Residual venous obstruction, alone and in combination with D-dimer, as a risk factor for recurrence after anticoagulation withdrawal following a first idiopathic deep vein thrombosis in the prolong study.

OBJECTIVE: This study aims to assess the predictive value of residual venous obstruction (RVO) for recurrent venous thrombo-embolism (VTE) in a study using D-dimer to predict outcome. DESIGN: This is a multicentre randomised open-label study. METHODS: Patients with a first episode of idiopathic VTE were enrolled on the day of anticoagulation discontinuation when RVO was determined by compression ultrasonography in those with proximal deep vein thrombosis (DVT) of the lower limbs. D-dimer was measured after 1 month. Patients with normal D-dimer did not resume anticoagulation while patients with abnormal D-dimer were randomised to resume anticoagulation or not. The primary outcome measure was recurrent VTE over an 18-month follow-up. RESULTS: A total of 490 DVT patients were analysed (after excluding 19 for different reasons and 118 for isolated pulmonary embolism (PE)). Recurrent DVT occurred in 19% (19/99) of patients with abnormal D-dimer who did not resume anticoagulation and 10% (31/310) in subjects with normal D-dimer (adjusted hazard ratio: 2.1; p = 0.02). Recurrences were similar in subjects either with (11%, 17/151) or without RVO (13%, 32/246). Recurrent DVT rates were also similar for normal D-dimer, with or without RVO, and for abnormal D-dimer, with or without RVO. CONCLUSIONS: Elevated D-dimer at 1 month after anticoagulation withdrawal is a risk factor for recurrence, while RVO at the time of anticoagulation withdrawal is not.

Risk factors for postoperative endoscopic recurrence in Crohn's disease: a Brazilian observational study

Introduction: Postoperative endoscopic recurrence (PER) is the initial event after intestinal resection in Crohn’s disease (CD), and after a few years most patients present with progressive symptoms and complications related to the disease. The identification of risk factors for PER can help in the optimization of postoperative therapy and contribute to its prevention. Methods: Retrospective, longitudinal, multicenter, observational study involving patients with CD who underwent ileocolic resections. The patients were allocated into two groups according to the presence of PER and the variables of interest were analyzed to identify the associated factors for recurrence. Results: Eighty-five patients were included in the study. The mean period of the first postoperative colonoscopy was 12.8 (3–120) months and PER was observed in 28 patients (32.9%). There was no statistical difference in relation to gender, mean age, duration of CD, family history, previous intestinal resections, smoking, Montreal classification, blood transfusion, residual CD, surgical technique, postoperative complications, presence of granulomas at histology, specimen extension and use of postoperative biological therapy. The preoperative use of corticosteroids was the only variable that showed a significant difference between the groups in univariate analysis, being more common in patients with PER (42.8% vs. 21%; p = 0.044). Conclusions: PER was observed in 32.9% of the patients. The preoperative use of corticosteroids was the only risk factor associated with PER in this observational analysis.

Major depression: does gender influence the risk of recurrence? A systematic review

Background and Objectives: A woman's lifetime risk of major depression is almost twice as high as that of a man. Major depression is associated with a high risk of recurrence, but the question of a differential risk of recurrence between genders is unclear. Based on a systematic review of the literature, this paper attempts to answer the following question: "Following a major depressive episode, do women and men have the same risk of recurrence?". Methods: We prospectively collected all studies from the period 2005-2014 where the variable gender was considered a potential predictor of recurrence. The database has also been expanded with articles cited in the bibliography of the prospectively collected articles and with a PubMed Database search covering the period January 2005-August 2014. Results: Of the prospective studies (n = 98), most found no influence of gender on recurrence risk, but a minority, mostly large sample studies, found that female gender is a statistically significant risk factor for recurrence. Results suggest a probable female-to-male relative risk of recurrence between 1.0 and 1.2. Given the heterogeneity of the studies (length of follow-up, populations, nature of the studies, choice of dependant variables, statistical methods, and available data) no meta-analyses were performed. There are many interfering variables (age of onset, subchronic evolution, treatments, etc.) that can influence the results of prospective studies. Conclusions: Women probably have a slightly higher risk of recurrence after a major depressive episode than men. This increased risk is much smaller than women's much higher lifetime risk of depression.

