Realistic Traffic Scenarios Using a Census Methodology: Vila Real Case Study

This paper presents the first phase of the redevelopment of the Electric Vehicle Scenario Simulator (EVeSSi) tool. A new methodology to generate traffic demand scenarios for the Simulation of Urban MObility (SUMO) tool for urban traffic simulation is described. This methodology is based on a Portugal census database to generate a synthetic population for a given area under study. A realistic case study of a Portuguese city, Vila Real, is assessed. For this area the road network was created along with a synthetic population and public transport. The traffic results were obtained and an electric buses fleet was evaluated assuming that the actual fleet would be replaced in a near future. The energy requirements to charge the electric fleet overnight were estimated in order to evaluate the impacts that it would cause in the local electricity network.

Satellite-supported flood forecasting in river networks: a real case study

Satellite-based (e.g., Synthetic Aperture Radar [SAR]) water level observations (WLOs) of the floodplain can be sequentially assimilated into a hydrodynamic model to decrease forecast uncertainty. This has the potential to keep the forecast on track, so providing an Earth Observation (EO) based flood forecast system. However, the operational applicability of such a system for floods developed over river networks requires further testing. One of the promising techniques for assimilation in this field is the family of ensemble Kalman (EnKF) filters. These filters use a limited-size ensemble representation of the forecast error covariance matrix. This representation tends to develop spurious correlations as the forecast-assimilation cycle proceeds, which is a further complication for dealing with floods in either urban areas or river junctions in rural environments. Here we evaluate the assimilation of WLOs obtained from a sequence of real SAR overpasses (the X-band COSMO-Skymed constellation) in a case study. We show that a direct application of a global Ensemble Transform Kalman Filter (ETKF) suffers from filter divergence caused by spurious correlations. However, a spatially-based filter localization provides a substantial moderation in the development of the forecast error covariance matrix, directly improving the forecast and also making it possible to further benefit from a simultaneous online inflow error estimation and correction. Additionally, we propose and evaluate a novel along-network metric for filter localization, which is physically-meaningful for the flood over a network problem. Using this metric, we further evaluate the simultaneous estimation of channel friction and spatially-variable channel bathymetry, for which the filter seems able to converge simultaneously to sensible values. Results also indicate that friction is a second order effect in flood inundation models applied to gradually varied flow in large rivers. The study is not conclusive regarding whether in an operational situation the simultaneous estimation of friction and bathymetry helps the current forecast. Overall, the results indicate the feasibility of stand-alone EO-based operational flood forecasting.

Solving the logically constrained multiple choice multiple knapsack problem: A real case

In questa tesi viene analizzato un problema di ottimizzazione proposto da alcuni esercizi commerciali che hanno la necessita` di selezionare e disporre i propri ar- ticoli in negozio. Il problema nasce dall’esigenza di massimizzare il profitto com- plessivo atteso dei prodotti in esposizione, trovando per ognuno una locazione sugli scaffali. I prodotti sono suddivisi in dipartimenti, dai quali solo un ele- mento deve essere selezionato ed esposto. In oltre si prevede la possibilita` di esprimere vincoli sulla locazione e compatibilita` dei prodotti. Il problema risul- tante `e una generalizzazione dei gia` noti Multiple-Choice Knapsack Problem e Multiple Knapsack Problem. Dopo una ricerca esaustiva in letteratura si `e ev- into che questo problema non `e ancora stato studiato. Si `e quindi provveduto a formalizzare il problema mediante un modello di programmazione lineare intera. Si propone un algoritmo esatto per la risoluzione del problema basato su column generation e branch and price. Sono stati formulati quattro modelli differenti per la risoluzione del pricing problem su cui si basa il column generation, per individuare quale sia il piu` efficiente. Tre dei quattro modelli proposti hanno performance comparabili, mentre l’ultimo si `e rivelato piu` inefficiente. Dai risul- tati ottenuti si evince che il metodo risolutivo proposto `e adatto a istanze di dimensione medio-bassa.

Electricity production usíng different photovoltaic technologies working at the same conditíons , a real case

The manufacture of photovoltaic (PV) modules has greatly increased in the past few years. The classical PV module is based on crystalline silicon (e-Si) , nevertheless the so called thinfilm technology is gaining importance each year. In this research paper we present a experimental grid-connected solar plant situated in one of the buildings of the Technical University of Madrid, with two main objectives.

