The motor controller must address the time-varying motor characteristics problem and maintain the performance in its long service life. In this dissertation, four adaptive control algorithms for brushless DC (BLDC) motors are explored. The first algorithm engages a simplified inverse dq-coordinate dynamics controller and solves for the parameter errors with the q-axis current (iq) feedback from several past sampling steps. The controller parameter values are updated by slow integration of the parameter errors. Improvement such as dynamic approximation, speed approximation and Gram-Schmidt orthonormalization are discussed for better estimation performance. The second algorithm is proposed to use both the d-axis current (id) and the q-axis current (iq) feedback for parameter estimation since id always accompanies iq. Stochastic conditions for unbiased estimation are shown through Monte Carlo simulations. Study of the first two adaptive algorithms indicates that the parameter estimation performance can be achieved by using more history data. The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF), a representative recursive estimation algorithm, is then investigated for the BLDC motor application. Simulation results validated the superior estimation performance with the EKF. However, the computation complexity and stability may be barriers for practical implementation of the EKF. The fourth algorithm is a model reference adaptive control (MRAC) that utilizes the desired motor characteristics as a reference model. Its stability is guaranteed by Lyapunov’s direct method. Simulation shows superior performance in terms of the convergence speed and current tracking. These algorithms are compared in closed loop simulation with an EPAS model and a motor speed control application. The MRAC is identified as the most promising candidate controller because of its combination of superior performance and low computational complexity. A BLDC motor controller developed with the dq-coordinate model cannot be implemented without several supplemental functions such as the coordinate transformation and a DC-to-AC current encoding scheme. A quasi-physical BLDC motor model is developed to study the practical implementation issues of the dq-coordinate control strategy, such as the initialization and rotor angle transducer resolution. This model can also be beneficial during first stage development in automotive BLDC motor applications.

Did quantitative easing affect interest rates outside the US? New evidence based on interest rate differentials. CEPS Working Document No. 416/January 2016

This paper explores the effects of non-standard monetary policies on international yield relationships. Based on a descriptive analysis of international long-term yields, we find evidence that long-term rates followed a global downward trend prior to as well as during the financial crisis. Comparing interest rate developments in the US and the eurozone, it is difficult to detect a distinct impact of the first round of the Fed’s quantitative easing programme (QE1) on US interest rates for which the global environment – the global downward trend in interest rates – does not account. Motivated by these findings, we analyse the impact of the Fed’s QE1 programme on the stability of the US-euro long-term interest rate relationship by using a CVAR (cointegrated vector autoregressive) model and, in particular, recursive estimation methods. Using data gathered between 2002 and 2014, we find limited evidence that QE1 caused the break-up or destabilised the transatlantic interest rate relationship. Taking global interest rate developments into account, we thus find no significant evidence that QE had any independent, distinct impact on US interest rates.

Do ethics imply persistence? The case of Islamic and socially responsible funds

We analyse the performance persistence of Islamic and Socially Responsible Investment (SRI) mutual funds. We adopt a multi-stage strategy in which, in the first stage, partial frontiers’ approaches are considered to measure the performance of the different funds in the sample. In the second stage, the results yielded by the partial frontiers are plugged into different investment strategies based on a recursive estimation methodology whose persistence performance is evaluated in the third stage of the analysis. Results indicate that, for both types of funds, performance persistence actually exists, but only for the worst and, most notably, best funds. This result is robust not only across methods (and different choices of tuning parameters within each method) but also across both SRI and Islamic funds—although in the case of the latter persistence was stronger for the best funds. The persistence of SRI and Islamic funds represents an important result for investors and the market, since it provides information on both which funds to invest in and which funds to avoid. Last but not least, the use of the aforementioned techniques in the context of mutual funds could also be of interest for the non-conclusive literature.

Recursive linear estimation for general discrete-time descriptor systems

This paper considers the optimal linear estimates recursion problem for discrete-time linear systems in its more general formulation. The system is allowed to be in descriptor form, rectangular, time-variant, and with the dynamical and measurement noises correlated. We propose a new expression for the filter recursive equations which presents an interesting simple and symmetric structure. Convergence of the associated Riccati recursion and stability properties of the steady-state filter are provided. (C) 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Distributed Estimation Over an Adaptive Incremental Network Based on the Affine Projection Algorithm

We study the problem of distributed estimation based on the affine projection algorithm (APA), which is developed from Newton`s method for minimizing a cost function. The proposed solution is formulated to ameliorate the limited convergence properties of least-mean-square (LMS) type distributed adaptive filters with colored inputs. The analysis of transient and steady-state performances at each individual node within the network is developed by using a weighted spatial-temporal energy conservation relation and confirmed by computer simulations. The simulation results also verify that the proposed algorithm provides not only a faster convergence rate but also an improved steady-state performance as compared to an LMS-based scheme. In addition, the new approach attains an acceptable misadjustment performance with lower computational and memory cost, provided the number of regressor vectors and filter length parameters are appropriately chosen, as compared to a distributed recursive-least-squares (RLS) based method.

Recursive neuro fuzzy techniques for online identification and control

Dissertação para obtenção do Grau de Mestre em Engenharia Electrotécnica e de Computadores

Sequential estimation of multipath MIMO-OFDM channels

Wireless “MIMO” systems, employing multiple transmit and receive antennas, promise a significant increase of channel capacity, while orthogonal frequency-division multiplexing (OFDM) is attracting a good deal of attention due to its robustness to multipath fading. Thus, the combination of both techniques is an attractive proposition for radio transmission. The goal of this paper is the description and analysis of a new and novel pilot-aided estimator of multipath block-fading channels. Typical models leading to estimation algorithms assume the number of multipath components and delays to be constant (and often known), while their amplitudes are allowed to vary with time. Our estimator is focused instead on the more realistic assumption that the number of channel taps is also unknown and varies with time following a known probabilistic model. The estimation problem arising from these assumptions is solved using Random-Set Theory (RST), whereby one regards the multipath-channel response as a single set-valued random entity.Within this framework, Bayesian recursive equations determine the evolution with time of the channel estimator. Due to the lack of a closed form for the solution of Bayesian equations, a (Rao–Blackwellized) particle filter (RBPF) implementation ofthe channel estimator is advocated. Since the resulting estimator exhibits a complexity which grows exponentially with the number of multipath components, a simplified version is also introduced. Simulation results describing the performance of our channel estimator demonstrate its effectiveness.

An on-line algorithm of uncertain time delay estimation in a continuous system

In this paper, we present an on-line estimation algorithm for an uncertain time delay in a continuous system based on the observational input-output data, subject to observational noise. The first order Pade approximation is used to approximate the time delay. At each time step, the algorithm combines the well known Kalman filter algorithm and the recursive instrumental variable least squares (RIVLS) algorithm in cascade form. The instrumental variable least squares algorithm is used in order to achieve the consistency of the delay parameter estimate, since an error-in-the-variable model is involved. An illustrative example is utilized to demonstrate the efficacy of the proposed approach.