Major quantitative techniques for risk analysis in the construction industry : a comparative analysis

Risk analysis is one of the critical functions of the risk management process. It relies on a detailed understanding of risks and their possible implications. Construction projects, because of their large and complex nature, are plagued by a variety of risks which must be considered and responded to in order to ensure project success. This study conducts an extensive comparative analysis of major quantitative risk analysis techniques in the construction industry. The techniques discussed and comparatively analyzed in this report include: Programme Evaluation and Review Technique (PERT), Judgmental Risk Analysis Process (JRAP), Estimating Using Risk Analysis (ERA), Monte Carlo Simulation technique, Computer Aided Simulation for Project Appraisal and Review (CASPAR), Failure Modes and Effects Analysis technique (FMEA) and Advanced Programmatic Risk Analysis and Management model (APRAM). The findings highlight the fact that each risk analysis technique addresses risks in any or all of the following areas – schedule risks, budget risks or technical risks. Through comparative analysis, it has been revealed that a majority of risk analysis techniques focus on schedule or budget risks. Very little has been documented in terms of technical risk analysis techniques. In an era where clients are demanding and expecting higher quality projects and finishes, project managers must endeavor to invest time and resources to ensure that the few existing technical risk analysis techniques are developed and further refined, and that new technical risk analysis techniques are developed to suit the current construction industries requirements.

Dynamics of childhood growth and obesity: development and validation of a quantitative mathematical model

Background
Clinicians and policy makers need the ability to predict quantitatively how childhood bodyweight will respond to obesity interventions.

Methods
We developed and validated a mathematical model of childhood energy balance that accounts for healthy growth and development of obesity, and that makes quantitative predictions about weight-management interventions. The model was calibrated to reference body composition data in healthy children and validated by comparing model predictions with data other than those used to build the model.

Findings
The model accurately simulated the changes in body composition and energy expenditure reported in reference data during healthy growth, and predicted increases in energy intake from ages 5—18 years of roughly 1200 kcal per day in boys and 900 kcal per day in girls. Development of childhood obesity necessitated a substantially greater excess energy intake than for development of adult obesity. Furthermore, excess energy intake in overweight and obese children calculated by the model greatly exceeded the typical energy balance calculated on the basis of growth charts. At the population level, the excess weight of US children in 2003—06 was associated with a mean increase in energy intake of roughly 200 kcal per day per child compared with similar children in 1971—74. The model also suggests that therapeutic windows when children can outgrow obesity without losing weight might exist, especially during periods of high growth potential in boys who are not severely obese.

Interpretation
This model quantifies the energy excess underlying obesity and calculates the necessary intervention magnitude to achieve bodyweight change in children. Policy makers and clinicians now have a quantitative technique for understanding the childhood obesity epidemic and planning interventions to control it.

Funding
Intramural Research Program of the National Institutes of Health, National Institute of Diabetes and Digestive and Kidney Diseases.

Diagnostic accuracy of semi-quantitative and quantitative culture techniques for the diagnosis of catheter-related infections in newborns and molecular typing of isolated microorganisms

Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP)

Validation of a new proposal of quantitative sperm culture for industrialized bull semen

The Brazilian Ministry of Agriculture (MAPA) has discussed the mandatory culture of industrialized semen, both to ensure biosefety, and to prevent in vitro fertilization problems caused by oocyte contamination with ubiquitous and opportunistic bacteria from preputial microbiota. Pour plate, a quantitative technique recommended by the World Organization for Animal Health (OIE), is operationally difficult and costly for routine analysis in Artificial Insemination Centers (AICs). The objectives of this study were to evaluate and validate viable superficial bacteria counts (VSBC), in CFU/mL, compared with pour plate counts, in industrialized bull semen samples from AICs. Semen straws from Projeto Hungria - MAPA bulls were used. VSBC and pour plate were carried out in parallel in serial dilutions of the samples, from 10(-1) to 10(-5). CFU/mL means or medians recorded in each dilution and technique were compared, and no statistical differences were observed between the two techniques regarding the quantification of bacteria in CFU/mL, suggesting that it may be possible to replace pour plate for CBSV, a cheaper and more practical technique.

Use of the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization technique for bacteria detection in Aedes aegypti (Diptera:Culicidae) (L.)