Role for postoperative cortisol response to desmopressin in predicting the risk for recurrent Cushing`s disease

In the early postoperative period of Cushing`s disease patients, desmopressin may stimulate ACTH secretion in the remnant corticotrophic tumour, but not in nontumour suppressed cells. Objective The aim of this study is to evaluate the serum cortisol responses to desmopressin after pituitary surgery, establishing an optimal cut-off for absolute increment (Delta) of serum cortisol (F) suitable to predict recurrence risk. Design Retrospective case record study. Patients Fifty-seven Cushing`s disease patients submitted to pituitary surgery and desmopressin stimulation in the early postoperative with a long-term follow-up (20-161 months) were studied. Methods and measurements Serum cortisol levels after desmopressin test (10 mu g IV) 15-30 days after adenomectomy were used to determine Delta F (absolute increment of F: F peak - F baseline). Sensitivity and specificity of Delta F were calculated and a ROC curve was performed to establish an optimal cut-off for Delta F to predict recurrence risk. Results Fifteen patients had immediate postoperative failure (basal F > 165 nmol/l; 6 mu g/dl) and one patient was lost during the follow-up. Forty-one patients achieved initial remission and were followed-up. Five of 11 patients who recurred had Delta F > 193 nmol/l (7 mu g/dl), but none of 30 patients who remained in prolonged remission showed Delta F > 193 nmol/l after postoperative desmopressin stimulation. Conclusions Persistence of cortisol response (Delta F > 193 nmol/l) to desmopressin in the early postoperative period can help to identify Cushing`s disease patients with initial remission who present risk for later recurrence.

Predictive factors for local recurrence and incomplete resection of early gastric cancer treated by endoscopic resection: A Western experience

BACKGROUND: Early gastric cancer (EGC) is defined as adenocarcinoma limited to the mucosa or submucosa regardless of lymph node involvement. Local EGC recurrence rates have been described ill Lip to 6% of cases. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate predictive factors for incomplete resection and local recurrence of EGC treated by endoscopic mucosal resection (EMR) that was followed up for at least one year. METHODS: From June 1994 to December 2005, 46 patients with EGC underwent EMR. Possible predictive factors for incomplete endoscopic resection and local recurrence were identified by medical chart analysis. Demographic, endoscopic and histopathological data were retrospectively evaluated. EMR was considered complete or incomplete. Patients from the complete resection group were divided into subgroups (with and without local EGC recurrence). RESULTS: Complete resection was possible in 36 cases (76.6%). Predictive factors for incomplete resection were turnout location (P=0.035), histological type (P=0.021), lesion size (P=0.022) and number of resected fragments (P=0.013). On multivariate analysis, undifferentiated histological type (OR 0.8; 95% Cl 0.036 to 0.897) and number of resected fragments (OR 7.34; 95% Cl 1.266 to 42.629) were independent predictive factors for incomplete resection. In the complete resection group, a larger lesion size was associated with a higher the number of resected fragments (P=0.018). Local recurrence occurred in nine cases (25%). Use of the cap technique was the only predictive factor for local recurrence in five of seven cases (71.4%) (P=0.006). CONCLUSIONS: A larger lesion size was associated with a higher number of resected fragments. Undifferentiated adenocarcinoma and piecemeal resection were predictive factors for incomplete resection. Technique type was a predictive factor for local EGC recurrence.

Sentinel lymph node involvement and a high Breslow index are independent factors of risk for early relapse of melanoma.

AIM: The clinical relevance of sentinel lymph node (SLN) analysis was evaluated prospectively and compared with other known risk factors of relapse in early stage melanoma. METHODS: Surgery was guided by lymphoscintigraphy, blue dye and gamma probe detection. SLN were analysed by haematoxylin eosin (HE) histochemistry and multimarker immunohistochemistry (IHC). Disease free survival (DFS) was evaluated with Kaplan-Meier plots according to different parameters and Cox analyses of variance. RESULTS: From 210 patients a total of 381 SLN were excised. Lymphoscintigraphy identified all excised SLN with only 2 false positive lymphatic lakes. Fifty patients (24%) had tumour positive SLN. With a mean follow-up of 31.3 months, 29 tumour recurrences were observed, 19 (38%) in 50 SLN positive and 10 (6%) in 160 SLN negative patients. Strong predictive factors for early relapse (p < 0.0005) were SLN positivity and a high Breslow index. CONCLUSION: SLN tumour positivity is an independent factor of high risk for early relapse with a higher power of discrimination than the Breslow index.