Development of a full hybrid lighting-CPV prototype and savings in a real case operation

A full Hybrid lighting-CPV prototype has been assembled. This new concept mixes a classical CPV module with the production of light for illumination without a double conversion (solar energy to electricity and electricity to light) allowing a higher efficiency to the whole system. The present prototype is based on a commercial CPV module that has been adapted in order to be hybrid, adjusting the receivers to pass the fibers into the module, inserting a holder to adjust x,y and z position of the fibers and changing the original parquet of lenses by a bifocal one composed most of the original lenses and the inclusion of other lenses in the position of the corners. Results show that with a minimal loss in the CPV part, a luminous flux is obtained that can be used to illuminate. Adding an additional electrical lamp and a light sensor that enables this lamp when no light from the sun is received, a 38% saving on lighting electricity is expected in Madrid during a year.

A real case of a cognitive multiplayer game: design and development of the iOS client in Swift and its cloud architecture

as tecnologías emergentes como el cloud computing y los dispositivos móviles están creando una oportunidad sin precedentes para mejorar el sistema educativo, permitiendo tanto a los educadores personalizar y mejorar la experiencia de aprendizaje, como facilitar a los estudiantes que adquieran conocimientos sin importar dónde estén. Por otra parte, a través de técnicas de gamificacion será posible promover y motivar a los estudiantes a que aprendan materias arduas haciendo que la experiencia sea más motivadora. Los juegos móviles pueden ser el camino correcto para dar soporte a esta experiencia de aprendizaje mejorada. Este proyecto integra el diseño y desarrollo de una arquitectura en la nube altamente escalable y con alto rendimiento, así como el propio cliente de iOS, para dar soporte a una nueva version de Temporis, un juego móvil multijugador orientado a reordenar eventos históricos en una línea temporal (e.j. historia, arte, deportes, entretenimiento y literatura). Temporis actualmente está disponible en Google Play. Esta memoria describe el desarrollo de la nueva versión de Temporis (Temporis v.2.0) proporcionando detalles acerca de la mejora y adaptación basados en el Temporis original. En particular se describe el nuevo backend hecho en Go sobre Google App Engine creado para soportar miles de usuarios, asó como otras características por ejemplo como conseguir enviar noticaciones push desde la propia plataforma. Por último, el cliente de iOS en Temporis v.2.0 se ha desarrollado utilizando las últimas y más relevantes tecnologías, prestando especial atención a Swift (el lenguaje de programación nuevo de Apple, que es seguro y rápido), el Paradigma Funcional Reactivo (que ayuda a construir aplicaciones altamente interactivas además de a minimizar errores) y la arquitectura VIPER (una arquitectura que sigue los principios SOLID, se centra en la separación de asuntos y favorece la reutilización de código en otras plataformas). ABSTRACT Emerging technologies such as cloud computing and mobile devices are creating an unprecedented opportunity for enhancing the educational system, letting both educators customize and improve the learning experience, and students acquire knowledge regardless of where they are. Moreover, through gamification techniques it would be possible to encourage and motivate students to learn arduous subjects by making the experience more motivating. Mobile games can be a perfect vehicle to support this enhanced learning experience. This project integrates the design and development of a highly scalable and performant cloud architecture, as well as the iOS client that uses it, in order to provide support to a new version of Temporis, a mobile multiplayer game focused on ordering time-based (e.g. history, art, sports, entertainment and literature) in a timeline that currently is available on Google Play. This work describes the development of the new Temporis version (Temporis v.2.0), providing details about improvements and details on the adaptation of the original Temporis. In particular, the new Google App Engine backend is described, which was created to support thousand of users developed in Go language are provided, in addition to other features like how to achieve push notications in this platform. Finally, the mobile iOS client developed using the latest and more relevant technologies is explained paying special attention to Swift (Apple's new programming language, that is safe and fast), the Functional Reactive Paradigm (that helps building highly interactive apps while minimizing bugs) and the VIPER architecture (a SOLID architecture that enforces separation of concerns and makes it easy to reuse code for other platforms).

Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis

Provides an accessible foundation to Bayesian analysis using real world models This book aims to present an introduction to Bayesian modelling and computation, by considering real case studies drawn from diverse fields spanning ecology, health, genetics and finance. Each chapter comprises a description of the problem, the corresponding model, the computational method, results and inferences as well as the issues that arise in the implementation of these approaches. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis: •Illustrates how to do Bayesian analysis in a clear and concise manner using real-world problems. •Each chapter focuses on a real-world problem and describes the way in which the problem may be analysed using Bayesian methods. •Features approaches that can be used in a wide area of application, such as, health, the environment, genetics, information science, medicine, biology, industry and remote sensing. Case Studies in Bayesian Statistical Modelling and Analysis is aimed at statisticians, researchers and practitioners who have some expertise in statistical modelling and analysis, and some understanding of the basics of Bayesian statistics, but little experience in its application. Graduate students of statistics and biostatistics will also find this book beneficial.