Abstract Background Bacteria associated with insects can have a substantial impact on the biology and life cycle of their host. The checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization technique is a semi-quantitative technique that has been previously employed in odontology to detect and quantify a variety of bacterial species in dental samples. Here we tested the applicability of the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization technique to detect the presence of Aedes aegypti-associated bacterial species in larvae, pupae and adults of A. aegypti. Findings Using the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization technique we could detect and estimate the number of four bacterial species in total DNA samples extracted from A. aegypti single whole individuals and midguts. A. aegypti associated bacterial species were also detected in the midgut of four other insect species, Lutzomyia longipalpis, Drosophila melanogaster, Bradysia hygida and Apis mellifera. Conclusions Our results demonstrate that the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization technique can be employed to study the microbiota composition of mosquitoes. The method has the sensitivity to detect bacteria in single individuals, as well as in a single organ, and therefore can be employed to evaluate the differences in bacterial counts amongst individuals in a given mosquito population. We suggest that the checkerboard DNA-DNA hybridization technique is a straightforward technique that can be widely used for the characterization of the microbiota in mosquito populations.

3D movement and muscle activity patterns in a violin bowing task

Objective: Overuse injuries in violinists are a problem that has been primarily analyzed through the use of questionnaires. Simultaneous 3D motion analysis and EMG to measure muscle activity has been suggested as a quantitative technique to explore this problem by identifying movement patterns and muscular demands which may predispose violinists to overuse injuries. This multi-disciplinary analysis technique has, so far, had limited use in the music world. The purpose of this study was to use it to characterize the demands of a violin bowing task. Subjects: Twelve injury-free violinists volunteered for the study. The subjects were assigned to a novice or expert group based on playing experience, as determined by questionnaire. Design and Settings: Muscle activity and movement patterns were assessed while violinists played five bowing cycles (one bowing cycle = one down-bow + one up-bow) on each string (G, D, A, E), at a pulse of 4 beats per bow and 100 beats per minute. Measurements: An upper extremity model created using coordinate data from markers placed on the right acromion process, lateral epicondyle of the humerus and ulnar styloid was used to determine minimum and maximum joint angles, ranges of motion (ROM) and angular velocities at the shoulder and elbow of the bowing arm. Muscle activity in right anterior deltoid, biceps brachii and triceps brachii was assessed during maximal voluntary contractions (MVC) and during the playing task. Data were analysed for significant differences across the strings and between experience groups. Results: Elbow flexion/extension ROM was similar across strings for both groups. Shoulder flexion/extension ROM increaslarger for the experts. Angular velocity changes mirrored changes in ROM. Deltoid was the most active of the muscles assessed (20% MVC) and displayed a pattern of constant activation to maintain shoulder abduction. Biceps and triceps were less active (4 - 12% MVC) and showed a more periodic 'on and off pattern. Novices' muscle activity was higher in all cases. Experts' muscle activity showed a consistent pattern across strings, whereas the novices were more irregular. The agonist-antagonist roles of biceps and triceps during the bowing motion were clearly defined in the expert group, but not as apparent in the novice group. Conclusions: Bowing movement appears to be controlled by the shoulder rather than the elbow as shoulder ROM changed across strings while elbow ROM remained the same. Shoulder injuries are probably due to repetition as the muscle activity required for the movement is small. Experts require a smaller amount of muscle activity to perform the movement, possibly due to more efficient muscle activation patterns as a result of practice. This quantitative multidisciplinary approach to analysing violinists' movements can contribute to fuller understanding of both playing demands and injury mechanisms .

The price of risk in construction projects: contingency approximation model (CAM)

Little attention has been focussed on a precise definition and evaluation mechanism for project management risk specifically related to contractors. When bidding, contractors traditionally price risks using unsystematic approaches. The high business failure rate our industry records may indicate that the current unsystematic mechanisms contractors use for building up contingencies may be inadequate. The reluctance of some contractors to include a price for risk in their tenders when bidding for work competitively may also not be a useful approach. Here, instead, we first define the meaning of contractor contingency, and then we develop a facile quantitative technique that contractors can use to estimate a price for project risk. This model will help contractors analyse their exposure to project risks; and help them express the risk in monetary terms for management action. When bidding for work, they can decide how to allocate contingencies strategically in a way that balances risk and reward.