Pattern of recurrence of early breast cancer is different according to intrinsic subtype and proliferation index.

INTRODUCTION Recurrence risk in breast cancer varies throughout the follow-up time. We examined if these changes are related to the level of expression of the proliferation pathway and intrinsic subtypes. METHODS Expression of estrogen and progesterone receptor, Ki-67, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 (HER2), epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) and cytokeratin 5/6 (CK 5/6) was performed on tissue-microarrays constructed from a large and uniformly managed series of early breast cancer patients (N = 1,249). Subtype definitions by four biomarkers were as follows: luminal A (ER + and/or PR+, HER2-, Ki-67 <14), luminal B (ER + and/or PR+, HER2-, Ki-67 ≥14), HER2-enriched (any ER, any PR, HER2+, any Ki-67), triple-negative (ER-, PR-, HER2-, any Ki-67). Subtype definitions by six biomarkers were as follows: luminal A (ER + and/or PR+, HER2-, Ki-67 <14, any CK 5/6, any EGFR), luminal B (ER + and/or PR+, HER2-, Ki-67 ≥14, any CK 5/6, any EGFR), HER2-enriched (ER-, PR-, HER2+, any Ki-67, any CK 5/6, any EGFR), Luminal-HER2 (ER + and/or PR+, HER2+, any Ki-67, any CK 5/6, any EGFR), Basal-like (ER-, PR-, HER2-, any Ki-67, CK5/6+ and/or EGFR+), triple-negative nonbasal (ER-, PR-, HER2-, any Ki-67, CK 5/6-, EGFR-). Each four- or six-marker defined intrinsic subtype was divided in two groups, with Ki-67 <14% or with Ki-67 ≥14%. Recurrence hazard rate function was determined for each intrinsic subtype as a whole and according to Ki-67 value. RESULTS Luminal A displayed a slow risk increase, reaching its maximum after three years and then remained steady. Luminal B presented most of its relapses during the first five years. HER2-enriched tumors show a peak of recurrence nearly twenty months post-surgery, with a greater risk in Ki-67 ≥14%. However a second peak occurred at 72 months but the risk magnitude was greater in Ki-67 <14%. Triple negative tumors with low proliferation rate display a smooth risk curve, but with Ki-67 ≥14% show sharp peak at nearly 18 months. CONCLUSIONS Each intrinsic subtype has a particular pattern of relapses over time which change depending on the level of activation of the proliferation pathway assessed by Ki-67. These findings could have clinical implications both on adjuvant treatment trial design and on the recommendations concerning the surveillance of patients.

Cancer testis antigen expression in gastrointestinal stromal tumors: new markers for early recurrence.

Cancer testis antigens (CTAs) are expressed in a variety of malignant tumors but not in any normal adult tissues except germ cells and occasionally placenta. Because of this tumor-associated pattern of expression, CTAs are regarded as potential vaccine targets. The expression of CTAs in gastrointestinal stromal tumors (GIST) has not been analyzed systematically previously. The present study was performed to analyze the expression of CTA in GIST and to determine if CTA expression correlates with prognosis. Thirty-five GIST patients were retrospectively analyzed for their expression of CTAs by immunohistochemistry using the following monoclonal antibodies (mAb/antigen): MA454/MAGE-A1, M3H67/MAGE-A3, 57B/MAGE-A4, CT7-33/MAGE-C1 and E978/NY-ESO-1. Fourteen tumors (40%) expressed 1 or more of the 5 CTAs tested. Fourteen percent (n = 5/35) were positive for MAGE-A1, MAGE-A3 or MAGE-A4, respectively. Twenty-six percent (n = 9/35) stained positive for MAGE-C1 and 20% (n = 7/35) for NY-ESO-1. A highly significant correlation between CTA expression and tumor recurrence risk was observed (71% vs. 29%; p = 0.027). In our study population, the high-risk GIST expressed CTAs more frequently than low-risk GIST (p = 0.012). High-risk GISTs which stained positive for at least 1 CTA, recurred in 100% (n = 25) of the cases. This is the first study analyzing CTA expression in GIST and its prognostic value for recurrence. The CTA staining could add information to the individual patient prognosis and represent an interesting target for future treatment strategies.

Recurrence of status epilepticus: Prognostic role and outcome predictors.