Redes bipartitas: aplicación a un caso económico real

[ES]El TFG consta de dos partes: en la primera se expondrá la teoría sobre las redes que se utilizarán en la segunda parte, que consistirá en el análisis de un caso real donde se aplicarán las redes estudiadas en la primera parte.

New statistical methods to assess the effect of time-dependent exposures in case-control studies

Contexte. Les études cas-témoins sont très fréquemment utilisées par les épidémiologistes pour évaluer l’impact de certaines expositions sur une maladie particulière. Ces expositions peuvent être représentées par plusieurs variables dépendant du temps, et de nouvelles méthodes sont nécessaires pour estimer de manière précise leurs effets. En effet, la régression logistique qui est la méthode conventionnelle pour analyser les données cas-témoins ne tient pas directement compte des changements de valeurs des covariables au cours du temps. Par opposition, les méthodes d’analyse des données de survie telles que le modèle de Cox à risques instantanés proportionnels peuvent directement incorporer des covariables dépendant du temps représentant les histoires individuelles d’exposition. Cependant, cela nécessite de manipuler les ensembles de sujets à risque avec précaution à cause du sur-échantillonnage des cas, en comparaison avec les témoins, dans les études cas-témoins. Comme montré dans une étude de simulation précédente, la définition optimale des ensembles de sujets à risque pour l’analyse des données cas-témoins reste encore à être élucidée, et à être étudiée dans le cas des variables dépendant du temps. Objectif: L’objectif général est de proposer et d’étudier de nouvelles versions du modèle de Cox pour estimer l’impact d’expositions variant dans le temps dans les études cas-témoins, et de les appliquer à des données réelles cas-témoins sur le cancer du poumon et le tabac. Méthodes. J’ai identifié de nouvelles définitions d’ensemble de sujets à risque, potentiellement optimales (le Weighted Cox model and le Simple weighted Cox model), dans lesquelles différentes pondérations ont été affectées aux cas et aux témoins, afin de refléter les proportions de cas et de non cas dans la population source. Les propriétés des estimateurs des effets d’exposition ont été étudiées par simulation. Différents aspects d’exposition ont été générés (intensité, durée, valeur cumulée d’exposition). Les données cas-témoins générées ont été ensuite analysées avec différentes versions du modèle de Cox, incluant les définitions anciennes et nouvelles des ensembles de sujets à risque, ainsi qu’avec la régression logistique conventionnelle, à des fins de comparaison. Les différents modèles de régression ont ensuite été appliqués sur des données réelles cas-témoins sur le cancer du poumon. Les estimations des effets de différentes variables de tabac, obtenues avec les différentes méthodes, ont été comparées entre elles, et comparées aux résultats des simulations. Résultats. Les résultats des simulations montrent que les estimations des nouveaux modèles de Cox pondérés proposés, surtout celles du Weighted Cox model, sont bien moins biaisées que les estimations des modèles de Cox existants qui incluent ou excluent simplement les futurs cas de chaque ensemble de sujets à risque. De plus, les estimations du Weighted Cox model étaient légèrement, mais systématiquement, moins biaisées que celles de la régression logistique. L’application aux données réelles montre de plus grandes différences entre les estimations de la régression logistique et des modèles de Cox pondérés, pour quelques variables de tabac dépendant du temps. Conclusions. Les résultats suggèrent que le nouveau modèle de Cox pondéré propose pourrait être une alternative intéressante au modèle de régression logistique, pour estimer les effets d’expositions dépendant du temps dans les études cas-témoins

Selection of funding schemes by a borrowing decision model: a Hong Kong case study

In financial decision-making, a number of mathematical models have been developed for financial management in construction. However, optimizing both qualitative and quantitative factors and the semi-structured nature of construction finance optimization problems are key challenges in solving construction finance decisions. The selection of funding schemes by a modified construction loan acquisition model is solved by an adaptive genetic algorithm (AGA) approach. The basic objectives of the model are to optimize the loan and to minimize the interest payments for all projects. Multiple projects being undertaken by a medium-size construction firm in Hong Kong were used as a real case study to demonstrate the application of the model to the borrowing decision problems. A compromise monthly borrowing schedule was finally achieved. The results indicate that Small and Medium Enterprise (SME) Loan Guarantee Scheme (SGS) was first identified as the source of external financing. Selection of sources of funding can then be made to avoid the possibility of financial problems in the firm by classifying qualitative factors into external, interactive and internal types and taking additional qualitative factors including sovereignty, credit ability and networking into consideration. Thus a more accurate, objective and reliable borrowing decision can be provided for the decision-maker to analyse the financial options.