Assessing hepatic metabolic changes during progressive colonization of germ-free mouse by 1H NMR spectroscopy

It is well known that gut bacteria contribute significantly to the host homeostasis, providing a range of benefits such as immune protection and vitamin synthesis. They also supply the host with a considerable amount of nutrients, making this ecosystem an essential metabolic organ. In the context of increasing evidence of the link between the gut flora and the metabolic syndrome, understanding the metabolic interaction between the host and its gut microbiota is becoming an important challenge of modern biology.1-4 Colonization (also referred to as normalization process) designates the establishment of micro-organisms in a former germ-free animal. While it is a natural process occurring at birth, it is also used in adult germ-free animals to control the gut floral ecosystem and further determine its impact on the host metabolism. A common procedure to control the colonization process is to use the gavage method with a single or a mixture of micro-organisms. This method results in a very quick colonization and presents the disadvantage of being extremely stressful5. It is therefore useful to minimize the stress and to obtain a slower colonization process to observe gradually the impact of bacterial establishment on the host metabolism. In this manuscript, we describe a procedure to assess the modification of hepatic metabolism during a gradual colonization process using a non-destructive metabolic profiling technique. We propose to monitor gut microbial colonization by assessing the gut microbial metabolic activity reflected by the urinary excretion of microbial co-metabolites by 1H NMR-based metabolic profiling. This allows an appreciation of the stability of gut microbial activity beyond the stable establishment of the gut microbial ecosystem usually assessed by monitoring fecal bacteria by DGGE (denaturing gradient gel electrophoresis).6 The colonization takes place in a conventional open environment and is initiated by a dirty litter soiled by conventional animals, which will serve as controls. Rodents being coprophagous animals, this ensures a homogenous colonization as previously described.7 Hepatic metabolic profiling is measured directly from an intact liver biopsy using 1H High Resolution Magic Angle Spinning NMR spectroscopy. This semi-quantitative technique offers a quick way to assess, without damaging the cell structure, the major metabolites such as triglycerides, glucose and glycogen in order to further estimate the complex interaction between the colonization process and the hepatic metabolism7-10. This method can also be applied to any tissue biopsy11,12.

Avaliações dos tecidos hidrorrepelentes de equipamentos de proteção individual após usos e lavagens em condições de campo

Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES)

Comparação das técnicas semi-quantitativa e quantitativa nas infecções relacionadas a cateter em neonatos e determinação da resistência à oxacilina nos Staphylococcus spp

Study the semi-quantitative and quantitative technique in the diagnosis of catheter-related infections in newborns and to determine oxacillin resistance in Staphylococcus isolated. It was analyzed 353 catheter tips from 273 newborns in the Neonatal Unit of Hospital FMB. To confirm the diagnosis of infection, were analyzed the clinical data of newborns, the presence of at least one positive blood culture and growth of ≥ 1000 CFU/mL on quantitative culture and/or ³15 UFC on semiquantitative culture, with the same microorganism isolation (species and drug sensitivity) in blood culture and no other focus of infection except the catheter. The disk diffusion technique was used to check similarity of strains and resistance to oxacillin. Of the 353 tips analyzed, 39 were included in this study as the inclusion criteria. The semiquantitative culture was positive in 26 (66.7%) catheters and quantitative culture was positive in 24 (61.5%). Of 273 patients, 19 (6.9%) had a diagnosis of catheter-related bloodstream Infection (CR-BSI). Of the 19 episodes of CR-BSI, S. epidermidis was the predominant etiological agent (84.2%). The resistance to the antibiotic methicillin was found in 14 (73.7%) strains of Staphylococcus. The semiquantitative method was more sensitive (79%) compared with the quantitative method (63%). The use of antibiotics may have influenced the sensitivity of the quantitative method as the microorganisms present in the lumen are exposed to higher concentrations of antibiotics administered via the catheter

From inverted pendulum to N-link chain: inertial sensors-based assessment of movement kinematics and dynamics for functional evaluation and rehabilitation