OBJECTIVE: Predictors of morbidity and mortality after status epilepticus (SE) have been studied extensively in hospital- and population-based cohorts. However, little attention has been directed toward SE recurrence after an incident episode. We investigated clinical and demographic characteristics of patients presenting SE recurrence and its specific prognostic role. METHODS: In this observational cohort study, we screened our prospective registry of consecutive adults with SE between April 2006 and February 2014. Demographic and clinical data were compared between incident and recurrent SE episodes; risk of SE recurrence was assessed through survival analysis, and the prognostic role of SE recurrence with multivariable logistic regressions. RESULTS: Of the incident cohort (509 patients), 68 (13%) experienced recurrent SE. The cumulative recurrence rate over 4 years was 32%. Recurrence risk was significantly reduced after an acute SE etiology (hazard ratio [HR] 0.5, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.31-0.82; p = 0.005), and was borderline increased in women (HR 1.59, 95% CI 0.97-2.65; p = 0.06). Although recurrent SE episodes showed lower morbidity and mortality, prognosis was independently related to Status Epilepticus Severity Score (STESS) and potentially fatal etiology, but not to SE recurrence. SIGNIFICANCE: This study provides class III evidence that SE recurrence involves a significant proportion of patients, and that recurrence risk is independently associated with chronic etiology and to a lesser extent with female gender. However, contrary to underlying cause and SE severity, SE recurrence per se does not independently correlate with outcome. Early identification of patients at higher risk of SE recurrence may influence their management during follow-up.

Homocystéine et risque cardiovasculaire: de l'utilité du dosage [Homocystein and cardiovascular risk: is dosage useful?]

Hyperhomocysteinemia represents an independent risk factor for atherothrombotic disease. Physiopathological mechanisms of accelerated progression of atherosclerosis in presence of hyperhomocysteinemia are complex. Herein we report a clinical case which emphasis the importance of screening elevated homocystein in the absence of conventional risk factors in patients who suffer from premature atherosclerosis.

Predicting recurrence after unprovoked venous thromboembolism: prospective validation of the updated Vienna Prediction Model.

The updated Vienna Prediction Model for estimating recurrence risk after an unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE) has been developed to identify individuals at low risk for VTE recurrence in whom anticoagulation (AC) therapy may be stopped after 3 months. We externally validated the accuracy of the model to predict recurrent VTE in a prospective multicenter cohort of 156 patients aged ≥65 years with acute symptomatic unprovoked VTE who had received 3 to 12 months of AC. Patients with a predicted 12-month risk within the lowest quartile based on the updated Vienna Prediction Model were classified as low risk. The risk of recurrent VTE did not differ between low- vs higher-risk patients at 12 months (13% vs 10%; P = .77) and 24 months (15% vs 17%; P = 1.0). The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for predicting VTE recurrence was 0.39 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.25-0.52) at 12 months and 0.43 (95% CI, 0.31-0.54) at 24 months. In conclusion, in elderly patients with unprovoked VTE who have stopped AC, the updated Vienna Prediction Model does not discriminate between patients who develop recurrent VTE and those who do not. This study was registered at www.clinicaltrials.gov as #NCT00973596.

Association between smoking and recurrence of venous thromboembolism and bleeding in elderly patients with past acute venous thromboembolism.

BACKGROUND: While the association between smoking and arterial cardiovascular events has been well established, the association between smoking and venous thromboembolism (VTE) remains controversial. OBJECTIVES: To assess the association between smoking and the risk of recurrent VTE and bleeding in patients who have experienced acute VTE. PATIENTS/METHODS: This study is part of a prospective Swiss multicenter cohort that included patients aged ≥65years with acute VTE. Three groups were defined according to smoking status: never, former and current smokers. The primary outcome was the time to a first symptomatic, objectively confirmed VTE recurrence. Secondary outcomes were the time to a first major and clinically relevant non-major bleeding. Associations between smoking status and outcomes were analysed using proportional hazard models for the subdistribution of a competing risk of death. RESULTS: Among 988 analysed patients, 509 (52%) had never smoked, 403 (41%) were former smokers, and 76 (8%) current smokers. After a median follow-up of 29.6months, we observed a VTE recurrence rate of 4.9 (95% confidence interval [CI] 3.7-6.4) per 100 patient-years for never smokers, 6.6 (95% CI 5.1-8.6) for former smokers, and 5.2 (95% CI 2.6-10.5) for current smokers. Compared to never smokers, we found no association between current smoking and VTE recurrence (adjusted sub-hazard ratio [SHR] 1.05, 95% CI 0.49-2.28), major bleeding (adjusted SHR 0.59, 95% CI 0.25-1.39), and clinically relevant non-major bleeding (adjusted SHR 1.21, 95% CI 0.73-2.02). CONCLUSIONS: In this multicentre prospective cohort study, we found no association between smoking status and VTE recurrence or bleeding in elderly patients with VTE.