Climate and construction delays: case study in Chile

Purpose – Construction projects usually suffer delays, and the causes of these delays and its cost overruns have been widely discussed, the weather being one of the most recurrent. The purpose of this paper is to analyze the influence of climate on standard construction work activities through a case study. Design/methodology/approach – By studying the extent at which some weather variables impede outdoor work from being effectively executed, new maps and tables for planning for delays are presented. In addition, a real case regarding the construction of several bridges in southern Chile is analyzed. Findings – Few studies have thoroughly addressed the influences of major climatic agents on the most common outdoor construction activities. The method detailed here provides a first approximation for construction planners to assess to what extent construction productivity will be influenced by the climate. Research limitations/implications – Although this study was performed in Chile, the simplified method proposed is entirely transferable to any other country, however, other weather or combinations of weather variables could be needed in other environments or countries. Practical implications – The implications will help reducing the negative social, economic and environmental outcomes that usually emerge from project delays. Originality/value – Climatic data were processed using extremely simple calculations to create a series of quantitative maps and tables that would be useful for any construction planner to decide the best moment of the year to start a project and, if possible, where to build it.

Modeling Of District Metered Areas With Relatively High Leakage Rate. The Case Study Of Kalipoli’s DMA

The article reviews the modelling of District Metered Areas (DMAs) with relatively high leakage rate. As a generally recognised approach in modelling of leakage does not exist, modelling of leakage by enginners and other researchers usually takes place by dividing the whole leakage rate evenly to all available nodes of the model. In this article, a new methodology is proposed to determine the nodal leakage by using a hydraulic model. The proposed methodology takes into consideration the IWA water balance methodology, the Minimum Night Flow (MNF) analysis, the number of connections related to each node and the marerial of pipes. In addition, the model is illustrated by a real case study, as it was applied in Kalipoli’s DMA. Results show that the proposed model gives reliable results.

Distressed situation and renegotiation plan: a case study

Este trabalho apresenta um caso real de uma empresa em situação de estresse financeiro: a PlywoodCo. O objetivo deste trabalho é de entender porque a PlywoodCo. chegou na atual situação de estresse e, baseado nisso, propor um plano de renegociação de passivos compatível com esta situação com o objetivo de tornar a PlywoodCo. em uma empresa viável. Uma introdução é feita, a fim de colocar o leitor em contato com a PlywoodCo., apresentado as suas atividades, principais produtos, posição de mercado, bem como brevemente introduzindo sua atual situação. Após a introdução, a revisão bibliográfica é apresentada, descrevendo a teoria relacionada e utilizada neste trabalho. Mais adiante, a metodologia é apresentada, seguida por mais informações a respeito das operações da PlywoodCo., informações financeiras, relacionamento com stakeholders, índices operacionais, demonstrações financeiras, cronograma de pagamento da dívida e depreciação. Depois, as premissas, analises e projeções não apresentadas, consistindo de duas partes: (1) uma seção de diagnóstico endereçando a atual situação da empresa; e (2) uma seção de projeção, que será dividida em duas partes: (a) projeções financeiras da PlywoodCo. na atual situação; e (b) projeções financeiras da PlywoodCo. no novo plano proposto. Finalmente, se conclui que a empresa precisará de esforços além da renegociação de passivos a fim de superar sua situação de estresse financeiro. Após a renegociação da dívida, a empresa precisará de R$ 23 MM até o fim de 2013.

Hydropower recovery in water supply systems: Models and case study

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Real-time reliability test for a CPV module based on a power degradation model

Models based on degradation are powerful and useful tools to evaluate the reliability of those devices in which failure happens because of degradation in the performance parameters. This paper presents a procedure for assessing the reliability of concentrator photovoltaic (CPV) modules operating outdoors in real-time conditions. With this model, the main reliability functions are predicted. This model has been applied to a real case with a module composed of GaAs single-junction solar cells and total internal reflection (TIR) optics