Geographic Range Shifts under Climate Warming

Thesis (Ph.D.)--University of Washington, 2013

Gene expression under thermal stress varies across a geographical range expansion front

Acknowledgements: We would like to thank Hanna Bensch and Hannes Weise for assistance with the collection of samples in the field. This work was supported by the Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Climate (BECC; a joint Lund-Gothenburg University initiative), the Swedish Research Council (EIS, BH), the Crafoord Foundation (EIS, BH), the Swedish Royal Society (EIS), ‘Gyllenstiernska Krapperupstiftelsen (EIS), the Wenner-Gren Foundations (postdoctoral stipend to RYD), EU FP7 (Marie Curie International Incoming Fellowship to RYD), the Kungliga Fysiografiska Sällskapet i Lund (MW) and the Helge Ax:son Johnson Stiftelse (MW). B.H. and E.I.S. conceived of the study. L.L. developed the hypotheses to be tested. L.L. and R.D. collected the field data and samples. All six authors contributed to planning RNA-seq analyses. P.C. and L.L. analysed the data. L.L. wrote the manuscript, which all six authors edited.

An R package for simulating metapopulation dynamics and range expansion under environmental change

The metapopulation paradigm is central in ecology and conservation biology to understand the dynamics of spatially-structured populations in fragmented landscapes. Metapopulations are often studied using simulation modelling, and there is an increasing demand of user-friendly software tools to simulate metapopulation responses to environmental change. Here we describe the MetaLandSim R package, mwhich integrates ideas from metapopulation and graph theories to simulate the dynamics of real and virtual metapopulations. The package offers tools to (i) estimate metapopulation parameters from empirical data, (ii) to predict variation in patch occupancy over time in static and dynamic landscapes, either real or virtual, and (iii) to quantify the patterns and speed of metapopulation expansion into empty landscapes. MetaLandSim thus provides detailed information on metapopulation processes, which can be easily combined with land use and climate change scenarios to predict metapopulation dynamics and range expansion for a variety of taxa and ecological systems.

Physiology, ecological niches and species distribution

Although many studies have debated the theoretical links between physiology, ecological niches and species distribution, few studies have provided evidence for a tight empirical coupling between these concepts at a macroecological scale. We used an ecophysiological model to assess the fundamental niche of a key-structural marine species. We found a close relationship between its fundamental and realized niche. The relationship remains constant at both biogeographical and decadal scales, showing that changes in environmental forcing propagate from the physiological to the macroecological level. A substantial shift in the spatial distribution is detected in the North Atlantic and projections of range shift using IPCC scenarios suggest a poleward movement of the species of one degree of latitude per decade for the 21st century. The shift in the spatial distribution of this species reveals a pronounced alteration of polar pelagic ecosystems with likely implications for lower and upper trophic levels and some biogeochemical cycles.

Tracking climatically suitable areas for an endemic Cerrado snake under climate change

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

A trait-based approach for predicting species responses to environmental change from sparse data : how well might terrestrial mammals track climate change?

Funded by COST (European Cooperation in Science and Technology) CEH projects. Grant Numbers: NEC05264, NEC05100 Natural Environment Research Council UK. Grant Number: NE/J008001/1 © 2016 The Authors. Global Change Biology Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd. This is an open access article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits use, distribution and reproduction in any medium, provided the original work is properly cited.

Dominant drivers of seedling establishment in a fire-dependent obligate seeder: climate or fire regimes?

Climate change is causing fire regime shifts in ecosystems worldwide. Plant species with regeneration strategies strongly linked to a fire regime, such as obligate seeders, may be particularly threatened by these changes. It is unclear whether changes in fire regimes or the direct effects of climate change will be the dominant threats to obligate seeders in future. We investigated the relative importance of fire-related variables (fire return interval andfire severity) and environmental factors (climate and topography) on seedling establishment in the world's tallest angiosperm, an obligate seeder, Eucalyptus regnans. Throughout its range, this species dominates the wet montane forests of south-eastern Australia and plays a keystone role in forest structure. Following major wildfires, we investigated seedling establishment in E. regnanswithin 1 year of fire as this is a critical stage in the regeneration niche of obligate seeders. Seedling presence and abundance were strongly related to the occurrence of fire but not to variation in fire severity (moderate vs. high severity). Seedling abundance increased with increasing fire return interval (range 26-300 years). First-year seedling establishment was also strongly associated with low temperatures and with high elevations, high precipitation and persistent soil water availability. Our results show that both climate and fire regimes are strong drivers of E. regnans seedling establishment. The predicted warming and drying of the climate might reduce the regeneration potential for some obligate seeders in future and these threats are likely to be compounded by changes in fire regimes, particularly increases in fire frequency.