Despite several clinical tests that have been developed to qualitatively describe complex motor tasks by functional testing, these methods often depend on clinicians' interpretation, experience and training, which make the assessment results inconsistent, without the precision required to objectively assess the effect of the rehabilitative intervention. A more detailed characterization is required to fully capture the various aspects of motor control and performance during complex movements of lower and upper limbs. The need for cost-effective and clinically applicable instrumented tests would enable quantitative assessment of performance on a subject-specific basis, overcoming the limitations due to the lack of objectiveness related to individual judgment, and possibly disclosing subtle alterations that are not clearly visible to the observer. Postural motion measurements at additional locations, such as lower and upper limbs and trunk, may be necessary in order to obtain information about the inter-segmental coordination during different functional tests involved in clinical practice. With these considerations in mind, this Thesis aims: i) to suggest a novel quantitative assessment tool for the kinematics and dynamics evaluation of a multi-link kinematic chain during several functional motor tasks (i.e. squat, sit-to-stand, postural sway), using one single-axis accelerometer per segment, ii) to present a novel quantitative technique for the upper limb joint kinematics estimation, considering a 3-link kinematic chain during the Fugl-Meyer Motor Assessment and using one inertial measurement unit per segment. The suggested methods could have several positive feedbacks from clinical practice. The use of objective biomechanical measurements, provided by inertial sensor-based technique, may help clinicians to: i) objectively track changes in motor ability, ii) provide timely feedback about the effectiveness of administered rehabilitation interventions, iii) enable intervention strategies to be modified or changed if found to be ineffective, and iv) speed up the experimental sessions when several subjects are asked to perform different functional tests.

Managing risk in information technology projects

There are several studies on managing risks in information technology (IT) projects. Most of the studies identify and prioritise risks through empirical research in order to suggest mitigating measures. Although they are important to clients for future projects, these studies fail to provide any framework for risk management from IT developers' perspective. Although a few studies introduced a framework of risk management in IT projects, most of them are presented from clients' perspectives and very little effort has been made to integrate this with the project management cycle. As IT developers absorb a considerable amount of risk, an integrated framework for managing risks in IT projects from developers' perspective is needed in order to ensure success in IT projects. The main objective of the paper is to develop a risk management framework for IT projects from the developers' perspective. This study uses a combined qualitative and quantitative technique with the active involvement of stakeholders in order to identify, analyse and respond to risks. The entire methodology has been explained using a case study on an information technology project in a public sector organisation in Barbados.

Managing risk in software development projects:a case study

Purpose - The main objective of the paper is to develop a risk management framework for software development projects from developers' perspective. Design/methodology/approach - This study uses a combined qualitative and quantitative technique with the active involvement of stakeholders in order to identify, analyze and respond to risks. The entire methodology has been explained using a case study on software development project in a public sector organization in Barbados. Findings - Analytical approach to managing risk in software development ensures effective delivery of projects to clients. Research limitations/implications - The proposed risk management framework has been applied to a single case. Practical implications - Software development projects are characterized by technical complexity, market and financial uncertainties and competent manpower availability. Therefore, successful project accomplishment depends on addressing those issues throughout the project phases. Effective risk management ensures the success of projects. Originality/value - There are several studies on managing risks in software development and information technology (IT) projects. Most of the studies identify and prioritize risks through empirical research in order to suggest mitigating measures. Although they are important to clients for future projects, these studies fail to provide any framework for risk management from software developers' perspective. Although a few studies introduced framework of risk management in software development, most of them are presented from clients' perspectives and very little effort has been made to integrate this with the software development cycle. As software developers absorb considerable amount of risks, an integrated framework for managing risks in software development from developers' perspective is needed. © Emerald Group Publishing Limited.

From traditional resource to global commodities: a comparison of Rhodiola species using NMR spectroscopy - metabolomics and HPTLC

The fast developing international trade of products based on traditional knowledge and their value chains has become an important aspect of the ethnopharmacological debate. The structure and diversity of value chains and their impact on the phytochemical composition of herbal medicinal products has been overlooked in the debate about quality problems in transnational trade. Different government policies and regulations governing trade in herbal medicinal products impact on such value chains. Medicinal Rhodiola species, including Rhodiola rosea L. and Rhodiola crenulata (Hook.f. & Thomson) H.Ohba, have been used widely in Europe and Asia as traditional herbal medicines with numerous claims for their therapeutic effects. Faced with resource depletion and environment destruction, R. rosea and R. crenulata are becoming endangered, making them more economically valuable to collectors and middlemen, and also increasing the risk of adulteration and low quality. We compare the phytochemical differences among Rhodiola raw materials available on the market to provide a practical method for Rhodiola authentication and the detection of potential adulterant compounds. Samples were collected from Europe and Asia and nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy coupled with multivariate analysis software and high performance thin layer chromatography techniques were used to analyse the samples. A method was developed to quantify the amount of adulterant species contained within mixtures. We compared the phytochemical composition of collected Rhodiola samples to authenticated samples. Rosavin and rosarin were mainly present in R. rosea whereas crenulatin was only present in R. crenulata. 30% of the Rhodiola samples purchased from the Chinese market were adulterated by other Rhodiola spp. Moreover, 7 % of the raw-material samples were not labelled satifactorily. The utilisation of both 1H-NMR and HPTLC methods provided an integrated analysis of the phytochemical differences and novel identification method for R. rosea and R. crenulata. Using 1H-NMR spectroscopy it was possible to quantify the presence of R. crenulata in admixtures with R. rosea. This quantitative technique could be used in the future to assess a variety of herbal drugs and products. This project also highlights the need to further study the links between producers and consumers in national and trans-national trade.