Montreal classification of patient operated for Crohn's disease and identification of surgical recurrence predictors

OBJECTIVE: to evaluate Crohn's disease recurrence and its possible predictors in patients undergoing surgical treatment. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective study with Crohn's disease (CD) patients undergoing surgical treatment between January 1992 and January 2012, and regularly monitored at the Bowel Clinic of the Hospital das Clínicas of the UFMG. RESULTS: we evaluated 125 patients, 50.4% female, with a mean age of 46.12 years, the majority (63.2%) diagnosed between 17 and 40 years of age. The ileum was involved in 58.4%, whereas stenotic behavior was observed in 44.8%, and penetrating, in 45.6%. We observed perianal disease in 26.4% of cases. The follow-up average was 152.40 months. Surgical relapse occurred in 29.6%, with a median time of 68 months from the first operation. CONCLUSION: The ileocolic location, penetrating behavior and perianal involvement (L3B3p) were associated with increased risk of surgical recurrence.

A gene signature in histologically normal surgical margins is predictive of oral carcinoma recurrence

Background: Oral Squamous Cell Carcinoma (OSCC) is a major cause of cancer death worldwide, which is mainly due to recurrence leading to treatment failure and patient death. Histological status of surgical margins is a currently available assessment for recurrence risk in OSCC; however histological status does not predict recurrence, even in patients with histologically negative margins. Therefore, molecular analysis of histologically normal resection margins and the corresponding OSCC may aid in identifying a gene signature predictive of recurrence.Methods: We used a meta-analysis of 199 samples (OSCCs and normal oral tissues) from five public microarray datasets, in addition to our microarray analysis of 96 OSCCs and histologically normal margins from 24 patients, to train a gene signature for recurrence. Validation was performed by quantitative real-time PCR using 136 samples from an independent cohort of 30 patients.Results: We identified 138 significantly over-expressed genes (> 2-fold, false discovery rate of 0.01) in OSCC. By penalized likelihood Cox regression, we identified a 4-gene signature with prognostic value for recurrence in our training set. This signature comprised the invasion-related genes MMP1, COL4A1, P4HA2, and THBS2. Overexpression of this 4-gene signature in histologically normal margins was associated with recurrence in our training cohort (p = 0.0003, logrank test) and in our independent validation cohort (p = 0.04, HR = 6.8, logrank test).Conclusion: Gene expression alterations occur in histologically normal margins in OSCC. Over-expression of the 4-gene signature in histologically normal surgical margins was validated and highly predictive of recurrence in an independent patient cohort. Our findings may be applied to develop a molecular test, which would be clinically useful to help predict which patients are at a higher risk of local recurrence.

Secretion of middle ear in infants - Occurrence, recurrence and related factors

Objective: The present study aimed at evaluating the occurrence and recurrence of middle ear effusion and possible associated factors in the first two years of life of 190 newborns and infants, participants in the interdisciplinary prevention, detection, and intervention program at the Clínica de Educação para Saúde of Universidade do Sagrado Coração, Methods: Newborns and infants were monthly submitted to anamneses, otoscopy, behavioral hearing assessment using sound instruments and pure tones (pediatric audiometry) and tympanometry. Results: The results revealed that 68.4% of infants presented one or more episodes of middle ear effusion during their two first years, with more recurrence among males. Peak occurrence was between four and 12 months of age and, the earlier the first episode, the higher the probability of recurrence. Greatest incidence was during May and August. It was found that, of the variables investigated, the period of exclusive breastfeeding actuated as a protector factor. With respect of risk factors, it was observed that passive smoking, gastro-esophageal reflux and respiratory allergy were related with the recurrences of effusion. Conclusion: Findings revealed the importance of periodic auditory follow-up for infants during their first two years of life, considered to be the critical period of auditory system maturation, during which sensory deprivation can be responsible for damage to the development of speech, language and other auditory abilities. Copyright © 2005 by Sociedade Brasileira de Pediatria.