Geographical range margins of many taxonomic groups continue to shift polewards

Many species are extending their leading-edge (cool) range margins polewards in response to recent climate change. In the present study, we investigated range margin changes at the northern (cool) range margins of 1573 southerly-distributed species from 21 animal groups in Great Britain over the past four decades of climate change, updating previous work. Depending on data availability, range margin changes were examined over two time intervals during the past four decades. For four groups (birds, butterflies, macromoths, and dragonflies and damselflies), there were sufficient data available to examine range margin changes over both time intervals. We found that most taxa shifted their northern range margins polewards and this finding was not greatly influenced by changes in recorder effort. The mean northwards range margin change in the first time interval was 23 km per decade (N = 13 taxonomic groups) and, in the second interval, was 18 km per decade (N = 16 taxonomic groups) during periods when the British climate warmed by 0.21 and 0.28 °C per decade, respectively. For the four taxa examined over both intervals, there was evidence for higher rate of range margin change in the more recent time interval in the two Lepidoptera groups. Our analyses confirm a continued range margin shift polewards in a wide range of taxonomic groups.

Latitudinal shift in thermal niche breadth results from thermal release during a climate-mediated range expansion

Funded by Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Climate Wenner-Gren Foundation Swedish Research Council The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Stiftelsen Anna-Greta Holger Crafoords Fund The Crafoord Foundation

Latitudinal shift in thermal niche breadth results from thermal release during a climate-mediated range expansion

Funded by Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Climate Wenner-Gren Foundation Swedish Research Council The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Stiftelsen Anna-Greta Holger Crafoords Fund The Crafoord Foundation

Latitudinal shift in thermal niche breadth results from thermal release during a climate-mediated range expansion

Funded by Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services in a Changing Climate Wenner-Gren Foundation Swedish Research Council The Royal Swedish Academy of Sciences Stiftelsen Anna-Greta Holger Crafoords Fund The Crafoord Foundation

Extending client-centered support : counselors’ proposals to shift from email to telephone counseling

The availability and use of online counseling approaches has increased rapidly over the last decade. While research has suggested a range of potential affordances and limitations of online counseling modalities, very few studies have offered detailed examinations of how counselors and clients manage asynchronous email counseling exchanges. In this paper we examine email exchanges involving clients and counselors through Kids Helpline, a national Australian counseling service that offers free online, email and telephone counseling for young people up to the age of 25. We employ tools from the traditions of ethnomethodology and conversation analysis to analyze the ways in which counselors from Kids Helpline request that their clients call them, and hence change the modality of their counseling relationship, from email to telephone counseling. This paper shows the counselors’ three multi-layered approaches in these emails as they negotiate the potentially delicate task of requesting and persuading a client to change the trajectory of their counseling relationship from text to talk without placing that relationship in jeopardy.

Effects of pupil center shift on ocular aberrations

Purpose: To investigate effects of pupil shifts, occurring with changes in luminance and accommodation stimuli, on refraction components and higher-order aberrations. Method: Participants were young and older groups (n=20, 22±2 years, age range 18–25 years; n=19, 49±4 years, 45–58 years). Aberrations/refractions at 4 mm and 3 mm diameters were compared between centered and decentered pupils for low (background 0.01cd/m², 0D), and high (6100cd/m², 4D or 6D) stimuli. Decentration was the difference between pupil centers for low and high stimuli. Clinical important changes with decentration were: M ±0.50D or ±0.25D, J180 and J45 ±0.25D or ±0.125D, HORMS ±0.05m, C(3, 1) ±0.05m, C(4, 0) ±0.05m. Results: Because of small pupil shifts in most participants (mean 0.26mm), there were few important changes in most refraction components and higher-order aberration terms. However, M changed by >0.25 D for a third of participants with 4mm pupils. When determining refractions from 2nd-6th order aberration coefficients, the more stringent criteria gave 76/ 534 (14%) possible important changes. Some participants had large pupil shifts with considerable aberration changes. Comparisons at the high stimulus were possible for only 11 participants because of small pupils. When refractions were determined from 2nd order aberration coefficients only, there were only 35 (7%) important changes for the more stringent criteria. Conclusion: Usually pupil shifts with changes in stimulus conditions have little influence on aberrations, but they can with high shifts. The number of aberrations orders that are considered as contributing to refraction influences the proportion of cases that might be considered clinically important.