A avaliação da aprendizagem na escola Waldecy Corrêa: um estudo na terceira e quarta série do ensino fundamental I

O presente estudo, sobre avaliação de aprendizagens, apesar de ser abordado por outros autores de variadas formas, esboça-se aqui com o tema A Avaliação da Aprendizagem na Escola Waldecy Corrêa: um estudo na terceira e quarta série do ensino fundamental I que tem como finalidade uma análise teórica e prática acerca da avaliação no processo de ensino e aprendizagem na escola supracitada. Essa abordagem constitui-se de extrema relevância para o entendimento da temática, haja vista, que a avaliação da aprendizagem ser um assunto bastante discutido entre os teóricos que postularam um significado com o propósito de nortear a base conceituai sobre o tema em estudo. Para embasar teoricamente foram imprescindíveis as ideias produzidas por alguns autores como Luckesi, Hoffmann, Perrenoud, Sant’Anna, Saul, além das políticas públicas como a LDB\ PCN's2, a Sistemática de Avaliação do Estado do Amapá entre outros, que focalizam a importância desta temática. Embora a estimativa produzida na presente pesquisas se traduza em efeitos de mudança na forma de aplicar a avaliação da aprendizagem com a realidade analisada. Os procedimentos metodológicos envolveram tanto a técnica qualitativa - articulada com o estudo de caso envolvendo como instrumentos na coleta de dados as observações e entrevistas, bem como a quantitativa como tratamento das informações recolhidas pela aplicação dos questionários para obtenção de resultados em consonância com nossos objetivos. As informações obtidas por meio dos resultados revelaram tendencialmente que os investigados estão perpassando de uma concepção de avaliação seletiva para uma avaliação de processo, embora tenha se observado alguns contrapontos. Nesse sentido, a proposta é que o professor busque ampliar o seu entendimento acerca da avaliação para que possa promover uma nova cultura do verdadeiro sentido do que, como, quando e para que avaliar. Dessa forma, a avaliação da aprendizagem se manifestará objetivando uma ação reflexiva e emancipatória dos sujeitos envolvidos em sua processualização. ABSTRACT: ln spite of being approached in several ways by other authors, the present study here outlines itself with the theme "The Evaluation of the Learning at Waldecy Corrêa School: a study in the third and fourth year of the primary education" and its purpose is a theoretical and practical analysis about the evaluation in the process of teaching and learning at the aforesaid school. This approach is constituted of extreme relevance for the understanding of the thematic in as much as the evaluation is a subject discussed a lot among the theorists who postulate a meaning with the purpose of guiding conceptual basis on the theme studied. The ideas produced by some authors, such as Luckesi, Hoffmann, Perrenoud, Sant'Anna, Saul, besides the public politics like the LDB\ PCN's2, the systematic of evaluation of the State of Amapá, among others that focus on the importance of this thematic were indispensable to give it basis theoretically. Although the estimate produced in the present research is translated into effect of change in the way of applying the evaluation in the learning together with the reality analyzed. The methodological procedures have involved the qualitative technique - articulated with the study of cases having as the tools in the data collection the observations and interviews - as well as the quantitative technique as treatment of the information collected by applying the questionnaires for obtaining the outcomes in harmony with our goals. The information obtained by the results has revealed the tendency that the investigated students are changing from a conception of selective evaluation to an evaluation of process. Although we have observed some counterpoints. ln this sense, the proposal is that the teacher looks for enlarging his understanding about the evaluation so that he can promote a new culture of the true sense of "what", "how", "when" and ''what for" to evaluate. This way, the evaluation of learning will be made known by aiming at a reflexive and emancipating action of the subjects involved in their processing.